Andrew Wilsher

The Philadelphia 76ers head to TD Garden for Game 5 facing elimination against the Boston Celtics, who hold a commanding 3-1 series lead after a dominant Game 4 performance. Boston cruised to a 128-96 victory, jumping out early and never looking back behind efficient shooting and balanced scoring. Jayson Tatum led the way with 30 points and 11 assists, while Payton Pritchard provided a major spark off the bench with 32 points. The Celtics knocked down threes at a high clip, controlled the glass, and showcased the depth that has made them one of the most complete teams in the league. When Boston’s ball movement and spacing are clicking at that level, they become extremely difficult to contain, especially for a Philadelphia team that has struggled to find consistent two-way rhythm.

Despite the blowout, Game 5 presents a slightly different dynamic. Boston has not always been reliable against the spread following big wins, and with a chance to close out the series at home, there’s potential for a more measured approach rather than another full throttle performance. On the other side, Philadelphia’s outlook remains uncertain. While Joel Embiid has produced individually, the supporting cast has been inconsistent, and the overall effort in Game 4 raised concerns about their ability to respond under pressure. Still, with their season on the line, the Sixers are likely to prioritize defensive intensity and tempo control in an effort to avoid another lopsided outcome.

From a stylistic perspective, elimination games often trend toward slower, more physical play with fewer transition opportunities and more half court execution. Boston may not need to push pace if they can establish control early, while Philadelphia will aim to shorten the game and limit possessions. Combined with potential shooting regression from Boston after an outlier performance, this sets up as a more methodical contest. Rather than focusing on the spread, the total stands out as the stronger angle given the likely shift in tempo and intensity.

76ers vs Celtics Game 5 prediction: Under 213.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 212.

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The Atlanta Hawks and New York Knicks will wage a crucial contest as the NBA playoffs continue with Game 5 of this Eastern Conference first-round series at Madison Square Garden on Tuesday night. The 2 teams have taken turns leading this series, which is now all tied up at 2-2 heading back to New York. Neither offense has been doing much of anything through four games, and I expect that trend to continue. My Hawks vs Knicks pick is Under 213.5. Atlanta is averaging just 104.0 ppg so far during these playoffs and has not exceeded 109 points in any game, while New York (110.3 ppg) has not been much better and has not exceeded 114 points on any occasion.

What’s especially concerning for the visitors is that Jalen Johnson’s production is down across the board. During the regular season, Johnson averaged 22.5 ppg on 48.9 percent shooting from the floor and 35.2 percent from 3-point range. Through four playoff games, the former Duke standout is averaging 19.5 ppg while shooting 41.9 percent from the field and 28.6 percent from downtown. Nickeil Alexander-Walker has also been held in check by the Knicks. He went 5-for-10 from deep in Saturday’s loss but contributed nothing else and finished with just 15 points. Alexander-Walker is averaging just 13.8 ppg after contributing 20.8 ppg during the regular season. For New York, Mikal Bridges has been a complete disaster. His playoff point totals are 11, 10, zero and 8.

Hawks vs Knicks Game 5 prediction: Under 213.5 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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This has been a fascinating series to this point, and the past couple of games in Portland have seen tremendous swings in momentum, as the Spurs have rallied from massive deficits in each of the last 2 games en route to a pair of road victories to secure total control of this series. San Antonio was able to knock off the Trail Blazers without the services of Victor Wembanyama in Game 3, and the French superstar returned to the court in a major way in Game 4 with 27 points and 12 rebounds while recording 7 blocks and 4 steals in the victory. Wembanyama should control the paint and severely limit the Trail Blazers offense once again in Game 5, but there is a path for Portland to keep this game respectable, and it comes on the defensive side of the ball.

Traditionally, close-out games are difficult for any team, and that should especially be true for a Spurs side that is in their first playoff series as a collective unit. Furthermore, every game in this series has been within single digits in the second half, and there’s a good reason for that. After all, the Trail Blazers are an above-average defense and they have proven to be a somewhat formidable opponent for this San Antonio offense. As long as the Spurs don’t have a super hot shooting game from beyond the arc, it’s hard to see the Spurs getting to 120 points in a game that should feature a fewer possession count and a higher level of defensive intensity from the visitors. On the other side of the ball, we know the kind of defense that San Antonio will bring with a fully healthy Wembanyama and the likes of Stephon Castle, Devin Vassell and Dylan Harper on the perimeter. With that in mind, let’s roll with the under on Tuesday.

Trail Blazers vs Spurs Game 5 prediction: Under 215.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 215.  

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This is a mismatch that checks every box. The Cincinnati Reds have been one of the sharper teams out of the gate, sitting at 18-10 and playing especially well at Great American Ball Park—a venue that amplifies offense and punishes pitchers who aren’t sharp. The Reds are also sending out Chase Burns to the mound, and he has been electric. There will be more on him in a second but this a dangerous combination for the Colorado Rockies, who at the time of writing, still don’t know who they are rolling with to start things off on the hill. This means that Colorado will either be deploying the bullpen or implementing an emergency starter.  And they must do that while taking a step up in class. But the market may be inclined to have more faith in the Rocks after a surprising sweep in Queens.

That series win over the Mets says more about New York’s struggles than Colorado’s strength. This is a different environment and a different caliber of opponent. Cincinnati is not in free fall, they’re trending up, and they bring a frontline arm capable of shutting the door early: Chase Burns. Burns boasts a fastball touching 98 mph, nearly 10 strikeouts per nine innings, and a ground ball rate hovering around 50% make him a nightmare matchup. His 2.57 ERA is backed by dominance across the board, including a .190 opponent batting average and elite command. He limits traffic and controls innings, which is exactly what you want when laying a run line. Colorado simply doesn’t have the answers to keep pace here. This is a spot where Cincinnati can be trusted to create separation early and extend it late. Back the Reds to win by margin.

Rockies vs Reds prediction: Reds -1.5 (+100) available at time of publishing. Playable to the number.

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The Boston Red Sox took Game 1 of this series on Monday by a score of 5-0. On Tuesday night we will see the much-anticipated return of Trey Yesavage to the Toronto Blue Jays pitching rotation. He was dominant down the stretch last season and through out the run to the World Series. The Blue Jays offense had an off night on Monday against a very good pitcher in Ranger Suarez who only allowed one hit and struck out 10 batters. Their offense had been trending in a good direction, and I expect it to pick back up on Tuesday night.

Neither starting pitcher has faced any batters in the opposing team’s lineup, so there is no matchup history to look at. Payton Tolle is coming off an impressive 11 strikeout game in his last outing. This is a big game for the Blue Jays as with a loss they will drop to last place in the American League East division. The stadium will be buzzing with the return of Yesavage and the energy will be high. Give me the Blue Jays to bounce back from Monday’s defeat.

Red Sox vs. Blue Jays prediction: Blue Jays ML (-120) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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With Monday’s 8-7 loss to the Chicago White Sox, the Los Angeles Angels have lost 4 in a row and 8 of their last 9. It’s been a brutal run, especially considering they failed to surpass 3 runs in 6 of those 8 losses. The 2 most recent defeats were tough pills to swallow, as the Angels blew a 6-0 lead and lost in extras to the Royals despite plating 9 runs, just to be followed by another significant blown lead in Chicago on Monday. The Angels held a 4-0 lead after 4 and a 5-1 lead going into the bottom of the 7th before the Sox scored 7 of their 8 runs in the bottom frame. LA’s 9th-inning rally fell a run short, and here we are. 

Meanwhile, the White Sox have won 6 of their last 10, which feels like an incredible feat given the state of this organization over the last few years. Today, they will run Davis Martin out to the mound, a right-hander that has been a revelation in Chicago’s rotation. He is 3-1 through 5 starts with a 2.01 ERA and a 1.02 WHIP, totalling 26 strikeouts, 7 walks and just 7 earned runs allowed in his 31.1 innings. That said, I have some concerns about his ability to continue this form, as his 4.66 xERA, 3.62 xFIP and 3.8 SIERA suggest regression is looming. He’s been fortunate to strand 86.1% of baserunners, which is 14.5% higher than last year.

The Angels will send Jose Soriano to the mound, who has been absolutely incredible this season. He is 5-0 in 6 starts and has allowed just 1 run in 37.2 innings, leading the league in wins and ERA while sitting top-5 in strikeouts and WHIP. His profile is impressive thus far, but Soriano is another regression candidate with a 2.73 xERA, 2.84 xFIP and a 3.06 SIERA. Don’t get me wrong, those are still nearly elite numbers, but a 100% left-on-base percentage is unsustainable.

I’m going to lean into the dual-regression theory here and take the over in this game. Yes, both pitchers have been excellent, but I’m not so sure it’s going to continue. On top of that, these are 2 of the worst bullpens in the league – both with ERAs north of 5.00 and WHIPs around 1.60. Not to mention, the White Sox and Angels are both top-6 in the MLB in runs over the last 15 days, as well as top-4 in OBP in that same span. Look for runs in the Southside on Tuesday.

Angels vs White Sox prediction: Over 7.5 (-120) widely availa the time of publishing. Playable to 8 (-105).

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The Sabres put together a dominating performance in Game 4 on Sunday, cruising to a 6-1 win over the Bruins. Now the series moves back to Buffalo with the Sabres looking to close it out. Buffalo jumped out to a 4-0 lead in the 1st period, but it will be interesting to see how they move back to Buffalo impacts their offensive attack. In the first 2 games of the series at KeyBank Center, the Sabres were only able to score goals in the 3rd period. They were held to zero goal across the first 2 periods in both games, and after such an embarrassing performance on Sunday, the Bruins are sure to be much ore defense-minded in this contest.

Offensively, the Bruins have now been held to just 2 total goals over the last 2 games of this series. They can’t seem to muster up much of anything, and the Buffalo defense has been great at limiting Grade A chances. Out of 16 playoff teams, the Bruins rank 14th averaging just 24.0 shots on goal per game. On the other side, Buffalo’s power play is still not clicking, as they are the only team still without a goal on the man advantage in the postseason. All in all, it would be a bit surprising to see a high-scoring game in this one. With a total of 6, look to the under.

Bruins vs Sabres Game 5 prediction: Under 6 (-120) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The Minnesota Wild and Dallas Stars lace ‘em up for a critical Game 5 in their first round NHL series. This series has gone back and forth as expected between these 2 powerful Central Division teams, with the winner of this game being just 1 victory away from advancing. It is time to get you set for the action with our Wild vs. Stars prediction.

After losing 2 straight games, the Wild achieved what needed to be done in a Game 4 win, evening the series. They now own the momentum in the series, and I see them carrying it. While the may be on the road, Minnesota has already shown they can storm an opposing building with confidence, shown by a 6-1 win in Dallas in Game 1. Both Mats Zuccarello and Yakov Trenin are both on pace to play in Game 5, which is a major boost to an already strong lineup, with the 2 combining for just 3 games played in the series. Wild goaltender Jesper Wallstedt has outplayed Stars goaltender Jake Oettinger for most of the series, and Oettinger now has the added pressure to perform well on home ice. Meanwhile, Dallas also awaits to see offensive contributions from key players in Jamie Benn, Thomas Harley and Mavrik Bourque, who have combined for 0 points in 12 man games played. Minnesota has a ton of positives heading into this one, and we are taking them on the money line for our Wild vs. Stars prediction.

Wild vs Stars prediction: Wild ML (+110) available at time of publishing. Playable to -115.

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The Edmonton Oilers are looking to avoid elimination against the Anaheim Ducks in Game 5 of the Western Conference Quarterfinals. This series has produced the highest total goals scored, and that trend is expected to continue tonight. It hasn’t really mattered who is in goal for either team; goals have been scored consistently.

Edmonton is coming off a tough overtime loss due to a controversial goal, but that isn’t its biggest concern. While Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl have performed adequately, they have not shown the level of excellence fans have come to expect. The Oilers’ depth has been tested, and their defence remains a significant concern. We may see Tristan Jarry start in goal again, although he was decent in Game 4; his overall performance since joining Edmonton has been poor.

On the other hand, Anaheim has had little trouble generating shots and scoring chances. They have received offensive contributions from nearly all their players, including solid production from their defense. Expect another exciting game with plenty of goals.

Oilers vs Ducks prediction: Over 7.0 (-105) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number or better.

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This series will be shifting back to Pittsburgh for Game 5 as the Penguins won Game 4 in Philadelphia, avoiding the sweep at the hands of the Flyers. It will be another do or die situation on Monday for the Penguins. Sidney Crosby scored his first goal of the Series in Game 4 and he was dominant in that game. If they are going to pull of a comeback and win this series, it will be on his back. If the Penguins can avoid getting sucked into rough stuff after the whistle and focus on playing 5 on 5 hockey, I like their chances to continue this series. If they can win one more game, the seed of doubt begins to be planted in the minds of the Flyers. The Penguins have 4 future first-ballot hall of famers on their team; they will not be bowing out easily.

It is difficult to imagine that the Penguins will lose three consecutive games on home ice given the atmosphere in that building. Expect the crowd to be rocking and the Penguins to get off to a good start. Give me the Penguins to extend this series on home ice tonight.

Flyers vs Penguins Game 4 prediction: Penguins ML (-135) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The Vegas Golden Knights and Utah Mammoth continue what has been a tight series, with Game 4 in Utah. The first ever playoff game in Utah went perfectly to plan for the Mammoth, winning 4-2 and taking the series lead. Can they secure their third consecutive game against this powerful Golden Knights team? Here is our Golden Knights vs. Mammoth prediction to find out.

An underwhelming regular season has now carried into the playoffs for what on paper is an absolutely stacked team in Vegas. We have seen lots of evidence supporting their mediocrity, but I am not willing to count them out yet. After going down 4-0 to an energetic Mammoth squad, the Golden Knights didn’t give up, outscoring Utah 2-0 and outshooting them 12-4 in a comeback effort that fell short. The Golden Knights had no shortage of shots and possession, outshooting the Mammoth 32-12, but they now need to make it count.

This should be the wakeup call this veteran and elite team needed, and I expect to see a different group on the ice. This starts with goaltender Carter Hart, who posted a .667 save percentage in Game 3. In fact, Vegas has a number of players that are in desperate need of stepping up, such as Mitch Marner, Pavel Dorofeyev, and Tomas Hertl, who have combined for just 3 assists in the series. This could be the turning point in the series for Vegas, and I see them coming out on top. Take them on the money line for our Golden Knights vs. Mammoth prediction.

Golden Knights vs Mammoth prediction: Golden Knights ML (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable to -140.

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