MLB Picks

We head to Pittsburgh on Friday night for the start of a series between the Atlanta Braves and Pittsburgh Pirates. The Pirates definitely have the situational advantage, as they had Thursday off while the Braves needed 11 innings to dispatch the Reds. Still, it is really hard to back the Pirates right now. They have lost 4 consecutive series and 7 straight games, including back-to-back sweeps by the Cardinals and Padres. Everything seems in disarray in Pittsburgh and it is catching the Braves at a bad time, too. Atlanta has finally righted the ship and started to climb the standings. I think this is a pretty easy Braves ML pick.

The pitching matchup is mundane at best. Bryce Elder and Bailer Falter will take the ball for their respective teams. Elder has been adequate for Atlanta, managing 5 or 6 innings in each start. He isn’t a power arm, but the Pirates have the second-worst slugging percentage versus right-handed pitching — so Elder should be fine on Friday. Falter is a pedestrian lefty. He will post a quality start now and again, and then he will get chased in the fourth inning. He has given up a fair number of homers and the wind is blowing out on a cool night, so that could be an issue. I worry a bit about the Atlanta bullpen following an extra-inning game, but even with that I can’t bring myself to bet on the Pirates. They are a mess.

Braves vs Pirates prediction: Atlanta ML (-150) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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In this game, we will see the Texas Rangers take on the Detroit Tigers. This will be the first meeting between these two teams this year. Texas is coming off a shutout loss to the Boston Red Sox yesterday. The Tigers are coming off a double header against the Colorado Rockies where they scored 21 total runs. Lucky for them, they are coming back to Detroit where they hold a record of 13-3 this year. Another positive for Detroit is that they are starting Tarik Skubal on the mound. He has been great this year pitching 40.2 innings and only giving up 10 runs. It is even more impressive that he has only given up 2 runs through 17 innings at home. On the other side, the Rangers will be starting Patrick Corbin. He has been pitching significantly better this year compared to last year. Last year, Skubal ranked 2^nd in ERA with a 2.39 while Corbin ranked dead last with an ERA of 5.62.

On the hitting side, Detroit currently leads the MLB with a batting average of .262. They also rank 2^nd in runs scored (208) and 3^rd in total hits (340). On the other side, the Rangers rank 25^th in batting average (.232), 28^th in runs scored (123), an 25^th in total hits (285). While there is a clear difference in hitting, we must also consider the bullpen play. The Tigers bullpen holds an ERA of 2.43 giving up 34 runs on the year while the Rangers bullpen has an ERA of 4.03 and have given up 60 runs this year. With Detroit coming off a double-header, there can be concern about the bullpen, but that is unnecessary. The starters for the Tigers on Thursday accounted for 14 of 18 total innings played and they only used 3 relief pitchers. In this one, the statistics tell a very one-sided story and so we are going to hope that the statistics don’t lie. Tigers on the run line is the play.

Rangers vs. Tigers Prediction: Tigers -1.5 (-125) available at the time of publishing. Playable at that number.

The Cubs and Mets are set to begin a 3-game weekend series with a Friday night matchup at Citi Field. New York is happy to return home following a 6-game road trip, while Chicago hits the road on the heels of a 3-game home series against San Francisco. The Mets have enjoyed life at their home ballpark, as they are 13-3 at Citi Field so far this season. They dropped back-to-back 1-run games in their last 2 home games, so they will be eager to get back in the win column.

Clay Holmes is slated to start on the mound for the Mets. He is off to a solid start in 2025, owning a strong 2.95 ERA through 36.2 innings. Holmes has done a great job of putting his team in a position to win, as the Mets have won 6 of his 7 starts — including both of his starts at Citi Field by a combined score of 17-9. On the other side, Jameson Taillon will start for the Cubs. Taillon has struggled away from Wrigley Field; his ERA jumps from 2.50 at home to 4.98 on the road, and his BAA goes from .197 to .238. With the way they have been playing at home so far this season, consider backing the Mets in this Friday night matchup.

Cubs vs Mets prediction: New York ML (-160) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The Thursday slate kicks off with Twins vs Orioles in a series finale. The Twins have won the first 2 games in the series and the Orioles have only managed 3 total runs thus far. The Twins have now won 4 games in a row, and the Orioles have dropped 4 in a row. To me, the Orioles are almost unbettable at the moment. It is astounding how sharply they have fallen off, and it is mostly their starting pitching, bullpen and offense — yeah, everything. Until they figure some things out, I’m just going to be over here betting the other side. Give me the Twinkies in this one.

Joe Ryan was scheduled to start, but he is sick, so Bailey Ober is starting on short rest. Ober has been great this season. If we toss out his first start, which always has wild variance, he has allowed a single run in 5 of his 6 starts. He will face Dean Kremer. Kremer was excellent in his last start, but over the course of the season, he has allowed 5 or more runs in 4 of his 7 starts (3 of 6 if we want to use the same “first start doesn’t count” standard I used for Ober). To me, Kremer is not trustworthy, much like the entire rest of this Oriole roster right now. Give me the Twins in this spot, and the only thing preventing me from hammering this one is the risk of Ober on short rest.

Twins vs Orioles prediction: Twins ML (-160) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The Texas Rangers take on the Boston Red Sox in a series-deciding matchup with a pair of loose cannons starting on the mound. Jack Leiter (4.58 ERA, 1.30 WHIP) gets the nod for the Rangers coming off his worst outing of the year in which he surrendered 8 hits and 6 earned runs in 4.1 innings. He faces a tough matchup as the Boston offense has been clicking lately, ranking top-10 in wRC+ and wOBA over the last 14 days. Furthermore, the righty is outperforming his xBA (.259) and falls in the bottom half of the league in chase %, whiff %, strikeout rate and walk rate. 

While Boston’s starter Brayan Bello (2.55 ERA, 1.19 WHIP) has appealing stats at first glance, the numbers indicate he’s due for some serious regression in several areas. For starters, the righty holds a 5.38 xERA — which falls in the 16th percentile — and falls in the bottom 5th of the league in xBA, strikeout rate, avg exit velocity and chase %. The Texas offense has been shaky at times but has posted 18 runs in the last 3 games, and is certainly capable of cracking the egg that is Bello. With unreliable starters and below-average bullpens in relief, I’ll back this matchup to go over 9.5 runs for the 2nd game in a row.

Rangers vs Red Sox prediction: Over 9.5 (+110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number to -115.

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In the first game of today’s doubleheader between the Tigers and the Rockies, Detroit will send right-hander Casey Mize to the mound. While Mize has had his ups and downs this season, he holds a 5-1 record with a 2.70 ERA. The Tigers are coming off a hard-fought 8-6 win last night, and they’ll be counting on Mize to eat up some innings in Game 1 to give their bullpen a little rest as they were heavily utilized in last night’s matchup. The Tigers have the momentum heading into today’s doubleheader, as they’re 7-3 in their last 10 games. The Rockies continue to struggle, going just 2-8 in their last 10 games. 

Pitching remains a major concern for the Rockies, and today they’ll turn to Kyle Freeland, who is 0-4 with a 5.70 ERA on the season. Freeland has struggled to find consistency in his starts this year, and it doesn’t help that his team offers little run support as they rank last in the majors in batting average (.213), runs scored (3.2 per game), while leading the majors in strikeouts (352). As for the Tigers, they’re 8th in batting average (.256), 4th in runs scored (5.2 per game) and 6th in home runs (47). All things considered, this Detroit team has a significant advantage at the plate and on the mound. In addition, the Rockies have one of the league’s worst bullpen ERAs (5.38) while Detroit has one of the best (3.04). Looking at today’s matchup, the Tigers should have no issue getting the job done today in Game 1, and I think the Tigers will win by multiple runs.

Tigers vs Rockies prediction: Tigers -1.5 (-120) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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In this game, we will see the Cincinnati Reds take on the Atlanta Braves. This will be the 4th game between these 2 teams and Braves currently lead the series 2-1. Through the first 2 games, the pitching for both of these teams was great. In the 3rd game, we saw the Reds win even though they lost Hunter Greene to a groin injury after 3 innings. Starting the game today will be Nick Lodolo of the Reds and Spencer Schwellenbach of the Braves. Both of these pitchers have the potential to be very good, but both are coming off of their worst starts of the year. Lodolo pitched 5.1 innings, giving up 10 hits and 6 earned runs against the Nationals. Schwellenbach gave up 8 hits and 6 earned runs in just 3.1 innings to the Dodgers. Both of these guys are looking to bounce back in this one.

On the hitting side, the Reds have scored 181 runs on 308 hits. They have scored 99 of those runs on 172 hits in road games. The Braves have scored 144 runs on 290 hits with 72 runs being scored in their home games. Given these statistics, the Reds’ batting has a slightly higher potential in this one, especially considering they were able to break the hitting slump in their game yesterday. Additionally, Schwellenbach has given up 25 hits in his 24.2 innings at home, while Lodolo has given up 16 hits in his 25.1 innings on the road. Lodolo currently holds a 1.07 ERA in away games. With Schwellenbach being in a slump after his incredible start to the season, Lodolo’s impressive pitching away from Cincinnati, and the fact that the starting pitchers determined the winners in their previous games, we are taking the Reds to tie the series in Atlanta at enticing plus-money odds.

Reds vs Braves prediction: Reds ML (+145) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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One of the better series of this weekend’s MLB slate comes in the NL West, where the Arizona Diamondbacks are set to host the World Series favorite Los Angeles Dodgers in the first of a 4-game series on Thursday. Arizona was a team that I was pretty high on entering this season, but things have been pretty up and down for the Diamondbacks to this point. Pitching has been the issue for Arizona in 2025, as the Diamondbacks are just 25th in team ERA to this point (4.47), while also sitting at 18th in hits allowed and WHIP. The struggles should continue for starter Brandon Pfaadt (5.31 xERA, .306 xBA) on Thursday, a pitcher whose advanced metrics and batted-ball data suggest that regression is coming compared to his actual results this season. Facing a Dodgers lineup that’s loaded with talent and professional hitters from top to bottom is not exactly the antidote for a shaky stable of pitchers, and I could certainly see Pfaadt and the Arizona bullpen struggling in this one.

On the other side, Los Angeles is sending Yoshinobu Yamamoto to the mound, which is typically a great sign for the Dodgers. The Japanese ace is in the midst of an outstanding start to the season (0.90 ERA, 32.2% strikeout rate, 61.5% ground ball rate). Unlike last season, the Dodgers’ ace has hit the ground running and has only surrendered 4 earned runs over his first 40 innings pitched, while striking out 49 in the process. Yamamoto has been tremendous against any level of competition, so he certainly shouldn’t struggle against this Arizona lineup. All things considered, let’s take the Dodgers to find the win column for the 9th time in their last 11 contests.

Dodgers vs Diamondbacks prediction: Dodgers ML (-160) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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