Caleb Wilfinger
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After a long and grueling regular season, the college football postseason is finally here. I’ve gone 4-1 in these bowl season columns so far — bringing me to 29-20 (about 59.2%) since Week 2. I’ve said all season that some regression was to be expected after we cashed at an unsustainable 63% rate a year ago, but we’re off to a great start in bowl season, so let’s keep that momentum going!
With the holiday season behind us, the third full week of Bowl season is here and we have a compelling slate ahead of us, including a ton of fun games at the Group of 5 and Power 5 level. With Wednesday’s games rapidly approaching, here is a look at my best bet for the trio of games at our disposal. And remember, you can check out all of our NCAAF predictions for picks on all of the action.
West Virginia Mountaineers -6.5 over North Carolina Tar Heels (-110)
Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to 7.
This has been a very eventful season for both of these programs, and we get to see it conclude in the annual Duke’s Mayo Bowl in Charlotte, North Carolina. While the Tar Heels are going to be playing in their home state, they are underdogs by nearly a full touchdown in this game, and for good reason. For starters, quarterback Drake Maye has opted out of the bowl game, which shouldn’t exactly come as a surprise to anyone paying attention to next year’s NFL Draft boards. Maye is an excellent prospect who should make an NFL team very happy, and it goes without saying that his absence in this game is a great loss for North Carolina. In addition to starting a backup under center, the Tar Heels have opt outs from 5 other NFL-bound players and could also be missing starting tight end, 2 wide receivers and starters at the cornerback and safety positions for this one. This team is absolutely decimated and it’s hard to imagine they show up with their best effort.
On the other side, West Virginia had some tertiary players hit the transfer portal, but outside of that the Mountaineers have a major motivational edge in this one. They want to run the ball and they should see plenty of success against a North Carolina defense that ranks outside the top 100 in EPA per rush and outside the top 90 in EPA per play (CFB-Graphs). I don’t see West Virginia’s defense struggling to slow down a Tar Heels offense that will look like a completely different unit than the explosive unit that we’ve seen all season long. The Mountaineers were picked last in the preseason Big 12 media poll and have played with a chip on their shoulder all season long. I can’t see that stopping here against a Tar Heels team that might not get off the bus in this one.
Make sure you also read our college football parlay for today’s bowl games at +626 odds!
