NHL Picks

The Tampa Bay Lightning were able to push back their tee times, scoring a 6-3 victory on home ice in Game 4, avoiding the brooms of the Florida Panthers. While being in an 0-3 series hole is a rather unenviable task, the Lightning did what they had to do in Game 4 to avoid the sweep. Now, can Tampa Bay score a road victory in a tough place to play? Well, Tampa wasn’t that far off in Games 1 and 2. Sure, Steven Stamkos scored a power-play goal with 10 seconds left in regulation to makes things look closer than they were in the series opener, but the Lightning just lost just 3-2 in Game 1. They fell 3-2 in overtime in Game 2, and Sergei Bobrovsky made that miraculous no-look diving save across the crease to rob Matthew Dumba, or the Lightning might have had the road split. The margin of difference has been razor thin, but credit Florida for finding a way to get the job done.

On home ice the Panthers are super tough. In the regular season the Panthers were 26-13-2, and they won the first two games of this series, of course. And the Panther had a plus-68 goal differential, which was better than anyone in the league. But the Lightning have a little bit of confidence, and it will only grow if they can get this series back to Tampa for Game 6. Florida will do everything in its power to stop that. I expect a much bigger defensive struggle, with a lot of physicality in Game 5. The Lightning might not win, but they’ll make Florida work, while keeping it close.

Lightning PL +1.5 (-160) at time of publishing. Playable to -170.

Download the Pickswise app to get our picks and best bets for every game, every day.

The Tampa Bay Lightning head to Amerant Bank Arena in Sunrise, Fla. looking to stave off elimination against the Florida Panthers in Game 5. The Lightning were in a 3-0 series hole after dropping Game 3 on home ice by a 5-3 margin. They responded by doubling up the Panthers 6-3 in Game 4, giving the three-time Stanley Cup champions a little bit of life in this Sunshine State rivalry. Tampa Bay still has a long way to go, and I suspect either way, this Game 5 won’t have nearly the same kind of offense that we saw in the two games in Central Florida.

As the series shifts back to South Florida, I expect we’ll see the defense and solid goaltending return. We had a total of five goals in Game 1, and that fifth goal didn’t come until Steven Stamkos notched an oh-by-the-way power play goal with just 10 seconds left in regulation, a rather meaningless goal, which simply made things look closer than they were. In Game 2, we had a 2-2 game which ended up going to overtime, before Florida untied it in the extra session. But the Over was never threatened. I expect we get back to basics in Game 5, and back to a defensive battle.

Under 6.5 (-115) at time of publishing. Playable to -140.

The Dallas Stars picked up the 3-2 win in overtime in Game 3, thanks to Wyatt Johnston’s second goal of the game, and the Stars suddenly have some life. That’s three games in this series, and three victories by the road team, as home-ice advantage hasn’t meant much. We have had two one-goal games in the three contests, however, and that’s something to remember. This will be a close game.

The Vegas Golden Knights won the Stanley Cup last season, and T-Mobile Arena is not an easy place to get a win, let alone winning two in a row. However, the Stars didn’t rack up 113 points, best in the Western Conference, and just one short of winning the President’s Trophy, because they’re not a good team. Dallas went 26-10-5 on the road this season, best in the NHL, and second only to the Boston Bruins in the regular season. Both teams are 3-0 in the playoffs on the road, by the way. The Stars have confidence after taking Game 3 in overtime, and it’s a good bet to back to slight favorites, as they look to level the series 2-2. Plus, the public is on the Golden Knights at around a 70% clip, and that’s reason enough to go the other way.

Stars ML (-125) at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

Download the Pickswise app to get our picks and best bets for every game, every day.

The Dallas Stars picked up a 3-2 victory in overtime in Game 3, but the Under still ended up easily coming through. In fact, with four goals in regulation, the Over was never threatened. In Game 2, we had a total of just four goals, and the Over (6) was also never threatened. And while the Over cashed in Game 1, a lot of that can be attributed to the fact that we had five combined goals in the first 18:29 of action, as Vegas quickly build a 3-2 lead.

Since that wild first period in the series opener, we’ve had a total of just 12 goals in eight-plus periods, as the overtime session in Game 3 went 16:23 until Wyatt Johnston became the hero. So let’s call it nine periods where we’ve had 12 goals, or just 1.33 goals per period. If you stretch that out across a whole 60 minutes, it’s no wonder the books have dropped the total for Game 4 to 5.5 from 6. We’ll go low on the total for Game 4, and it’s a good idea to back the slight favorite on the road for Same-Game Parlay players. This should be a defensive battle with a lot of physicality in an ultra-important Game 4.

Under 5.5 (+100) at time of publishing. Playable to -110.