College Football Parlays

What can we say? Indiana has been boat-racing just about everyone it has seen this year — with the lone exception being Iowa. Many will argue the Hoosiers could be the best team in the country, and it’s hard to push back. They’ve been balanced, explosive, and punishing – a dynamic offense, stingy defense, and an overall physicality that’s overwhelmed opponents. Indiana has been running teams over, make no mistake. Penn State, meanwhile, has been a disappointment in market terms. The Nittany Lions have covered just once all season and are coming off another ATS loss at Ohio State. In that game, PSU hung tough — down only 3 at the half as an 18.5-point dog — before getting blanked 21-0 in the third and never recovering.

So why back Penn State here? Value. In the summer look-ahead line, the Nittany Lions were as high as -16.5 in some spots. Now they’re catching over 2 touchdowns— an over 30 point market flip once you factor preseason expectations vs. current perception. That’s a classic buy-low underdog number, and this time it’s in Happy Valley. If there was ever a “right spot” for Penn State to rise up and turn its season narrative around, this is it. Don’t be shocked if the Nittany Lions don’t just cover, but flirt with the outright upset.

Indiana vs Penn State prediction: Penn State +15 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The Ohio State Buckeyes hit the road for West Lafayette to battle the lowly Purdue Boilermakers. The No. 1-ranked Buckeyes rolled the Penn State Nittany Lions last week, and they have scored 34 or more points in each of the past 4 games, while going 7-0-1 ATS this season. The defense allowed 14 points in the first 2 quarters last week against the Nittany Lions, but the D has still allowed just 55 points through 8 games, or 6.9 points per game. Against Purdue, Ohio State rolled to a 45-0 win on November 9, 2024 last season in Columbus, covering a 37-point mark. The Buckeyes are 3-0 ATS in the past 2 meetings, covering spreads of 17 or more points. Ohio State has scored 41 or more points in 4 of the past 5 tries against Penn State, and the winning team has scored at least 41 points in each of the past 5 in the series.

For Purdue, the Boilermakers are 2-7 SU and 3-5-1 ATS. While the Boilermakers did put up a fight, falling just 21-16 last week at Michigan as a 21-point underdog, the offense continues to struggle to cobble together any points. The defense hasn’t really been trampled in the past 4 games, but that’s also against Michigan, Rutgers, Northwestern and Minnesota. In 3 straight games against USC, Notre Dame and Illinois, the Boilermakers allowed 132 total points, or 44.0 PPG, including 99 combined points against the Illini and Irish. QB Julian Sayin, WR Jeremiah Smith and the Buckeyes should roll the Boilermakers.

Ohio State vs Purdue prediction: Ohio State Buckeyes -30 (-110) at time of publishing. Playable to -33.5.

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It’s been a dramatic couple of weeks for LSU. Prior to their bye week, the Tigers lost for a 3rd time in 4 outings. Their most recent loss was the ugliest of them all, not only on the field, but on the sideline thanks to former head coach Brian Kelly’s antics. With a week to recoup and re-focus, the Tigers will likely put forth a very motivated effort against one of their rivals in Alabama on Saturday, but how much will that matter? 

Unlike we’ve seen in recent years, LSU has struggled on both sides of the ball. The Tigers are outside the top 80 in scoring and outside the top 90 in total offense, and while their defensive metrics are better on the season as a whole, their worst performances of the year were against Vanderbilt and Texas A&M – their 2 most recent opponents.

If the rumors are true about how toxic LSU was under Kelly’s watch, then we can probably expect LSU to look better this week than it has at any other point this season – maybe outside of Week 1. However, like I hinted at earlier, is that actually going to matter much on the field? LSU’s primary issues on the offensive end are a poor rushing attack and a sub-optimal offensive line. Will those magically improve in Kelly’s absence? I doubt it, but I suppose it’s possible. However, if they don’t, a lot of responsibility is going to fall on the arm of QB Garrett Nussmeier, which is not what the Tigers want. Alabama’s defensive strength is in its secondary, as the Tide currently sit top-12 in passing yards allowed per game, top-15 in passing touchdowns allowed, and top-20 in yards per pass attempt this season. More recently, ‘Bama ranks 7th in PPA per pass allowed since Week 6, which includes games against Tennessee, Missouri with a healthy Beau Pribula, and Vanderbilt.

On the defensive side, LSU’s play-to-play efficiency has dropped off precipitously over the last 5 weeks. The Tigers are 98th in points allowed per quality drive and 108th in PPA per play allowed in that time, and they haven’t applied much pressure to opposing quarterbacks – sitting 107th in havoc generated by their front 7 since the beginning of October. That has been a season-long issue though, as the Tigers are outside the top 60 in sacks and outside the top 100 in tackles for loss – which is music to Alabama QB Ty Simpson’s ears. He should have all day to throw behind an above-average offensive line. 

Alabama head coach Kalen DeBoer has been excellent following bye weeks during his tenure in Tuscaloosa. The Tide are 3-0 SU and ATS after being idle under his watch, including 2 wins over Georgia and last year’s convincing 41-13 win at LSU. That game was never really in question. This time around, I expect the Tigers to put up a strong fight early before the Tide pull away late and win yet another home game by double digits.

LSU vs Alabama prediction: Alabama Crimson Tide -10 (-110) at the time of publishing. Playable at that number or better.

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