Parlays

The Thursday slate kicks off with Twins vs Orioles in a series finale. The Twins have won the first 2 games in the series and the Orioles have only managed 3 total runs thus far. The Twins have now won 4 games in a row, and the Orioles have dropped 4 in a row. To me, the Orioles are almost unbettable at the moment. It is astounding how sharply they have fallen off, and it is mostly their starting pitching, bullpen and offense — yeah, everything. Until they figure some things out, I’m just going to be over here betting the other side. Give me the Twinkies in this one.

Joe Ryan was scheduled to start, but he is sick, so Bailey Ober is starting on short rest. Ober has been great this season. If we toss out his first start, which always has wild variance, he has allowed a single run in 5 of his 6 starts. He will face Dean Kremer. Kremer was excellent in his last start, but over the course of the season, he has allowed 5 or more runs in 4 of his 7 starts (3 of 6 if we want to use the same “first start doesn’t count” standard I used for Ober). To me, Kremer is not trustworthy, much like the entire rest of this Oriole roster right now. Give me the Twins in this spot, and the only thing preventing me from hammering this one is the risk of Ober on short rest.

Twins vs Orioles prediction: Twins ML (-160) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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In this game, we will see the Cincinnati Reds take on the Atlanta Braves. This will be the 4th game between these 2 teams and Braves currently lead the series 2-1. Through the first 2 games, the pitching for both of these teams was great. In the 3rd game, we saw the Reds win even though they lost Hunter Greene to a groin injury after 3 innings. Starting the game today will be Nick Lodolo of the Reds and Spencer Schwellenbach of the Braves. Both of these pitchers have the potential to be very good, but both are coming off of their worst starts of the year. Lodolo pitched 5.1 innings, giving up 10 hits and 6 earned runs against the Nationals. Schwellenbach gave up 8 hits and 6 earned runs in just 3.1 innings to the Dodgers. Both of these guys are looking to bounce back in this one.

On the hitting side, the Reds have scored 181 runs on 308 hits. They have scored 99 of those runs on 172 hits in road games. The Braves have scored 144 runs on 290 hits with 72 runs being scored in their home games. Given these statistics, the Reds’ batting has a slightly higher potential in this one, especially considering they were able to break the hitting slump in their game yesterday. Additionally, Schwellenbach has given up 25 hits in his 24.2 innings at home, while Lodolo has given up 16 hits in his 25.1 innings on the road. Lodolo currently holds a 1.07 ERA in away games. With Schwellenbach being in a slump after his incredible start to the season, Lodolo’s impressive pitching away from Cincinnati, and the fact that the starting pitchers determined the winners in their previous games, we are taking the Reds to tie the series in Atlanta at enticing plus-money odds.

Reds vs Braves prediction: Reds ML (+145) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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One of the better series of this weekend’s MLB slate comes in the NL West, where the Arizona Diamondbacks are set to host the World Series favorite Los Angeles Dodgers in the first of a 4-game series on Thursday. Arizona was a team that I was pretty high on entering this season, but things have been pretty up and down for the Diamondbacks to this point. Pitching has been the issue for Arizona in 2025, as the Diamondbacks are just 25th in team ERA to this point (4.47), while also sitting at 18th in hits allowed and WHIP. The struggles should continue for starter Brandon Pfaadt (5.31 xERA, .306 xBA) on Thursday, a pitcher whose advanced metrics and batted-ball data suggest that regression is coming compared to his actual results this season. Facing a Dodgers lineup that’s loaded with talent and professional hitters from top to bottom is not exactly the antidote for a shaky stable of pitchers, and I could certainly see Pfaadt and the Arizona bullpen struggling in this one.

On the other side, Los Angeles is sending Yoshinobu Yamamoto to the mound, which is typically a great sign for the Dodgers. The Japanese ace is in the midst of an outstanding start to the season (0.90 ERA, 32.2% strikeout rate, 61.5% ground ball rate). Unlike last season, the Dodgers’ ace has hit the ground running and has only surrendered 4 earned runs over his first 40 innings pitched, while striking out 49 in the process. Yamamoto has been tremendous against any level of competition, so he certainly shouldn’t struggle against this Arizona lineup. All things considered, let’s take the Dodgers to find the win column for the 9th time in their last 11 contests.

Dodgers vs Diamondbacks prediction: Dodgers ML (-160) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The Carolina Hurricanes surprised the Washington Capitals in the series opener on Tuesday night, winning 2-1 in overtime, thanks to a Jaccob Slavin bomb from just inside the blue line. Logan Thompson had a strong game for the Capitals, turning aside 31 of the 33 shots he faced, but he was unable to stop the defenseman’s slapper through traffic from the point. On the flip side, Hurricanes goaltender Frederik Andersen, back from an upper-body injury suffered in Game 4 of the New Jersey series, faced just 14 shots for the entire evening, stopping all but Aliaksei Protas’ shot in the 2nd period.

Despite the road victory, Carolina is still just 18-21-5 on the road, including the playoffs. To be fair, the Hurricanes have won 2 games, while losing Game 3 in the New Jersey series in overtime, but it has been an impressive turnaround. Still, Washington was the Metropolitan Division winner, and it is the top overall seed in the Eastern Conference. To see the Caps as home underdogs is simply staggering. I’m taking advantage and going in rather aggressively on the Capitals, as they look to square things up before the series shifts to Raleigh for Game 3 and Game 4.

Hurricanes vs Capitals prediction: Capitals ML (+115) available at time of publishing. Playable to -120.

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The Oilers took a 1-0 series lead over the Golden Knights in Game 1 thanks to a 4-2 victory on Tuesday. Now, Vegas is looking to even things up in Game 2 before the series shifts to Edmonton. The Oilers are rolling, as they have now won 5 games in a row. They have put consistent offensive pressure on their opponents in those 5 wins, having out-shot Los Angeles in all 4 wins while out-shooting Vegas 28-17 in Game 1. That pressure has resulted in Edmonton scoring a playoff-leading 4.43 goals per game so far in the postseason. When the Oilers are playing with speed, creativity and confidence the way they are right now, they are tough to slow down.

On the other side, Vegas generated just 17 shots on goal in Game 1, but that number should increase in Game 2. Vegas is still putting an average of 30 shots on goal in the postseason, and the power play is working well. The Oilers put forth a strong defensive effort in Game 1, but they are still prone to allowing high-danger chances, and both Calvin Pickard and Stuart Skinner own save percentages below .900 in the postseason. After 6 total goals were scored in Game 1, look for Game 2 to be a higher-scoring affair and consider the Over my Oilers vs Golden Knights best bet.

Oilers vs Golden Knights prediction: Over 6.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to -115.

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