Against the Spread Pick
Thursday Night Football here as the New York Jets travel to take on the Baltimore Ravens. Obviously Baltimore is the better team, but I think you have to take the points with the Jets here. The Ravens have been dominating opponents this season by imposing their will with their physicality, and on a short week when guys are still fatigued and banged up I don’t think they will have that same edge here. Even star quarterback Lamar Jackson is hurting, as he appeared on the injury report this week with a thigh issue. The Jets aren’t nearly as bad as people think they are, and they’ve actually won four of their past five games. The Ravens quietly didn’t play very well this past week against the Bills, and each of their past two games have been decided by one possession. If it wasn’t for Josh Allen missing a few throws last week, Baltimore might have lost the Buffalo. Getting more than two touchdowns provides some value here.
Over Under Pick
I also think the under makes some sense here. Jackson had one of his worst games of the season this past week, only throwing for 145 yards and picking up 40 on the ground. Buffalo stymied him for most of the day, and I think Jets defensive coordinator Gregg Williams will be able to take some stuff from that film. Baltimore’s defense has gone a lot better since they traded for cornerback Marcus Peters and fellow corner Jimmy Smith came back healthy, as they’ve given up 17 or fewer points in seven of their last eight games. This is a Jets offense that just a couple of weeks ago only mustered six points against the Bengals, so I don’t think they’re going to light it up here.