MLB Picks

Both teams enter this series eager to turn things around and get a much-needed win. Boston endured a tough home series, dropping 3 out of 4 games to Cleveland, while the Pirates had struggles of their own — being swept by the Mets and losing 4 out of their last 5 matchups.

Seeking to bounce back, the Red Sox will turn to right-hander Brayan Bello on the mound. Bello holds a 2-1 record with a 3.92 ERA this season. In his last outing against the Angels he pitched 5.1 innings, surrendering 2 runs while striking out 8. For the Pirates, Quinn Priester will be called up from Triple-A to start against the Red Sox. Priester has shown promise in Triple-A, showcasing a 3.95 ERA with 20 strikeouts and 5 walks in 13.2 innings. However, it’s worth noting that he struggled in 2023 for the Pirates — posting a 7.74 ERA with 36 strikeouts in 50 innings pitched.

While the Pirates have been slightly better at the plate than the Red Sox this season, today’s matchup will likely hinge on pitching performances. Bello’s tendency to not go deep into games may prompt Boston to rely on their bullpen once again. Given Priester’s past struggles, the Red Sox have the ability to take advantage early in this game and score enough runs to provide support to Bello and their bullpen. 

Red Sox ML at -105 available at time of publishing. Playable to -115.

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Spencer Turnbull has pitched very well with the Phillies since signing in the offseason, allowing only 3 earned runs in his first 15 innings with the squad. The right-hander has dealt with several injuries over the years but is currently healthy, and his revamped pitch mix is making life difficult for opposing hitters. Turnbull is utilizing a new sweeper 30.4% of the time, while still using his shorter slider 6.7% of the time. His fastball velocity is down from previous seasons, but a 6-pitch mix helps him keep opponents off balance. He currently ranks 71st percentile in ground-ball rate, 66th percentile in barrel rate and 83rd percentile in average exit velocity allowed. Turnbull draws a matchup against the Chicago White Sox, a team that ranks dead last in wOBA against right-handed pitching so far this season. Phillies relievers had the day off on Thursday in addition to a day off on Tuesday thanks to a complete game from Ranger Suarez. They should be well rested and able to shut down Chicago in the later innings.

Garrett Crochet will start for the White Sox in this matchup, marking his 5th appearance in this new role. The left-hander has been lights out so far, allowing only 4 walks while racking up 31 strikeouts in 22.2 innings of work. His 15.8% swinging strike rate is a very healthy number, and he has generated a 12.6% or higher mark in each of his outings so far. Crochet struggled a bit against the Reds, allowing 5 earned runs despite 10 strikeouts — but he was lethal against the Braves, Royals and Tigers in his first 3 outings. Crochet’s stat cast page is filled with dark red percentile bubbles, showcasing just how lethal he has been so far. He draws a Phillies offense that has vastly underperformed to begin the season. While they have been better against southpaw pitching, this still is not an advantageous matchup against a pitcher in good form. Chicago’s bullpen isn’t very good but is well rested and should be able to use its top relievers in the event of a close game. I like the under in this matchup.

Under 8 at -115 available at time of publishing. Playable to -120.

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The New York Yankees are 1 of 2 teams to reach 13 wins already, and they will be sending out Clarke Schmidt on the bump to try and keep the momentum going. Schmidt has had a solid start to the 2024 campaign, surrendering no more than 3 runs in a start. The righty’s 3.82 xERA and 3.81 xFIP are solid, but his 4.91 BB/9 is concerning. The good news is that Tampa Bay ranks 27th in walks drawn vs RHP (35). Schmidt should find success against a Rays lineup with the 5th-worst BB/K ratio in baseball. Furthermore, Tampa Bay is projected to start 7 right-handed batters in this one according to RotoWire, which should give Schmidt several favorable matchups.

Tampa Bay is sending left Tyler Alexander (6.46 ERA, 1.63 WHIP) out on the mound. While his baseline stats don’t jump off the screen, he has improved with every start this season and has dialed in his locations — limiting walks and unnecessary extra runs when a ball is put in play. His 4.27 xERA suggests that he is set for this positive regression to continue. This Yankees’ lineup has proven to be incredibly capable of lighting up the scoreboard, but all Alexander needs to do is keep the earned run count below 3 while Schmidt keeps doing what he’s been doing. With all things considered, I’m taking the under in this one.

Under 8.5 available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The Texas Rangers head to Atlanta to take on the Braves in a 3-game series, aiming to extend their latest winning streak. The Rangers secured 3 out of their last 4 games against the Tigers, while the Braves came into this series riding high after sweeping the Astros in a 3-game showdown — marking their fourth consecutive win overall. On the mound for the Rangers will be left-hander Andrew Heaney, who has faced some struggles this season — sitting at 0-2 with a 6.75 ERA over 12 innings pitched. Meanwhile, the Braves will counter with veteran left-hander Chris Sale. He comes in with a 1-1 record and a 4.58 ERA across 17.2 innings pitched.

The Braves boast an impressive lineup, leading the league in hitting across various categories with a team average of .294, OPS of .842 and a slugging percentage of .484. Comparatively, the Rangers hold a respectable .262 average, OPS of .735 and a slugging percentage of .399. However, the Braves face a slight disadvantage on the mound with a team ERA of 4.41, while the Rangers post a team ERA of 3.97. Considering the offensive firepower of both teams and the struggles of the starting pitchers so far this season, I’m leaning toward the over in today’s matchup.

Over 9.5 at +100 available at the time of publishing. Playable at that number.  

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Two AL Central Division foes meet for a second consecutive weekend series, this time in the Twin Cities after splitting their 4-game set last weekend in Detroit. In 1 of Minnesota’s 2 wins last week, right-hander Joe Ryan’s impressive 6-inning, 3-run, 12-strikeout performance helped the Twins eventually take down the Tigers 11-5 in extra innings. Save for ace Pablo Lopez, Ryan’s been the Twins’ best starter in the early going — sporting a 2.45 FIP with an elite 24:2 K-to-BB rate over 17.1 innings.

That gives Minnesota a major edge in the starting pitching department, as Detroit trots out shaky veteran righthander Jack Flaherty — who owns a 4.13 FIP with an alarming 20% home run to flyball rate. With winds expected to be blowing out around 20 mph to right center field, Flaherty’s tendency to yield the longball concerns me in the Tigers’ chances of earning a road win tonight. Add to that the fact that Detroit’s bullpen is a bit more taxed at the moment following yesterday’s 9-7 home loss to the Rangers — a day where the Twins were off — seemingly giving the Twins a favorable edge to emerge victorious.

Twins ML at -150 available at time of publishing. Playable to -165.

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Yariel Rodriguez showcased some promise in his MLB debut with the Toronto Blue Jays, striking out 6 of the 16 Rockies he faced after 10 strikeouts in 6.1 AAA innings. Rodriguez after the game stated, “I’ve been waiting for this moment my entire life. A lot of sacrifices, a lot of hard work. It was very, very emotional.” Despite these strong emotions, Rodriguez was effective in his time, allowing only 1 earned run on a solo shot. The expectation is that he will be stretched out further as the season progresses, but he does draw a tougher matchup than Colorado this time around. The San Diego Padres sit 9th in wOBA against right-handed pitching so far this season while producing a 113 wRC+ and the 4th lowest strikeout rate in MLB. This is quite opposite from the free-swinging, low-production Rockies lineup. It will be interesting to see how he performs as the league adapts to his stuff, especially considering his 4-seamer and slider accounted for nearly 85% of his pitch mix in that debut.

Matt Waldron won the final rotation spot for San Diego in spring training and has pitched well to begin the regular season. The right-handed knuckleballer has highlight pitches appear on PitchingNinja’s Twitter page seemingly every start, but he has been more than just a highlight factory so far. Waldron was shaky in his season debut against the Cardinals, allowing 9 hits and 4 earned runs, but has since found his form. He allowed only 1 earned run in 10.1 combined innings against the Giants and Dodgers in his last 2 outings. Waldron’s signature knuckleball receives 36.3% usage, but unlike other knuckleball pitchers Waldron also utilizes 4 more pitches at least 10% of the time. This type of pitch diversification helps his knuckleball play up, and opponents are hitting just .190 against with a 28.6% whiff rate this season. Toronto’s wRC+ against RHP is at 100, the league average mark. While I don’t see a ton of value in this game, I do lean toward a San Diego win at home.

Padres ML at -115 available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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Following a 0-5 start to the year, the New York Mets are arguably the hottest team in baseball — winning 10 of their last 13. Tonight’s contest might be the tallest task of the 2024 campaign as they take on the Los Angeles Dodgers on the road with Cy Young candidate Yoshinobu Yamamoto (4.50 ERA, 1.06 WHIP) on the mound. While that may seem daunting at first glance, Yamamoto isn’t an all-world destroyer who has come to the league to shut down teams every single game. He has proven he can be cracked, especially when he can’t rely on his strikeout ability — such as in tonight’s matchup against the Mets. New York has recorded the sixth-fewest strikeouts against RHP and ranks 3rd in BB/K ratio. Over the last week, New York ranks 7th with a solid 120 wRC+ compared to the Dodgers, who are down in 20th. Yamamoto holds an 86 Stuff+ on his fastball, which he tends to utilize a lot, allowing .554 xSLG and .407 xwOBA on the pitch through 4 starts. New York should have plenty of opportunities to put the ball in play.

While I have been slightly unimpressed by Yamamoto thus far based on his otherworldly expectations, the Mets’ Sean Manaea has been a pleasant surprise in 2024 with a 4.30 ERA and 3.47 FIP highlighted by his impressive 11.05 K/9. Manaea falls in the 96th percentile in extension and 71st percentile in Chase %, meaning it’s difficult for opposing hitters to locate the ball out of his hand. With all things considered, the Dodgers are the far superior lineup on paper — but this team is coming off a zero-run, series-losing performance against the Nationals and I see a tremendous amount of value on this surging Mets team at nearly +170. I’m rolling with the underdogs to get the win.

Mets ML at +165 available at time of publishing. Playable to +155.

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It is the battle of Scott Boras hold-outs on Friday night as Jordan Montgomery and Blake Snell take the mound for the Diamondbacks and Giants, respectively. The series kicked off on Thursday, with the Giants taking a 5-0 win on a night when the Snakes struggled to hit at all. Typically Oracle Park at night is a tough place to score, and Friday’s conditions will be cold by the bay — but I think this total is still too low. The pitching is likely going to be a mess, so this should be a good day for the bats. I am playing the over, especially while it is this low.

Let’s talk about these pitchers. Snell will be making his third appearance of the year; neither of the first 2 went well. He hasn’t reached 80 pitches yet, and his ERA is in the double-digits. Snell is walking people, as is customary for him, and he doesn’t look very Cy Young-like. Montgomery will be making his first start of the year and he likely won’t go deep into the game, either — nor do I expect a crisp start from him. Both guys are southpaws, and the D-Backs are hitting a league-leading .307 against lefties. The Giants are in the top third of the league against lefties, themselves. And the bullpens? Both have been plenty vulnerable in the first month and I figure both will have to cover a lot of innings on Friday. It seems to me like the conditions are good for scoring on Friday night. I am fading each starter and each bullpen.

Over 8 available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The Marlins and Cubs get the Friday slate started with an afternoon game at Wrigley Field. These teams were supposed to open their 4-game series on Thursday, but the rain had other plans. They will play a double-header on Saturday, but both starters from Thursday will simply push back a day. On Friday, the expected game total was set at 8 runs; on Friday it has swollen to 10.5. Wrigley is weather-sensitive, but that seems like a big difference. Friday will be cool (low 50s), and the wind looks to be blowing sideways rather than out, so the conditions are still pitcher friendly. I am going to play the under.

Playing the under is not without risk, especially given the pitching situation. First, Miami is going with A.J. Puk. He has struggled this season and is a lefty; the Cubs are hitting lefties better than any other team in the first month. The Cubs are starting Jameson Taillon, who is making his first start of the season. I don’t expect Taillon to go more than 80 or so pitches in his first start, but the Miami offense has been poor all season — so the Fish probably won’t punish him. Miami’s bullpen has been dreadful, too, but unless the Cubs cover most of the total by themselves, it is hard to imagine the lifeless Marlins’ offense pulling their weight in this one. I thought it odd that the books had this pitching matchup set for an 8-run total on Thursday, but maybe both guys can do enough to keep the game under control. I’ll take my chances on another under in an afternoon game.

Under 10.5 available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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