What Is A Favorite In Sports Betting?

Favorite meaning

A common question in sports betting is “what is a favorite?” and “who is the favorite?”. The meaning of a favorite is simple – it is the side that oddsmakers believe is more likely to win a given game or matchup.

Betting favorite in Sports Explained

Unless both sides are equal, there will be a favorite and an underdog in any game or matchup. The favorite is viewed as being more likely to win by the sportsbook, whereas the underdog is less likely. When betting on a favorite there will be a price either in odds or points given in a point spread. You will either have to bet more on a favorite for the same payout as you would on an underdog (money line), or the favorite will need to win by more points (point spread) for you to cash your bet. You might wonder how to know which side is the favorite; let’s get into that.

How do I know who is the favorite?

It is easy to ascertain which team is the favorite in a sports matchup. On the money line, you will see “minus odds” on any favorite, meaning there will be a minus sign (-) before the odds. An example would be -140. That means that you would need to wager $140 for every $100 you would win. The number always indicates what needs to be staked in order to win $100. Of course, you do not always have to bet that much – you could instead stake $1.40 to win $1.

When it comes to point spreads, the favorite is the team that is giving points. Let’s say that the Kansas City Chiefs are playing the Los Angeles Rams, and the Chiefs are -3.5. That means that they need to win by four or more points for the bet to win. If the Chiefs win the game but only by two points, then the bet is a loser.

How to bet on the favorite

Betting on a favorite is easy. You can bet on a favorite on the money line, point spread, run line (baseball) or puck line (hockey). Favorite betting can be lucrative if you understand the wagers you place and make intelligent decisions. Let’s look at the various bets you can place on a favorite.

Money line favorite

The most straightforward type of favorite bet is on the money line. You simply need the team to win and you will cash your bet. Large favorites will likely win games, making money line favorite betting a reasonably basic proposition. The issue is that payouts can be meager, meaning you may have to bet a lot to win anything considerable.

An example is that a team might be favored by -500 odds. This means that you need to bet $500 to win $100, or $5 to win $1. You might see considerably larger odds in certain matchups, such as lopsided college football games. One way to increase your potential winnings is to parlay multiple money line favorites together. If you think you have a few bets that are close to “locks” (almost sure to win), perhaps consider a parlay to increase your winnings on a smaller investment. However, you will need all of these teams to win to secure a payout, making them more risky.

Points spread favorite

It is more common to bet favorites on the point spread since your bet will pay close to even money. Yet, the spread is introduced to even the action, meaning that even far superior teams/players are less likely to cover the spread. You might see a team favored by -7.5 points, meaning they must win by at least eight points for you to win your bet. This makes it a lot harder to determine which side will cover, despite one being far superior to the other.

On top of that, sportsbooks don’t make any money on point spread betting without introducing vigorish. Although the spread makes it close to 50/50 which side will cover, you will not receive an even money payout on either side. You will generally see -110 odds, meaning you must bet $110 to win $100 or $1.10 to win $1.

It is also vital to consider that in cases where a point spread is even, like a -7, it is possible that the favorite wins by exactly seven. In this case, bettors on both sides “push” and receive their money back. A push is impossible on a point spread such as -7.5, since a team cannot win by 7.5 points.

Run line favorite

The “run line” only exists in baseball and is essentially the same as a point spread as you would see in football and basketball. Baseball deals in runs rather than points, hence the name. It is also a lower-scoring sport, so the run line will almost always be set at -1.5, regardless of how lopsided the matchup may be.

When betting on a run line favorite, you need the team to win by at least two to win your bet, assuming it is set at -1.5. On rare occasions, you will see a more extensive run line like -2.5, in which case you would need the team to win by at least three.

Puck line favorite

Similarly to baseball, there is no point spread in hockey, but instead, a “puck line.” For one, scoring in hockey refers to goals rather than points, and for two, the sport can be low-scoring. The puck line will be set at -1.5 like in baseball, and if you bet the favorite, you will need them to win by at least two goals to win your wager.

Should you bet on the favorite?

Whether or not you should bet on the favorite is not a simple answer. It entirely depends on the exact lines and odds and where there is value. Depending on where lines and odds are set, the underdog or favorite could be the better bet on the same game.

If you bet on the favorite on the money line consistently, you would likely win more bets than you would lose, yet, due to the lower return, you may not be profitable in the long term. You essentially need to ascertain whether you believe that the odds for the favorite to win are more favorable than their actual chances.

To illustrate, a -200 favorite on the money line has an implied win probability of 66.7%. You essentially need to believe that the favorite is likely to win more often than that for this to be a positive expected value (+EV) wager. 

It is worth noting that in spread betting for the NFL in particular, underdogs often have a tendency to cover the spread at a more significant rate than favorites. This is because the betting public has a tendency to side with the favorite, moving the line in the favor of the underdog. Still, it is entirely on a case-by-case basis whether the favorite is a good or bad bet at any given moment in line and odds movement.

Favorite betting strategies 

As mentioned, there is no one size fits all strategy for betting on favorites. Still, there are some helpful tips you can keep in mind.

In point spread betting, it is wise to consider whether the team will likely keep their feet on the gas when playing with a lead when betting on a favorite. A more conservative-minded team might be more likely to play it safe when ahead, while a more freewheeling contingent may keep the scoring going, making them more likely to cover the spread.

On the money line, it is best to carefully look at the odds and try to back a favorite when the odds are the most in their favor. You will often see considerable odds movement leading up to the game, and it is really a matter of finding the odds at their most advantageous.