Ricky Dimon
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The 2024 NFL Draft has arrived! It kicks off tonight, when former USC standout Caleb Williams is almost certain to hear his name called first by the Chicago Bears. Things could get interesting immediately thereafter, but in all likelihood the real drama will begin at #4. Two other quarterbacks–LSU’s Jayden Daniels and North Carolina’s Drake Maye–are expected to be the second and third picks.
Let’s take a look at the odds and the best bet to make for the top three at next Thursday’s festivities.
2024 NFL Draft #1 pick odds
Odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing.
- Caleb Williams (-10000)
- Jayden Daniels +2000)
- Drake Maye (+3000)
- Marvin Harrison Jr. (+4000)
- J.J. McCarthy (+5000)
- Bo Nix (+10000)
- Michael Penix Jr. (+10000)
2024 NFL Draft #2 pick odds
Odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing.
- Jayden Daniels (-275)
- Drake Maye (+215)
- J.J. McCarthy (+700)
- Caleb Williams (+5000)
- Marvin Harrison Jr. (+9000)
- Bo Nix (+10000)
- Michael Penix Jr. (+10000)
- Malik Nabers (+10000)
- Joe Alt (+10000)
- Brock Bowers (+10000)
- Rome Odunze (+10000)
2024 NFL Draft #3 pick odds
Odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing.
- Drake Maye (-160)
- J.J. McCarthy (+200)
- Jayden Daniels (+250)
- Marvin Harrison Jr. (+2000)
- Joe Alt (+7500)
- Bo Nix (+7500)
- Michael Penix Jr. (+7500)
- Malik Nabers (+7500)
NFL Draft best bet
Parlay: 1) Caleb Williams, 2) Jayden Daniels, 3) Drake Maye (-140)
You can read by individual breakdowns for the draft positions of Williams, Daniels and Maye. Long story short: Despite being the favorites at #1, #2 and #3, respectively, I think there is good value on the whole for backing that order. Obviously there is zero value on backing Williams to go #1 overall — not when his odds are -10000 (you can get him at +5000 to be the 2nd pick, and even at those huge odds you are really just throwing away money at that point). But stick him in a parlay with Daniels and Maye and you might be on to something.
With Williams’ odds basically rendering him useless as an individual in the NFL Draft betting market, consider this 3-pick parlay as an enticing play. At -140, chalk in the top 3 spots of next Thursday’s draft is worth a play.
