MLB Picks Today: Expert Predictions & Best Bets for Saturday, September 12, inc. Angels vs Nationals

The weekend is here and we have yet another jam-packed slate of MLB action to dive into. There are numerous games with playoff implications and several betting angles worth taking a look at. Let's discuss my 3 favorite bets for Saturday, September 12, while you can find the rest of our MLB picks for every remaining game this season.

MLB Best Bet: Washington Nationals vs Los Angeles Angels under 8 (-103)

Odds available at DraftKings sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -110.

My best bet in Friday’s game between the Washington Nationals and the Los Angeles Angels was a Cade Cavalli prop, but I am focused on the total in Saturday’s matchup. Walbert Urena is the scheduled starter for the Angels, as the right-hander is set to make his 25th start and 27th overall appearance of the season. Urena’s 131.1 innings have resulted in a 2.74 ERA with a solid 3.40 xERA behind it. He reminds me of a right-handed Framber Valdez from Framber’s early days in Houston. His ground-ball rate and overall batted-ball metrics are tremendous. Once he figures out his command, Urena can become an even more lethal option in the Angels’ rotation. 

Andrew Alvarez is set to start Saturday’s game for the Nationals, marking his 23rd appearance and 15th start of the year, and the southpaw draws a favorable matchup against an Angels lineup that struggles mightily against left-handed pitching. Alvarez has a 3.60 ERA through 95 innings pitched. His 4.36 xERA is a less impressive mark, but there are favorable attributes to Alvarez’s game. An 84th-percentile ground-ball rate with league average strikeout metrics is a solid foundation, and he enters this game in solid form. Alvarez posted a 2.45 ERA across 33 August innings. He was so-so in his first September start against the Dodgers, but I favor the under in this game, nonetheless.

MLB Best Bet: Walbert Urena (LAA) Under 2.5 earned runs allowed (-153)

Odds available at DraftKings sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -165.

Walbert Urena is a main reason for my bet on the total in Saturday’s game between the Nationals and Angels, but I also want to back him in the prop market. His recent form has been eye opening in terms of his potential and long-term outlook for this Angels organization. Urena was able to control the zone against the Pirates in his last outing, issuing just one walk across eight efficient innings of one-run ball. That start followed seven innings of one-run ball with zero walks allowed against the Yankees. Oh, and he generated 15 and 10 ground balls in those respective starts. The Nationals have some batters willing to draw a fourth ball, but overall, their lineup is lackluster against right-handed pitching of late. In the last 30 days against righties, they sit 25th in wOBA with an81 wRC+.

Urena faced the second-most batters of any start this year in his last outing, but he also got five full days of rest in between starts. He should have a fresh arm with momentum and confidence behind him. Overall, in his 24 starts, the right-hander has remained under 2.5 earned runs 17 times. Now in the best form of his season against an attackable lineup, I am more than willing to double up with Urena Saturday.

MLB Best Bet: Boston Red Sox -1.5 over Kansas City Royals (+112)

Odds available at FanDuel sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to +105.

Randy Dobnak generates ample ground-ball outs and has a solid 2.54 ERA through 63.2 innings this season. He has six innings of one-run ball under his belt in his last start against the Blue Jays, and his performance has been a pleasant surprise in the Royals rotation since the beginning of July. The complements end there for me, however, as a soft-tossing pitch-to-contact arm is not quite the type of pitcher I prefer betting on. His ERA is shadowed by a far worse 4.79 mark, largely due to a 40.3% hard-hit rate and a non-existent strikeout profile. He is likely best served as a long-relief option or in a swingman role long term. Boston is in good form against righties of late, and I expect them to do some damage in this spot.

Ranger Suarez is set to make his 26th start of the year for the Red Sox. He missed some time in the middle of July but otherwise has been a staple of this Boston starting rotation. Suarez has 130.2 innings under his belt and delivered seven scoreless frames in his last start against an Orioles team that can be shaky against southpaw pitching. Kansas City has been far worse against left-handed pitching compared to their production against righties of late. While I do expect some runs from both sides, I expect the Red Sox to win this game by margin.

Get our full Red Sox vs Royals prediction