Parlays

Friday's NCAA Tournament Sweet 16 parlay
Today
NC State Wolfpack - NCAAB
Marquette Golden Eagles
NC State @ Marquette · Point Spread
Marquette -6.5
Our Analysis

Through the first half of Marquette’s opening-round game against Western Kentucky, it looked like the Golden Eagles might have a short stay in the NCAA Tournament. They trailed by 10 points late in the first half but then scored 51 points in the second half and ultimately won the game by 20. They shot 61 percent on 2s in that content and then followed that up by shooting 73.5 percent from 2-point range against Colorado. It’s hard to imagine that improving even further, but it just might. Per Hoop-Math, NC State ranks just 225th in field-goal percentage defense at the rim. NC State is also very poor in pick-and-roll defense, so it is very likely Marquette has its third straight strong offensive game.

Additionally, NC State’s defense is at its best when it is able to disrupt the opponent with its press defense. The Wolfpack pressed at a top-15 rate this season, but that could be problematic against Marquette. Per Synergy, Marquette ranked in the 90th percentile in press offense this season. The Golden Eagles could have some issues defending DJ Burns in the post, but ultimately it seems unlikely the Wolfpack will be able to keep up with a red-hot Eagle offense.

Marquette -6.5 available at time of publishing. Playable to -7.5.

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Gonzaga Bulldogs
Purdue Boilermakers
Gonzaga @ Purdue · Point Spread
Purdue -5.0
Our Analysis

Instead of being tight and intimidated after losing as a #1 seed in the first round last year, Purdue was focused and efficient during the opening weekend of the NCAA Tournament. The Boilermakers’ win over Utah State in the round of 32 was especially impressive; they scored more than 1.4 points per possession, shot 60% inside the arc and made nearly 48% of their 3-point attempts. They advance to play Gonzaga for the 2nd time this season, but this time will be in the Sweet 16 rather than in Maui. In the 1st meeting Purdue won by 10 despite making just 4 perimeter shots in its worst offensive performance of the season, per BartTorvik’s adjusted offensive efficiency. 

Zach Edey is so good at creating contact and forcing opponents into foul trouble, and he is obviously dominant on the glass — boasting the 3rd highest offensive rebounding rate in the nation among 2,200+ eligible players. He has a significant size advantage over Gonzaga’s front court and will likely score at the rim with relative ease throughout this game because of it. Playing alongside him are multiple 44%+ 3-point shooters in Braden Smith, Fletcher Loyer and Mason Gillis who can match the recent shooting success of Gonzaga — which has connected on more than 47% of its 3-point attempts in March. The Zags may be forced to play more small-ball lineups (without Graham Ike) to stretch the floor in an attempt to get Edey to defend outside the paint. However, I’m not convinced their hot 3-point shooting will continue if they are forced to take more of them against a solid perimeter defense like Purdue’s. While Gonzaga leads the country in 3-point% this month, it ranks 348th in 3-point rate. An uptick in attempts does not necessarily mean the Bulldogs will continue to make them at such a high clip. Furthermore, Smith defends the ball handler in pick-and-rolls very well — which is a plus for Purdue’s defense against Gonzaga’s floor general, Ryan Nembhard. I think Purdue’s size around the rim and ability to defend the perimeter is going to be troublesome for Gonzaga. The Zags may be able to keep it close early, but expect the Boilermakers to pull away late. 

Purdue -5 available at time of publishing. Playable to -6.

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Duke Blue Devils
Houston Cougars - NCAAB
Duke @ Houston · Point Spread
Houston -4.0
Our Analysis

On Friday the Sweet 16 turns to Dallas and the South Region. The headliner is the top-seeded Houston Cougars and the traditional tournament powerhouse Duke Blue Devils. The spread in this matchup currently sits at 4 points, and lots of savvy bettors are hitting the Duke side of the spread — hoping for a close game. Houston, the nation’s top defensive team, has no qualms about winning close. Still, I think the Cougars several steps better than Duke and I like them to cover the spread in this specific matchup.

Duke’s path has looked impressive, but let’s not lose the fact that that it beat a couple of double-digit seeds to get here. Nothing against Vermont or James Madison, but they aren’t Houston. Duke got crazy hot from outside against JMU, and that is probably its best path to victory over UH. Houston, on the other hand, barely survived Texas A&M in a game in which most of its starters fouled out and several secondary players had to make plays in overtime to seal the win. That game was not a warning flare about a vulnerable Cougar team; it was a matchup problem with a very physical Aggie squad that Houston still managed to survive. Duke is not that. The Devils will have a size advantage, but they do not score all that well at the rim and I do not think they will exploit their size the way the Aggies did. Houston will likely force this game to the perimeter; Duke will need to repeat that 14-for-28 effort behind the arc. I don’t think that is likely. Give me Houston to win and cover.

Houston -4 available at time of publishing. Playable to -4.5.

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$68.65
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Friday's NBA Mega Parlay
Today
Los Angeles Lakers
Indiana Pacers
LA Lakers @ IND Pacers · Money Line
LA Lakers Win
Our Analysis

With 5 wins on the bounce the Lakers are actually tied for the 2nd longest active win streak in the NBA with the Dallas Mavericks right now. This team has been on fire offensively during the win streak, averaging 130.2 points per game. Indiana’s leaky offense is the perfect opponent for the Lakers to continue this solid scoring run.

The two teams met just 5 days ago in Los Angeles and the Lakers came out on top 150-145 in what was their highest scoring output in 37 years. In Wednesday’s win over Memphis they were without Anthony Davis, he is schedule to return to the line-up here which gives LA a huge advantage at the center position. Indiana hasn’t been convincing at all lately, losing 2 of their last 3 games and getting destroyed by the Chicago Bulls 125-99 in their last game. I’ll take the Lakers on the Money Line here.

Phoenix Suns
Oklahoma City Thunder
PHX Suns @ OKC Thunder · Point Spread
PHX Suns -2.5
Our Analysis

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s absence makes all the difference when betting on this game. Without their leader and best player, the Thunder are in a tough spot against one of the most prolific offenses in the NBA. The Suns are 4-1 SU in their last 5 games and in desperate need of wins to avoid the play-in tournament. They’ve had the better record in head-to-head meetings as well, winning 8 of the last 12 vs OKC.

The Thunder just lost in OT to the red-hot Houston Rockets, they’re just 1-2 SU over their last 3 games and although they’ve beaten the Suns in both meetings so far this season, not having SGA here will prove to be too much to overcome. Losing to the Wemby-less Spurs on Monday was a wake-up call for Phoenix, we just saw them take down the defending champions on the road a couple of days ago. I have them covering the spread here.

Houston Rockets
Utah Jazz
HOU Rockets @ UTA Jazz · Point Spread
HOU Rockets -7.5
Our Analysis

This should be a slam dunk bet by all accounts. The Houston Rockets are currently the owners of the NBA’s longest win streak at 10 wins in a row, they take on a Utah Jazz squad that’s just 2-13 SU over their last 15 games. Not only that, the Jazz are posting historically bad numbers on the defensive end during this stretch, allowing 122.9 points per 100 possessions. They’re 3.6 points worse than the 29th ranked Raptors. Toronto and Charlotte are the only 2 teams with a worse Net Rating than Utah’s -11.4 during this stretch.

Houston has been a joy to watch ever since Alperen Sengun went down with a season ending leg injury. Their pace has gone up significantly and they’re just playing with much more fluidity on the offensive end. Only Boston has a better offensive efficiency in the last 10 games, the Rockets are beating teams by an average of 13.2 points during this run. I have them winning this one by 8 points fairly easily.

Sportsbook
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$86.82
Filip Tomic

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