Andrew Wilsher

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We look to the American Conference as we wind down the final days of the season, where the East Carolina Pirates host the Tulsa Golden Hurricane on Thursday night. These teams are on opposite ends of the standings, but both still have plenty to play for. ECU is trying to get into the conference tournament, as the American only takes 10 of their 13 teams, and the Pirates currently sit 1 game out of that cut line. For Tulsa, it is about seeding. The American is one of those staggered brackets that really protects top teams, and Tulsa can still take the #2 seed. These teams have not played this season, but I expect Tulsa to pull away, even on the road. Give me the Golden Hurricane -9.5.

There is a large discrepancy between these teams, and you can see it quickly in their rankings. Tulsa ranks around 50th in the major metrics sites, while ECU is around 250. The calling card for the Golden Hurricanes is their three-point shooting, where they make threes at a top-5 rate. ECU is not great at defending those shots. Are home court and senior night enough to raise the Pirates’ level on defense? And is the road venue enough to stifle Tulsa? It shouldn’t be, and I would expect the better team to separate, sooner or later. Give me Tulsa to cover.

Tulsa vs East Carolina prediction: Tulsa Golden Hurricanes -9.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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How is Tulane taking back this many points? The Green Wave already beat the Owls by double digits earlier this season, and they have covered in the last 3 meetings overall. Temple laying this number may look a bit absurd, but it reflects what the oddsmakers see, not what the market projects. The matchup advantage for Temple starts on the defensive end. The Owls have been most effective when forcing opponents into half-court execution, limiting easy transition opportunities, and turning games into physical possession battles. That style directly challenges Tulane as they are one of the worst rebounding teams on both ends of the court. Tulane won’t be able to find second-chance points, but the Owls will. That could easily lead to separation.

There is also one other element: luck. According to KenPom, Tulane is the 4th-luckiest team in the country. That means in games settled by 6 points or loss, the bounces and variance have all gone the Green Waves’ way, which also indicates that their record is not a true metric of what they bring to the table. Had a few of said bounces gone the other way, the Green Wave would have a worser record and they would likely be taking back even more points here. In a game nonetheless projected to be competitive but controlled, Temple’s defensive consistency, physicality, and home-court advantage can make this a spot where Tulane’s luck runs out. It also makes the Owls the side to lay the points with.

Tulane vs Temple prediction: Temple Owls -4.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to -5.

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No. 3 Michigan enters this matchup with a chance to accomplish something no Big Ten team has done since 1976 – finish the season undefeated on the road. The Wolverines are a perfect 10-0 away from home this year as they prepare to face a streaky Iowa team. Michigan is coming off an impressive win over No. 10 Illinois, shooting 52.5% from the floor and outrebounding the Fighting Illini 34-30. Iowa, meanwhile, is coming off a disappointing loss to last-place Penn State, where its defense struggled badly, allowing the Nittany Lions to shoot 64.1%. If the Hawkeyes have a similar defensive issue against the Wolverines, this game could get out of hand quickly. 

The Wolverines have the best offense in the Big Ten, averaging 89 points per play in conference play. Yaxel Lendeborg leads the way with 14.3 points per game, but Michigan will need other players to step up, as they’ll be without L.J. Carson for the remainder of the season due to a knee injury. Iowa will rely heavily on Bennett Stirtz, who is averaging 20.5 points per game, but he’ll face a tough challenge against a Michigan defense that holds opponents to 68.7 points per game and just 37.8% shooting. Michigan plays at a fast pace, dominates the glass, and has far more depth than Iowa. Expect the Wolverines to control the pace after opening tip-off and have no issues running up the score in this matchup. 

Michigan vs Iowa prediction: Michigan Wolverines -9 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The Toronto Maple Leafs will take on the New York Rangers Thursday night, as the Maple Leafs are riding a 5-game losing streak into this one. Though, in their last 2 games, they played much more competitively in overtime losses to the Philadelphia Flyers and New Jersey Devils. The Maple Leafs currently rank 13^th in the Eastern Conference. The Maple Leafs also hold the worst away record in the Eastern Conference at 11-14-4. This weak record is a result of them giving up 3.43 goals per game on 31.8 shots.

For the Rangers, they have lost 8 of their last 10 overall. On the season, they rank last in the Eastern Conference. Making matters worse, they have impressively bad home form. They are 7-15-6 at home this season, giving up 94 goals while only scoring 59 goals. The Rangers scoring has been a problem all year, with them ranking 24^th with 2.62 goals per game. The Rangers also rank 27^th in shots on goal and overall shot percentage. Taking all of this in, we have a battle between 2 struggling teams. I believe that the recently improved play of the Maple Leafs and better offense give them the edge in this one. I am taking the Maple Leafs on the money line.

Maple Leafs vs Rangers prediction: Maple Leafs ML (-105) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The Boston Bruins and Nashville Predators meet on Thursday night in the NHL. In their second and final meeting this season, Nashville will look to even the series 1-1 after a 3-2 win from Boston in January. This is a key game before the Friday trade deadline for both teams, and we are here to get you set with our Bruins vs. Predators prediction.

Nashville has not looked good lately, which is further hindering their already-slim playoff chances. I see this game as a last ditch effort until management makes a solid decision on the team direction, and with a veteran-savvy roster, I don’t expect them to shrivel just yet. Ryan O’Reilly is questionable to play in this game due to an injury sustained in their last game, but in my eyes, there is no major roster mismatch here, and a maximum urgency level can go a long way for the Predators. Nashville will need to lean on their strong special teams units, as both have been hovering the top-10 success rates, as opposed to a Bruins penalty kill that ranks 25th overall (77.1%). Boston has been quite poor on the road this season with an 11-13-4 record, which could easily play a factor in this game in favor for Nashville in what should be a loud Bridgestone Arena.

This game should bring playoff-like atmosphere, and we are siding with the home team in Nashville for our Bruins vs. Predators prediction.

Bruins vs Predators prediction: Nashville Predators ML (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable to -130.

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The Tampa Bay Lightning continue their 4-game road trip on Thursday night with a trip to Winnipeg to face the Jets. The Bolts are looking to get back on track, as they’ve dropped 3 games in a row entering this contest. Despite their recent skid, they should feel good about their chances about leaving Winnipeg with a win. The Jets have been among the most disappointing teams in the NHL this season, and they entered Wednesday 9 points out of a playoff spot in the Western Conference. Goaltender Connor Hellebuyck played out of his mind leading Team USA to a Gold medal in Italy, but he has struggled back stateside. Hellebuyck is 1-0-2 with a 2.89 goals-against average and .903 save percentage following the Olympics. It doesn’t help that the offense in front of him has provided little support, which has been a common theme all season long.

Winnipeg’s 2.83 goals per game ranks 24th in the NHL, and things won’t get any easier going up against Andrei Vasilevskiy. The Tampa Bay netminder owns a stellar .914 save percentage to go along with a 2.26 goals-against average this season, and he seems to have a favorable matchup against Winnipeg’s struggling offense in this one. The Bolts have been great on the road all year long, and I’m expecting them to come out with a spirited effort and a heightened sense of urgency as they look to end their 3-game losing streak. Back the Bolts on the road.

Lightning vs Jets prediction: Tampa Bay Lightning ML (-185) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The Warriors rarely rely on stagnant possessions. Instead, their system keeps the ball moving and forces defenses to navigate multiple off-ball actions every trip down the floor. That structure tends to produce steady shot volume, even if efficiency fluctuates. Houston, on the other hand, is most comfortable when games become controlled and methodical. The Rockets thrive when they can compress possessions, dictate defensive pressure, and limit opponents’ scoring bursts. In that sense, this matchup becomes a clash of styles. While Houston’s approach can help them win games, it isn’t always conducive to laying significant points.

When an opponent is catching nearly double digits, the ability to maintain offensive flow becomes extremely valuable. Golden State’s spacing and perimeter shooting give them multiple ways to stay competitive throughout the game. Even when trailing, a few quick three-point possessions can quickly cut into a lead. There’s also the late-game dynamic to consider. If Houston builds a comfortable margin, the Rockets may naturally ease into a more relaxed pace. That scenario opens the door for Golden State’s offense to generate a late scoring push. Taking the Warriors and the points offers the stronger betting position.

Warriors vs Rockets prediction: Golden State Warriors +9.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to +9.

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Similarly to most other NBA teams, the Detroit Pistons also weren’t able to figure out the San Antonio Spurs when the two teams met some 2 weeks ago. Wemby and co. dominated the proceedings, winning by 11 points and also spending 70% of the game in the lead. Cade Cunningham was also limited to just 5-or-26 shooting. Thursday’s rematch in San Antonio will give us an idea as to if the Pistons are ready to take the next step as a team. They’ve been in decent form on the road lately, covering 6 times in 7 games. However, the Frost Bank Center has been a tough venue to win at with just 1 victory in 10 visits. The two areas in which the Pistons have the edge are in rebounding and in three-point defense.

San Antonio returns home after playing the last 5 games on the road, going 4-1 SU. The only blemish during the road trip was that ugly defeat at MSG, but they put that behind them with a dominant 131-91 win over Philadelphia the other day. Despite Wembanyama being limited to just 10 points, San Antonio showed it’s depth with 7 other players scoring in double-figures and that’s the biggest strength of this team. You just never know where the danger will come from. They also share the ball at a high level, the Philly game saw them dish out 36 assists leading to 55% shooting from the field and 40% from three.

Adjustments will be made from both teams following that 1st meeting that took place in Detroit. There’s not much that separates these two teams, but what should edge it out for San Antonio is the fact that they’re playing at home. They’ve only lost 6 of 27 games there this season, Detroit did get exposed by the Cavaliers in their last game despite not having Donovan Mitchell in that game. I’ll go with the Spurs once again here

Pistons vs Spurs prediction: San Antonio Spurs -3.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The Chicago Bulls appear to be in all-out tank mode as they prepare to visit the Phoenix Suns on Thursday night. Chicago is a ridiculous 1-12 in its last 13 games and it has won only once on the road since January 22. However, Phoenix is also playing poorly — making the proposition of giving points 11 points a scary one. As such, I’ll pivot to the game total. My Bulls vs Suns pick is Under 225.5. Chicago has been kept under the 100-point mark twice in its last 5 games, although it is also playing defense. Milwaukee, for example, managed only 97 points in their matchup on Sunday. The Bulls could be missing a lot of firepower on Thursday, too. Jalen Smith is doubtful, while Matas Buzelis and Josh Giddey are questionable. That’s 3 starters who could be on the shelf. It’s also worth noting that Jaden Ivey and Patrick Williams are out.

This contest can be expected to be played at a snail’s pace. Phoenix ranks #25 in pace of play this season (101.3 possessions per game). Over its last 3 outings this team is averaging an anemic 92.3 possessions — by far the lowest in the entire NBA. Chicago generally plays a lot faster, but the visitors should be more than happy to go at the Suns’ pace in this one given how short on bodies they might be on Thursday. Phoenix has gone 7 straight games without scoring more than 114 points. Two of its last 4 contests have produced no more than 178 points. The under is 5-0 in the Bulls’ last 5 overall and 4-0 in the Suns’ last 4. Count on those trends continuing — probably with room to spare.

Bulls vs Suns prediction: Under 225.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 222.5.

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