UFC 322: Leon Edwards vs. Carlos Prates Prediction for Saturday, 11/15/25

The second fight on the Main Card at UFC 322 will see Leon Edwards take on Carlos Prates. This will be a fight in the UFC Welterweight division. Edwards enters this fight with an MMA record of 22-5 and 14-4 in the UFC. He is averaging 2.62 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 54%. Edwards is absorbing 2.42 strikes and has a striking defense of 53%. His grappling is also decent, averaging 1.18 takedowns every 15 minutes. Edwards has a takedown accuracy of 36% and a takedown defense of 63%.

Prates enters this fight with an MMA record of 22-7 and 6-1 in the UFC. He is averaging 3.82 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 54%. Prates is absorbing 4.80 strikes per minute and has a striking defense of 48%. He has shown little grappling ability, averaging just 0.23 takedowns every 15 minutes. That said, he has a takedown accuracy of 100% and a takedown defense of 84%.

Prates is the clear favorite in this fight, but still looks to be the best betting option. He has the striking volume advantage over Edwards, and while his grappling is weak, Prates has a takedown defense that is strong enough to limit Edwards’ advantage. Further, Edwards has lost each of his last 2 UFC fights in a row, while Prates has lost just once in the UFC. Therefore, given the form of Prates and his advantage in striking, backing Prates to win will be our play.