Andrew Wilsher

The Michigan State Spartans will travel to Madison on Friday night for a Big Ten game against the Wisconsin Badgers. Wisconsin is coming off one of the best wins in all of college basketball on Tuesday night, going on the road to beat Illinois. That is the Badgers’ second monster win, as they beat Michigan earlier this season. They improved to 9-4 in conference play with that win, but they will have another huge test when Michigan State comes to town. The Spartans are 10-3 in league play and boast one of the best defenses in the country. I view this matchup as a letdown spot for Wisconsin, so I’m backing Michigan State to cover.

The Spartans are a physical team that should be able to impose their will and wear down the Badgers through 40 minutes of basketball. Michigan State should be able to win the rebounding by wide margin. Since January 1, Michigan State’s offense is ranked #3 nationally in offensive rebounding and its defense is ranked #18, according to Bart Torvik. Wisconsin is not a good rebounding team — despite its great performance against the Illini. The Badgers are ranked just #239 in offensive rebounding percentage and will likely struggle with the physicality of the Spartans. Let’s roll with Michigan State -1.5.

Michigan State vs Wisconsin prediction: Michigan State -1.5 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable to -2.

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Friday serves up a typical thin slate of games, but among them is the undefeated Miami RedHawks as they host the Ohio Bobcats in MAC play. The story here, of course, is that the RedHawks are the last remaining unbeaten team in the country, and we are all starting to ask the question of whether they can run the table in the regular season. The MAC is certainly a soft conference, and they already beat the only real threat to them (Akron), so they have a shot. I see very little in the Ohio profile that would suggest they would be the ones to end the streak. Indeed, I don’t think Ohio can keep it close, so I am taking the RedHawks -10.

The thing with Miami is that, undefeated or not, they aren’t really all that great. The metrics sites have them checking in around 80^th nationally, which is not even the highest among MAC teams. That honor belongs to Akron, who is in the 60s. In their past 6 wins, 4 of them have been by only 2 points or in overtime, so it isn’t like they are obliterating their conference competition. Still, there is no logical reason to expect the Bobcats to end the streak, or even play close. Ohio checks in outside the top 200 nationally. They play fast but poorly, ranking outside the top 200 in both offensive and defensive efficiency. They don’t rebound well or create many turnovers, the things you would want from an upset-minded team. Plus the game is at Miami. Unless the RedHawks just crumble under the pressure of national attention for some reason, I don’t see a path here. Give me Miami -10.

Ohio vs Miami (Ohio) prediction: Miami (OH) -10 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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What speaks to us is the price — it looks rather big considering the Rebels beat the Broncos 89-85 in overtime in Las Vegas the last time they met in January. The Rebels were just +2.5 underdogs then. The fact that Boise is laying double-digits now is extremely telling, but the market is lining up to grab what appears to be a friendly amount of points. This spot has all the DNA of a “sucker bet” if one were to back the Rebels here. Let’s dive deeper.

A key angle is how Boise State performs at home versus how UNLV travels. Boise State’s offense isn’t built on volatility — it scores 79.2 points per game and wins by controlling tempo and shot quality rather than relying on streak shooting like the Rebels do. In January, UNLV ran hot but they can also run cold. This is one of their flaws. And that profile matters in revenge spots, where execution usually tightens and the team with the more stable half-court structure tends to create separation. The team with the more stable structure is undoubtedly Boise State. Its defensive profile (74.1 points allowed) suggests the Broncos can turn this into a possession game. UNLV’s defense gives up nearly 80 points per game and that stat is padded by 2 wins against a listless San Jose State within their last 8 outings, where SJSU scored 62 and 75. UNLV leaks points, make no mistake. In the other 6 contests over this 8-game sample, the Rebels gave up 78, 98, 89, 89, 82 and 76. They can easily get exposed again in a hostile environment at ExtraMile Arena, where Boise is 9-3 SU and plays with far more efficiency. This isn’t just a revenge angle — it’s also Boise’s added motivation and the environment where the game is being played. Boise needs résumé wins, knows what went wrong in the first meeting and now gets the Rebels right where it wants them. Let’slay the points with the home team in a focused bounce-back spot.

UNLV vs Boise State prediction: Boise State -10 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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