Prop Holliday - Bobby Stanley
Show Bio
It’s Week 13 and we’re still struggling to find enjoyable primetime matchups. This Sunday night’s game has the Dallas Cowboys (-10.5) heading to Indianapolis coming off a divisional win against the New York Giants on Thanksgiving. The Colts are 1-2 under interim HC Jeff Saturday and have been more competitive of late, with the losses coming by a combined 8 points. Our biggest mismatch on paper for Sunday night is the Cowboys’ defensive line against the Colts’ offensive line. As the spread would indicate, Colts QB Matt Ryan could be in for a long night. Let’s see if there are a few player props we can find an angle on.
Tony Pollard over 14.5 receiving yards (-113)
Line available on FanDuel Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
Tony Pollard’s emergence since Week 7 has been one of the reasons this Dallas offense has propelled themselves to highest points per game in the NFL (along with Dak Prescott’s return). The 4th-year RB was given the opportunity to show his skillset with Zeke Elliott out of the lineup briefly and he did not disappoint. Zeke returned in Week 11 and is still the starter on paper, but Pollard has more touches and more touches in that period. Since Zeke returned, Pollard has seen 8 targets for 8 receptions. Unfortunately, the results were on both ends of the spectrum. Against Minnesota, Pollard exploded for 109 yards and against New York, he had 1. Now it’s important to mention that the Giants are 7th in DVOA against RBs and Minnesota is 19th. The Colts? They’re 24th overall, allowing 7 targets and 41.4 ypg to opposing RBs. After doing further digging, I was able to see that the game against the Giants was an outlier. Pollard participated in routes the lowest percentage of his snaps all season (36%). His season average is 75% when you remove the outlier. Ultimately, the line is too low for Pollard, who should see at least 4 targets and is averaging 10.6 yards per reception. He needs only 2 to hit this mark. 1U from me.
Matt Ryan longest completion under 33.5 yards (-115)
Line available on Caesars Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
The Cowboys have the best pass-rush in the league. That’s not hyperbole either — they lead the lead in pressure rate, total sacks, and do it while blitzing only 27.6% of the time (13th). To make matters worse, starting RT Braden Smith is OUT for Sunday’s game. We can actually hear Micah Parsons licking his chops. The pressure that Ryan will see, combined with the coverage skills Dallas possesses (5th overall according to PFF), will make this line very difficult to hit. Ryan has hit this in only 1 of the last 3 games since returning to the starting lineup and the Cowboys have allowed the fewest air yards total on completions. Dallas is also 4th overall in DVOA against deep passes. On the season, Ryan has completed only 9 of 16 pass attempts above 20+ yards (4% of his pass attempts) and when under pressure, he’s completing 50% of his passes for 5.4 yards per attempt. 0.5U
Anytime TD Scorers
Tony Pollard +114
Jonathan Taylor-102
Pickswise is the home of free NFL Picks and NFL Odds. Check out the latest NFL Prop Bets and NFL Parlays as well as expert NFL Underdog Picks and NFL Computer Picks.
