Ricky Dimon
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Bowl season of the 2023 college football campaign continues on Monday with a 5-game slate. Obviously the marquee matchups come in the College Football Playoff, but don’t forget about the earlier portion of the schedule that includes the Fiesta Bowl between the Liberty Flames and Oregon Ducks. Oregon hopes to bounce back following a tough loss in its conference championship game that eliminated it from CFP contention, similar to Georgia in the Orange Bowl.
Here is my Same Game Parlay for the festivities, which will be televised starting at 1:00 pm ET on ESPN. Also be sure to check out our full Liberty vs Oregon predictions.
Over 67.5 (-115)
Kaidon Salter to record 250+ passing yards (+310)
Bo Nix Over 3.5 passing touchdowns (+158)
Parlay odds: +774
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Part of the value in a Same Game Parlay, of course, is that all of its components can be correlated if you so choose. That is the entire plan here, as Liberty quarterback Kaidon Salter passing for a bunch of yards and Oregon QB Bo Nix tossing touchdown passes left and right would obviously work well with the over. Let’s break down each of the 3 legs.
Over 67.5 (-115)
Oregon and Liberty boast 2 of the most efficient offenses in the country. Over the last 7 weeks of the season (including conference championships), the Ducks and the Flames are top 3 in PPA per play and success rate with top 5 marks in finishing drives in non-garbage time. Furthermore, these 2 offenses are second and third, respectively, in yards per play against FBS opponents. Oregon’s starting center and leading receiver opted out, but Nix, RB Bucky Irving, WR Tez Johnson and other starters will be suiting up. For however long those guys are on the field, head coach Dan Lanning’s squad should be able to score at will. The Ducks are no strangers to lighting up the scoreboard, as they have posted more than 50 points 3 times this season and more than 40 on 3 other occsasions. If Liberty can get anywhere close to its team total of around 24 points, this should soar over the total.
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Kaidon Salter to record 250+ passing yards (+310)
Oregon is favored by more than 2 touchdowns and a field goal, but Salter passing for a lot of yards actually coincides nicely with such a result. After all, if Liberty is playing from behind all day long then it will be inclined to air it out from start to finish. Actually, that isn’t a bad idea for the Flames even if they are keeping the game close. After all, Oregon is giving up 222.8 passing yards per game. Salter has thrown for at least 225 yards in 4 of the last 5 games and he has exceeded the 250 mark on a total of 5 occasions. In what is expected to be a shootout and a game in which Liberty will almost certainly be playing catchup, Salter should be in line to light up the stat sheet.
Bo Nix Over 3.5 passing touchdowns (+158)
Salter is going to put up big numbers; Nix is going to post huge numbers. The Heisman Trophy finalist heads into the Fiesta Bowl with 40 touchdown passes compared to a mere 3 interceptions. He has tossed 19 TDs in the last 5 games, including at least 4 on 3 of those occasions (and 6 against Arizona State). As for Liberty, it is allowing 244.8 passing yards per game and has yielded 26 TDs through the air. Count on Nix going crazy – as usual – on Monday afternoon.
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