Against the Spread Pick
An AFC North rivalry game with huge playoff implications here at the Baltimore Ravens host the Pittsburgh Steelers. If Pittsburgh wins this game and Tennessee loses to Houston, then they make the playoffs. The Steelers got a huge boost this past week, when the Ravens clinched the top seed in the AFC and announced they'd be resting most of their key guys for this one. Lamar Jackson won't be playing here, which means Robert Griffin III gets the start at quarterback. It might seem like Baltimore isn't trying too hard to win this one and oddsmakers have certainly accounted for that, but I think there's been an overreaction. Pittsburgh is a mess right now, and right after benching Devlin Hodges they are forced to start him again because of the injury to Mason Rudolph. The Steelers will obviously be motivated to win this one, but it won't end up mattering. They've now lost two straight games, and have looked horrendous both times. They've scored only 10 points in back-to-back weeks and that isn't going to be anywhere near enough to beat the Ravens, even without Jackson playing. Getting Baltimore as a home underdog presents a lot of value.
Over Under Pick
I also think the under is worth a play here. Like I mentioned above Pittsburgh has failed to top ten points in back to back weeks, and the coaching staff obviously doesn't trust Hodges. They're going to be extremely cautious on offense, and will try to rely on their elite defense to carry them to victory. It's been a long time since Griffin has played a meaningful game, so he should be pretty rusty here. Ravens coach John Harbaugh has also hinted rookie Trace McSorely could get into the game, which would be his first-ever action. This one should be pretty ugly