Ricky Dimon
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Novak Djokovic is 1 win away from what would be a record-setting 23rd men’s singles Grand Slam title. It would be his third at the French Open. Standing in his way of history is Casper Ruud, who was the runner-up in Paris last spring (lost to Rafael Nadal). Does Ruud have a chance, or will Djokovic take care of business?
Let’s take a look at the best bets to be made for Day 15 at Roland Garros.
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Casper Ruud to win at least one set against Novak Djokovic (-155)
I don’t think Ruud has much of a chance to win, but he should be able to be competitive. Among the encouraging signs is that he improved dramatically from his first Grand Slam title match to his second. The Norwegian got crushed by Nadal 6-3, 6-3, 6-0 in the 2022 French Open final and then lost to Carlos Alcaraz in the U.S. Open final in a match that was tied at a set apiece and went to a tiebreaker in the third.
Ruud also doesn’t have to face his idol this time around in Paris, but instead will try to prevent Djokovic from passing Nadal on the all-time Grand Slam singles titles list. The world #4 has been especially impressive over the last 3 rounds, beating Nicolas Jarry in straight sets, Holger Rune in 4 and Alexander Zverev in straights. Djokovic has been great throughout this whole tournament, too, but he hasn’t been invincible. In the quarterfinals, Karen Khachanov was a tiebreaker away from going up 2 sets to love. The 36-year-old Serb will almost certainly prevail, but I expect Ruud to take a set.
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Casper Ruud Under 5.5 aces (-120)
Ruud has stayed under this number in 4 of his 6 matches at Roland Garros, including in each of his last 2. Meanwhile, Djokovic has been aced more than 3 times only once in his last 5 matches. That was by Khachanov, who is a much bigger server than Ruud. That’s not much of a surprise, as it isn’t easy to get the ball past arguably the greatest returner of all time – especially not on clay. Djokovic is a master at getting his racket on balls and getting them back in play.
Unless this turns into a 5-set marathon, which obviously isn’t expected, count on Ruud hitting no more than 5 aces.
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