MLB Picks Today: Expert Predictions & Best Bets for Sunday, September 13, inc. Blue Jays vs Orioles
Week 1 of the NFL regular season is here but we still have a loaded slate of MLB action worth paying attention to. There are countless betting angles and intriguing storylines remaining in the final few weeks of regular season play, so let's dive in and discuss my 3 favorite bets for Sunday.
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MLB Best Bet: Toronto Blue Jays ML (-148) over the Baltimore Orioles
Odds available at FanDuel sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -160 odds.
Dylan Cease is the scheduled starter for Toronto in this matchup, and he has had a terrific debut season in Toronto, posting a 2.40 ERA and 2.78 xERA through his first 27 starts. Those 27 starts have spanned a combined 161.1 innings, as the right-hander has improved his efficiency. His last start on the road against the Athletics was not his best performance of the year, but his previous four outings had combined for just four total earned runs allowed. Baltimore ranks just 28th in wOBA with an 83 wRC+ against right-handed pitching in the last 30 days, so I expect a strong outing from Cease Sunday.
Trevor Rogers is set to make his 28th start of the season for Baltimore. The southpaw hurler has a 4.15 ERA this season but has a better 3.61 xERA behind it. Rogers has pitched well over the last couple months after a slower start to his 2026 campaign, but the lefty draws a tough matchup against a Blue Jays lineup that is seeing LHP well. In the last 30 days against southpaw pitchers, Toronto sits 8th in wOBA with a 117 wRC+. Toronto had two home runs and four total runs scored off Rogers in their first matchup.
MLB Best Bet: Cincinnati Reds vs Milwaukee Brewers over 8 (-108)
Odds available at DraftKings sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -115 odds.
I expect runs from both sides in Sunday’s matchup between the Milwaukee Brewers and the Cincinnati Reds. Chase Burns is the scheduled starter for the Reds, but his leash is expected to be heavily shortened in this start. Burns saw his workload reduced in his last outing, making a start on seven full days of rest and tossing just three innings to 10 batters faced. He could pitch well in his brief time today, but he draws a tough matchup against a Brewers lineup ranking second in wOBA with a 128 wRC+ against right-handed pitching in the last 30 days. Even if Cincinnati rolls with lefty relievers, Milwaukee is ninth in wOBA with a 113 wRC+ against lefties in that span.
Robert Gasser is set to start this game for the Brewers, marking his 19th appearance and 18th start of the year. Milwaukee’s starter is a decent tool in their pitching stable, but he is not one of the tougher Brewer pitchers to score off of. Cincinnati has been crushing left-handed pitching in the last 30 days, ranking second in wOBA with a 126 wRC+ in that stretch of play. Gasser allowed a home run and three total runs in their first matchup, so I expect enough runs today to surpass the posted game total.
Here's our full Reds vs Brewers prediction
MLB Best Bet: Payton Tolle (BOS) over 6.5 strikeouts recorded (+114)
Odds available at DraftKings sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to +100 odds.
Payton Tolle is one of my favorite pitchers to bet on, and Sunday I will bet on him via the strikeout market. Tolle has amassed 159 strikeouts in 137 innings during his first full season with the MLB club. His 89th percentile K% is the product of a 95th percentile chase rate and a 70th percentile whiff rate. Tolle is a strikeout machine who registered 12 of them in his last start against the Orioles. I backed Tolle in that start and am willing to do so again Sunday against the Kansas City Royals.
Kansas City ranks just 19th in wOBA with an 89 wRC+ against lefties within the last 30 days of play. The Royals are striking out at a 23.2% clip during that sample as well. Tolle has yet to face the Royals this season and no active Kansas City batter has faced him at the MLB level. This should favor Tolle, especially the first time through the order, and at plus money I have a hard time passing him the over on his 6.5 strikeout prop.
Get our full Royals vs Red Sox prediction
Sunday MLB Picks
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