NFL Week 8 Picks Against The Spread & Straight Up For 2019

WAS Redskins +15.5 Point Spread

-116

Under 42.0 Game Totals

-111

Against the Spread Pick

Thursday Night Football here as the Minnesota Vikings will host the Washington Redskins. For a few reasons, there’s value on Washington. The Vikings have been hot recently, and now is the time to sell at the top of the market. Quietly, Washington’s defense has been playing really well since Jay Gruden got fired and Bill Callahan took over as interim coach. The unit looks rejuvenated, and they held Jimmy Garoppolo and the 49ers to just nine points last week. Kirk Cousins has been playing his best ball in years the past few weeks, but he’ll be without top receiver Adam Thielen in this one after Thielen went down with a hamstring injury in their win over the Lions. Both of these teams like to play with old-fashioned styles, which will limit the number of possessions in this game drastically. As such, a spread of over two touchdowns is inflated.

Over Under Pick

The under also makes a lot of sense here. Washington’s offensive struggles are well-documented, and they just failed to score a single point in their loss to the 49ers. Case Keenum isn’t cutting it under center, and they have one of the worst offensive lines in the league. Callahan has gone to an extremely old-school approach, and loves running it for three yards and a cloud of dust as much as possible. Minnesota is also a run-first team, which will be especially true here without Thielen. Cousins will regress some against an underrated Redskins defense, and the Vikings will be content to play ball control and run out the clock in this one.

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Sun, Oct 27th - 1:00pm ET:
Seattle Seahawks @ Atlanta Falcons

Seattle Seahawks

Atlanta Falcons

SEA Seahawks -8.0 Point Spread

-116

Over 51.0 Game Totals

-111

Against the Spread Pick

The Atlanta Falcons will be without Matt Ryan under center here for the first time in a while as they host the Seattle Seahawks. I’m not particularly high on this Seattle team, but this one isn’t going to be close. Atlanta was already looking lifeless, and now they’re going to be without their leader which should just deflate them further. Dan Quinn’s seat is scorching hot, and he could be fired any week now. Seattle is going to be hungry coming off their loss to the Ravens, while the Falcons are completely demoralized at 1-6. Matt Schaub is filling in under center, which should be a disaster. The washed-up journeyman is 38 now, and he hasn’t started a game since 2015. Schaub hasn’t been decent since 2012, and he isn’t going to put up much of a fight here. Russell Wilson will roll, and the Seahawks are going to win this one by multiple scores.

Over Under Pick

The over also makes some sense here. The Seahawks should have no trouble scoring on Atlanta’s leage-worst defense that is getting shredded by just about everybody this season. Wilson should be in for a huge game, and I think the Seahawks could easily drop 40 here. Seattle will get up big early on, which will cause Atlanta to abandon the run and start chucking the ball. Schaub has nothing to lose, so I think he’ll let it rip and be aggressive here. This one is going to be ugly, but it should be pretty high-scoring.

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Sun, Oct 27th - 1:00pm ET:
Denver Broncos @ Indianapolis Colts

Denver Broncos

Indianapolis Colts

IND Colts -5.5 Point Spread

-111

Over 43.5 Game Totals

-111

Against The Spread Pick

Even though the Denver Broncos have had plenty of time to prepare for this game (they last played a Thursday night game against the Chiefs) it may come back and bite them as the teams morale seems to be heading down the toilet. The Broncos have traded away Emmanuel Sanders to the San Francisco 49ers and the Broncos already awful offense has hit the fan. Denver has the 4th worst offense in the league — they are only scoring 16.0 points per game. One of the reasons for that is the offensive line, which allowed nine sacks to a Chiefs’ defense which had 11 sacks for the whole season. The Broncos were unable to take down the Chiefs without Patrick Mahomes, and now they take on the Colts who have been rolling without Andrew Luck. New star quarterback Jacoby Brissett completed 26 of his 39 throws for 321 yards, four touchdowns, and zero interceptions to spark a 30-23 win over the Texans. This is going to be a blowout and fast. Nail in the coffin for the Broncos season as the Colts win BIG.

Over Under Pick

The Colts are going to score without a problem on Sunday so that should not be an issue in this Over-Under pick. The real question is can the Broncos can score against the Colts? Indianapolis has allowed 78 total points at home this season or 26 points per game. This is a do-or-die moment for the Denver Broncos as Joe Flacco might be heading to the bench after this game. Expect a strong Broncos offense coming out of the gate, but for it to slow down late in the game just like the Texans offense last week against the Colts. The total has gone OVER in 4 of Indianapolis’ last 5 games played in week 8 as I’m leaning that way as well. The total has gone OVER in 6 of Denver’s last 7 games when playing on the road against Indianapolis. Take the Over here.

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Sun, Oct 27th - 1:00pm ET:
Philadelphia Eagles @ Buffalo Bills

Philadelphia Eagles

Buffalo Bills

PHI Eagles +1.5 Point Spread

-111

Over 43.0 Game Totals

-111

Against the Spread Pick

The Philadelphia Eagles are coming off an embarrassing loss to the Cowboys as they enter Buffalo to take on the Bills. This is the most adversity the Eagles have faced in quite some time, and it’ll be very interesting to see how they respond. The Bills are sitting at 5-1, but they’re pretty lucky to have gotten there as they have played a very weak schedule. Four of their five wins are against the Bengals, Jets, Giants, and Dolphins, so I’m not that impressed. Just this past week they very nearly lost to Miami, the worst team in the league. This is a must-win game for the Eagles where we are going to see an all-out effort, while the Bills are sitting pretty and might get a bit complacent for this one. Doug Peterson is a great coach and you can bet that he’s going to have his guys prepared for this pivotal game. Philadelphia is finally starting to get a bit healthier and it’s going to show in this one. They will cover the short spread and win this game outright as well.

Over Under Pick

I’m also making a small play on the over here. Buffalo’s defense has rightly gotten a lot of praise so far this season, but they aren’t as good as it might seem if you were just looking at their points allowed. Besides their one game against Tom Brady, which they lost, they have played almost exclusively the weakest offenses in the league. This is a step up in class for them and I think we see them take a step back accordingly. The Eagles might have the most injured defense in the league and they just got torched by the Cowboys this past week, so Josh Allen should be able to have some success here as well.

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Sun, Oct 27th - 1:00pm ET:
Los Angeles Chargers @ Chicago Bears

Los Angeles Chargers

Chicago Bears

LA Chargers +4.0 Point Spread

-111

Under 40.5 Game Totals

-111

Against the Spread Pick

AFC vs. NFC here as the Chicago Bears host the Los Angeles Chargers. Both teams have fallen on hard times recently, and each side could really use a win. Los Angeles is coming off a heartbreaking last-second loss to the Titans while the Bears got embarrassed by the Saints in Week 7. For a few reasons, I love the Chargers here. Despite having a 2-5 record, their point differential on the year is actually only -1. That shows they’ve been getting really unlucky, and I think their fortune is bound to reverse itself soon. They still have a lot of talent and now that guys like Hunter Henry are starting to return to the lineup, we should see improvement soon. The Bears are an absolute mess right now and Mitchell Trubisky clearly isn’t good enough to be a starting quarterback in this league. Chicago’s defense quietly hasn’t been anywhere near as good as it was last year and they’re sorely missing Akiem Hicks in the middle of their defense, who is still sidelined with an elbow injury. Philip Rivers is a master of getting the ball out quickly, so I don’t think the Bears’ pass-rush will be able to do too much here.

Over Under Pick

The under also makes a lot of sense in this spot. It’s hard to describe just how bad Trubisky has been recently, and I don’t think he’s going to have much success with Joey Bosa in his face all day long. The coaching staff continues to simplify things for Trubisky, and he continues to get worse with passing each week. Neither side has much of a ground game to speak of at the moment, and I expect both quarterbacks to be under pressure because of their underwhelming offensive lines. The Chargers’ offense has looked out of sync for weeks now, and I’m not sure it’s going to get much better suddenly here on the road against a defense that is still quite tough.

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Sun, Oct 27th - 1:00pm ET:
New York Giants @ Detroit Lions

New York Giants

Detroit Lions

DET Lions -7.0 Point Spread

+100

Over 49.5 Game Totals

-111

Against The Spread Pick

The New York Giants and QB Danny Dimes are looking to end their losing streak as they head into Detroit to take on the Lions. For the Lions, they are off heartbreaking losses against the Kansas City Chiefs, Green Bay Packers and Minnesota Vikings as they look to finally make the home fans happy on Sunday. The odds of that happiness are extremely high as quarterback Matthew Stafford is finding his groove and faces one of the worst secondaries in the league. In the past three games against the Chiefs, Pack and Vikes Stafford has thrown for an average of 306.67 passing yards, 2.3 touchdowns, and a 104.63 QB rating. Stafford is on a roll and with the Lions most likely being out of the running game with Kerryon Johnson getting injured last week, expect the Lions to throw it lots against a defense that allows 257 yards through the air. The Lions are 7-2 ATS in their last nine home games against teams with losing records and the Giants fit perfectly in that trend. Expect Stafford and the Lions to rise to the occasion at home and get a much needed big win. Take the Lions

Over Under Pick

With the Lions passing the ball more or less on every single down, do not expect a lot of time being taken off the clock. Both teams will have plenty of opportunities to run plays with this type of pass-happy offense. On the flip side, the Giants offense is finally starting to click as Daniel Jones and Saquon Barkley gel. With the Lions losing top cornerback Darius Slay due to injury in last week’s loss, expect the Giants to open up the playbook to get Jones comfortable in the dome. Both defenses are a bit choppy, especially the Giants who have allowed 27 or more points in all but one game. This is going to be a high scoring game without a doubt and the Over is a great play here. The total has gone OVER in the Giants’ last 5 road games.

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Sun, Oct 27th - 1:00pm ET:
Cincinnati Bengals @ Los Angeles Rams

Cincinnati Bengals

Los Angeles Rams

LA Rams -12.5 Point Spread

-111

Under 48.5 Game Totals

-111

Against The Spread Pick

The Cincinnati Bengals are ready to head to London as they take on the Los Angeles Rams, who seem to be going in the right direction now. The Rams broke a three-game losing streak, (the first in the McVay era) with a much-needed 37-10 win last week against the woeful Falcons. After throwing for 78 yards against the 49ers, Jared Goff was able to pick apart the Falcons defense dropping 268 yards through the air, and three total touchdowns. Expect more of the same here as the Rams’ offense should be able to click throughout the whole game against a Bengals team that has yet to win a game and allows 26.5 points per game. This is a high betting line, but at the moment you have to side with the LA Rams. They are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a double-digit favorite and are dropping an average of 21.5 points per game when they head to London. Los Angeles has also allowed only five points per game in London and it should be the same here. Take the Rams. I would not touch the Bengals until it reaches +17, if it does.

Over Under Pick

The Rams come into this game having back-to-back weeks of holding their opponents to under 100 yards rushing. Bengal running back Joe Mixon might be in for a long game here. It’s been a long season so far for Mixon has through seven games he has 254 rushing yards and ZERO rushing touchdowns. The Rams’ defense will not lift their foot off the gas as Aaron Donald and company will keep the Bengals in check. On the flip side, the Bengals have the worst rush defense in the league allowing 189 rushing yards per game. Do not expect Goff to air it out in this one as the Rams are finally going to have a running attack here. Expect over 35 rushes from the Rams as they control the clock. The total has gone UNDER in the Bengals’ last 4 straight games vs the Rams. Take the Under with confidence here.

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Sun, Oct 27th - 1:00pm ET:
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Tennessee Titans

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Tennessee Titans

TB Buccaneers +2.5 Point Spread

-111

Over 46.0 Game Totals

-105

Against The Spread Pick

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are coming back well-rested from a bye week as they get ready to travel once again, heading to Tennessee to take on the Titans. The Titans’ move to start quarterback Ryan Tannehill last time out was successful. He threw for 312 yards and two touchdowns to lead Tennessee to a 23-20 win over the Chargers. Even though the Titans should have lost the game absent a fumble by Melvin Gordon on the one-yard line, their offense was way better than in previous weeks. The Titans had scored 38 points in their previous four games combined with Marcus Mariota under center and should past that in two weeks of Tannehill starting. Everything was lining up for the Titans to blow out the Buccaneers, but the injury bug hit the Titans hard last week. Tennessee lost right tackle Jack Conklin, right guard Nate Davis, and cornerback Adoree Jackson. Expect the Buccaneers to have a fierce pass rush on Sunday to get to Tannehill. Without an offensive line, the Titans are going to struggle in this game as the pass-happy Buccaneers offense can score early and often. Expect a close game here. The Buccaneers with the points is the correct choice here.

Over Under Pick

As noted, the Buccaneers love to pass the ball early and often. They are in the top 10 in the league for yards through the air with 269.5 per game. On the flip side, the Buccaneers’ pass defense is not great either , allowing over 300 yards per game. Expect a couple of big plays from Tannehill and Winston in this game to help hit the Over. For the Buccaneers, the Over has hit in 15 of the last 20 road games with the total score average score being over 55 points. With the total sitting at 46 points in this game, this is an easy slam for the Over. Take it with confidence.

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Sun, Oct 27th - 1:00pm ET:
New York Jets @ Jacksonville Jaguars

New York Jets

Jacksonville Jaguars

JAX Jaguars -6.0 Point Spread

-111

Under 41.5 Game Totals

-111

Against The Spread Pick

There are two rules in NFL Betting. 1. Never bet against the New England Patriots. 2. Never put money on a quarterback who is seeing ghosts to cover any game. Rule number two comes into play in this game as the New York Jets travel to Jacksonville to take on the Jaguars. During Monday Night Football’s blowout loss to the Patriots, quarterback Sam Darnold was mic’d up and was heard saying “I’m seeing ghosts”. There was probably a good chance he was as he finished the loss completing 11 of 32 passes for just 86 yards, four interceptions and coughing up a fumble. On the flip side, the Jaguars are coming into this game off a huge road win against the Bengals where QB Gardner Minshew threw for 255 yards and a touchdown while running back Leonard Fournette had over 130 rushing yards. The NY Jets are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games against Jacksonville as well as 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games played in October as there should be no reason to back the Jets here. Take the Jaguars with confidence.

Over Under Pick

Surprise, surprise, the Jets actually have a pretty impressive rush defense as they are only allowing 92.2 yards on the ground per game which is 10th in the league. I expect the Jets’ defense to give the Jaguars rushing attack some problems in this game as Minshew and Darnold combine should not get anywhere near that 41.5 total by themselves. Unless there are four picks six’s in this game, this game has Under written all over it. The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Jacksonville’s last 9 games played in week 8 as well as in 5 of NY Jets’ last 7 games.

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Sun, Oct 27th - 1:00pm ET:
Arizona Cardinals @ New Orleans Saints

Arizona Cardinals

New Orleans Saints

NO Saints -9.5 Point Spread

-111

Over 48.0 Game Totals

-111

Against The Spread Pick

The Arizona Cardinals fly East to play the New Orleans Saints. They have been the underdog story in recent weeks with three straight covers as ‘dogs and two straight-up wins. Last week, they easily handled the New York Giants on the road and they are just 1.5 games behind the Seahawks and Vikings for a wild-card spot. Even though the offense has been starting to click, the defense has been the real story. The Cardinals sacked Daniel Jones eight times and only allowed 263 total yards. However, it is time to get real for the Cardinals as this week’s opponents have a lot more in their locker than the Bengals, Giants, and Falcons. The Saints are an offensive powerhouse who just put up 424 yards on a tough Chicago D. And that was without running back Alvin Kamara. The Cardinals are currently ranked 25th overall at defending the pass, as they have been yielding an average of 263.3 yards per game. Even if Drew Brees does not come back this week, expect the Saints to show the Cardinals what a true playoff team is. Take the Saints at home.

Over Under Pick

It has been a fun three weeks for the Arizona Cardinals as head coach Kliff Kingsbury has helped the Cardinals offense to an average of 29 points per game. Even though the Saints will cover in this game, do not expect this game to be a blowout. Arizona will have some tricks up their sleeve and try to send a message early to New Orleans. Expect points. The total has gone OVER in 4 of New Orleans’ last 6 games when playing as the favorite and in 4 of Arizona’s last 6 games against an opponent in the NFC conference. Give me the Over here as the Cardinals and Saints trade touchdowns.

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Sun, Oct 27th - 1:05pm ET:
Carolina Panthers @ San Francisco 49ers

Carolina Panthers

San Francisco 49ers

CAR Panthers +5.5 Point Spread

-111

Under 41.5 Game Totals

-111

Against the Spread Pick

The San Francisco 49ers will host the Carolina Panthers here in one of the most interesting games of the Week 8 slate. Kyle Allen will get his fifth straight start at quarterback for the Panthers, and if he can pull off another win here there’s no way Carolina is going to give the job back to Cam Newton. The 49ers are still undefeated, but they didn’t look too good in their most recent win, picking up an ugly 9-0 victory over the lowly Redskins. Jimmy Garoppolo was terrible in that game and when you dig into it, he hasn’t actually been that good this season. San Francisco has played an incredibly easy schedule, with games against teams like the Buccaneers, Bengals, Steelers, Browns and most recently the Redskins. They haven’t really been tested that much, and I think this is going to be a wake-up call for them. The Panthers are well-rested coming off their bye week, and they’re going to keep this one very close at the least, if not win it outright.

Over Under Pick

I also like the under a lot here. What Allen has been able to do has been very impressive, but he’s still a young and inexperienced former undrafted free agent going on the road here for just the sixth start of his career. The 49er’s defense is one of the most improved units in the entire league and I think they’re going to make life pretty difficult for Allen here. As you can probably tell from my spread pick, I’m not a very big fan of Garoppolo. He hasn’t been playing well at all this season and he was downright atrocious against the Redskins. He has just as many turnovers as he does touchdowns on the season, and the reason the 49ers have been so good has been because of their defense and their running game. Both teams will look to establish the run here which will keep this clock running and keep scoring to a minimum.

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Sun, Oct 27th - 4:25pm ET:
Cleveland Browns @ New England Patriots

Cleveland Browns

New England Patriots

CLE Browns +13.0 Point Spread

-111

Under 46.0 Game Totals

-111

Against the Spread Pick

The New England Patriots enter this game against the Cleveland Browns at 7-0, fresh off another lopsided victory over the Jets on Monday Night Football. The Browns are coming off their bye week, and are in a state of disarray after dropping to 2-4. Many in the media are calling for first-year head coach Freddie Kitchens’ head, and Baker Mayfield is facing the most adversity of his young pro career. For a few reasons, I think the Browns will be able to keep this one closer than most people seem to expect. For starters, the Patriots have played an extremely easy schedule. They’ve been beating up on teams like the Steelers, Dolphins, Jets, Redskins, and Giants, and haven’t really been tested yet this season. They’re now going up against a hungry Browns team that absolutely needs to put forth a good effort here, and one that has had an extra week to prepare for them. Cleveland is finally starting to get healthier on defense and I think they should be able to get after Tom Brady here. The Patriots are riding high and coming off a short week, perhaps they don’t look their sharpest. Take the points.

Over Under Pick

I’m also playing the under here. The Browns have one of the league’s better pass-rushing duos in Myles Garrett and Olivier Vernon, and the key to stopping Brady is getting pressure on him. I think the Browns will be able to do that here and they’ll be able to keep this Patriots offense in check more so than other teams have. The Patriots have only played one good defense the entire season and that came back when they faced Buffalo, a game in which Brady struggled mightily. Mayfield has regressed since his rookie season and he should struggle against this truly elite Patriots defense that has already picked-off an incredible 18 passes this season.This one has defensive struggle written all over it.

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Sun, Oct 27th - 4:25pm ET:
Oakland Raiders @ Houston Texans

Oakland Raiders

Houston Texans

HOU Texans -6.5 Point Spread

-111

Over 51.5 Game Totals

-111

Against The Spread Pick

The Oakland Raiders come into this game hoping to get something going on the season. They have shown signs of promise, but have missed the mark in the most critical times. The Raiders have failed to cover 11 of their last 15 games as a road underdog and have been owned by their opponents in the second halves of games. In the past three games, the Texans have been an offensive unit, scoring 35.7 ppg and winning two out of the three. The Texans need a huge win here and they are in the perfect spot. The Raiders have played well on the road since Week 2, but I do not love the line right now. Anything below a touchdown, you have to lean with the Texans. If the line jumps to a touchdown or higher, I love the Raiders here.

Over Under Pick

The offense is not the problem for the Raiders as quarterback Derek Carr comes into this game completing 74.1 percent of his passes for 1,410 yards, eight touchdowns, and four interceptions. Oakland has scored an average of 26.3 points per game in their last three contests and they should have no problem scoring against a Texans team that has one of the weakest secondaries in the league. On the flip side, the Texans should equally have no problem scoring on the Raiders as Oakland is allowing 27.5 points and 376.5 yards per game. Even though the Raiders come into this game off a loss to Green Bay, the Raiders outgained the Packers 484 yards to 481. This is going to be a high-scoring game as both quarterbacks could easily have three touchdowns apiece. The total has gone OVER in 4 of Oakland’s last 5 games as well as in 5 of Houston’s last 6 games against Oakland. The OVER is one of the best bets in this Week 8 slate!

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Sun, Oct 27th - 8:20pm ET:
Green Bay Packers @ Kansas City Chiefs

Green Bay Packers

Kansas City Chiefs

KC Chiefs +4.5 Point Spread

-111

Over 47.5 Game Totals

-111

Against the Spread Pick

Sunday Night Football here as the Kansas City Chiefs host the Green Bay Packers. Unfortunately we won’t get to see Aaron Rodgers face off against Patrick Mahomes, as Mahomes was injured during Thursday Night Football last week. Instead, veteran journeyman Matt Moore will start in Mahomes’ place. That might sound bad, but the situation isn’t as dire as it seems. Moore has actually shown in the past that he’s quite capable of playing well for stretches, and thankfully he has one of the best coaches in the league calling his plays in Andy Reid. Reid is capable of game-planning for just about any quarterback and he should be able to scheme up plenty of easy throws against an overrated Packers defense. Green Bay is 6-1 now but they sure haven’t played like a team deserving of that record, and now is the perfect time to sell-high on them while you still can. Arrowhead is one of the toughest stadiums to play in across the entire league, especially at night. The crowd will be raucous, and the Chiefs will cover this one.

Over Under Pick

I also like the over here, as it’s a good time to fade the national narrative that the Chiefs’ offense is going to sharply decline without Mahomes. Of course, Mahomes is much better than Moore is, but that doesn’t mean Kansas City’s offense won’t still be able to function at a high level. They still have elite weapons in Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill, which will make life much easier for Moore. Kansas City’s defense still isn’t very good and they should get shredded by Rodgers who is coming off one of the best games of his career against the Raiders in which he accounted for six total touchdowns. I still think this one can be the shootout that many were expecting a couple of weeks ago.