TCU Horned Frogs vs Kansas Jayhawks Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 03/12/26

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The #6 seed TCU Horned Frogs are coming off a strong offensive performance against Oklahoma State, shooting 50.7% from the floor — something they’ll look to carry into this matchup against the #3 seed Kansas Jayhawks. TCU is playing some of its best basketball of the season right now, winning 9 of their last 10 games. Kansas, on the other hand, has been inconsistent, winning just 3 of their last 7 matchups. The last time these teams met, Kansas walked away with a 104-100 victory in overtime. Both offenses were very efficient, with Kansas shooting 52% and TCU at 47%. The big difference was Flory Bidunga’s presence inside, as he scored 16 points and 9 rebounds.

On the season, these teams were fairly even on paper. TCU ranks 10th in offense, averaging 78.6 points per game compared to Kansas 76.5. Defensively, Kansas holds the edge, allowing 69.3 points per game compared to TCU’s 71.7. Kansas enters this matchup well rested and is coming off an impressive 104-85 win over Kansas State to close out the regular season, which should give them some confidence heading into this tournament. TCU, however, has already played a game in this tournament and has a lot of momentum on their side. While Kansas holds the advantage in interior defense and rebounding, one explosive offensive performance doesn’t erase the inconsistency the Jayhawks have shown down the stretch. TCU has proven capable of competing with Kansas, and with the way the Horned Frogs have been playing lately, they’re more than capable of keeping this game close. 

TCU vs Kansas prediction: TCU Horned Frogs +5.5 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.