MLB Picks

A series between the Yankees and Orioles is something that has my attention, as both of these teams are both of high quality and also fun to watch. These AL East giants will look to get an early start towards a division crown, but these squads are likely to be competing for most of the season. Baltimore is 18-10 after last night’s win in a pitching duel between Grayson Rodriguez and Clarke Schmidt. The Yankees are 19-11 after the loss but are still playing very good ball to begin the season. I find it noteworthy that today’s total sits at 9.5 despite how Game 1 played out, and the market is telling us to expect more scoring here tonight. 

Nestor Cortes runs into an Orioles lineup that has mashed left-handed pitching so far this season. Baltimore ranks 3rd in wOBA against southpaws while producing a 131 wRC+. They can be a bit strikeout prone but are still a lineup that puts together competitive at-bats more often than not. With a low ground ball rate, and 2 home runs allowed in 2 of his last 3 starts, Nestor should have to grind through this outing against a tough lineup.

Dean Kremer is not my favorite arm on the Orioles to bet on, but he has pitched pretty well in 4 of his first 5 starts this season. This includes a 10-strikeout outing against the Angels in his last start, a game that I watched. Kremer’s underlying metrics are not in favor of the right-hander, however, as his quality of contact metrics are rather poor, including a 5th percentile barrel rate. The Yankees lineup is tough to deal with due to their power and patience, and behind Kremer is an Orioles bullpen that has underperformed to date. I like the over in this game.

Over 9.5 (-102) available at time of publishing. Playable to -105 odds.

The Colorado Rockies arrive from Mexico City, where they were swept in a two-game set at altitude against the Houston Astros. The Rockies cashed low in each of those games, and the Under has a slight 4-2 edge in the past six games. The Rockies pitching staff has allowed 29 runs in the past three games, with two games played over 7,000 in elevation in Mexico, and the game on Thursday played at home against the San Diego Padres, a 10-9 win. They turn to RHP Ryan Feltner to start at sea level in Miami. The Over has cashed in each of Feltner’s past four starts, with the offense providing 31 runs of support in those four starts.

The Miami Marlins turn to RHP Sixto Sanchez against the Rox. He lasted just eight outs in his most recent start against the Atlanta Braves on the road, allowing three earned runs and five hits in a 59-pitch effort across 2 2/3 IP before turning it over to the bullpen. He is more of an opener kind of pitcher. The Marlins’ bullpen pitchers have an unseemly 5.00 ERA, and they’ll be used early and often, with Sanchez likely to go three or fewer innings. The best bet is to go high in this series opener in South Florida, but go low on the attendance figures.

Over 8 (-105) available at time of publishing. Playable to -135.

Sean Manaea draws a tough matchup on Tuesday against the Chicago Cubs. The Cubs against left-handed pitching this season have only seen 202 PA, the 4th fewest, but have still been extremely productive in the chances they have had. Chicago sits 2nd in wOBA with a 137 wRC+ against southpaws, and overall their 3.95 pitches per PA ranks 7th most in MLB. Their patience will be crucial against Manaea who has struggled with efficiency this season. The southpaw averages the 4th highest pitches per PA this season, and as a result has worked 5 or fewer innings in each of his last 4 starts, failing to even finish that 5th frame in 2 of those games. A high walk rate, poor quality of contact metrics, and a low ground ball rate are a combination of aspects to Manaea’s game I am not a fan of.

Javier Assad has been very effective for the Cubs this season in his starting role, notching 5 straight solid starts for Chicago to begin his 2024 campaign. The 26-year-old right-hander from Mexico isn’t a hard thrower, but utilizes a 6-pitch mix to help keep opponents off balance. With 2 or fewer earned runs allowed in each start this year Assad has given the Cubs chances to compete each time he takes the hill. He draws a Mets offense that has been boosted by the addition of JD Martinez, but it is still a group of bats that Assad can navigate. While not a game I am rushing to bet, I do lean towards a Cubs win in this matchup.

Cubs ML (+110) available at time of publishing. Playable to +105 odds.

The San Francisco Giants head to Fenway Park to take on the Boston Red Sox in the opener of a three-game interleague series on Tuesday night. San Francisco sends ace Logan Webb to the mound, looking to continue his dominant stretch. Webb enters with a 2.33 ERA and has allowed just one earned run over his last 22 innings pitched.

However, the Red Sox bats have been hot recently, scoring 22 runs over their last three games. They’ll counter with Cooper Criswell, who has been solid with a 2.38 ERA through three outings this year. While Criswell is unproven compared to Webb, Boston’s potent offense gives them a edge at home.

The Red Sox are 10-4 in their last 14 games as a home underdog against National League teams. They’ve also led after 5 innings in 4 of their last 5 in this spot. In contrast, the Giants have trailed after 5 innings in 5 of their last 7 as a road favorite versus the AL East.

Despite Webb’s strong form, backing the underdog Red Sox at +210 is the wise wager tonight. Their lineup is clicking, and they have a significant home-field advantage against the visiting Giants. With plus-money on their side, take Boston to strike first blood in this series.

Boston at 2.10 available at time of publishing. Playable to ‘even money’.

The Cleveland Guardians head to Houston to face the Astros in what should be an exciting series.  The Guardians had two heart-breaking losses in a row against the Braves where they lost in extra innings, while the Astros found some hope with back-to-back wins after a successful weekend in Mexico City against the Rockies.   

In today’s matchup, the Astros will rely on right-hander Hunter Brown (0-4, 9.68 ERA), who has struggled with a 2.49 WHIP, allowing an average of 16.3 hits and 6.1 walks per 9 innings. Brown’s recent performances have been inconsistent, with his best outing against Atlanta two weeks ago, where he allowed only 2 runs on 5 hits in 6 innings pitched. On the mound for the Guardians will be Carlos Carrasco (1-2, 4.63 ERA), who faced challenges in his last game against the Boston Red Sox, surrendering 5 earned runs and 9 hits in 5 innings pitched.

In their last 7 games, Houston has shown some improvement at the plate, ranking 9th in the league with a .250 batting average, hitting 8 home runs and driving in 24 runs. In contrast, Cleveland ranks 22nd with a .220 batting average, hitting only 4 home runs and 16 RBIs. Despite their offensive struggles, Cleveland has a far better bullpen with a 2.53 ERA, while Houston’s bullpen has struggled all season with a 4.95 ERA.

Considering these factors, while both teams are expected to score some runs, Brown’s recent struggles on the mound could give Carrasco and the Guardians the edge in today’s game.  Look for Cleveland to come out swinging early and score enough runs before taking advantage of Houston’s weak bullpen and to become the first AL team to 20 wins.  

Guardians (+125) available at the time of publishing, playable at that number.  

The Seattle Mariners pulled off a surprising win against the Braves last night, largely thanks to Bryce Miller’s outstanding pitching performance, allowing just 2 hits, 1 earned run, and striking out 10. Now, the Braves are eager to even the score in tonight’s matchup, aiming to avoid falling behind 0-2 in the series, especially with the red-hot Phillies breathing down their necks just 1.5 games behind in the NL East standings.

Taking the mound for the Braves is Reynaldo Lopez, boasting an impressive 2-0 record this season with a stellar 0.72 ERA. In his last outing against the Marlins, Lopez pitched 7 strong innings, surrendering only 1 run on 3 hits while striking out 6. On the other side, the Mariners will rely on Luis Castillo, who holds a 2-4 record with a 4.15 ERA this season. Although Castillo had a shaky start to the season, he’s shown improvement in his last two games, allowing just 2 runs over 13 innings while striking out 15.

In their recent performances, the Braves’ offense has cooled off significantly, with a team batting average of .235 and an OPS of .644 over the last 7 games, along with just 2 home runs and 21 RBIs. Meanwhile, the Mariners rank last in the league with a .175 team batting average and an OPS of .590, but they’ve managed to hit 10 home runs with 22 RBIs. While the Mariners’ strength lies in their pitching, relying solely on the long ball to win games may not always be the most effective strategy.

Given the Braves’ more well-rounded lineup compared to the Mariners, expect a closely contested matchup, but the Braves are in a better position to come out on top in what could be a tight game.

Braves (-130) available at the time of publishing, playable at that number.  

The Reds and Padres pick back up on Tuesday night after the Reds took the first game in the series with a 5-2 win. On Monday, it was the Nick Lodolo show, as the young lefty was throwing chairs to 11 Padre hitters. The Padres should catch a bit of a break tonight with Nick Martinez on the mound instead. And the Friars need some success soon, as they have now lost 5 straight games. I am looking for some runs to be scored by both teams tonight, and I think this game total is likely too low.

The Reds will throw Martinez, who has been a perfectly serviceable starter for the Redlegs. He is far from unhittable though, and the Padres should be able to get to him a bit. San Diego will hand the ball to Yu Darvish. The veteran pitcher has given up 3+ runs in 3 straight games, but is of course always capable of a shutdown start. Both bullpens are middle of the road, and both lineups have plenty of thunder in the bats. I don’t see why this would be a pitcher’s duel, and I am happy to back the offenses on Tuesday night.

Over 7.5 (-110) available at the time of publishing; playable at that number