Against the Spread Pick
Thursday Night Football here as the Chicago Bears host the Dallas Cowboys in a game both teams desperately need to win. While Chicago could technically sneak into the playoffs if they win out, I think it’s very unlikely. They play the Cowboys, Packers, Chiefs, and Vikings in their final four games, and I don’t see any way they win all of them. I think Chicago’s players realize this, and as such I’m not sure how motivated they will be. Dallas on the other hand is still in the driver’s seat in the NFC East despite a lackluster 6-6 record thanks to Philadelphia’s incompetence. The Cowboys are coming off a humiliating loss at home to the Bills, and now is the perfect time to buy-low. Mitch Trubisky finally had a decent game last week, but it was against a horrible Detroit defense that has been getting abused by everybody. He’s not going to make it two in a row, and you can safely take the Cowboys to cover the spread. Chicago’s weakness is their run defense, and I think Ezekiel Elliott will be able to wear them down.
Over Under Pick
The under also makes a lot of sense here. Chicago still has a very strong pass-rush and secondary, so I think Dallas will be pretty conservative on offense here and not ask Dak Prescott to do too much. Elliott should see a heavy workload, which will keep the clock running and the number of possessions limited. Trubisky has been arguably the league’s worst starting quarterback at times, and after a one-game rebound he should come crashing back down to earth here. Dallas has a talented defense, and I don’t see any way that Trubisky has success here.