Andrew Wilsher

The anatomy of an upset. We’re going to break it down. The Badgers are a team that lead with offensive first, play with pace, and love to attack from the perimeter. When it all goes well, Wiscy can put up 100 points and look unstoppable. But if the shots don’t fall? Wisconsin can be in trouble. Particularly, when the opponent plays with pace and score like the Panthers can.

If you are filling out your bracket, High Point is worth being written down to spring the annual 5 vs. 12 upset. From a betting perspective, getting the Panthers with the points is one of the better plays you will encounter perhaps in any sport, this week. We don’t even need High Point to win to cash this ticket, but they can win. That’s the whole point. Wisconsin is tagged by many to be a dark horse in the West region. Analysts love the prospect of an Arkansas-Wisconsin smokeshow in the Round 32. The problem is that horse may never get out of the gate. But because High Point has gone to March Madness two years in a row and hasn’t won a game yet in school history, it seems unfathomable for such events to unfold. That’s how brackets are broken and how winning plays are uncovered. A Panthers victory would be inconceivable to many but the set-up is there, and all we need is the Panthers to compete in a game that I believe they will win outright.

High Point vs Wisconsin prediction: High Point +10 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

One of the more intriguing first round matchups on Thursday features the VCU Rams vs the North Carolina Tar Heels. The Rams rolled through the A-10 tournament, and they ended the season on a 6-game winning streak. The Tar Heels come into the tournament vulnerable, with star freshman Caleb Wilson out for the year. If you are shopping for an upset for your bracket, this would be a good spot to look. For bettors, there is still value here too, and I look for VCU to keep this game close at +2.5.

The Heels obviously still have lots of talent without Wilson, no doubt about that. Seth Trimble especially will step up and carry the load. But there is more here. In particular, this is a dangerous matchup for Carolina. VCU is an elite 3-point shooting team, and when they aren’t shooting threes, they are good at getting themselves to the foul line. While UNC does not foul a lot, they do struggle to defend the arc. If there is one tried and true formula for a first round upset, that is it—the ability for underdogs to make 3s. It is also worth noting that VCU beat Virginia Tech by 18 and nearly upended NC State, so they can go toe to toe with ACC squads. And those games were in November; the Rams have only improved since then. I like VCU in this spot.

VCU vs North Carolina prediction: VCU +2.5 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

The Idaho Vandals and the Houston Cougars will face off on Thursday for round one of the NCAA Tournament. This game is a late tip off in Oklahoma City following the Saint Mary’s and Texas A&M game. I do not expect this one to be a very close one as Houston should be able to handle Idaho with not many issues. The Vandals finished the regular season just 17-14 but went on a four-game winning streak to win the Big Sky Conference Tournament. The Big Sky has not fared well in the big dance as they are just 3-10-1 against the spread since 2010. I expect Houston to add to that bad record and cover the spread here.

Houston -23.5 is my best bet of the game because I do not see Idaho having any success against Houston’s high-level defense. The Cougars have an elite defense every year under Kelvin Sampson, and this year is no different. According to KenPom, Houston’s defense is ranked #5 nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency, #17 in effective field goal percentage and #10 in two-point percentage. The Vandals offense is ranked just #176 in adjusted offensive efficiency, so I expect them to struggle to score. They shoot a bunch of threes but only shoot 34.5 percentage from beyond the arc and will likely not be able to score much inside here. Take Houston to cover.

Idaho vs Houston prediction: Houston -23.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to -25.

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Teams that score and play with tempo, they are fun to watch. They also get alot of love from the betting market. That’s Prairie View A&M in this situation. The Panthers also have been on a sick heater against the spread. 10 straight covers and an incredulous march through the SWAC to land PVAM in the First Four. Where were the Panthers two weeks ago? Sitting at 11-17 staring down the barrel of a bottom-tier seed in the conference tournament before they did the unthinkable.

That narrative will curry alot of market favor. The market is investing in the story as much as the allure of a fast-paced offensive team that can run it up and down the floor. But this isn’t the SWAC, this is the Big Dance and tempo teams don’t exactly fare well. Enter Lehigh. The Mountain Hawks quietly orchestrated their own uncanny run to the First Four on the heels of solid defense that carried them through the Patriot League Tournament. Unlike the Panthers, the Hawks play slow and let the game come to them. This is exactly the sort of side that A&M doesn’t want to see in a play-in game to make the main bracket. But here we are. The Mountain Hawks will turn this into a grind and a knuckle-dragging rock fight that will throw the Panthers out of rhythm. This is the perfect spot to back Lehigh. Lay the points.

Prairie View A&M vs Lehigh prediction: Lehigh -2.5 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable to -3.

Miami Ohio couldn’t have asked for a better regular season, finishing a perfect 31-0 while leading the MAC in scoring. However, that momentum came to a halt after a quarterfinal exit against UMass in the MAC Tournament. Now, the RedHawks will look to put that behind them and prove their undefeated regular season wasn’t a fluke as they prepare to face SMU in the First Four matchup. The Mustangs didn’t close out the season the way they had hoped, dropping five of their last six games, which includes an opening round loss in the ACC Tournament to Louisville where they lost 62-58. The Cardinals also struggled away from home, going just 5-10 on the road and at neutral sites this season. That said, both teams bring high-powered offenses into this matchup. Miami Ohio averaged 90.7 points per game in conference play, while SMU put up 84.2 in the ACC. 

Miami Ohio does a great job moving the ball and creating open looks, but the level of competition is a concern, as they didn’t face a Quad 1 opponent this season. SMU also plays at a fast pace and can score in bunches, while also bringing a physical presence inside. That interior strength could be a major factor in this matchup, especially after Miami Ohio was dominated in the paint by UMass (54-30) and outrebounded 41-24 in their tournament loss. Even with SMU’s advantage inside, their struggles away from home and their defensive issues can’t be ignored. With Dayton just about an hour from Miami Ohio’s campus, the RedHawks should have plenty of fan support in this matchup. This game sets up to be a fast-paced, high-scoring battle, with SMU looking to control the paint. However, I expect the RedHawks to generate open looks from the perimeter and knock down shots from deep, which should allow them to keep this game close. 

Miami Ohio vs SMU prediction: Miami Ohio +7 (-120) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

The First Four can have as much drama as the Final Four, and the price in this contest reflects that. Let’s start with how both teams arrived here: via a heater. The Retrievers have won 12 straight dating back to January, when they lost against Vermont. Howard has rattled off 8 wins in its own right. The question begs: which team’s stock is higher? That would be UMBC.

Fabled for being the only team ever to orchestrate a 16-vs-1 upset in the first round, the trivia point is something that begets familiarity to the betting market in a spot like this one. The Retrievers have pedigree. Howard? It has been to the Big Dance 5 times but has never won a game. Based on these talking points alone, who do you think the market likes? UMBC, of course.

However, this is a quality opportunity for the Bison to get out of the First Four and win their first-ever tournament game. Both these teams have balance on both sides of the ball, but what is key in a game that is prognosticated to be settled by a basket is how each side handles key possessions. Edge: Howard. The Bison commit fewer turnovers and move the ball better overall — and as luck would have it, they are among the best in the country in creating turnovers and minimizing assists. In clutch time, that metric is big where every possession counts. Book the Bison.

UMBC vs Howard prediction: Howard ML (+120) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

The Texas Longhorns will take on the NC State Wolfpack in a First Four matchup on Tuesday night. It’s somewhat surprising to see Texas in the NCAA Tournament after dropping 5 of its las 6 games, but that’s neither here nor there. NC State hasn’t fared much better, also losing 5 of its last 6 — so both teams enter this matchup looking to regain momentum. Both teams have plenty of talent, but only one will be moving on to take on the #6 seed BYU in the first round.  

For Texas, the key will be establishing a physical presence inside — crashing the boards and forcing NC State into tough, physical possessions. This Texas team is bigger, stronger and has a significant rebounding advantage heading into this matchup with Dailyn Swain (7.6 rpg) and Matas Vokietaitis (6.8 rpg). NC State will lean on Ven-Allen Lubin to anchor its rebounding effort, but Texas physicality inside should limit second-chance opportunities for the Wolfpack. Offensively, both teams were nearly identical — with Texas averaging 83.8 points per game and NC State close behind at 83.7. Defensively, the Longhorns struggled this season — allowing 76.8 ppg. However, the Wolfpack haven’t been much better — giving up 76.5. This game will likely come down to which team can dominate inside, and that’s where Texas has the clear advantage. With their ability to control the boards and shut down the driving lanes, the Longhorns should be able to take control of this matchup as the game goes on. Texas is also shooting 75.2% from the free-throw line, so if it establishes a physical presence in the paint, expect UT to get to the line and create separation late in the game. 

Texas vs NC State prediction: Texas -1 (-109) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

The Hurricanes and Blue Jackets meet for the first of 3 matchups over the next 2 weeks, which is unfortunate for a Columbus team that is chasing a playoff spot. The Hurricanes won the first meeting 4-1 and are currently first in the Eastern Conference. The Blue Jackets have recorded points in 9 consecutive games, albeit with 4 of those coming in overtime losses. While they have been rolling under new head coach Rick Bowness, there’s reason to believe their luck is starting to change.

The Blue Jackets’ offense leaves something to be desired, and they are starting to fizzle out over the last 2 games — with just a single goal in regulation time in both. The Hurricanes and Brandon Bussi went through a rough defensive stretch but rebounded over the past two games, allowing just 2 goals in each. It could be a close contest, but the Hurricanes are primed to prove that the Blue Jackets still have some growing to do before competing with the Metropolitan Division’s best. The Hurricanes haven’t been in their best form lately, alternating wins and losses over the past 7 games. It’s time for them to put together a winning streak as the playoffs approach.

Hurricanes vs Blue Jackets prediction: Carolina ML (-135) available at time of publishing. Playable at that price.

The Minnesota Wild will be looking to put an end to their 3-game losing streak as they travel to Chicago to take on the Blackhawks. The Wild all but have third place in the Central Division locked up, so the remainder of their regular-season games do not mean too much. However, they will be looking to play some good hockey and get all of the bad habits out of their game as they gear up for a playoff run. They should have no issues beating teams like the Blackhawks when they are playing their best hockey. The Wild’s coaching staff must be getting frustrated with their play recently, and I am expecting an inspired and dominant performance from them on Tuesday.

They are going up against a Blackhawks team that is one of the worst offensive teams in the league. Chicago is only averaging 2.61 goals per game, which is fifth worst in the NHL. The Wild are very solid defensively, averaging only 2.81 goals against per game. These 2 factors are a recipe for success for the Wild. Give me Minnesota in this one.

Wild vs Blackhawks prediction: Wild ML (-180) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

The Tampa Bay Lightning make the first stop on a 4-game road trip against the Seattle Kraken on Tuesday night at Climate Pledge Arena. The Lightning are pursuing the Buffalo Sabres, 4 points back in the Atlantic Division — although Tampa Bay has 2 games in hand. The Lightning have been scuffling a bit, going 1-3-0 in the past 4 and 2-7-0 across the past 9 outings. The Sabres are 9-1-0 in the past 10 games. It’s not too late for Tampa Bat, but it needs to get going. That could happen in a potentially high-scoring game against the Kraken, who have struggled to stop the puck lately.

Tampa Bay has averaged 4.0 goals per game in the past 5 while allowing 4.0 gpg in the same span. The Over is 3-1-1 in the past 5 games and 8-2-3 in the past 13 outings. Seattle has won back-to-back games, averaging 5.5 gpg in the 2 wins over the Florida Panthers and Vancouver Canucks. The Over is 3-1-1 in the past 5 games for the Kraken, with Seattle averaging 3.4 gpg in the past 8 outings while allowing 4.0 gpg in the past 5. Let’s go Over on the total and feel rather confident in doing so.

Lightning vs Kraken prediction: Over 6 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable to -130.