Andrew Wilsher

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The St. John’s Red Storm and Duke Blue Devils meet in the Sweet 16 of the NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament, setting up a compelling clash between experience and elite talent. St. John’s enters at 30-6, riding momentum after a dramatic win over the Kansas Jayhawks to reach this stage, and they’ve now won 21 of their last 22 games. The Red Storm average 81.1 points per game while allowing 69.4, with their defensive identity driving success. They generate over 7.8 steals per game and rank among the stronger teams nationally in turnover margin, consistently creating extra possessions. Forward Zuby Ejiofor leads the team with 16.3 points and 7.2 rebounds per game, anchoring a physical frontcourt that can disrupt opposing offenses. Perhaps the biggest factor is head coach Rick Pitino, who owns a remarkable 12-1 record in Sweet 16 games, highlighting his ability to prepare teams for this stage and maximize execution in high pressure tournament settings.

Duke enters at 34-2 and has been one of the most efficient teams in the country on both ends, averaging 81.9 points per game while allowing just 63.1, one of the best defensive marks nationally. The Blue Devils shoot 49% from the field and dominate the glass with 40.4 rebounds per game, led by freshman standout Cameron Boozer, who averages 22.5 points and 10.2 rebounds. Duke’s ability to control the boards—particularly on the offensive glass—creates consistent second chance opportunities and puts pressure on opposing defenses. While Duke’s talent and efficiency make them the rightful favorite, this matchup presents a tougher test than the spread suggests. St. John’s defensive pressure, ability to force turnovers, and experienced leadership give them a strong foundation to compete throughout the full 40 minutes. If the Red Storm can limit second-chance points and control tempo, they have the tools to keep this game close deep into the second half despite Duke’s firepower.

St. John’s vs Duke Prediction: St. John’s +6.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to +5.5.

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This isn’t the Rose Bowl, but this is a game tailor made for the Wolverines in the Sweet 16. The Tide live and die by their offense and shooting the three. Michigan however, can beat you in more ways than one. The Maize and Blue can play with pace, they score in the interior, they have perimeter capacity, and they can slow it down and defend well. The Wolverines have all the makings of a national champion, they are efficient, physical, and downhill. That’s bad news for Alabama who has only one trick up its sleeve.

The Tide rolled past Hofstra and a tired Texas Tech, but this is an entirely different assignment. The Wolverines can slow Bama down, they can minimize their three-point operations to less attempts and less success, and they can take advantage of Alabama’s vulnerabilites to defend. Not only is this a contest where Michigan should win it, they can do so emphatically. It’s alluring to back the hot offensive team with points, such a wager is one that is a commodity come tourney time, but it’s nothing to hang a hat on. Against a balanced and disruptive entity like the Wolverines, Alabama can hit a wall and be run over at the same time. Michigan moves onto the Elite Eight with style.

Alabama vs Michigan prediction: Michigan -10 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable to the number.

With 13 wins in 14 games, the Hawks boast the best record in the NBA along with the OKC Thunder during this stretch. They lead the league with 120.9 points scored per 100 possessions and are also the best defense, allowing 105.3 points. Only OKC has a better net rating, and the Hawks are beating opponents by 15.6 points during this surge. Now, some people might say most of the wins came against losing or tanking teams — even if that is the case, I think we still need to give credit to Atlanta for the turnaround. Building good habits is never easy, especially when we get past the 60-game mark of the season. Wednesday’s game against the Pistons will tell us whether or not this team is for real.

We are still waiting on the fall off of the Pistons to begin without superstar Cade Cunningham. The team has responded in a big way since he went down with a collapsed lung. The Pistons have won 4 straight games, including an impressive clutch win over the Lakers in their last game. Daniss Jenkins emerged as the hero with 30 points, and the Pistons did a fantastic job holding the Lakers to just 28% shooting from 3. And that’s been their calling card basically this entire season. Teams are connecting on just 34.8% of 3-point shots against them, and only 3 teams in the league are better in this area.

Even though the Pistons lead the regular-season series 3-0, I still have faith in these Hawks. I’ve been impressed with how Jalen Johnson has played; the partnership formed between him and Nickeil Alexander-Walker is on a different level. If Atlanta gets a productive game from Jonathan Kuminga, I think it can even pull off the upset. Let’s back the road underdog.

Hawks vs Pistons prediction: Atlanta +2.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

The Houston Rockets (43-28) and Minnesota Timberwolves (44-28) will engage in an absolutely crucial contest for Western Conference playoff positioning when they collide on Wednesday night in Minnesota. Both teams are in a 3-way battle with Denver for the fourth, fifth and sixth spots, and even the #3 seed is in play. As the standings and the records suggest, this is pretty much an even matchup — and the odds are reflective of that. Home-court advantage could make the difference, so my Rockets vs Timberwolves pick is for Minnesota to win outright.

Anthony Edwards (knee) will miss his fifth consecutive contest for the T-Wolves. The good news is that they are staying afloat without him, boasting a 3-1 record in their last 4 games. This stretch includes a 10-point win over Boston this past Sunday. Ayo Dosunmu (14.5 ppg) has been picking up the slack in a big way. He has scored at least 18 points in 5 straight outings and is averaging 9.0 rebounds and 7.3 assists over the past 3 contests. Meanwhile, Houston is just 18-18 on the road in 2025-26 compared to 25-10 at home. Let’s roll with the ‘Wolves and not bother with the +1.5 spread.

Rockets vs Timberwolves prediction: Minnesota ML (+102) available at time of publishing. Playable to -105.

After splitting their last 4 games, the Raptors conclude their 5-game road trip with a Wednesday night affair at the Intuit Dome — facing a familiar face in Kawhi Leonard and the Clippers. The 2 wins of the trip came against the Bulls and Jazz, while the 2 losses were against the Nuggets and Suns. I think we can all agree that the level at which the Clippers play is a lot closer to that of the Nuggets and Suns, so the Raptors could face an uphill battle. They could once again be without starting center Jakob Poeltl; not having him on the inside would leave a massive void for the Clippers’ players to exploit. The defense is a big concern right now if you’re a Raptors fan — they have allowed 120+ in 3 consecutive games, including against the tanking Utah Jazz.

The Clippers are starting to come to life with back-to-back wins over the Mavericks and Bucks. Darius Garland’s numbers have been impressive over the past 8 games; he is averaging 23 points on over 50% from the field, while from 3-point land he is at over 53% efficiency. The win against the Bucks was a blowout, with no starter playing more than 24 minutes, so the Clippers should be fresh to take on this Raptors team. LA won the first meeting in Canada back in mid-January behind a massive night from James Harden. With the Beard no longer on the team, the Clippers will have to turn to other options to lead them. Unlike in the first meeting, Kawhi is healthy for this one and Garland is in great form.

There could be some tired legs on the Raptors’ roster. I’m sure they cannot wait to get back home after spending the last week or so on the West Coast. LA didn’t exert a lot of energy in the blowout win over the Bucks, plus it is 6-1 SU in the last 7 meetings with the Raptors and comes into this one having won 7 of 9 overall. I’ll take the Clips.

Raptors vs Clippers prediction: Los Angeles -4 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to -6.

It wasn’t easy for either team to advance to the Sweet 16, but now the #9 seed Iowa Hawkeyes and the #4 seed Nebraska Cornhuskers are set to face off — with the winner advancing to the Elite Eight. Iowa pulled off a huge upset over the #1 seed Florida Gators in a thrilling matchup. Alvaro Folgueiras knocked down a 3-pointer with 4 seconds left to give the Hawkeyes a 73-72 lead that ultimately sealed the deal. Iowa shot 51% from the floor and did a great job limiting Florida on the glass, which played a key role in the upset. As for Nebraska, it held on against Vanderbilt — with Braden Frager converting a layup with just 2 seconds remaining to secure a 74-72 victory.

The Hawkeyes will need Bennett Stirtz to figure things out in this matchup against Nebraska. Stirtz struggled against Florida, scoring just 13 points while going 0-for-9 from 3 and 5-of-16 from the field. These are 2 Big Ten opponents that are familiar with one another. During the regular season, Iowa defeated Nebraska 57-52 on February 17; Nebraska got revenge on March 8 with an 84-75 overtime win. Both teams rank among the best defensively in their conference, with Nebraska allowing 65.8 points per game and Iowa close behind at 66. The Cornhuskers do hold a slight rebounding edge (37 to 32), but Iowa has been more efficient offensively — shooting 48.9% from the field compared to Nebraska’s 46.6%. This game could go either way, but based on recent form, Iowa looks like the more complete team. The Hawkeyes showed resilience and composure in their win over Florida and are peaking at the right time. Give me Iowa to win a close one and punch its ticket to the Elite Eight.  

Iowa vs Nebraska prediction: Iowa ML (+105) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

The West Region features the #1 Arizona Wildcats vs the #4 Arkansas Razorbacks. Arizona pulled away from Utah State to get here, while Arkansas had to battle the whole way to put away a feisty High Point squad. This line originally opened at -9.5, and that would be the largest tournament deficit John Calipari has ever faced. Since then, it has pushed back down to -7.5 — and that is taking us into hammer territory. I think Vegas had this right in the first place — and this is a spot where we can bet a #1 seed while fading the public, which is backing the Hogs at a 70% clip at the time of this writing. Give me Arizona.

Arkansas plays super fast and has one of the best guards in the country in Darius Acuff Jr. What people fail to recognize with Arizona, however, is that it boasts a top-3 defense according to both KenPom and Torvik. The Hogs will still score, but the Arizona defense is a championship-level difference-maker. Arkansas attacks the rim a ton, but Arizona ranks #2 in the country at defending the rim. That’s a matchup problem for Arkansas. The Wildcats make very few mistakes and they have talent in waves. Eventually, I suspect it will overwhelm Arkansas. I am hammering this at -7.5 and playing it out to the original line of -9.5.

Arkansas vs Arizona prediction: Arizona -7.5 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable to -9.5.