Kentucky Wildcats vs Missouri Tigers Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 03/12/26

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We’re on to the second round in the SEC Tournament, and a meeting between the Kentucky Wildcats and Missouri Tigers leads off the action in Nashville at 12:30 PM ET on SEC Network. The Tigers benefitted from a bye on Tuesday, while the Wildcats took care of business against LSU 87-82. Kentucky scored 1.24 points per possession and held an 11-point lead with just under 7 minutes to play, but they converted on only 27% of threes and failed to get to the window for those that laid the -7.5. 

These teams met just once this season – way back in early January in the second game on the conference calendar – and Missouri stole a win at Rupp Arena 73-68. The Wildcats held an 8-point lead with less than 5 minutes to play, but they couldn’t close it out. Their offensive showing was poor, as they converted on just 45.5% of twos and averaged just 1 point per possession. That said, Missouri wasn’t much better, and the Wildcats held the Tigers to just 4 offensive rebounds – which is typically one of their strengths.  

This is a tough game to project because both teams are relatively inconsistent. That said, Missouri has shown a much lower floor this season in losses to Notre Dame, Ole Miss and LSU, all of whom are outside the top 60 in KenPom’s rankings. As for the Wildcats, they haven’t lost to anyone outside the top 50. In fact, the only team they lost to outside the top 40 is Missouri. 

A couple things concern me about Missouri’s body of work in a tournament setting. Offensively, the Tigers are terrible from the free throw line, and they are even worse in the turnover department – sitting 14th and 16th in the SEC in those metrics, respectively. On the other end, Missouri has one of the worst three-point defenses in the country, ranking 302nd in three-point rate and 338th in three-point percentage allowed. Mind you, these numbers come against the 11th-rated strength of schedule in the SEC (46th-rated nationally). Compare those marks to Kentucky, who is more efficient both offensively and defensively despite a strength of schedule that rates 1st in the conference and 6th nationally. I like Kentucky here.

Kentucky vs Missouri prediction: Kentucky Wildcats -2.5 (-118) at the time of publishing. Playable to -4. 

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