Against the Spread Pick
The Indianapolis Colts will kickoff the post-Andrew Luck era here on the road against the Los Angeles Chargers. Jacoby Brissett will make his highly anticipated 2019 debut just days after signing a new two-year deal to be Indy’s leader. Oddsmakers have the Colts as 6.5 point underdogs, and I think they’ll be able to cover that spread relatively easily. Brissett has been practicing with the first-team all offseason as Luck was sidelined, so it’s not like he’s being suddenly thrust into the starting role with no preparation. Brissett looked pretty capable during his 2017 starts, and that was with a much worse coaching staff and supporting cast around him. The Chargers are also pretty banged up here, as they’ll be missing star safety Derwin James and left tackle Russell Okung. Los Angeles plays in a stadium that seats less than 30,000 people, so it’s not like they have much of a home-field advantage to speak of. Take the points here.
Over Under Pick
I also like the under a lot here. Brissett is competent, but he’s not anything special under center. This Colts defense took huge strides last year under defensive coordinator Matt Eberflus, and they have a lot of intriguing young talent. Second-year player Darius Leonard is already one of the best linebackers in the league, and the Chargers’ running game will be a lot worse without Melvin Gordon in the backfield as he continues his holdout. Los Angeles’ offensive line is quietly among the worst in the entire league, and I think both teams will get after the opposing quarterback here.