Colorado Rockies vs Arizona Diamondbacks Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 05/24/26

It’s been a tightly contested series in the desert, where the Arizona Diamondbacks lead 2 games to 1 ahead of Sunday’s Game 4. Oddly enough, each of the previous games in this series were determined by a 1-run margin.

Colorado will send Jose Quintana to the mound, a veteran left-handed pitcher that has struggled with command and strikeout upside this year. In 39.2 innings, Quintana has just 20 strikeouts to 17 walks, while he’s yielded at least 5 hits in each of his 4 May starts. As for the Diamondbacks, they will hand the ball to Ryne Nelson, who has way more strikeout upside but has struggled with control and run suppression for much of the year. That said, Nelson’s May ERA sits at 2.73, while he’s pitched into the 7th inning in 3 straight starts of 95 or fewer pitches. 

We’ve liked the over in almost every game this series, and while it hasn’t quite come to fruition, both teams are hitting the ball well. It’s just a matter of getting runners across the plate. For reference, there were 16 combined runners left on base in Saturday’s 5-4 Arizona win, while the teams went a combined 3-of-20 with runners in scoring position, and yet the total pushed at 9. I can’t help but go right back to the well here, especially with the expectation that Arizona can light up Quintana – as they are one of the best hitting teams in the league against left-handed pitchers. I lean to Arizona to win, but with a heavily juiced money line, I prefer to take the over.

Rockies vs Diamondbacks prediction: Over 9.5 (+102) at the time of publishing. Playable to -105. 

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