Best MLB player prop for Tuesday's slate: Keller can be trusted

Brad Keller MLB player prop
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John Hyslop

MLB· 1 month ago

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You can't win if you don't bet. That's a fact. I've been betting games for over 20 years and writing about it for the past 10. If there's a game, there's an angle. We just have to find it.

Before everyone gets mad at me for only having one MLB player prop again today — hear me out. I had a list of like five guys but each had one fatal flaw. They don’t strike anyone out. The great Vladimir Gutierrez of the Cincinnati Reds gets the Chicago Cubs today at 4.5 +105. The only problem is he’s got 1 strikeout in his last 10 innings. Jose Suarez of the Los Angeles Angels is sitting at 4.5 +110 but even after getting stretched out a little after the break he still isn’t a 5 strikeout-a-game guy. The Tigers’ Tyler Alexander looks fun at 3.5 +140 but are we really trusting our Tuesday night to Tyler Alexander? God no. There’s only one guy on this slate that I trust to give us a good run and I’m putting the heater on the line for him. Let’s hope I’m right.

On top of this article, you should definitely check out our experts’ picks on all of the MLB action today. It’s just a smart thing to do. Also, bets can be added to the card (especially today), so why not follow me on Twitter in case we get some last-second action? It just makes sense.

Brad Keller over 4.5 strikeouts (-105)

Line available at DraftKings at time of publishing. * BetMGM has 3.5 -155 if you want to go that route.

Anytime you bet an MLB player prop you’re pretty much on an island. Either your guy does well or you lose so you need someone you can trust. It’s absolutely insane to say that about Brad Keller — borderline reckless even — but I think we can trust him tonight. At 4.5 -105 at DraftKings right now, the price is right on him. You could always wimp out and go over 3.5 -155 at BetMGM, but that is way too expensive for me.

I actually love Brad Keller because of the experience he gives his backers. He could give up 8 runs in the first inning or he could whiff 9 guys. He has amazing range but lately “good Brad” has been showing up as he’s struck out at least 6 guys in each of his last 3 starts. Keller has also gone over this number in each of his last 2 starts against the White Sox. That’s a good start.

For all the good the White Sox do at the plate, they still strikeout enough to be targeted. On the season they’ve fanned 875 times in 3257 at-bats so they sit down like everyone else. The starter in each of their last 4 games has struck out at least 5 of them so there is that too.

I wish we had Yasmani Grandal and Nick Madrigal in the lineup since Keller victimized them last time but we won’t. The good news is, Keller has whiffed almost everyone that the White Sox can send to the plate tonight so we don’t have to take advantage of scrubs. As crazy as it sounds, this is my favorite MLB player prop of the night.

Be sure to check out our full game preview for Chicago White Sox vs Kansas City Royals

Pickswise is the home of free MLB picks and predictions. Make sure to also check out our MLB parlays and MLB prop bets tabs for more expert picks.

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