College Football Parlays

Friday’s weekly Big 12 special takes us to Florida for a battle between the Houston Cougars and the UCF Golden Knights. Friday night games are crazy and unpredictable, but in this case, I think one team is far better than the other. Both are looking to rebound from losses last week. UCF lost to Baylor, 30-3, in a game that the Knights were awful. That marked their 4^th conference loss, with their only victory coming at home against West Virginia. Coincidentally, that is who beat Houston last week in a surprise upset. The Cougars were upended by the Mountaineers, a painful second conference loss that likely will ruin any hopes of a sneaky conference championship appearance. Given those results, Houston is only a narrow favorite on the road here. I am happy to hammer the heck out of that, as the Cougs are the far better team. Give me Houston -1.

The problem for Houston last week was that they turned the ball over 4 times. Nobody should expect to win like that, and especially not a team that is mostly just average offensively. But the sneaky thing here is that the Houston offense has really been developing lately as Conner Weigman has gotten more comfortable. The UCF defense is a solid unit, ranking 20^th in the nation overall in total yardage allowed, but they still gave up over 400 yards and 30 points to Baylor last week, and Baylor had a big lead early and mostly took their foot off the gas. More concerning is the Knights’ offense, which looked bland, vanilla, predictable, and ineffective last week. And that was against a terrible Baylor defense; the Houston defense is much more formidable. I just don’t see this game going the way of the Knights, even at home on a Friday night.

Houston vs UCF Prediction: Houston -1 (-110) available at the time of publication. Playable to -2.5.

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The Northwestern Wildcats will need to be ready for a big test Friday night when they travel to California to take on the USC Trojans. Northwestern is 5-3 on the season and 3-2 in the Big Ten Conference. They lost their last game to the Nebraska Cornhuskers 28-21 in Lincoln, Nebraska. Quarterback Peyton Stone struggled in this game, only completing around 50% of his passes and throwing 2 interceptions. Northwestern showed fight on the road, coming back from a 21-6 2nd half deficit. They tied the game in the fourth quarter, but ended up losing the game late. The USC Trojans find themselves as the 19th-ranked team in the country after starting the season 6-2 and 4-1 in the Big Ten Conference. The Trojans defeated Nebraska in their previous game 21-17 on the road. The Trojans also had a 2nd half deficit, but USC was able to take home the win after trailing 14-6. Quarterback Jayden Maiava was only 9 of 23 passing and 1 interception, but the Trojans ran for 202 yards. A majority of those yards came from King Miller, who ran for 129 yards and 1 touchdown. 

There is little room for error for head coach Lincoln Riley and the USC Trojans if they want to make the college football playoff. With ranked Iowa and Oregon coming up next, the Trojans need to make sure they don’t overlook a Northwestern team that is coming off a bye week. Northwestern is a team that will not want to take a lot of chances. They will want to condense the game with their rushing attack, create short third-downs, and rely on Stone to make less than a handful of big throws throughout the game. Against Power Four competition, the Wildcats have not scored more than 22 points all season. With Northwestern still finding success this season, it goes to show the formula for their running game and solid defense has worked. USC has one of the best passing games in college football, averaging 302 yards per game. This number has them ranked 10th in the FBS in that category, but they will be tested in this game against a Northwestern defense that is ranked 14th against the pass. The Wildcats only allow on average 173 passing yards per game. It will be strength on strength when USC’s offense and Northwestern’s defense share the field. USC may very well win this game, but I believe the Wildcats, with an extra week to prepare, will be able to present some problems for the Trojans passing game. 

Northwestern vs USC prediction: Northwestern +14.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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A massive game in the AAC headline’s Friday night’s action when the Tulane Green Wave travel to Memphis to play the Tigers. Tulane enters this contest fresh off an ugly loss at UTSA in which the Green Wave turned the ball over 4 times, including 2 Jake Retzlaff interceptions, a Brendan Sullivan interception, and a fumble lost by RB Javin Gordon. The loss firmly removes Tulane from the College Football Playoff picture if it wasn’t already, but the Green Wave are still 3-1 in the AAC with a real chance to play for a conference championship with a win in Memphis on Friday night. 

Speaking of the CFP, Memphis sits at 8-1 with a renewed chance to be the postseason Group of 5 representative thanks to its comeback win over USF a couple weeks ago. The Tigers followed that performance up by taking care of business at Rice last week, easily covering the 14-point spread while holding the Owls to 212 total yards. QB Brendon Lewis left the game late to a lower-body injury, and his status is technically in question for this game. Though, we heard that leading up to the USF game, in which he ended up playing. Considering he practiced on Monday, expect Lewis to be a full-go here again.

Interestingly enough, Tulane is taking some money as I write this on Tuesday evening, which is a move I disagree with. First, this will be the 2nd game of a back-to-back road trip for Tulane, and playing on the road hasn’t been all that kind to the Green Wave this year despite coach Jon Sumrall’s prior success against the number as a visitor. For reference, Tulane is just 1-3 ATS on the road this year. Conversely, Memphis has been a money machine this year, currently 8-1 SU and ATS including home wins over the aforementioned Bulls and the Arkansas Razorbacks of the SEC. In fact, the Tigers have been impossible to beat at home since the start of last year. 

Obviously playing at home is advantageous, but playing clean football is also advantageous – and that’s exactly what Memphis has done of late. The Tigers have just 1 turnover in their last 3 games, bolstering their top-10 turnover margin. They’ve also been relatively clean from a penalty perspective, sitting top-50 in penalties per game. Meanwhile, the Green Wave are 116th in penalties per game, and though Retzlaff has thrown just 3 picks this year, he has 8 turnover-worthy plays in his last 4 games – and it finally caught up to him last week when he was benched in the blowout loss to UTSA. Given the fact that Memphis is top-30 in havoc generated by defensive backs over the last 5 weeks, Retzlaff could be in for another turnover-filled day. 

Perhaps the biggest advantage for Memphis in this game is in the red zone. The Tigers reach the red zone at a top-20 rate and boast the 3rd-best scoring percentage in the country, which includes both touchdowns and field goals. When you cut that down to just touchdowns, the Tigers are #1, finding the end zone on 82% of their red zone trips. Tulane, on the other hand, has found pay dirt on just 50% of red zone trips. Defensively, it’s much of the same. The Tigers surrender points on 75% of opposing red zone trips, while the Green Wave yield points on over 86% of those possessions. 

Expecting Lewis to play, I make Memphis over a touchdown favorite at home against Tulane. Look for the Tigers to excel in red zone situations, play clean football, and make use of their more efficient and explosive rushing attack in a win and cover at home. For what it’s worth, if the opportunity presented itself, the Tigers would probably want to run the score up to make their CFP resume look better; just something to consider. 

Tulane vs Memphis prediction: Memphis Tigers -4.5 (-110) at the time of publishing. Playable to -7. 

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What can we say? Indiana has been boat-racing just about everyone it has seen this year — with the lone exception being Iowa. Many will argue the Hoosiers could be the best team in the country, and it’s hard to push back. They’ve been balanced, explosive, and punishing – a dynamic offense, stingy defense, and an overall physicality that’s overwhelmed opponents. Indiana has been running teams over, make no mistake. Penn State, meanwhile, has been a disappointment in market terms. The Nittany Lions have covered just once all season and are coming off another ATS loss at Ohio State. In that game, PSU hung tough — down only 3 at the half as an 18.5-point dog — before getting blanked 21-0 in the third and never recovering.

So why back Penn State here? Value. In the summer look-ahead line, the Nittany Lions were as high as -16.5 in some spots. Now they’re catching over 2 touchdowns— an over 30 point market flip once you factor preseason expectations vs. current perception. That’s a classic buy-low underdog number, and this time it’s in Happy Valley. If there was ever a “right spot” for Penn State to rise up and turn its season narrative around, this is it. Don’t be shocked if the Nittany Lions don’t just cover, but flirt with the outright upset.

Indiana vs Penn State prediction: Penn State +15 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The Ohio State Buckeyes hit the road for West Lafayette to battle the lowly Purdue Boilermakers. The No. 1-ranked Buckeyes rolled the Penn State Nittany Lions last week, and they have scored 34 or more points in each of the past 4 games, while going 7-0-1 ATS this season. The defense allowed 14 points in the first 2 quarters last week against the Nittany Lions, but the D has still allowed just 55 points through 8 games, or 6.9 points per game. Against Purdue, Ohio State rolled to a 45-0 win on November 9, 2024 last season in Columbus, covering a 37-point mark. The Buckeyes are 3-0 ATS in the past 2 meetings, covering spreads of 17 or more points. Ohio State has scored 41 or more points in 4 of the past 5 tries against Penn State, and the winning team has scored at least 41 points in each of the past 5 in the series.

For Purdue, the Boilermakers are 2-7 SU and 3-5-1 ATS. While the Boilermakers did put up a fight, falling just 21-16 last week at Michigan as a 21-point underdog, the offense continues to struggle to cobble together any points. The defense hasn’t really been trampled in the past 4 games, but that’s also against Michigan, Rutgers, Northwestern and Minnesota. In 3 straight games against USC, Notre Dame and Illinois, the Boilermakers allowed 132 total points, or 44.0 PPG, including 99 combined points against the Illini and Irish. QB Julian Sayin, WR Jeremiah Smith and the Buckeyes should roll the Boilermakers.

Ohio State vs Purdue prediction: Ohio State Buckeyes -30 (-110) at time of publishing. Playable to -33.5.

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It’s been a dramatic couple of weeks for LSU. Prior to their bye week, the Tigers lost for a 3rd time in 4 outings. Their most recent loss was the ugliest of them all, not only on the field, but on the sideline thanks to former head coach Brian Kelly’s antics. With a week to recoup and re-focus, the Tigers will likely put forth a very motivated effort against one of their rivals in Alabama on Saturday, but how much will that matter? 

Unlike we’ve seen in recent years, LSU has struggled on both sides of the ball. The Tigers are outside the top 80 in scoring and outside the top 90 in total offense, and while their defensive metrics are better on the season as a whole, their worst performances of the year were against Vanderbilt and Texas A&M – their 2 most recent opponents.

If the rumors are true about how toxic LSU was under Kelly’s watch, then we can probably expect LSU to look better this week than it has at any other point this season – maybe outside of Week 1. However, like I hinted at earlier, is that actually going to matter much on the field? LSU’s primary issues on the offensive end are a poor rushing attack and a sub-optimal offensive line. Will those magically improve in Kelly’s absence? I doubt it, but I suppose it’s possible. However, if they don’t, a lot of responsibility is going to fall on the arm of QB Garrett Nussmeier, which is not what the Tigers want. Alabama’s defensive strength is in its secondary, as the Tide currently sit top-12 in passing yards allowed per game, top-15 in passing touchdowns allowed, and top-20 in yards per pass attempt this season. More recently, ‘Bama ranks 7th in PPA per pass allowed since Week 6, which includes games against Tennessee, Missouri with a healthy Beau Pribula, and Vanderbilt.

On the defensive side, LSU’s play-to-play efficiency has dropped off precipitously over the last 5 weeks. The Tigers are 98th in points allowed per quality drive and 108th in PPA per play allowed in that time, and they haven’t applied much pressure to opposing quarterbacks – sitting 107th in havoc generated by their front 7 since the beginning of October. That has been a season-long issue though, as the Tigers are outside the top 60 in sacks and outside the top 100 in tackles for loss – which is music to Alabama QB Ty Simpson’s ears. He should have all day to throw behind an above-average offensive line. 

Alabama head coach Kalen DeBoer has been excellent following bye weeks during his tenure in Tuscaloosa. The Tide are 3-0 SU and ATS after being idle under his watch, including 2 wins over Georgia and last year’s convincing 41-13 win at LSU. That game was never really in question. This time around, I expect the Tigers to put up a strong fight early before the Tide pull away late and win yet another home game by double digits.

LSU vs Alabama prediction: Alabama Crimson Tide -10 (-110) at the time of publishing. Playable at that number or better.

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