NFL week four picks against the spread and straight up for every game this week. Get our free NFL week four expert picks below. Get free NFL picks every week of the season.

Thu, Sep 26th - 8:20pm ET:
Philadelphia Eagles @ Green Bay Packers

Philadelphia Eagles
Green Bay Packers
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PHI Eagles +4.5 Point Spread
-111
Over 45.0 Game Totals
-111

Against the Spread Pick

We’ve got a premier NFC showdown here as the Green Bay Packers host the Philadelphia Eagles on Thursday Night Football. The Eagles are limping into this one off two straight losses, and could desperately use a win in this one. The Packers are sitting pretty at 3-0, but I think their record is a bit misleading. They’ve struggled for extended stretches in all three games, and they haven’t played like you’d expect from a 3-0 team. Philly needs this game more, and they should give it an all-out effort. Aaron Rodgers’ stats aren’t anything to be impressed by so far, and the Eagles have caught some really tough breaks. Philly’s receivers have done them in with a lot of brutal drops, and as long as they catch the ball here they should be able to at least keep this one very close. The Eagles still have a ton of talent, and they aren’t strangers to this kind of big stage. Take the points here.

Over Under Pick

I also like the over in this spot, though I wouldn’t bet it too big. The Packers are dealing with a couple injuries on defense, and so are the Eagles. Philly’s best cornerback Ronald Darby is going to miss this one after injuring his hamstring on Sunday, which is a huge loss. Green Bay’s defense has gotten a lot of credit for their improved play in 2019, but they haven’t exactly played a murderer’s row of quarterbacks after facing Mitchell Trubisky, Kirk Cousins, and Joe Flacco in their first three games. The Eagles love to be aggressive, so expect to see them take some shots down the field early. This one could turn into a shootout.

Sun, Sep 29th - 1:00pm ET:
New England Patriots @ Buffalo Bills

New England Patriots
Buffalo Bills
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BUF Bills +7.0 Point Spread
-120
Under 42.0 Game Totals
-111

Against the Spread Pick

3-0 vs. 3-0 here in this AFC East rivalry game between the New England Patriots and Buffalo Bills. The defending champion Patriots have looked like Super Bowl contenders once again, but I don’t think they’ll have that easy of a time here. Everyone is hyping up New England’s defense for not having given up an offensive touchdown yet, but they’ve played a very soft schedule. They opened with a Steelers team that clearly isn’t as good as people thought, and have played the Dolphins and Jets in their last two. The Bills have one of the best defenses in the league, and Josh Allen has made major strides. His offensive line is a lot better than it was last year, and with Cole Beasley and John Brown now in the fold, so is his receiving corp. Buffalo has one of the biggest home-field advantages of any team in the league, and you have to take the value here.

Over Under Pick

I like the under even more here. Tom Brady and the Patriots’ offense have looked great so far, but they haven’t been tested by a real defense yet. Pittsburgh, Miami, and New York didn’t offer much resistance, but that’s about to change. They’re now going on the road in a hostile environment against one of the league’s top defenses, and it won’t be smooth sailing. I think Buffalo will be able to get after Brady a bit, and it looks like the Patriots could be without Julian Edelman as he deals with a rib injury. Allen has looked better as a passer, but he still has a long way to go in his development. Bill Belichick will inevitably have a great defensive gameplan schemed up to stop Allen, and I’d expect Buffalo to be pretty conservative early on and try to win this one with their defense.

Sun, Sep 29th - 1:00pm ET:
Kansas City Chiefs @ Detroit Lions

Kansas City Chiefs
Detroit Lions
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KC Chiefs -6.5 Point Spread
-111
Over 54.0 Game Totals
-111

Against the Spread Pick

Two undefeated teams will square off here as the Kansas City Chiefs visit the Detroit Lions. They might both be undefeated, but only one deserves to be. Detroit has been catching lucky breaks at an unsustainable rate, and they’re due for some serious regression here. Kansas City is arguably the best team in the league, and their offense has somehow gotten even better from last year. The defense is also much-improved, which is what makes this team scary. This Lions team is average at best, and their wins over the Chargers and Eagles were fraudulent and misleading. Their tie with the Cardinals in Week 1 is more representative of what kind of team they are. It looks like Darius Slay is going to miss this game with a hamstring injury, and that’ll be a massive loss. Slay is by far the Lions’ best defensive player, and without him anchoring the secondary Patrick Mahomes is going to have a field day. The Chiefs are winning this one by at least a touchdown.

Over Under Pick

I also like the over a lot here. Mahomes is once again routinely putting up absurd numbers, and he should go off here against a severely overrated defense. Kansas City will get up big early on, which will force the Lions to pass a ton to catch up. Without Slay, this Lions secondary is a complete mess. They won’t be able to hang with the Chiefs’ group of weapons, and I don’t expect their defensive front to get much pressure either. Kansas City’s defense is better than it was last year, but it’s still not very good, so both sides should have success on offense.

Sun, Sep 29th - 1:00pm ET:
Cleveland Browns @ Baltimore Ravens

Cleveland Browns
Baltimore Ravens
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CLE Browns +7.0 Point Spread
-116
Over 46.0 Game Totals
-105

Against the Spread Pick

Pivotal AFC North clash here as the Baltimore Ravens host the Cleveland Browns. If this game was being played just a couple of weeks ago, the spread wouldn’t have been nearly this large. It wasn’t that long ago that the Browns were media darlings and the toast of the league, but everyone has seemingly hopped off the bandwagon after a 1-2 start. The Ravens are 2-1 and have surpassed expectations, with Lamar Jackson taking a big step forward in his development as a passer. The Browns were embarrassed on Sunday Night Football this past week, and I think they’ll bounce back here. The entire team has a huge chip on its shoulder, and a lot of people to prove wrong. It’s put up or shut up time, and we should see an A+ effort here. I think Myles Garrett and Olivier Vernon will be able to contain Jackson, and Baker Mayfield should be able to feast on an overrated Baltimore secondary. Getting a touchdown here is good value.

Over Under Pick

The play I really like in this game is the over. Baltimore’s defense is usually one of the league’s best units, but that isn’t the case this year. Their secondary got torched by the Chiefs and Cardinals, and the only team they shut down was the Dolphins. The Ravens are going to be missing Jimmy Smith and Tavon Young here, two starting cornerbacks. If Mayfield has even a little time to throw, he’ll have no trouble finding Odell Beckham Jr. and Jarvis Landry all day long. Cleveland’s secondary is also really banged up, so Jackson should be in for a big day as well. Both teams will be aggressive, and they’ll blow past this low total.

Sun, Sep 29th - 1:00pm ET:
Washington Redskins @ New York Giants

Washington Redskins
New York Giants
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WAS Redskins +3.0 Point Spread
-116
Over 49.0 Game Totals
-111

Against the Spread Pick

The New York Giants host the Washington Redskins in this NFC East clash. The Giants are riding high off their win over the Buccaneers in the first game of the Daniel Jones era, but unfortunately I think they’re due for some regression. This is the perfect buy-low-and-sell-high opportunity, as the Giants are coming off a thrilling last-second win while the Redskins are being written off by everybody. New York only beat Tampa because Matt Gay shanked a 34-yard field goal at the end, and their defense let Jameis Winston put up 31 points without too much resistance. Case Keenum looked terrible on Monday night, but he was playing the Bears’ defense. He made a few boneheaded decisions that led to turnovers, but he actually moved the ball well most of the night. Jones is still very inexperienced, and he’ll be going up against a defense with a lot more talent this time around. I’m taking the points with Washington, and I also think they’ll win this game outright.

Over Under Pick

The over also makes some sense here. The Giants’ defense is a complete sieve and their secondary just got torched by Winston, who had looked like one of the worst quarterbacks in the league the first couple of weeks. Keenum is averaging a robust 7.5 yards per attempt, and that’s despite facing a really tough schedule so far. Jones is a massive upgrade over Eli Manning, and he should take New York’s offense to new heights even without Saquon Barkley, who is sidelined with an ankle injury. Jay Gruden had Washington’s offense playing at a very fast pace last week and if he does the same thing here, we’ll see a ton of possessions and a lot of scoring.

Sun, Sep 29th - 1:00pm ET:
Carolina Panthers @ Houston Texans

Carolina Panthers
Houston Texans
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HOU Texans -5.0 Point Spread
-105
Over 46.5 Game Totals
-111

Against The Spread Pick

The Carolina Panthers are heading into this Week 4 matchup against the Houston Texans without their star quarterback Cam Newton, but there might be a new star in Carolina now. It was a Week 3 upset against the Arizona Cardinals, which saw backup QB Kyle Allen throw for 261 passing yards and 4 touchdowns. Allen has been slowly learning the Panthers’ offense, but can he repeat his performance against a Houston Texans team that is off an emotional comeback win against the Los Angeles Chargers? The Texans would be 3-0 on the season if they had not had that defensive letdown against the Saints Week 1. This is a very powerful offensive team that is dropping 22.7 points per game. The team from Texas is going to have too much here despite Allen’s potential for heroics. This line is going to head towards a touchdown favorite, jump on it NOW! No way this line should be this low especially when it is Kyle Allen vs DeShaun Watson.

Over Under Pick

Allen will be getting the start once again on Sunday, but I do not see another four-touchdown performance from him. However, there is one person on this Panthers team that is literally impossible to stop. Even with the Panthers’ horrible offensive performance against the Buccaneers, CMC is averaging 106 rushing yards and 44 receiving yards per game. Houston is allowing 108 rushing yards per game as CMC will move this Panthers offense into the RedZone. Give me the Over here as it is 4-0 in Panthers last 4 games following a straight-up win, as well as 10-2 in Panthers, last 12 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.

Sun, Sep 29th - 1:00pm ET:
Tennessee Titans @ Atlanta Falcons

Tennessee Titans
Atlanta Falcons
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ATL Falcons -4.0 Point Spread
-111
Under 45.5 Game Totals
-111

Against The Spread Pick

The Tennessee Titans have a quarterback problem. They enter this game with a struggling Marcus Mariota who might be losing his job very soon, especially with veteran QB Ryan Tannehill right behind him. Over three starts in 2019, Mariota is 56-of-92 passes for 706 yards and four touchdowns, with a passer rating of 99.3. Not too bad, but he has been sacked 17 times, which is not a recipe for success. And while they have to take a share of the blame, it is not just the offensive line’s fault, as they can’t help when Mariota’s out of the pocket. Since the 2017 season, he has the sixth-most scrambles among all quarterbacks. Atlanta’s pass rush has 5 sacks on the season and they will be looking to feast on Mariota. The Titans are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall and I’m taking the Falcons here.

Over Under Pick

Do not expect any type of high-scoring shootout in this Week 4 contest and plan for another snoozefest from the Tennessee Titans and Mariota. On the flip side, the Falcons offense has dropped 24 points in back-to-back weeks. In the past five games against the Titans, the Falcons have dropped an average of 18.8 points. The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Atlanta’s last 6 games against Tennessee as well as 4 of Atlanta’s last 5 games at home. Give me the Under

Sun, Sep 29th - 1:00pm ET:
Oakland Raiders @ Indianapolis Colts

Oakland Raiders
Indianapolis Colts
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IND Colts -7.0 Point Spread
-105
Over 45.0 Game Totals
-111

Against The Spread Pick

Not surprisingly, there were a lot of concerns around this Indianapolis Colts team after the sudden retirement of star quarterback Andrew Luck. Those worries have evaporated as backup QB Jacoby Brissett has taken this team and division by storm. The Colts’ biggest test this season was last week against the Falcons and the backup quarterback came to play. Brissett was 28-of-37 for 310 yards and two touchdowns in a 27-24 win over Atlanta. He set the tone by starting off the game perfect, completing his first 16 passes. Oakland is one of the worst teams on the road and are in the bottom 10 in time of possession with 28:26 minutes. Oakland is also dropping 14 points on the road this season and they did not look so great last week against the Vikings. Advantage goes to the Colts as they are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games in September as well as 32-15-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.

Over Under Pick

The Indianapolis Colts love playing at home and it clearly shows as their offense picks it up another level. In the past six home games, the Colts are averaging 30.33 points per game as they take on the Raiders who are allowing 26 points per game this season. This is going to be a high-scoring game as the Colts offense is going to showcase once again how it can continue to score in the post Andrew Luck world. The total has gone OVER in 9 of Indianapolis’ last 11 games played in week 4 and the play is the OVER!

Sun, Sep 29th - 1:00pm ET:
Los Angeles Chargers @ Miami Dolphins

Los Angeles Chargers
Miami Dolphins
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LA Chargers -16.0 Point Spread
-111
Under 44.5 Game Totals
-111

Against The Spread Pick

The Chargers have lost two straight games against the Detroit Lions and Houston Texans after failed comeback attempts. Both games saw Los Angeles with early leads before they faltered late in the second half. However, they will be confident of bouncing back in this Week 4 match-up with the Miami Dolphins  who are the worst team in the league and might even be the worst this decade. Miami is scoring just 5.3 points per game, which is the worst in the league, behind 45 rushing yards p/g, and 177.3 passing yards p/g. Long story short, the Dolphins offense cannot be trusted. It does not matter how close the game might be at first (example Cowboys vs Dolphins), the Dolphins will lose this game and not cover mainly because they are on the field only 24:09 minutes per game. Although it’s 16 points, I’m taking LA as the Chargers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following an ATS loss as well as 7-2 ATS in their last 9 road games. Chargers cover this Sunday and make Miami 0-4 ATS this season.

Over Under Pick

The Under has been the Dolphins best friend so far this season. With their horrible offense, it is impossible to make an argument on the Over hitting. The Under is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings in Miami between these two as well as 13-1 in the last 14 games. It’s not all Miami’s fault either. In the past five games against the Dolphins, the Chargers have scored an average of 17.4 points. Take the Under with confidence here.

Sun, Sep 29th - 4:05pm ET:
Seattle Seahawks @ Arizona Cardinals

Seattle Seahawks
Arizona Cardinals
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SEA Seahawks -5.0 Point Spread
-111
Over 47.5 Game Totals
-111

Against The Spread Pick

The Seattle Seahawks are ready to prove why they should still be considered a threat in the NFC West as they take on rivals Arizona Cardinals in the desert on Sunday. Both teams have been very inconsistent as of late and neither has clearly established where their strengths lie. The biggest variable in this game is the play-calling and performance of Arizona quarterback Kyler Murray. The rookie has been near disastrous so far this season and he enters this game following a 173 passing yard performance. Diving deeper into that passing yard stat, he needed 30 completions to get that total yardage which is less than six yards per completion. To make matters even worse, Murray was sacked eight times in the loss against Carolina, and the 16 sacks he’s taken so far this year is the second-most of any quarterback through three weeks since 2002. The offense is a complete mess right now for Arizona and I’m not sure they can fix it against a tough Seattle defense. Give me the quarterback and offense that are proven winners. The Seahawks and Russell Wilson will get the job done. The Cardinals are 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 games at home vs division opponents. The Seahawks are the pick here.

Over Under Pick

Even though Seattle’s defense might be tough and hard hitting, they are still allowing a lot of points on the road. At the moment, they are giving away 26 points on the road and Arizona has the opportunity to score some points in this game especially if they are chasing early. Arizona has been behind in 95% of games this season (the only time they weren’t was against the Panthers in the 1st quarter this year). Expect the same here as Seattle jumps to an early lead and Arizona has to park the run game and play catch up. With Arizona passing the ball early and often, Seattle is bound to allow some big plays. They are allowing 318.3 yards per game and, remember, last year they allowed 354.9 yards per game. This one is going to be wild and crazy as the Over is 6-1 in Seahawks last 7 games overall as well as 5-1 in Seahawks last 6 games following a ATS loss. Give me the Over here as this game is an ugly high-scoring affair.

Sun, Sep 29th - 4:05pm ET:
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Los Angeles Rams

Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Los Angeles Rams
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LA Rams -10.0 Point Spread
-111
Over 50.5 Game Totals
-111

Against The Spread Pick

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers blew an 18 point lead against the New York Giants and a QB making his first start just a week ago and now they face the Rams. Los Angeles have covered five of the last eight games where they have been favorite of at least seven points. Los Angeles has yet to really blown out anyone this season, but all of that will change on Sunday. The Rams were the best offensive team at home last season as they averaged 36.3 points at the Coliseum in 2018. Even better for the Rams, quarterback Goff was practically the best QB playing in front of his home crowd with 342 passing yards, 1.75 TDs and 0.375 INT per game. Goff was shaken up a bit in Week 3 against a tough Browns team on primetime, but expect another cool and collective Goff throwing bombs at the Coliseum once again. Tampa Bay just allowed 336 passing yards and 2 touchdowns Daniel Jones, who to be fair to them was historically good for a debut. Imagine what will happen with Goff and his sidekick McVay leading the way on Sunday. LA Rams are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games against an opponent in the NFC conference and this is one of my best bets in Week 4. Take the Rams -10.0

Over Under Pick

The Buccaneers have lost seven of their last eight on the road as the defense has been the weak point in this team. They are allowing 25.7 PPG thus far this season and the Rams, who are going to be the only ones scoring, are going to run up the score. Los Angeles has yet to really hit their stride on offense, but their defense is one of the best in the league, conceding 16.3 points per game. Los Angeles has yet to allow more than 10 points at home this season, as well as allow a single TD at home. Expect the Rams to pour on the points while Tampa Bay struggles to get past even six points in this game. The Over is 5-2 in Rams last 7 home games vs. a team with a losing road record as the OVER is the play here.

Sun, Sep 29th - 4:25pm ET:
Minnesota Vikings @ Chicago Bears

Minnesota Vikings
Chicago Bears
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MIN Vikings +2.5 Point Spread
-111
Under 38.5 Game Totals
-111

Against the Spread Pick

The Minnesota Vikings and Chicago Bears both trail the Packers in the NFC North, so they both could really use a win here. I haven’t been impressed at all with the Bears this season, and if it weren’t for a controversial roughing the passer penalty in the final minute of their Week 2 win over the Broncos, they’d be 1-2. Outside of a close loss to Green Bay, the Vikings have been nearly perfect. Their defense is almost as good as Chicago’s, and their offense is a lot more threatening. Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs might be the most talented receiving duo in the league, and they should be able to have some success against this Bears secondary that isn’t as good as it was last year. Chicago has allowed teams to move the ball on them this year, and they rely too much on their pass-rush. If Minnesota’s improved offensive line can keep Kirk Cousins upright, they’re going to win this game.

Over Under Pick

Even though this total is very low, you should still take the under. Mitchell Trubisky is one of the worst starting quarterbacks in the league, and I don’t expect him to have any success here. Vikings head coach Mike Zimmer has his team stuck in the 1990’s, and he has instructed offensive coordinator Kevin Stefanski to call extremely conservative games. In Minnesota’s Week 1 win over the Falcons, Cousins shockingly only attempted ten passes the entire game. This one should be played at a snail-ish pace, with both teams attempting to establish the run and pounding the ball into the line of scrimmage.

Sun, Sep 29th - 4:25pm ET:
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Denver Broncos

Jacksonville Jaguars
Denver Broncos
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JAX Jaguars +3.0 Point Spread
+100
Under 38.5 Game Totals
-111

Against The Spread Pick

It is a tale of two tapes as the Jacksonville Jaguars head onto the road to take on the Denver Broncos. Both teams are entering this game with their offense in the bottom tier. The Broncos are averaging 15.3 points per game and Jacksonville 19.3. However, the biggest stat that separates these two offensive teams is the yards per play. Denver has been playing it safe all season long, they are ranked 24th in the league with 5 yards per play. On the flip side, Jacksonville has gotten dangerous with new quarterback Gardner Minshew, opening up the playbook and averaging 6.3 yards per play which is 7th in the league. Small lean goes to the Jaguars offense, but what about the defense? Some bettors might actually favor the Broncos by a landslide because of the big names on that side of the ball, but you might be shocked. Jacksonville has one of the best pass rushes in the league and have collected a league-best 13 sacks on the season. Remember Von Miller and Bradley Chubb? The Denver defense is the ONLY TEAM this season not to record a sack. With the amount of talent in Denver, this defense is simply not getting the job done. Jacksonville is getting pressure every game and are top 10 in points allowed per game with 20. Surprise of the day: Jacksonville will showcase why they have a way better defense than Denver and will shut down this game. The Road team is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings as well as the Jaguars being 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings. Give me the Jaguars in this defensive battle.

Over Under Pick

Even though the Denver defense has yet to live to their full potential, they are still getting the job done and giving a chance for Joe Flacco to squeeze out a victory. Last week the Denver defense held Aaron Rodgers to 235 yards and one touchdown. They also held the rushing game to 77 yards. This is going to be a back-and-forth game with the punters getting their name called a lot. Both Denver and Jacksonville are in the bottom ranks of scoring and that will not change on Sunday. The Under is 5-0-1 in Broncos last 6 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game as well as 8-0 in the Broncos’ last 8 home games. Give me the Under in this low-scoring mile-high game.

Sun, Sep 29th - 8:20pm ET:
Dallas Cowboys @ New Orleans Saints

Dallas Cowboys
New Orleans Saints
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NO Saints +2.5 Point Spread
-111
Under 47.0 Game Totals
-111

Against the Spread Pick

The New Orleans Saints will get their chance at revenge from last year’s primetime defeat as they host the Dallas Cowboys here on Sunday Night Football. They won’t have Drew Brees under center, but they were able to pick up a road win over the Seahawks with Teddy Bridgewater filling in last week. The Cowboys are 3-0 and are being hyped up as a Super Bowl contender, which I think is a bit premature. Dallas has undeniably looked impressive, but they’ve played the softest schedule imaginable. They’ve opened the season with the Giants, Redskins, and Dolphins, three of the worst five teams in the league. This is their first real test of the season, and it’s coming on the road in a nationally televised game in the toughest stadium to play in. The Superdome is going to be rocking, which should help the Saints immensely. Sean Payton will have another good gameplan cooked up to manage Bridgewater, and the Saints’ defense will shutdown Dak Prescott.

Over Under Pick

I like the under even more here. Prescott has only faced weak defenses so far this season, so this will be a bit of a shock to his system. The Cowboys will also be without Michael Gallup for this one, their number two receiver. The Saints have a strong defensive front, and I think they’ll be able to bottle up Ezekiel Elliott while Cameron Jordan leads a strong pass-rush against Prescott. The Saints beat Seattle last week, but I wasn’t impressed with Bridgewater. Payton was very conservative and let the defense win him the game, and I think he’ll try to follow a similar blueprint here.

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