We nailed our Davis Martin strikeout ladder and White Sox ML bets on Friday but fell short with Rangers ML. It was still a good day of baseball betting, and I look for that to continue on Sunday. Let’s not waste any time and get right into my 3 favorite bets for Sunday’s MLB slate, while you can always get our MLB predictions for EVERY game throughout the season.
MLB Best Bet: San Diego Padres ML (-162) over The Athletics
Odds available at FanDuel sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -170.
Michael King is not perfect, ranking 27th percentile in walk rate and 33rd percentile in barrel rate, but he is both a very effective starting option for San Diego and my preferred starter in today’s game against the Athletics. King has a 2.31 ERA through his first 58.1 innings of work for the Padres, as the right-hander earns a healthy rate of strikeouts and ground balls — which helps limit bad innings. He is also in terrific form having tossed 7 scoreless frames against the Dodgers in his last start, while it helps that he has a historically talented bullpen behind him.
I expect King to exit his start with a lead today, as his offense should be able to produce against Luis Medina in support. Medina struggled mightily in a starting role with the Athletics in 2023 and 2024. He has been more successful in a relief role this season, but I am still not a fan of his command nor his batted-ball profile. He shouldn’t go too long in this game as the opener, and we could see Jacob Lopez as the bulk reliever. Regardless of the Athletics pitching plan, San Diego holds the pitching edge in this matchup, and I side with them at current pricing.
MLB Best Bet: Michael King (SDP) over 17.5 outs recorded (-142)
Odds available at DraftKings sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -160.
Continuing in the Padres vs. Athletics matchup, I want to back King in the props market. His strikeout prop of 5.5 is enticing, but I find a larger edge in his outs recorded market on Sunday. King has exceeded his 17.5 outs recorded prop in 6 of his first 10 starts this season, and his matchup today presents well for his 7th long outing of the year.
The Athletics have been a different lineup against right-handed pitching when at home compared to when on the road. At home, they sport a league-low 18.4% strikeout rate and record the 5th-lowest ground-ball rate at 38.5%. When they go on the road, their strikeout rate spikes to 22.6%. Even more astonishing is their 47.2% ground-ball rate on the road, which is the 2nd-highest mark in baseball.
This plays right into King’s strengths. King enters Sunday ranking 74th percentile in strikeout rate and 81st percentile in ground-ball percentage. The Athletics average the 4th-fewest pitches per plate appearance as a lineup this season, which should help King’s efficiency in this start. I also appreciate wind blowing in around 8 MPH in what is already a pitcher-friendly park. Look for at least 6 strong frames from King in this outing.
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MLB Best Bet: Noah Schultz (CWS) under 2.5 earned runs allowed (-155)
Odds available at BetMGM sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -165.
The handicap here is simple: Noah Schultz is left-handed, and San Francisco is not very good against lefties. This is a spot I had circled coming into this weekend, and I am happy to get a playable price on his earned runs prop on Sunday. Schultz enters play with a 4.93 ERA in his first 34.2 innings of work, as he has allowed 3 or more earned runs in 3 straight starts — including 7 earned runs to the Angels of all lineups. He is not perfect, and neither are his underlying metrics.
Still, Schultz is a talented prospect with a funky delivery, and I expect 5 innings of 2-run ball on Sunday. The southpaw hurler has had 3 very strong outings in his first 7 starts. His first of the bunch was 5 innings of 1-run ball with 6 strikeouts on the road against the Athletics. His next start was 6 innings of 2-run ball with 8 strikeouts against a Nationals lineup ranking 2nd in wOBA against lefties this season. Then, the very next start was on the road in San Diego, tossing 6 innings of scoreless ball despite just 2 strikeouts.
That start in San Diego presents similarly to his start today given the pitcher-friendly conditions. Oracle Park in San Francisco is another very pitcher-friendly park, and I believe it is an environment he will succeed in today. He faces a Giants lineup ranking 26th in wOBA against southpaw pitching in 2026. Furthermore, they walk at the 2nd-lowest rate and have the 8th-highest ground-ball rate.
The Giants have faced 9 non-opener left-handed starting pitchers this season. Among that sample, 8 have allowed 2 or fewer earned runs with 6 of them allowing 1 0r 0. With an out recorded prop of 15.5 juiced heavily towards the under I don’t expect an overly long leash for Schultz in this game.
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