MLB Picks

Toronto had a great comeback on Saturday against Minnesota, but overall it was another bad weekend and lost yet another series. They might be the best last-place team in the majors — hardly consolation right now. The Blue Jays have to quickly get some wins or else manager John Schneider is going to get fired (even though it is not his fault). Meanwhile, Baltimore has been great this season even if its weekend series against Arizona ended with a thud. The O’s open the week just a half-game up on the Yankees. They are first in the Majors in homers, led by 12 from third baseman Gunnar Henderson (second in MLB).

This is the first time the Orioles have seen the Blue Jays this season. Toronto’s Jose Berrios began the season with 7 starts yielding no more than 2 runs. However, in his last start he gave up 8 — massively tilting his ERA. If that was just a blip then this will easily be his best season as a Blue Jay. O’s Righty Corbin Burnes has lost his last 2 starts, but that is going to happen when your team scores a combined zero runs. For the most part they have gotten exactly what they expected: a pitcher who gives them a chance to win every time out. The Orioles won his first 5 starts of the season. 

It is easy to make Baltimore the favorite at home in the AL East series — especially with Burnes on the bump. I like Berrios to bounce back and pitch well, which is why I am taking the Jays on the run line. Toronto is 5-5 against division opponents this season. Berrios’ numbers are clouded by that awful Philly outing. 

Blue Jays +1.5 available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The Mets won in dramatic fashion last night with a walk-off two-run blast from Brandon Nimmo in the bottom of the 9th against the Braves to give them a 4-3 victory.  Today, the Mets are set to face a red-hot Phillies team who have won 8 of their last 10 and fans are hoping that the walk-off win in the 9th provided the Mets with some momentum heading into this four-game series.  

The Phillies are sending lefty Christopher Sanchez to the mound who is 2-3 this season with a 3.22 ERA.  In Sanchez’s last start he threw seven innings, giving up just one earned run and striking out five against the Blue Jays. To face Sanchez, the Mets will be sending Sean Manaea to the mound who is 2-1 this season with a 3.31 ERA. In Manaea’s last start against the Cardinals, he threw for six innings, striking out one and surrendered three earned runs.  

Philadelphia ranks among the top hitting teams in the league this season, boasting a .261 team batting average, a .760 OPS, and the second-most RBIs at 203. In contrast, the Mets sit at 19th in batting average with .236, a .682 OPS, and 160 RBIs. While both teams feature strong pitching staffs, the Phillies hold a significant advantage at the plate.  Look for the Phillies to come out swinging and get the job done in game one in this four game series.  

Phillies ML at -120 available at the time of publishing. Playable to -130.

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The Boston Red Sox host the Tampa Bay Rays for a series opener this evening with Zach Eflin (3.75 ERA, 1.13 WHIP) getting the start for TB and Kutter Crawford 1.75 ERA, 1.08 WHIP) toeing the rubber for the Sox. Crawford has been excellent this season with 5 quality starts to his name, and in the 3 starts he didn’t go a full 6 innings, he surrendered just 1 ER in 15.1 IP. However, his underlying numbers (2.99 xERA, 3.99 xFIP) suggest he is due for regression, and I wouldn’t be surprised if that happened against this Red Sox team that ranks 9th in BA (.243) vs RHP. 

It’s tough to say exactly who has the edge on the mound today, as Eflin has had some incredible outing of his own, yet remains inconsistent when looking at his entire body of work. He has four starts surrendering 1 or 0 ER, yet has been cracked for 5+ runs by weaker lineups (CHW, LAA) this year. The majority of his poor starts have come on the road in a hitter’s ballpark, which is exactly what he’ll be playing in today at Fenway. He holds a 4.76 road ERA and .287 BAA compared to a 2.84 ERA at home and .230 BAA. Boston has several capable hitters in the lineup and ranks in the top half of the league in wRC+ vs RHP. Crawford might have the slight edge overall, but this one might come down to the bullpens, where Boston has a significant advantage. Tampa Bay’s ‘pen ranks 27th with a combined ERA of 4.83 compared to Boston up in the top 5 with a 3.19 bullpen ERA. With all things considered, Boston has the slight edge in this one and I’ll be taking them to get the win at home.

Red Sox ML (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable to -125.

The Cubs head to Atlanta for a set that begins Monday. Both teams won 2 of 3 over the weekend, but these teams feel like they have different momentum. The Cubs are vastly outperforming their preseason expectations, sitting only half a game out of the division lead and probably playing the best ball in the NL Central. As for the Braves, they are winning but not playing great baseball by their standards. They got walked off by the Mets last night and have been looking up at the Phillies in the standings for awhile now. I expect Atlanta to win this series, but Monday is a good opportunity for the Cubs; I like the plus money to back them in what ought to be a fairly even game.

We have 2 starting pitchers who have been lights out to start the season. Shota Imanaga has been everything the Cubs hoped he would be, and we can probably safely ride him for awhile until the league gets a couple of looks at him. The fact that the Braves’ offense has been cold for a couple of weeks will only help Imanaga. The Braves will turn to Reynaldo Lopez. He was once a highly-touted prospect who couldn’t find success, moved to the bullpen, switched teams a couple times and then was rescued by the Braves and rebuilt. There is not a lot of reason to expect Lopez to fall apart; he might actually be this good now. Both guys have an ERA well under 2.00 for the season. Both bullpens should be in good shape tonight, too, although both teams used several high-leverage arms yesterday. To me, this game looks really even, so I like the idea that we can get +120 on the visiting Cubs. As long as Atlanta continues to struggle some at the plate, I’m okay with fading this team from time to time.

Cubs ML at +120 available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The Texas Rangers make a much needed return to Globe LIfe Field Monday after being swept by the lowly Colorado Rockies. The Clevaland Guardians continue their road trip after winning just one game against the Chicago White Sox in a 4 game series.

Both teams have been struggling in their past 10 games, going 5-5 in their last 10. I like the Rangers in this one as I do not see a team with this much talent losing 4 in a row. Rangers starter Michael Lorenzen (4.66 ERA) got rocked his last outing giving up 6 earned runs. The last time he gave up 5 or more earned runs he followed it up with a gem giving up just one earned run against a dangerous Royals lineup. 

Guardians starter Tanner Bibee (4.91 ERA) has given up 10 earned runs his past two starts in 9 innings pitched. His fastball has been downright terrible this year, having a run value of 1, which is the worst possible rating to have. This should bode well for the Rangers as they have .267 batting average against fastballs from right handed pitchers. The 5th best in MLB. 

The Rangers also have winning records at home and as the favorite. Back them here as they should get the win in a tightly contested matchup. 

Rangers ML -115 available at time of publishing. Playable to -120

The Cincinnati Reds visit the Arizona Diamondbacks to open a 3-game series on Monday night, and the best betting value looks to be the under 8.5 runs. Both offenses have been scuffling lately, making the under an attractive play. The Reds were just swept at home by the Diamondbacks last week, scoring only 9 total runs in the three games. Cincinnati has really been struggling at the plate, scoring 2 or fewer runs in 6 of their last 10 games entering Monday. The Reds rank just 17th in MLB in runs per game (4.28).

Arizona’s offense has also cooled off after a hot start. The Diamondbacks have scored 4 or fewer runs in 6 of their last 10 contests. Although they rank 5th in runs per game (4.90), their recent offensive lull aligns with Cincinnati’s woes. With Graham Ashcraft (3.86 ERA) taking the ball for the Reds against Jordan Montgomery (4.70 ERA) for Arizona, this shapes up as a pitchers’ duel. The 2 starters just faced off last Wednesday, with the game totaling only 7 combined runs in Arizona’s 4-3 win.

The under was 2-0-1 in last week’s Reds-Diamondbacks series. With both lineups slumping and the starters familiar with each other, look for another low-scoring affair to stay under 8.5 total runs on Monday night.

Under 8 runs at +100 available at time of publishing. Playable at that number or at 8.5 with a -120 price.

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It might have taken a little while to get going, but the Dodgers are right where we expected. They did not have a good weekend on the road at San Diego, though, scoring just 6 runs in a series loss. Those have been rare and they swept the Giants at home back at the beginning of April; the team is in better form now. The Giants did win on Saturday and Sunday to take their series against Cincinnati. They have been sputtering most of the season, though. This is just a pretty average team so they are gong to win some series now and there but it is hard to see how they would ever put together a run to be competitive in the National League.

I am not sure where Gavin Stone fits in the big picture for the Dodgers, but they are 5-2 in his starts this season. Although the underlying numbers are just OK, with that lineup behind him he is going to be very playable in lots of situations. It is interesting watching fireballer Jordan Hicks as a starter for SF this season. The strikeout numbers are not there, but an ERA of 2.30 is strong and he is still so hard to barrel up and his record is 3-1. 

The Giants are heavy underdogs even at home tonight. That is generally the case against the Dodgers, but with Hicks on the mound I think they are at least worth a shot on the run line. Two of those 3 losses last month were by a score of 5-4 and that was in L.A. At home with that last at-bat to keep it close, I like the value. I think Hicks can out-pitch Stone as as a good start. 

Giants +1.5 available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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