Against the Spread Pick
AFC Championship game here as the Kansas City Chiefs host the Tennessee Titans. After falling behind big early on Kansas City dominated in the final three quarters against the Texans, and I think they keep that momentum rolling into this one. Tennessee was able to beat Baltimore because they got out to an early lead which neutralized the Ravens’ running attack, but they won’t be so lucky here. Even if they once again strike first, the Chiefs have a potent enough passing game to make up any deficit in a hurry. Patrick Mahomes is still the best quarterback in the league, and he showed it this past week. Ryan Tannehill hasn’t done anything, throwing for fewer than 90 yards in each of his two playoff starts. Tennessee has been getting by on the strength of their defense, but that isn’t going to cut it here. The Titans have a very exploitable secondary, and Mahomes is going to torch it. Kansas City is going to win this one, and it isn’t going to be close.
Over Under Pick
I also think the under makes some sense here, because I don’t see Tennessee doing much scoring at all. Tennessee’s defense has played very well, limiting their opponents to only 25 total points through their first two playoff games. Tannehill hasn’t even topped 15 attempts through those two games, and they’re going to be running the ball a ton once again here. Unfortunately for them, I don’t think they’re going to have as much success. I’ve been high on this Chiefs defense all season long, and they are a lot better than people realize. I think the Chiefs will get up big early on here, and they will be content to squat on their lead in the second half. I’m not expecting the same type of shootout we saw at Arrowhead in the divisional round.