UCF Knights vs Arizona Wildcats Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 03/12/26

The Big 12 tournament gets set for the quarterfinal round on Thursday with a showdown between UCF and top-seeded Arizona. Few teams are playing better than Arizona heading into the postseason, and the Wildcats have bounced back nicely from an early February hiccup to the tune of 6 consecutive victories, with most of them coming by double digits. Tommy Lloyd’s team is excellent in all areas of the game, and the resume over the course of the season certainly speaks volumes as to how well the Wildcats have played. And while this has been a program defined by its offense over the last 5 years, Arizona is actually a defense-first operation this season (ranked 2nd in adjusted efficiency at KenPom). The Wildcats shoot fewer threes than any other power conference team and have won most of their games this season via an efficient offensive attack inside the arc, in addition to their dominance on the glass and on defense. While Arizona is deservedly a massive favorite in this game, I’m more inclined to look toward the total and target the under in this Big 12 clash.

Despite escaping with a victory over Cincinnati in overtime on Wednesday, UCF is still in the midst of a pretty poor run of form over the last 6 weeks. In fact, UCF is just 4-6 since February 1 and it’s hard to see their offense having much success against a top 5 defense in the nation, especially after the Knights just struggled to clear 65 points against Cincinnati in a game that went to overtime. The Bearcats did an excellent job of limiting the Knights’ scoring from beyond the 3-point arc, and as long as Arizona is disciplined in its perimeter defense on Thursday, I don’t expect UCF to suddenly turn things around from deep. With the total being this high, there isn’t a ton of room for error for either offense in a game that could see a few lulls in the scoring given the early start time and neutral site venue. The popular projection models indicate that this total is a touch inflated, and with that in mind, I’ll take the under while it’s still above 160.

UCF vs Arizona prediction: Under 161.5 available at time of publishing. Playable to 160

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