NFL Week 5 Picks Against The Spread & Straight Up For 2019

SEA Seahawks -2.0 Point Spread

-111

Under 49.0 Game Totals

-111

Against the Spread Pick

Two 3-1 NFC West teams will square off here as the Seattle Seahawks host the Los Angeles Rams on Thursday Night Football. The Rams are coming off a shocking loss to the Buccaneers, while the Seahawks just trounced the Cardinals. I’m not impressed by Seattle’s strength of schedule so far this season, but I think they’ll be able to do enough to get a win here. The Rams clearly aren’t as good as they were last year, and defenses seem to have figured out how to play Jared Goff. Goff has regressed mightily, and defenses are taking away the deep ball and forcing him to read the middle of the field. Todd Gurley clearly isn’t healthy, and the Rams only gave him five carries this past week. Jameis Winston had been struggling through the first few weeks of the season, but he had no problem carving up the Rams’ secondary. As such, I’d expect Russell Wilson to have some success here as well. Seattle will have a raucous home crowd for a primetime game, and they’ll cover the spread.

Over Under Pick

I also like the under in this spot. Goff often struggles on the road, and this will be a particularly hostile environment in a nationally televised game. Gurley isn’t himself right now, so I don’t think the Rams will have much success on the ground either. Seattle on the other hand loves to run the ball, so expect them to play ball control here which will bleed a lot of clock. Seahawks offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer is pretty conservative, and he’s not looking to get involved in a shootout. I expect Sean McVay to scale back Los Angeles’ offense a bit as well with Goff sinking.

Top Storylines to follow in the Divisional Round of the 2020 NFL Playoffs

DFS Must-Start Players for the Divisional Round

DraftKings NFL Wild-Card Weekend Cash Game Plays

Sun, Oct 6th - 1:00pm ET:
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ New Orleans Saints

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

New Orleans Saints

TB Buccaneers +3.0 Point Spread

+100

Under 47.0 Game Totals

-111

Against the Spread Pick

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers will look to follow up on their huge win as they head to New Orleans to take on the Saints in Week 5. Tampa pulled off one of the biggest upsets of the season this past week, knocking off the Rams on the road to hand Los Angeles their first loss. The Saints picked up a tough win over the Cowboys, but I’m still not sold on Teddy Bridgewater. After throwing for only 177 yards in his first start, Bridgewater threw for 193 yards against Dallas. Sean Payton clearly doesn’t trust him, and Bridgewater barely attempts any passes more than a few yards beyond the line of scrimmage. Jameis Winston made major strides last week, torching the Rams’ defense for 385 yards and four touchdowns. As he gets more comfortable in Bruce Arians’ system, he should only continue to improve. New Orleans was able to squeak out a close win over the Cowboys because they had the added juice of being the home team in a primetime game, but they won’t have that advantage here. Take Tampa.

Over Under Pick

I also like the under a lot, and this total is too high for a game involving Bridgewater. Payton is being very conservative with his new quarterback, and it looks like he’s just trying to run out the clock until Drew Brees gets back. He isn’t going to let Bridgewater do too much, and he’ll probably seek to establish the run here. The Bucs have a very underrated defense under new defensive coordinator Todd Bowles, and they just forced Jared Goff to commit four turnovers last week. Winston is as inconsistent as they come, so it’s quite possible he takes a step back here. Bridgewater game-managed to a 12-10 win over Dallas, and I think we see a similarly low-scoring game here.

DraftKings NFL Wild-Card Weekend Cash Game Plays

FanDuel NFL Wild-Card Cash Game Plays

Top Storylines to follow in the Wild Card round of the 2020 NFL Playoffs

Sun, Oct 6th - 1:00pm ET:
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Carolina Panthers

Jacksonville Jaguars

Carolina Panthers

CAR Panthers -3.5 Point Spread

-105

Under 41.0 Game Totals

-111

Against the Spread Pick

Will Minshew Mania finally come to an end here? The Jacksonville Jaguars have won two straight games, and rookie sensation Gardner Minshew had some late-game heroics in their latest victory over the Denver Broncos. They’ll look to keep it rolling at Carolina, but I think they’ll have a much more difficult time. The final drive notwithstanding, Minshew didn’t actually have a great game, and the Broncos did more to lose that one than the Jags did to win it. I was really high on this Panthers team all offseason, but they fell to 0-2 because Cam Newton was playing severely hurt. Now that Kyle Allen has been inserted under center, they’ve rattled off back-to-back wins. Their defense has been playing lights out, and Allen doesn’t look like a second-year undrafted free agent. Christian McCaffrey is one of the best weapons in the league, and I think he’ll have some success here. This Minshew buzz is bound to come to an end soon, and I think it’ll be here. Take the Panthers.

Over Under Pick

I also like the under in this spot. We’ve got two young and inexperienced quarterbacks facing off against each other, which is the recipe for a very low-scoring game. I think Minshew struggles, and when you dig into the box score he wasn’t actually that good against Denver last week. He threw for only 213 yards, and took five sacks. Jacksonville’s offensive line is an issue, and the offense won’t have much success against an underrated Panthers defense that just held Deshaun Watson to 10 points last week. Carolina’s Week 4 win over the Texans ended with a final score of 16-10, and I think we see something similar here.

5 things to watch in week 17 of the 2019 NFL Season

DraftKings Week 17 Cash Game Plays

Sun, Oct 6th - 1:00pm ET:
Baltimore Ravens @ Pittsburgh Steelers

Baltimore Ravens

Pittsburgh Steelers

BAL Ravens -3.5 Point Spread

-105

Over 44.5 Game Totals

-111

Against the Spread Pick

AFC North rivalry game incoming as the Pittsburgh Steelers host the Baltimore Ravens. The Ravens are coming off a rough loss to the Browns, while the Steelers picked up their first win of the season on Monday Night Football against the Bengals. Pittsburgh might’ve won big, but I’m not impressed. The Bengals are one of the worst teams in the league right now, and are 0-4 for a reason. The Ravens have fallen to 0-2, but I’m not at all concerned. Lamar Jackson has still looked much-improved overall, and he should be in for a big day here against a Pittsburgh defense that is a total mess schematically. This will be the toughest test of Mason Rudolph’s young career, and I expect him to struggle against this Ravens pass rush. Pittsburgh isn’t going anywhere this season, and I think they know it. Even in their big win over Cincinnati they only averaged 2.6 yards per carry, so it’s all going to fall on Rudolph’s shoulders here. Lay it with Baltimore.

Over Under Pick

The over also makes some sense here. Jackson had a tough day against Cleveland, but he still managed to pass for three touchdowns and the Ravens put up 25 points. They actually averaged an efficient 5.9 yards per play for the game, but it was their defense that let them down. Baltimore’s secondary is still banged up, and since Rudolph loves to throw deep, expect Pittsburgh to complete a few big passes. I’m expecting a bounce-back game from Jackson, and he should thrive against a Pittsburgh defense that doesn’t have the speed to keep up with him. This one has sneaky shootout potential.

Top Storylines to follow in the Divisional Round of the 2020 NFL Playoffs

DraftKings Cash Game Plays for the Divisional Round

Top Storylines to follow in the Wild Card round of the 2020 NFL Playoffs

Sun, Oct 6th - 1:00pm ET:
Buffalo Bills @ Tennessee Titans

Buffalo Bills

Tennessee Titans

BUF Bills +3.0 Point Spread

-111

Under 38.5 Game Totals

-111

Against the Spread Pick

The Buffalo Bills will hit the highway and travel to Tennessee to take on the Titans. Buffalo blew a golden opportunity to beat the Patriots in Week 4, but they still enter this one at 3-1 and in good shape. Quarterback Josh Allen is in the concussion protocol and his status for this game isn’t clear yet, but it doesn’t matter. Simply put there’s a reason why oddsmakers have kept this line open even with the uncertainty, and I like the Bills either way. There’s not much of a downgrade in terms of the point spread from Allen to his backup Matt Barkley. Even if it’s Barkley under center, this Bills defense is easily good enough to get a win here. The Titans got a big win in Week 4, but that was against the Falcons, who are in free-fall at the moment. This Tennessee defense is still overrated, and Marcus Mariota will be overmatched by this Bills pass rush. Take the 3 points, but I think the Bills win this one outright as well.

Over Under Pick

I also like the under a lot here. Buffalo has quietly assembled one of the best defenses in the league. They just smothered Tom Brady last Sunday and made him have one of his worst games in many years, limiting him to just 3.8 yards per attempt and no touchdowns with an interception. Brady never looked comfortable against the Bills’ swarming defense, and if he could only muster 150 yards then imagine what Mariota is going to do here. The Bills’ passing game looked like a mess as well, and neither Allen nor Barkley are going to light it up through the air.

DraftKings DFS Cash Game Plays for Championship Sunday

DFS Must-Start Cash Game Players for Championship Week

Top Storylines to follow during Championship Weekend of 2020 NFL Playoffs

Sun, Oct 6th - 1:00pm ET:
Minnesota Vikings @ New York Giants

Minnesota Vikings

New York Giants

MIN Vikings -5.5 Point Spread

-111

Under 45.0 Game Totals

-111

Against The Spread Pick

The Minnesota Vikings come into this week 5 matchup against the New York Giants looking to turn their season around. After losing to the Chicago Bears last weekend, wide receiver Adam Thielen called out Kirk Cousins and the offense as the receiver highlighted how one-dimensional the Vikings offense currently is. Now, however, they get a dream matchup as the NFL’s No. 3 running attack takes on the Giants who have allowed 116.7 rushing yards per game in the last three goes. With the running game going, Cousins will be able to open up the playbook as there will be no pressure, unlike his last matchup against the Bears. Last week, Cousins was sacked six times and fumbled twice, but the Giants are getting little pressure this season with two sacks per game. For the Giants, they are undefeated with Daniel Jones under center, but he has averaged just 192 passing yards in his two games, against the second- and third-worst defenses in the league. Jones will now take on the sixth-ranked defense in the league. Without Barkley, this Giants offense is going to be lost. The Vikings are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following an ATS loss as I’m leaning with the Vikings BIG here.

Over Under Pick

Minnesota’s defense is going to showcase why they are one of the best in the league as they take on a rookie quarterback without their star running back. New York is getting 5.7 yards per play at home this season as Minnesota is allowing just 4.4 yards per play on the road. New York is going to be shaken up a bit at home as the Vikings control this game from the start. The Under is a HUGE play here especially when these two teams meet as they have an average score of 38.5 in the last four games. The Under is 4-0 in Giants last 4 games following a straight-up win of more than 14 points as well as 7-0 in Vikings last 7 vs. NFC. Give me the Under in this slow-paced defensive game.

Top Storylines to follow in the Divisional Round of the 2020 NFL Playoffs

Top Storylines to follow in the Wild Card round of the 2020 NFL Playoffs

5 things to watch in week 17 of the 2019 NFL Season

Sun, Oct 6th - 1:00pm ET:
Arizona Cardinals @ Cincinnati Bengals

Arizona Cardinals

Cincinnati Bengals

ARZ Cardinals +3.0 Point Spread

+100

Under 47.0 Game Totals

-111

Against The Spread Pick

The Arizona Cardinals are ready for yet another road game as they head into Cincinnati to take on the Bengals. The Bengals are making a strong case that they are the worst team in the NFL. They enter this game winless and still searching for some type of offense and defense to bring this team together. Without star WR A.J. Green, the Bengals seem lost right now. They rank 27th in the NFL in total offense and are averaging just 14.3 points per game, which ranks 30th. On the flip side, their defense is not much better as they are ranked 24th in yards allowed and 28th in scoring defense. The Cardinals have been a hit and miss on the offensive side as well, but at least there is some promise with Arizona. The Cardinals have the weapons and should be able to use them here. Cardinals are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games on FieldTurf as well as 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 road games. Give me the Cardinals in this low-scoring game.

Over Under Pick

As stated above, the Bengals have one of the worst offenses in the league. They are barely getting two touchdowns every game and the Cardinals are right there with them. Arizona is getting just four points per game more than Cincinnati and I do not see this game being high scoring at all. Both Arizona and Cincinnati are in the bottom 5 of the league in yards per play (Arizona 4.8, Cincinnati 4.9) and these offenses are going to stall left and right. The Under is the best bet of this matchup. The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cincinnati’s last 7 games played in week 5 as well as in 5-1 in Cardinals last 6 games following a double-digit loss at home. Under is the play here as both teams struggle to get a couple of touchdowns before the half.

5 things to watch in week 17 of the 2019 NFL Season

5 things to watch in week 16 of the 2019 NFL Season

Sun, Oct 6th - 1:00pm ET:
Chicago Bears @ Oakland Raiders

Chicago Bears

Oakland Raiders

CHI Bears -4.5 Point Spread

-111

Under 40.5 Game Totals

-111

Against The Spread Pick

Even though the Chicago Bears are rolling right now, they are going to be without one of their stars. Quarterback Mitch Trubisky is doubtful to play this week in London against the Oakland Raiders. He left Sunday’s victory over the Minnesota Vikings during the first drive of the game after landing awkwardly on his left arm. However, there should be no worries for the Bears offense as veteran backup Chase Daniel looked good stepping in for Trubisky. Daniel finished the game with 195 passing yards along with one touchdown. With this matchup between the Bears and Raiders being a special one in London, it is time to open up the unique London trends book. Favorites have been on fire in London as they hold an 18-5-1 SU (78.2% win rate) and 15-9 ATS (62.5% cover rate) records across the 24 games played in UK stadiums since 2007. With Chicago averaging 4.2 sacks per game, Oakland is going to have trouble taking down the Bears. The Bears are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games following an ATS win. Give me Chicago.

Over Under Pick

Time to continue this London trend as I have another big one for this Over-Under pick. London games have gone below the total in six of the last seven matchups, by an average of 12.1 points. With the Chicago defense perhaps the best in the league, this is another bet that needs to be on your slip come Sunday. Chicago is allowing just 61.5 rushing yards per game, which is 3rd in the league and 11.2 points which is 2nd best of all teams. There is no way the Raiders are going to be dropping dimes on Chicago. The Under is 4-0-1 in Raiders last 5 games following an ATS win as well as 7-1-1 in Raiders last 9 games following a straight-up win. Give me the Under here as this is another great play along with the ATS bet.

5 things to watch in week 17 of the 2019 NFL Season

DraftKings Week 16 Cash Game Recommendations

Sun, Oct 6th - 1:00pm ET:
New York Jets @ Philadelphia Eagles

New York Jets

Philadelphia Eagles

NY Jets +14.0 Point Spread

-111

Over 43.5 Game Totals

-116

Against The Spread Pick

The New York Jets come into this game well-rested after benefiting from an early bye week. Now they have the tough challenge of keeping this game close against the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 5. For the Jets, all eyes will be on quarterback Sam Darnold as he could be making his return to the team after being sidelined with mono in recent weeks. Even though he has been cleared for drills, there are still a lot of hurdles to clear. Whoever starts for this game, it will be good news for Jets bettors in this game as the Eagles’ secondary has proven to be more than vulnerable this season, giving up 323.8 passing yards per game which is 31st in the league and nine passing touchdowns – tied 29th – through four games. Giving a two-touchdown lead for the Jets is more than enough against this weak secondary as Darnold or Falk can lead the way. Heading into this game, the Eagles are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 home games as well as 0-6 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Give me the Jets here as this is too large of a spread for the Eagles to cover.

Over Under Pick

In the past five games against the Eagles, the Jets have scored at least 17 points, and the task of keeping that trend alive is not a tall order against one of the worst secondaries in the league. New York could even stay toe to toe with Philadelphia if they can get the running game going. New Jets running back Le’Veon Bell is averaging 54.3 rushing yards per game and needs to get involved more in the offense. This is the perfect game for Bell to open up on the ground as well as get into the passing game. With Darnold back with the Jets, expect a full Jets team ready to push the buttons of the Eagles. The total has gone OVER in 5 of NY Jets’ last 6 games against an opponent in the NFC conference as well as in 5 of Philadelphia’s last 7 games against NY Jets. Give me the Over here as this is a high scoring game in Week 5.

FanDuel NFL Wild-Card Cash Game Plays

Top Storylines to follow in the Wild Card round of the 2020 NFL Playoffs

DFS Must-Start Players for Wild-Card Weekend

Sun, Oct 6th - 1:00pm ET:
New England Patriots @ Washington Redskins

New England Patriots

Washington Redskins

NE Patriots -15.5 Point Spread

-111

Under 43.5 Game Totals

-111

Against The Spread Pick

The New England Patriots are one of the last teams who are still undefeated on the season as they head on the road to take on the Washington Redskins. Redskins fans saw their hopeful franchise quarterback Dwayne Haskins enter the game in week four. However, maybe it was too soon for Haskins as he finished the game with 107 passing yards on 9 completed passing attempts, with zero touchdowns and three interceptions. Haskins cannot learn in this horrible Redskins offense especially when they are without LT Trent Williams, RG Brandon Scherff, emerging rookie Terry McClaurin and TE Jordan Reed. Now the rookie will be going up against one of the best defenses in the league. Since last season, it took 252 days for the New England Patriots to allow their first touchdown of the season as they took down rival Buffalo in week four. New England is one of four teams that is allowing under 200 passing yards per game and this is a horrible spot for both Keenum and Haskins. Give me the Patriots here. Interesting fact, New England is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games played in week 5.

Over Under Pick

Even though New England is averaging 30.5 points per game so far this season, they have been nothing special on the offensive side of the ball. The hidden gem for this team has been the defense and they have been locking down teams left and right. Now they take on a Redskins team that practically does not have an offense to score at all. The total has gone UNDER in 6 of New England’s last 8 games on the road and, interesting fact, in 9 of Washington’s last 10 games played in week 5 as well. Expect the Patriots dropping over 20 points in this game with the Redskins struggling to get over six points. This is a clear pick for the UNDER here.

DraftKings NFL Wild-Card Weekend Cash Game Plays

Top Storylines to follow in the Wild Card round of the 2020 NFL Playoffs

5 things to watch in week 17 of the 2019 NFL Season

Sun, Oct 6th - 1:00pm ET:
Atlanta Falcons @ Houston Texans

Atlanta Falcons

Houston Texans

HOU Texans -5.0 Point Spread

-111

Under 48.5 Game Totals

-111

Against The Spread Pick

It’s time to get real for the Atlanta Falcons. They have an impressive roster of players yet every single year they continue to let down fans and bettors week after week. Is it a coaching problem? It seems to be as the Falcons have not bounced back since their Super Bowl defeat against the New England Patriots. The Falcons come into this game with a dreadful 1-3 record, and their lone win came against the injury-filled Philadelphian Eagles on Sunday Night Football. The Falcons’ offense, is averaging 17.5 points per game, 25th in the league, and 70.2 rushing yards per game, 26th in the league. Without a running game, Matt Ryan has been throwing the ball left and right, including for 53 attempts in the loss against the Tennessee Titans. On the flip side, quarterback DeShaun Watson took his recent loss to the Carolina Panthers pretty hard. Just two hours after the loss he was already back on the field working out with quarterback coach Quincy Avery. For the Falcons, they are taking on their first AFC this season and boy do they struggle against them. Atlanta is 0-13 ATS in their last 13 games against an opponent in the AFC conference. Time to jump off the Atlanta train as the Home team is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings. Give me the Texans in a bounce-back ATS cover in week 5.

Over Under Pick

The Atlanta Falcons offense is a TRAIN WRECK right now and the Under is a great bet in this game. With averaging 4.0 rushing yards per attempt, the Falcons are going to be passing the ball once again and the Texans can lock that up with ease. Houston is only allowing 259 passing yards per game as they will be able to close down Ryan fast and early. The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Houston’s last 6 games as well as in 8 of Atlanta’s last 12 games. Give me the Under in this low-scoring and slow game in Week 5.

Top Storylines to follow in the Divisional Round of the 2020 NFL Playoffs

Top Storylines to follow in the Wild Card round of the 2020 NFL Playoffs

5 things to watch in week 17 of the 2019 NFL Season

Sun, Oct 6th - 4:05pm ET:
Denver Broncos @ Los Angeles Chargers

Denver Broncos

Los Angeles Chargers

DEN Broncos +6.5 Point Spread

-111

Under 44.5 Game Totals

-111

Against The Spread Pick

The Denver Broncos are making history in the wrong way as they come into this game off a shocking 26-24 home loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars. First-year head coach Vic Fangio has yet to get a win for the Broncos, but he comes into an interesting matchup against the Chargers on Sunday in Week 5. The Broncos have been on the winning and covering side against the Chargers as of late. They are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 meetings in Los Angeles as well as the Road team being 12-4-2 ATS in their last 18 meetings. The Broncos defense finally came alive against the Jaguars as they recorded their first sacks of the season with five in the game. However, could not get any pressure late in the game and let the lead slip away. At home, the Chargers are allowing 4.5 sacks per game and this is an upset ready to happen. I expect the Broncos defense to keep the Chargers offense in check all game as Denver is 12-4 SU in their last 16 games against LA Chargers. With the line currently at 6.5 for the Broncos, getting the Broncos at a touchdown would be the perfect option. However, 6.5 is still a solid option. Give me the Broncos as the Chargers are 11-27-1 ATS in their last 39 home games.

Over Under Pick

The Chargers are going to release star running back Melvin Gordon back into the wild as he gets his first action back with the team. However, it will be a tall order for Gordon to get back to his normal ways. In seven games against the Broncos, Gordon is only averaging 93 rushing yards and only one touchdown. With the Chargers and Broncos defense both in the top 15 in the NFL in allowed points per game this is going to be a low-scoring game. The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Denver’s last 13 games as well as in 6 of Denver’s last 7 games on the road. Expect sacks and lots of them as the Under is a GREAT play here for this AFC rival game.

5 things to watch in week 17 of the 2019 NFL Season

DraftKings Week 17 Cash Game Plays

Sun, Oct 6th - 4:25pm ET:
Green Bay Packers @ Dallas Cowboys

Green Bay Packers

Dallas Cowboys

GB Packers +3.5 Point Spread

-116

Under 46.5 Game Totals

-111

Against the Spread Pick

It’s the marquee matchup of the week here as the Dallas Cowboys host the Green Bay Packers. There are only two late afternoon games this week, so pretty much everyone will be watching this one. Both teams fell to 3-1 after dropping their Week 4 matchups. For a few reasons, I think the Packers will be the ones who bounce back here. Green Bay lost a very close game to the Eagles, and they were about to send it to overtime if not for a fluke Aaron Rodgers tipped interception that should’ve been called pass interference. The Packers also played on Thursday night, so they had an extra few days to prepare for this one. Additionally, the Cowboys will be without stud left tackle Tyron Smith here, who suffered an ankle injury late in their loss to the Saints. When Smith has missed games the past couple of years Dak Prescott’s protection has fallen apart, and it’s a huge loss. The Cowboys certainly didn’t look impressive against New Orleans as they mustered only 10 points, and I don’t think they’ll be able to slow down Rodgers.

Over Under Pick

I like the under even more here, and there are reasons to believe both offenses will struggle. When Smith has missed time in the past Dallas’ entire offense has stalled, and I expect that to be the case again here. Green Bay’s defense is the best it’s been in many years, and they now have a very solid pass-rush led by Za’Darius Smith and Preston Smith. Smith isn’t the only offensive injury the Cowboys have, as they’ll also still be without number two receiver Michael Gallup. The offense doesn’t look quite the same without him, and top wideout Amari Cooper is dealing with an ankle injury that clearly limited his effectiveness against New Orleans. Pound the under.

FanDuel Cash Game Plays for Championship Sunday

Top Storylines to follow during Championship Weekend of 2020 NFL Playoffs

Top Storylines to follow in the Divisional Round of the 2020 NFL Playoffs

Sun, Oct 6th - 8:20pm ET:
Indianapolis Colts @ Kansas City Chiefs

Indianapolis Colts

Kansas City Chiefs

IND Colts +10.5 Point Spread

-111

Under 56.5 Game Totals

-111

Against the Spread Pick

We’ve got a rematch of last year’s divisional round playoff game here as the Kansas City Chiefs host the Indianapolis Colts on Sunday Night Football. Unfortunately, Andrew Luck won’t be under center for Indy this time around. Fortunately, they’ve found a rock-solid replacement in Jacoby Brissett. Brissett has looked comfortable leading the offense so far, and I think he’ll have some success here against a Kansas City defense that just got carved up by Matthew Stafford and the Lions. The Chiefs’ defense is still an issue, and their offense is pretty banged up. Tyreek Hill won’t be back for this one, making life a little easier for this underrated Colts secondary. The Chiefs still have an iffy run defense, so I think Marlon Mack will have a big game here. There simply hasn’t been much of a drop-off from Luck to Brissett, and oddsmakers haven’t caught up yet. This line is a bit inflated, and you need to take the value with the double-digit underdog.

Over Under Pick

This total is also a bit too high. Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs’ offense showed this past week that they aren’t totally unstoppable, as Mahomes failed to throw a touchdown pass against Detroit. I expect the Colts to come out with a run-first gameplan centered around Mack, which will keep the clock moving and limit the number of possessions in this game. The Colts’ defense is starting to get healthier, and if All-Pro linebacker Darius Leonard can return from his concussion for this one, the unit should be able to do just enough to keep this one under.