College Football Parlays

The Clemson Tigers dropped their opening game at home in primetime against LSU, accumulating just 261 yards and averaging a paltry 1.6 yards per rush attempt. Things didn’t get much better in Week 2 against Troy, as Clemson faced a 16-3 deficit at halftime. The Tigers ended up winning 27-16, but they totaled only 316 yards and still averaged fewer than 4 yards per rush attempt. Even without wide receiver Antonio Williams, who was out for both games due to a hamstring issue, you expect those offensive numbers to be better against Troy.

The Yellow Jackets clawed their way to victory at Colorado in Week 1 after they turned the ball over on their opening 3 possessions. When they weren’t turning the ball over, the Jackets looked good, racking up 6.8 yards per rush attempt and more than 460 total yards of offense. They carried that momentum forward to Week 2 and took care of business against FCS Gardner-Webb despite quarterback Haynes King missing the contest. King looked beat up at the end of the Colorado game, so I’m not surprised the coaching staff held him out of the FCS game. However, I expect him to play in this game, especially considering the line movement we’ve seen early in the week. Money has poured in on GT, dropping the line from 6 – where it briefly sat after opening – all the way to where it is now around 3.5 points. I don’t believe the line would have moved that much if there was any doubt about King’s availability. 

Williams returning to the field would be a big boost for Clemson’s offense, though I am alarmed by what we’ve seen from the Tigers to this point. Through 2 games, the Tigers are 79th in yards per play and 119th in PPA per play, which is a far cry from what we expected from them this season. Moreover, they’ve had very little success running the ball – even against an inferior opponent in Troy – which does not bode well for the Tigers in a true road game to open conference play. For reference, the Tigers are outside the top 100 in PPA per rush and rushing explosiveness through 2 games. 

Expecting Georgia Tech to have a more successful ground game, the Jackets should be able to string together multiple methodical drives and limit Clemson’s time of possession. I power rate this game around 2 points, so I still perceive there to be value on Georgia Tech at this current price and will take the points with the Jackets. Don’t be afraid to sprinkle on the ML, as it wouldn’t surprise me to see an outright Georgia Tech win.

Clemson vs Georgia Tech prediction: Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets +3.5 (-110) available at publishing. Playable to 2

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One of the biggest games on the Week 3 college football slate comes in Knoxville, Tennessee, where the Georgia Bulldogs will take on the Tennessee Volunteers in a pivotal SEC clash on Saturday. This series has been dominated by Georgia in the Kirby Smart era, and while these teams are trending in different directions heading into this matchup on paper, I’m very confident in backing the Bulldogs to maintain control of this rivalry and pick up a win and cover in Rocky Top.

There are some justifiable concerns to be had for Georgia on the surface. After all, the Bulldogs offense has looked fairly mediocre over the first two games of the campaign. New quarterback Gunner Stockton is not pushing the ball downfield all that much and the offensive line is still a question mark given all of the pieces they are rotating at different positions. However, Georgia playing it very safe and keeping things vanilla against inferior opponents in nonconference play is nothing new for Smart, and I have a feeling that this Bulldogs staff will have a much stronger offensive gameplan in store against an untested Tennessee defense.

As for the Georgia defense, it’s abundantly clear that the Bulldogs aren’t anywhere near as dominant as what we’ve seen from them in seasons past. However, this is a unit that still ranks inside the top 20 in most of the meaningful advanced metrics, including success rate allowed, net points per drive, EPA margin and third and 4th down success rate allowed. Conversely, the Tennessee offense has historically struggled when facing this Georgia defense in the Smart era, and while new quarterback Joe Aguilar has looked very solid thus far, this is an entirely new test for the former Appalachian State gunslinger that has shown a propensity to turn the ball over in his 3 seasons as a starter.

Ultimately, I fully expect the Bulldogs to bounce back after a pretty mediocre showing against Austin Peay in a game that shouldn’t matter all that much considering the obvious look-ahead spot at hand. Georgia is still the top dog in this conference and the dominant team in this series, and I’ll make Tennessee prove it to me before I change my tune.

Georgia vs Tennessee prediction: Georgia -3.5 available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The Texas Tech Red Raiders host the Oregon State Beavers on Saturday afternoon. The Beavers continue to play a quasi-independent schedule as they wait on the Pac-12 to reconstitute, but in the meantime, they are not very good. They were blasted by Cal in the season opener, and Cal is picked to finish at the bottom of the ACC. They then lost at home to Fresno State, although to be fair, Oregon State controlled the game statistically in every way except the score. The Beavers will travel to Lubbock to face a Texas Tech team that I think is very good, but one that hasn’t really drawn national attention yet. This game is the Red Raiders’ chance to prove themselves before conference play gets going, and I think they will win big. My Oregon State vs Texas Tech best bet is the Red Raiders -23.5.

The Red Raiders invested heavily in the transfer portal, and they got a lot better in the offseason. They boast a dangerous veteran QB in Behren Morton who has mastery over a high-scoring offensive system, and he had 250 yards and 3 TDs while basically only playing the first half. Sure, they have been untested thus far — playing Arkansas-Pine Bluff and lowly Kent State, but that has only helped keep this number down. With a very navigable conference schedule, this team should continue to climb. I don’t think Oregon State has the defensive horses to stop Tech, and the run-first, ball control offense isn’t the right way to combat the Red Raiders. I think this one gets ugly.

Oregon State vs Texas Tech prediction: Texas Tech -23.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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