Against the Spread Pick
A pivotal AFC South battle here with massive playoff implications as the Houston Texans host the Tennessee Titans. If Tennessee wins this game, then they are into the playoffs. Houston has already clinched the division, but Bill O'Brien has insisted he is going to play his starters and play to win. Oddsmakers clearly don't take him too seriously, as they've installed Tennessee as a significant road favorite here. I think that's a mistake, as the Texans shouldn't be catching more than a field goal here if Deshaun Watson is playing. I think Houston will revel in the chance to knock the Titans out of the playoffs, and there's still a chance that Houston can win the three-seed. I have never really bought into this Tennessee resurgence, and I think the Ryan Tannehill honeymoon period is over. Tennessee's defense is very weak, and they just got shredded while giving up 38 points to the Saints this past week.
Over Under Pick
The under also makes a lot of sense here. Houston is going to be looking ahead to the postseason and they won't want to put anything on film for their playoff opponent, so expect them to be very conservative on offense. This game is everything for Tennessee, so we should see an all-out effort from their defense here. When these teams played just a couple of weeks ago it wasn't the shootout that many expected, and there were only 21 points total after the first three quarters. This game is going to be even more intense and should have a playoff-like feel to it, so I'm expecting another low-scoring affair. It's also possible that O'Brien decides to pull his offensive starters at some point.