NFL week one picks against the spread and straight up for every game this week. Get our free NFL week one expert picks below. Get free NFL picks every week of the season.

Thu, Sep 5th - 8:20pm ET:
Green Bay Packers @ Chicago Bears

Green Bay Packers
Chicago Bears
GB Packers +3.0 Point Spread
-105
Under 46.5 Game Totals
-111

Against the Spread Pick

The start of the 2019 NFL season is finally here, as the Chicago Bears host the Green Bay Packers on Thursday Night Football. The Bears are a modest favorite here but for a few reasons, I think the Packers will end up pulling off the upset. The Bears’ defense was the best in the league last year, but they lost several key pieces. Defensive coordinator Vic Fangio, the architect of the defense, left to take the head coaching job in Denver. Then starting cornerback Bryce Callahan and starting safety Adrian Amos both left in free agency. Aaron Rodgers became passive last year as his relationship with Mike McCarthy decayed, but he should be rejuvenated now in his first year in new coach Matt LaFleur’s system. Rodgers has a massive chip on his shoulder, and you don’t want to bet against him when he’s motivated. The Packers beat the Bears in Week 1 last year, and they’ll do it again this season. Take the Packers on the spread but consider some money line as well.

Over Under Pick

I also like the under a lot here. The Packers made upgrading the defense a priority this offseason, and they made some nice additions. In free agency, they added pass-rusher Za’Darius Smith, as well as Amos. They then used their first-round pick on linebacker Rashan Gary, who should contribute right away. The Bears lost some pieces on defense, but the unit will still be very good overall and they still have Khalil Mack. I’m not sold on Mitchell Trubisky and this Chicago offense, and this should be a hard-fought low scoring game between two bitter rivals.

Sun, Sep 8th - 1:00pm ET:
Los Angeles Rams @ Carolina Panthers

Los Angeles Rams
Carolina Panthers
CAR Panthers Money Line
+120
Under 50.0 Game Totals
-111

Money Line Pick

The Los Angeles Rams are coming off a Super Bowl appearance, and will visit the Carolina Panthers here in Week 1 as they look to start another journey back to the big game. The Panthers were 6-2 last season before Cam Newton got hurt, and then things went south in a hurry. Since they lost seven of their last eight games, people seem to have forgotten just how good they looked when Newton was healthy. The Rams rested all their starters during the preseason again, which is what they did last year. In Week 1 of 2018 they looked a bit rusty, letting a bad Raiders team hang around for three quarters. This Panthers team is a lot better than that, so if they get off to a slow start again they’ll be in big trouble. The Rams lost some key pieces during the offseason, and it’s anyone’s guess what Todd Gurley will look like. Carolina is going to cover this spread, and they’re also going to win this game outright.

Over Under Pick

I also like the under a lot here. The Rams’ offense looked sloppy in Week 1 last year after not playing during the preseason, and I expect the same here. Their offensive line lost stud guard Rodger Saffold in free agency, and they have two youngsters starting on the line without any real experience. I don’t expect Gurley to look like his old self here, and the running game will suffer as a result. Further, it doesn’t look like receiver Cooper Kupp will be 100 percent for this one after tearing his ACL toward the end of last season. This Carolina defense should be a lot better than it was last year, and they’ll keep this one pretty low scoring.

Sun, Sep 8th - 1:00pm ET:
Washington Redskins @ Philadelphia Eagles

Washington Redskins
Philadelphia Eagles
PHI Eagles -10.0 Point Spread
-111
Under 45.0 Game Totals
-111

Against the Spread Pick

Two NFC East will kickoff their respective seasons here as the Philadelphia Eagles host the Washington Redskins. Washington drafted Dwayne Haskins in the first-round back in April, but they’ve opted to go with veteran journeyman Case Keenum here under center. The Eagles have legit Super Bowl aspirations, and that goal is certainly attainable if Carson Wentz can stay healthy. Wentz has been labeled as injury-prone by many in the media, and he has a lot of people to prove wrong this season. With that added motivation, I think Wentz comes out firing here. Washington was already going to be in a tough spot, and then their offensive line got decimated. Star left tackle Trent Williams won’t play here as he continues to start out, and the team is being forced to start former Giants draft-bust Ereck Flowers at left guard. This one could get ugly, and while I don’t usually like laying it with a spread this large, the Eagles are going to win this one by double-digits.

Over Under Pick

I also like the under here. Washington’s offense is going to be a mess, and I don’t see them scoring much at all. They have a mediocre at best quarterback, poor offensive line, and an uninspiring group of pass-catchers. Philly’s defense was really banged up last year but now that they’re back at full strength they should be a lot better. Fletcher Cox is one of the best defensive linemen in the league, and he’s going to completely wreck Washington’s running game here. The Redskins quietly have a pretty solid defense, so the Eagles won’t be able to do quite enough here to send this one over.

Sun, Sep 8th - 1:00pm ET:
Atlanta Falcons @ Minnesota Vikings

Atlanta Falcons
Minnesota Vikings
MIN Vikings -3.5 Point Spread
-111
Over 48.0 Game Totals
-111

Against the Spread Pick

The Minnesota Vikings and Atlanta Falcons are both coming off disappointing seasons, so this opening game is huge for both sides. Kirk Cousins failed to live up to expectations in his first year in Minnesota, but I think he’s in for a bounce back year. The Vikings made upgrading the offensive line a priority this offseason, so Cousins won’t be running for his life like he often was last year. If he has that time to throw, he should be able to pick apart this Falcons secondary. The Vikings have what is quite possible the best receiving duo in the league in Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs, and they also have Kyle Rudolph at tight end and Dalvin Cook out of the backfield. The team has playmakers on defense as well, and I think they could surprise a lot of people. Matt Ryan just isn’t the same away from home, so I think Minnesota is going to win this one by a comfortable margin.

Over Under Pick

I also like the over in this spot. Cousins has a huge chip on his shoulder from all the flak he caught this offseason, and I expect him to come out on fire. Atlanta’s defense was one of the worst in the league last year, and they didn’t have any semblance of a pass-rush. If Cousins is sitting pretty in the pocket, he’s going to have a field day here. Atlanta has an explosive passing game as well, with Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley at Ryan’s disposal. I think we see a pretty fast-paced game here that could turn into a shootout.

Sun, Sep 8th - 1:00pm ET:
Tennessee Titans @ Cleveland Browns

Tennessee Titans
Cleveland Browns
CLE Browns -5.5 Point Spread
-111
Under 45.5 Game Totals
-111

Against the Spread Pick

There’s been an unreal amount of hype surrounding the Cleveland Browns this offseason, and they’ll finally get the chance to show if they’re for real when they open the season against the Tennessee Titans here. For a few reasons, I think the Browns will be able to cover this spread. The Titans lost their offensive coordinator from last year Matt LaFleur, who left to take the head coaching job in Green Bay. To take his place they promoted Arthur Smith, who has never called plays before. Tennessee’s defense was one of the most overrated units in the league last year, and this new-look Browns offense with Baker Mayfield and Odell Beckham Jr. should torch them. Cleveland’s offense already looked like a juggernaut late last year once Freddie Kitchens took the reins, and now they added a top-five receiver to the mix. I’m expecting a big step back from the Titans in 2019, and the Browns will win this one by at least a touchdown.

Over Under Pick

I also like the under a lot here. The play-calling situation should be a mess for Tennessee, and I expect Marcus Mariota to struggle here with high-profile backup Ryan Tannehill breathing down his neck and causing a distraction. The Titans will also be without star left tackle Taylor Lewan, who is probably their most valuable player, after he was suspended for the first four games of the season for a PED violation. Lewan’s absence means that Browns edge rushers Myles Garrett and Olivier Vernon will be running wild, supplying constant pressure. Cleveland’s offensive line is a weakness as well, so I think both quarterbacks will have issues in the pocket on Sunday.

Sun, Sep 8th - 1:00pm ET:
Baltimore Ravens @ Miami Dolphins

Baltimore Ravens
Miami Dolphins
MIA Dolphins +7.0 Point Spread
-120
Under 37.5 Game Totals
-111

Against The Spread Pick

The Baltimore Ravens heading to Miami to take on the Dolphins is an interesting matchup to kick off the season. It has been a rollercoaster of emotions for the Dolphins as they have traded away LT Laremy Tunsil, LB Kiko Alonso and WR Kenny Stills within the past week. However, that should not scare you away from taking a chance with the Dolphins here. The Dolphins in the month of September are something else. It is extremely hard to play there and it shows as they are 5-0 against the spread in the past 5 games in Week 1. A lot of bettors might see those trades as an early sign of the Dolphins tanking this season, but trust that these Miami players are going to come out and prove they have something to play for. QB Ryan Fitzpatrick will get the start and, well, he has been on fire during Week 1 in recent years winning back-to-back Week 1 games. Fitzpatrick has played the Ravens three times in his career with a 56.82% passing completion and an 88.5 Quarterback rating. Ravens might be the bet between these two to make the playoffs, but the line is way too high to ignore the Dolphins here. I would even throw some change on the money line as well. Ignore the public and take the Fins.

Over Under Pick

Last year, everybody saw Ryan Fitzpatrick light up the Dome against the New Orleans Saints in Week 1, but it will be a different story here. Do not expect 70-yard bombs in this game. It is going to be a rough and tough one. The Baltimore Ravens are hungry and ready to prove why they have a top defense in the league and it will show. The Under is 4-1 in the Ravens’ last 5 games in Week 1 as well as 6-2 in Ravens last 8 games on grass. Give me the Under as this game ends somewhere in the 20-17 region.

Sun, Sep 8th - 1:00pm ET:
Kansas City Chiefs @ Jacksonville Jaguars

Kansas City Chiefs
Jacksonville Jaguars
KC Chiefs -3.5 Point Spread
-111
Under 52.0 Game Totals
-111

Against The Spread Pick

The Kansas City Chiefs are ready to rock ‘n’ roll with year 2 quarterback Patrick Mahomes as they head into Jacksonville to take on the Jaguars. The Chiefs stormed out of the gate in 2018 as Mahomes rightly earned an “Elite QB” classification as he threw for 50 touchdowns. Everybody should expect the fireworks to continue in Week 1 of the new season especially with Tyreek Hill back and starting. Don’t panic if the Jaguars take a lead early in the game with new quarterback Nick Foles. Mahomes will take care of the game in the 4th quarter. The Chiefs are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games in September as well as 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 road games. Give me the Chiefs and let Mahomes do what he does best. Win Everybody Money.

Over Under Pick

The Jacksonville offense does not have anything like the flair of the Chiefs and that gives the Under a nice look here. The Jaguars can easily prove something in Week 1 by slowing down Mahomes and I do see that a bit. However, can they last all four quarters against him? No. Looking at the trends, the Under is 3-0 in the last three meetings between these two teams. Kansas City can easily still drop 30 points and still have this game hit the Under with the lackluster offense of the Jaguars. The Under is 5-0 in Jaguars last 5 home games as well as 7-1 in Jaguars last 8 games on grass. Give me the Under here!

 

Sun, Sep 8th - 1:00pm ET:
Buffalo Bills @ New York Jets

Buffalo Bills
New York Jets
BUF Bills +3.0 Point Spread
-111
Over 40.0 Game Totals
-111

Against The Spread Pick

The Buffalo Bills are hoping to carry the slight momentum they had last season into New York/New Jersey to take on the Jets. Buffalo have always been a strong Week team and that should continue in this matchup. There has been a lot of “hype” around the Bills locker room knowing they have the potential for a playoff push. If they want that to happen, they need to win or (and better yet cover) on Sunday. They are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 Week 1 game and seem to be ready to unleash their new backfield after cutting LeSean McCoy. The Bills are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games on FieldTurf and the Jets will be on their heels all game. New York is 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games as well as 0-5-1 ATS in their last 6 games on FieldTurf. Even if it comes down to who are you going to trust with your money, Josh Allen or Sam Darnold, 100% vote Allen. Take Buffalo and the points.

Over Under Pick

There is no need to panic on the Against The Spread pick because the true winner between these two teams will come in the Total pick. The Over has hit in seven of the last nine Bills-Jets contests in New York and 6-1 in Jets last 7 home games. The total is way too low in my opinion as this came could easily top 50. With the addition of superstar back Le’Veon Bell and veteran Jamison Crowder expect the Jets offense to come out on fire as the Bills stay right next to them. Give me the Over here.

Sun, Sep 8th - 4:05pm ET:
Indianapolis Colts @ Los Angeles Chargers

Indianapolis Colts
Los Angeles Chargers
IND Colts +6.5 Point Spread
-111
Under 44.5 Game Totals
-111

Against the Spread Pick

The Indianapolis Colts will kickoff the post-Andrew Luck era here on the road against the Los Angeles Chargers. Jacoby Brissett will make his highly anticipated 2019 debut just days after signing a new two-year deal to be Indy’s leader. Oddsmakers have the Colts as 6.5 point underdogs, and I think they’ll be able to cover that spread relatively easily. Brissett has been practicing with the first-team all offseason as Luck was sidelined, so it’s not like he’s being suddenly thrust into the starting role with no preparation. Brissett looked pretty capable during his 2017 starts, and that was with a much worse coaching staff and supporting cast around him. The Chargers are also pretty banged up here, as they’ll be missing star safety Derwin James and left tackle Russell Okung. Los Angeles plays in a stadium that seats less than 30,000 people, so it’s not like they have much of a home-field advantage to speak of. Take the points here.

Over Under Pick

I also like the under a lot here. Brissett is competent, but he’s not anything special under center. This Colts defense took huge strides last year under defensive coordinator Matt Eberflus, and they have a lot of intriguing young talent. Second-year player Darius Leonard is already one of the best linebackers in the league, and the Chargers’ running game will be a lot worse without Melvin Gordon in the backfield as he continues his holdout. Los Angeles’ offensive line is quietly among the worst in the entire league, and I think both teams will get after the opposing quarterback here.

Sun, Sep 8th - 4:05pm ET:
Cincinnati Bengals @ Seattle Seahawks

Cincinnati Bengals
Seattle Seahawks
SEA Seahawks -9.5 Point Spread
-111
Over 44.0 Game Totals
-111

Against The Spread Pick

The Cincinnati Bengals are looking for one of the biggest upsets in Week 1 as they travel to Seattle to take on the Seahawks. This game opened up in favor of Seattle at -8.0, however, it is climbing and climbing. I’m not a fan of big lines, but there is a reason why this line keeps going up and up and will most likely hit double digits come kick-off. Even though the Bengals are looking forward to unleashing Joe Mixon in the wild, he is not going to love seeing new Seahawk Jadeveon Clowney bearing down on him. Also, without AJ Green the Bengals offense has no strong threat and will fail multiple times in this game. Anything can happen in Week 1 and so I’m going to play with caution, especially with the line this large. Wager small on Seattle as they are  14-0 SU and 12-2 ATS in its last 14 September home games. They are also 18-3 SU in their last 21 when hosting an East Coast team.

Over Under Pick

Now, this is the pick where the money truly lays. Instead of going after that large spread, the Over in this game is looking like a diamond in the rough. Of course, Clowney to the Seahawks is a huge addition to the defense, but that is not going to solve all of their problems. Expect Mixon to get some open looks especially early in the game as the Seahawks defense might have to adjust to their original play call. Of course, Seattle have always been the favored team in September as without fail they come out with a bang. Give me the Over here as it has hit in six of Seattle’s last seven games against the Bengals and in eight of Seattle’s last nine games overall. It is also 5-0 in the Bengals last 5 games in September. Over is a STRONG pick here.

Sun, Sep 8th - 4:25pm ET:
San Francisco 49ers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

San Francisco 49ers
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
TB Buccaneers Money Line
-111
TB Buccaneers -1.0 Point Spread
+100
Under 50.0 Game Totals
-111

Against The Spread Pick

The San Francisco 49ers are ready for a new year of football as they begin the season heading to Florida to take on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Lines originally opened up in favor of Tampa Bay (-2), but now this game is practically a pick-em. Sharp money has been put on the 49ers, mainly due to a healthy and ready quarterback in Jimmy Garropollo and third-year coach Kyle Shanahan ready to unleash his new offense. However, do not underestimate the power of Bucs’ head coach Bruce Arians. The veteran loves to start hot and it shows in his past three years of coaching. He holds a 7-2 SU record and 8-1 ATS record in the past three years during the first three home games of the season. The Buccaneers are ready to throw all day on the 49ers and will shock the world once again by taking down another potential playoff team in Week 1. The Buccaneers are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall as well as 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 vs. NFC.

Over Under Pick

Right now, the total is sitting at 50 and that is the perfect time to hit it for the Under. The total has gone UNDER in 13 of the Bucs’ last 19 games vs the Niners. I do expect Winston and company to score a good amount  but both of these teams can easily finish in the 20s and still hit the Under. I would have stayed on the over if the total was near 46-47, but this baby keeps on climbing. The Under is 5-1 in the Buccaneers’ last 6 home games as well as 4-1 in their last 5 vs. the NFC. Take the Under and watch these two teams duel it out in Florida.

Sun, Sep 8th - 4:25pm ET:
Detroit Lions @ Arizona Cardinals

Detroit Lions
Arizona Cardinals
ARZ Cardinals +2.5 Point Spread
+100
Over 47.0 Game Totals
-111

Against The Spread Pick

All eyes will be on rookie quarterback Kyler Murray as he starts his first NFL game against the Detroit Lions in front of his home crowd Sunday. The lines for this game have moved a lot in favor of Detroit. It started as a Pick em game and the Lions are now -2.5 favorites. Nobody wants to put money on the rookie, but maybe there is a good reason why. Looking back at the past three seasons for the Lions, they have a record of 1-5 in the first two road games of the season. Not to mention, Matthew Stafford comes into this season coming off his worst year ever with the Lions. A lot is on the line for the Lions. They have to stop the duo threat of Murray and Johnson in the backfield. I expect head coach Kliff Kingsbury to draw up the perfect plan for Murray for this Week 1 matchup, mainly because nobody has really seen what he can do. I do expect the Cardinals to struggle more down the road (once teams figure out how to stop Murray) but for right now, they squeeze past the Lions with a huge win. The Home team is 12-2 ATS in their last 14 meetings.

Over Under Pick

To go along with my earlier statements, Kingsbury is going to have a couple of drives already in place for Murray which will succeed against a team that has no idea what to expect. Expect a high scoring first half as both teams figure each other out late in the game. Regardless of when they figure each other out, points will be scored and often. The Over is 10-4 in the last 14 meetings and Over 11-1 in Lions last 12 games in Week as well as 4-1 in Lions last 5 games in September. Ride with the public here and take the OVER!

Sun, Sep 8th - 4:25pm ET:
New York Giants @ Dallas Cowboys

New York Giants
Dallas Cowboys
DAL Cowboys -7.0 Point Spread
+100
Under 45.5 Game Totals
-111

Against The Spread Pick

The Dallas Cowboys are going to start their 2019 regular season against their best friends the New York Giants on Sunday afternoon. These two teams will be going back and forth, to say the least. The Cowboys defense is hungry and ready to make another meal out of Eli Manning as they have in the past. The Cowboys are 4-0 SU and ATS in the past four meetings with New York and there is no reason to go against them at this point. With Ezekiel Elliot back in training from Wednesday he is likely to play in Week 1. Even if he does not, the Cowboys defense, which allowed less than 20 points at home last season, will be up for the task. The ‘Boys were also one of seven teams who held their rushing yards per game allowed under 100 yards. Expect the same as the Cowboys play a controlled and well-balanced game and defeat the Giants by the final score of 27-13.

Over Under Pick

As stated above, this Over Under Pick will also go hand in hand with the ATS pick. The Cowboys defense will be lights out especially against Manning running the offense. Barkley will be the offense once again and showcase why he was taken No.1 overall in a lot of fantasy leagues, but won’t help when they are nowhere near the RedZone. The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Dallas’ last 6 games against NY Giants as well as Under in 4-1 Cowboys last 5 games in Week 1. It is the smart and safe bet here as there should not be any issues of both Eli Manning and Dak Prescott staying average and keeping this Total WAY Under.

Sun, Sep 8th - 8:20pm ET:
Pittsburgh Steelers @ New England Patriots

Pittsburgh Steelers
New England Patriots
PIT Steelers +5.5 Point Spread
-111
Under 50.5 Game Totals
-111

Against the Spread Pick

The defending champion New England Patriots will host the Pittsburgh Steelers on Sunday Night Football. The Steelers are coming off a tumultuous season, and they’ve finally got rid of the two clouds hanging over the franchise in Antonio Brown and Le’Veon Bell. Now that the distractions are gone, Pittsburgh can finally get back to playing football. They still have a solid receiving corp led by JuJu Smith-Schuster, they still have a great offensive line, they still have a good young running back in James Conner, and they still have a Hall of Fame quarterback in Ben Roethlisberger. The Steelers were a big disappointment in 2018, but I think that had more to do with all the drama than anything else. This team should be much improved, and they have exciting talent at every position. The Patriots had a lot of turnover from their Super Bowl winning squad. They parted ways with defensive coordinator Brian Flores and a slew of other assistant coaches. They also lost star defensive end Trey Flowers and starting left tackle Trent Brown, as well as legendary tight end Rob Gronkowski. At the very least, the Steelers will keep this one close.

Over Under Pick

I also like the under a lot here. It’s a primetime game in the first week of the season, and both offenses should be rusty. Brady doesn’t have Gronkowski anymore and he also will have a left tackle making his first career NFL appearance. Making matters even worse, Patriots starting center David Andrews was recently sidelined by blood clots. As such, I think Brady’s protection could be subpar here. The Steelers lost their highly regarded offensive line coach Mike Munchak this summer, so Big Ben’s protection could suffer as well. Both pass-rushes should have some success.

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