MLB Picks

The Miami Marlins are eyeing a sweep of the Colorado Rockies in today’s game as both teams vie to climb out of the National League basement. Miami secured a 4-1 victory last night and will rely on Edward Cabrera (1-1, 5.28 ERA) today. He is set to face right-hander Peter Lambert (2-1, 4.67 ERA) of the Rockies.

Lambert is set to make only his second start of the season after joining the rotation due to Kyle Freeland’s injury a few weeks back. Lambert did make a relief appearance on April 25, tossing 2.2 scoreless innings against the Padres. Meanwhile, Cabrera will make his fourth start — aiming to bounce back from his last outing against the Nationals in which he surrendered 5 runs on 4 hits in just 4.1 innings.

Both teams rank among the bottom 5 in pitching, with the Marlins holding a 4.80 team ERA and the Rockies coming in at a 6.00. Their hitting stats also reflect their struggles, with the Marlins batting .223 with a .609 OPS while the Rockies sit 14th in the league with a .241 batting average and .674 OPS. Colorado scores 3.77 runs per game and Miami scores 3.59. With both pitchers having their ups and downs this season, I think both teams will be able to score enough runs to push this game over.  

Over 7.5 available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.  

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Luis Gil delivered a standout performance last night against Baltimore, tossing 6.1 scoreless innings and striking out 5 to secure a much needed win for the Yankees, bringing them level with the Orioles at the top of the AL East. The only 2 runs in the game came off the bat of Oswaldo Cabrera’s 2-run homer in the 5th inning. Today the Yankees turn to the left-hander Carlos Rodon (2-1, 2.48 ERA) to maintain their momentum, while Kyle Bradish makes his season debut for the Orioles after coming off the injured list.

Rodon has been impressive in recent outings, throwing 6.0 innings against the Brewers while allowing just 1 run while striking out 8. There isn’t anything to base this year’s performance on for Bradish, but in 2023 he was nearly lights out. Bradish had a 2.83 ERA with 168 strikeouts in 168.2 innings pitched. Throughout his career, Bradish is 1-1 against the Yankees with a 3.54 ERA and 19 strikeouts.  

With both teams eager to claim sole possession of the AL East lead and well-rested bullpens, today’s game should be an exciting one. While Bradish’s performance remains uncertain, Rodon’s recent outings show he is ready to take on the Orioles in today’s matchup.  The Yankees should have a few scoring opportunities against Bradish, but they need to find a way to capitalize on those chances; they have only scored 4 runs in this entire series. Look for the Yankees to find a way to get it done and take control of the AL East before heading to Detroit.

Yankees ML at -135 available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.  

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The Chicago Cubs and New York Mets finish up their 4-game series at Citi Field this afternoon. Although each of the first 3 games fell under the game total, Thursday appears to be favorable for each team’s lineup. Chicago will be playing its 10th game in as many days, while the Mets will play for their 7th consecutive day — leaving the teams’ bullpen vulnerable. While the bullpens might be thin, my biggest concern is the starting pitching matchup. Ben Brown and Adrian Houser take the ball for their respective ballclubs and neither one has put together a strong start to his season.

Brown is making his 4th start and 8th overall appearance for the Cubs while compiling a 4.30 ERA but a 5.78 xERA. Brown’s first 2 starts went smoothly enough, but his last outing on April 27 lasted just 3.2 innings after surrendering 3 earned runs on 7 hits. The underlying metrics for Brown don’t suggest much improvement, either, as his barrel percentage and hard-hit percentage both rank in the 4th percentile or lower. Houser, although having much more experience than Brown, also isn’t off to a hot start. Through his first 5 starts, Houser owns a 8.37 ERA and has given up 5 or more earned runs on 3 occasions. The most eye-popping statistic is the fact that Houser has just 14 strikeouts to 16 walks through 23.2 innings. Houser’s xERA, xBA, average exit velocity, chase rate and strikeout rate all rank in the 9th percentile or worse. I’m expecting some runs in this one.

Over 8.5 available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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It’s getaway day in Boston, so we have an afternoon game to cap off the series. The Red Sox won the first 2 games and are looking for the sweep before they head off to Minnesota for the weekend. The Giants are looking for their first win in Beantown before they head to Philadelphia. The Boston offense has finally gotten healthy, powering its way to 4 wins in a row. The starting pitching, like so much of the rest of the league, mostly sits on the IL and is the primary liability at the moment. I think this gives the Giants an advantage on Thursday.

The Sox will give the ball to Josh Winckowski to begin the game. Winckowski was pressed into service as a starter recently because Boston now has Nick Pivetta, Garrett Whitlock and Brayan Bello on the IL. Winckowski has yet to complete 4 full innings, and we shouldn’t expect him to work deep into this game. That puts a great deal of stress on the bullpen to cover the middle innings. The Giants, on the other hand, will go with the young arm of Kyle Harrison. He is getting better by the day as he learns at the big-league level. As a lefty, Harrison should be able to neutralize the dangerous bats of Rafael Devers and Jarren Duran — if he can navigate the rest of the lineup safely. Harrison is also very efficient, working 6.0 innings in 3 of his 5 starts while staying well below 100 pitches. If he can duplicate that effort, the Giants should be in good shape on Thursday. I like San Fran on the money line.

Giants ML at -105 available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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As the Washington Nationals and Texas Rangers prepare to square off in the rubber match of their 3-game series, all signs point to a pitcher’s duel at Globe Life Field. The pitching matchup features 2 starters in top form — Nathan Eovaldi for the Rangers and Mitchell Parker for the Nationals. Eovaldi has been stellar this season, posting a 3.00 ERA with 36 strikeouts over 30.0 innings. The veteran right-hander is coming off a strong outing in which he limited the Reds to just one run over 6.0 frames. On the other side, rookie southpaw Parker has been even better with a microscopic 1.69 ERA through his first 3 major-league starts.

Both offenses have been middling at best, with the Rangers ranking 14th in runs scored and the Nationals 20th. Globe Life Field itself is a pitcher’s park, favoring those on the mound. With 2 quality starters toeing the rubber and 2 offenses that have struggled to produce consistently, this game has all the makings of a low-scoring affair. For bettors, the smart money appears to be on Under 8. Eovaldi and Parker have the stuff to keep the bats quiet, making the under a highly attractive wager as these 2 clubs battle for a series win in Arlington.

Under 8 available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The Clevaland Guardians take on the Houston Astros Thursday in what has been a tightly contested series. The first two games both went into extra innings, the both teams getting a win a piece. 

The pitching matchup for the series finale Thursday is… poor. With that being said, the total is listed at 9.5 and the Astros are 9-19-2 against the over. Including 1-8-1 in their last 10 games. That is enough of a sample size to stay away from an enticing over. Instead, take the Guardians at plus money.

The Astros have been downright terrible through the first month of the season with a record of 10-20, while the Guardians have a mirror record of 20-10. This is one of those situations where you don’t want to overthink it. Just take the better team.

Logan Allen (5.46 ERA) boasts a .270 batting average against, and is facing an Astros lineup that averages 3rd in the league in batting average. However, the Guardians bullpen ranks 3rd in WAR, so if he puts out another shaky start the bullpen should be able to back him up. 

Astros Starter Spencer Arrighetti (10.97 ERA) has not been good. His longest start has been 4 innings, and does not get off to a hot start in games. He has a 12.00 ERA through three starts in the first inning, giving up a total of 4 earned runs. Expect the Guardians to take the lead early and hold on to it.

Guardians ML +105 at time of publishing playable to +100