We have a rematch of last year’s AFC Championship game on Sunday evening as the Cincinnati Bengals once again head to Arrowhead Stadium to battle the Kansas City Chiefs. Joe Burrow and the Bengals caused a massive upset in their demolition of the Bills last week, and now Burrow looks to improve his record against Mahomes to 4-0. Add in the layer of Mahomes being at less than 100%, and this is a very intriguing game. Who will move on to Super Bowl 57? Let’s get into our expert’s Bengals vs Chiefs picks, predictions and best bets.
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NFL Cincinnati Bengals vs Kansas City Chiefs expert predictions
As mentioned above, Burrow has faced Mahomes 3 times and he’s won all of them. The Bengals secured a huge comeback in last year’s AFC Championship to beat the Chiefs, and earlier this season Cincinnati also got the better of Kansas City. Now there’s a chance that the Bengals will get to play the Chiefs with Mahomes playing almost on one leg after the signal-caller was injured in last week’s win over the Jaguars. It’s a tough game to call, but the Bengals could have the upper hand in this matchup.
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Cincinnati Bengals vs Kansas City Chiefs spread, odds & betting lines
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing.
Point Spread: Bengals +1.5, Chiefs -1.5
Total Points Over/Under: 48 points
Money Line Odds: Bengals +106, Chiefs -124
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Cincinnati Bengals vs Kansas City Chiefs expert picks
We’ve got 2 standout NFL picks for the clash between the Bengals and Chiefs.
Bengals vs Chiefs point spread pick: Bengals +1.5 (-112)
It’s the AFC Championship game, as the Kansas City Chiefs prepare to do battle with the familiar foe that is the Cincinnati Bengals. Joe Burrow got the best of Patrick Mahomes when these teams first played this season and he did the same thing in last year’s AFC Championship. With Mahomes practically playing on one leg, I’m going with Burrow to do it once again. The Bengals were slept on for most of the second half of the season despite the fact that they haven’t lost a game since all the way back in October. Cincinnati has only lost one game against a non-division opponent all year, and that was by just 3 points on the road against the Cowboys back in Week 2. Mahomes and the Chiefs can insist all they want that his ankle is fine, but we all saw it get mangled in their win over the Jaguars last week.
There’s almost no way he is even close to 100 percent, and without any escapability he’s going to be a sitting duck in the pocket. When these teams first played earlier this season, Cincinnati defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo held Mahomes to just 223 yards, and that was without a high ankle sprain. The Bengals have been able to get their ground game going recently, and there are reasons to believe that will continue here. In their first game against the Chiefs Joe Mixon didn’t even play and Samaje Perine was able to rack up 106 yards on 5.0 yards per carry. Mixon had 105 last week on the road against a Bills defense that is tougher than Kansas City’s.
Be sure to check out our full Bengals vs Chiefs predictions
Bengals vs Chiefs Over/Under totals pick: Under 48 (-110)
The Patrick Mahomes injury has been wreaking havoc with the numbers for this AFC Championship game, not only with the side, but with the total as well. The last three meetings between these two teams, all decided by a field goal, all got to at least 51. So, it’s no surprise to see certain shops open this total at that number or higher. But with Mahomes not at 100% sharp bettors quickly bet the number down. While the public has brought the number back up a tad, keeping it above the key number of 47. Still, there is a sharp discrepancy as of the writing of this with just 33% of the tickets on the under, but nearly 60% of the money. Finally, referee Ron Torbert will call this game. Over the past two seasons, games officiated with Ron Torbert are 25-10 Under (71%) and Torbert called the 2nd fewest penalties in 2021. If defenses are allowed to play, that helps the under greatly.
The Chiefs have actually scored less at home this year than on the road with the total going under in six of the last seven at Arrowhead. Cincinnati has had similar success to the under on the road with 11 of their last 15 games away from Paul Brown Stadium staying under the total. Even with both teams being statistically bad in the run game, it’s hard to see a shootout coming. It will be very cold, and wind is expected. I think there will be a slow start to both offenses as there typically are in big games like this, so a 1st half under doesn’t feel like a bad play either. While it won’t shock anyone to see both these teams scoring in the high-20s or low 30s, with Mahomes injury it’s tough to back that notion. What shapes up to be a close game should keep the scoring down.
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Cincinnati Bengals vs Kansas City Chiefs expert predictions
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