Against the Spread Pick
Thursday Night Football here as the Denver Broncos host the Kansas City Chiefs. The Broncos have won back to back games to crawl back to 2-4 and give them some hope, while the Chiefs have dropped two straight to fall to 4-2. Unfortunately for Denver, I think their hot streak ends here. The Broncos beat the Chargers and Titans, two teams that are in free-fall right now. On a short week you always have to give the edge to the better coach who can game-plan with less time, and that’s obviously Andy Reid. Reid is one of the best schemers in the league, so he has the clear edge with limited time. Patrick Mahomes isn’t going to lose three straight games, and now he has his best weapon back in Tyreek Hill. Joe Flacco hasn’t had to do anything the last two weeks as Denver’s defense has carried him, but that won’t be the case here. Kansas City is obviously going to score, so Flacco will finally have some pressure to carry the load. He won’t rise to the occasion, and the Chiefs will win this one easily.
Over Under Pick
I also like the under in this spot. Denver has been trying to establish a run-first identity, and that’ll continue here. The Chiefs have an underrated secondary, so I wouldn’t expect much from Flacco here. Mahomes has Hill back now, but he’s still missing two starters on his offensive line and is also dealing with a bum ankle. Even during their two-game win streak, the Broncos have only totaled 36 points. I think the Chiefs will want to take a little bit off Mahomes’ shoulders, and be a bit more conservative with their game-plan than usual. This is a divisional game between two opponents who are very familiar with one another, and I think this one should be pretty low scoring.