Parlays

Luis Gil delivered a standout performance last night against Baltimore, tossing 6.1 scoreless innings and striking out 5 to secure a much needed win for the Yankees, bringing them level with the Orioles at the top of the AL East. The only 2 runs in the game came off the bat of Oswaldo Cabrera’s 2-run homer in the 5th inning. Today the Yankees turn to the left-hander Carlos Rodon (2-1, 2.48 ERA) to maintain their momentum, while Kyle Bradish makes his season debut for the Orioles after coming off the injured list.

Rodon has been impressive in recent outings, throwing 6.0 innings against the Brewers while allowing just 1 run while striking out 8. There isn’t anything to base this year’s performance on for Bradish, but in 2023 he was nearly lights out. Bradish had a 2.83 ERA with 168 strikeouts in 168.2 innings pitched. Throughout his career, Bradish is 1-1 against the Yankees with a 3.54 ERA and 19 strikeouts.  

With both teams eager to claim sole possession of the AL East lead and well-rested bullpens, today’s game should be an exciting one. While Bradish’s performance remains uncertain, Rodon’s recent outings show he is ready to take on the Orioles in today’s matchup.  The Yankees should have a few scoring opportunities against Bradish, but they need to find a way to capitalize on those chances; they have only scored 4 runs in this entire series. Look for the Yankees to find a way to get it done and take control of the AL East before heading to Detroit.

Yankees ML at -135 available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.  

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The Chicago Cubs and New York Mets finish up their 4-game series at Citi Field this afternoon. Although each of the first 3 games fell under the game total, Thursday appears to be favorable for each team’s lineup. Chicago will be playing its 10th game in as many days, while the Mets will play for their 7th consecutive day — leaving the teams’ bullpen vulnerable. While the bullpens might be thin, my biggest concern is the starting pitching matchup. Ben Brown and Adrian Houser take the ball for their respective ballclubs and neither one has put together a strong start to his season.

Brown is making his 4th start and 8th overall appearance for the Cubs while compiling a 4.30 ERA but a 5.78 xERA. Brown’s first 2 starts went smoothly enough, but his last outing on April 27 lasted just 3.2 innings after surrendering 3 earned runs on 7 hits. The underlying metrics for Brown don’t suggest much improvement, either, as his barrel percentage and hard-hit percentage both rank in the 4th percentile or lower. Houser, although having much more experience than Brown, also isn’t off to a hot start. Through his first 5 starts, Houser owns a 8.37 ERA and has given up 5 or more earned runs on 3 occasions. The most eye-popping statistic is the fact that Houser has just 14 strikeouts to 16 walks through 23.2 innings. Houser’s xERA, xBA, average exit velocity, chase rate and strikeout rate all rank in the 9th percentile or worse. I’m expecting some runs in this one.

Over 8.5 available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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As the Washington Nationals and Texas Rangers prepare to square off in the rubber match of their three-game series, all signs point to a pitcher’s duel at Globe Life Field. The pitching matchup features two starters in top form – Nathan Eovaldi for the Rangers and Mitchell Parker for the Nationals.

Eovaldi has been stellar this season, posting a 3.00 ERA with 36 strikeouts over 30 innings. The veteran right-hander is coming off a strong outing where he limited the Reds to just one run over six frames. On the other side, rookie southpaw Parker has been even better with a microscopic 1.69 ERA through his first three major league starts.

Both offenses have been middling at best, with the Rangers ranking 14th in runs scored and the Nationals 20th. Globe Life Field itself is a pitcher’s park, favoring those on the mound. With two quality starters toeing the rubber and two offenses that have struggled to produce consistently, this game has all the makings of a low-scoring affair.

For bettors, the smart money appears to be on the under 8 runs. Eovaldi and Parker have the stuff to keep the bats quiet, making the under a highly attractive wager as these two clubs battle for a series win in Arlington.

UNDER 8 available at time of publishing. Playable only at this number.

To start off our MLB parlay, I’m going with the Texas Rangers on the run line. This is simply too much of a mismatch to not take advantage of it, and it all starts on the mound with Nathan Eovaldi getting the ball for Texas. Outside of one poor effort against the Astros, Eovaldi has pitched like a primetime performer this season, allowing 3 runs or less in all but one outing, to the tune of a 3.00 ERA. He should be delighted to face a Nationals lineup that is 21st in slugging and on-base percentage on the season. Conversely, while young star prospect Mitchell Parker has been brilliant for the Nats in his last 2 outings, this is a much tougher lineup and situation than the one he just faced in Miami against the lowly Marlins. Let’s back the Rangers in this clash.

For the second leg of our MLB parlay on Thursday, I’m going with the San Francisco Giants to defeat the Boston Red Sox. While Boston has won 4 consecutive games heading into this one, the status of the Red Sox starting pitcher is cause for major concern. Alex Cora’s team will give the ball to Josh Winckowski to begin the game, who was pressed into service as a starter recently because Nick Pivetta, Garrett Whitlock and Brayan Bello are all on the injured list. Winckowski has yet to complete 4 full innings, and we shouldn’t expect him to work deep into this game, which puts a great deal of stress on the Red Sox bullpen to cover the middle and late innings in this contest. On the other side, Giants lefty Kyle Harrison has worked 6 innings in 3 of his 5 starts, while staying well below 100 pitches in each. If he can maintain that level of efficiency, it’s hard not to like San Francisco here.

To close it out this MLB parlay, I’m going to be backing a high-scoring matchup between the Cleveland Guardians and Houston Astros. While these offenses have been fairly inconsistent of late, this is more of a straight fade of a couple of starting pitchers who have yet to figure things out in 2024. Logan Allen holds a 5.46 ERA for the Guardians, but the more troubling thing for Cleveland is Allen has a max exit velocity in the bottom 5 percentile of all qualified pitchers this season. When teams make contact, the ball goes a long way, and I’m fearful for his chances in a hitters’ park in Houston. It’s not like things have been much better for Spencer Arrighetti, who has a whopping 10.97 ERA after a trio of disappointing outings where he failed to clear 4 innings pitched. Look for both teams to attack the opposing starter in a game that should see plenty of runs.

The Milwaukee Bucks forced Game 6 on Monday after defeating the Indiana Pacers 115-92. That contest was in Milwaukee and the Bucks got the job done without Giannis Antetokounmpo and Damian Lillard. They will most likely have to win again without their stars, as both Giannis and Lillard are listed as doubtful for Thursday’s game. The Bucks won behind 29 points from both Bobby Portis and Khris Middleton and a gritty effort from Patrick Beverly. The Pacers did not see a good performance from their star players in Game 5. Pascal Siakam scored 12 points and Tyrese Haliburton had 16. It’s possible that the Pacers’ youth and inexperience in the postseason may have caused a lapse in judgement and effort in Game 5 due to the injuries that have plagued Milwaukee. But I believe the Pacers will come out aggressive on Thursday. After leading the series 3-1, the last thing the Pacers want is to let this game head back to Milwaukee for a decider.

The series is swinging back to the Gainbridge Fieldhouse in Indiana, where the Pacers are 2-0 in this playoff series. The Pacers won Game 3 at home 121-118 in overtime and 126-113 in Game 4. In both Games 3 and 4 we saw the typical “run-and-gun,” high-tempo Indiana offense. Game 3 was only close after Milwaukee erased a 15-point 3rd-quarter thanks to behind 42 points from Khris Middleton. Indiana is going to look to re-establish this fast-paced style of play after a contest in which it was limited in its usual transition opportunities. To the eyes of the viewer, the Bucks simply wanted Game 5 more. They were the more desperate team. Indiana needs to be ready for the Bucks to play with that same desperation as they stare down elimination. The Pacers are a young team and are only just now learning how difficult it is to put a team away in the postseason. With the Pacers back at home, I have them closing this series out in a big way. The Bucks are a veteran team, but the lack of talent in their current roster leaves too much to be desired. The best example I can provide is that it’s 2024 and Danilo Gallinari logged over 20 minutes for Milwaukee in Game 5. The Bucks gave their best effort without their stars in this series, but tonight’s game is an opportunity the Pacers cannot let pass them by.

Pacers -8 available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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Closing out an opponent once again proved to be the toughest thing to do in the NBA as the Knicks wasted a 6-point lead with under 30 seconds to go in Game 5, ultimately losing 112-106 to the 76ers. Jalen Brunson was once again spectacular with 40 points, but as a unit the Knicks had flaws on offense which cost them the game. They recorded 19 assists to Philly’s 28, they were outrebounded by 6 boards and outshot from three-point land by almost 11%. Game 6 will be difficult, New York used just 2 bench players on Tuesday, their rotation now depends on a total of 7 players. Although they did win Game 4 there, the Knicks are still just 5-12 SU in their last 17 visits to Philadelphia.

Tyrese Maxey is an absolute stud. He came up with huge back-to-back threes to bring the Sixers back from the dead in the final 30 seconds of the game, his 46 points set a new 76ers record for elimination games, surpassing the great Allen Iverson who dropped 44 in a game back in 2001. All the pressure now shifts to the Knicks again, I cannot even imagine the scrutiny they would face if they were to blow a 3-1 lead. Joel Embiid didn’t shot the ball all that well in Game 5, but still ended the game with a triple-double. Philly is 6-1 SU in their last 7 home games and 11-3 ATS in their last 14 vs East teams.

These two teams could not have played each other tighter over the first 5 games of this series. Philadelphia has scored 2 points more than the Knicks so far in the series, I have them covering the spread here and winning forcing Game 7 which will take place on Saturday at Madison Square Garden.

76ers -3 available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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