Andrew Wilsher

The Saint Louis Billikens suffered their second loss of the season on Tuesday when they fell short at Rhode Island 81-76. It was one of their worst offensive performances of the year, scoring just 1.02 points per possession while shooting less than 50% inside the arc and turning the ball over 18 times. Meanwhile, the Rams made 12-of-29 threes and 23-of-27 free-throws in the win. 

SLU will go from one Ram to another on Friday when it returns home to host a revenge-minded VCU team that it beat by 9 in Richmond earlier this year despite a bad offensive showing. The Bills scored only 0.92 points per possession in that one, which grades as their worst offensive performance of the year. That being said, it was in line with their best defensive showing of the year, as the Rams were held to 0.81 points per possession at home — shooting just 31% from two-point range and 25% from beyond the arc. 

VCU has played well on the road this year, but it’s hard to trust the Rams in this spot after they let the Bills escape from Richmond with a 9-point win despite such a horrendous offensive outing. Now, the Rams head to Chaifetz Arena, where SLU is a completely different beast. At 15-0, they are perfect in their building, while boasting the most efficient home offense and 6th-most efficient home defense in the country. That success includes 63% shooting from two-point range and over 42% from beyond the arc, while holding opponents to 43% and 27.8%, respectively. Playing at home against conference opponents, their efficiency numbers are even better, and the betting results reflect that – as the Billikens are 11-4 ATS at home with a +6.1 cover margin. With SLU off a loss and a poor offensive showing in the first meeting, combined with VCU being in the midst of the nation’s eighth-longest active win streak, this line offers a bit of a buy-low spot. I’m going to take the bait given SLU’s dominance at home. For what it’s worth, VCU is 0-4 in Quad 1 games and 1-2 ATS as an underdog.

VCU vs Saint Louis prediction: Billikens -7.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to -8.5. 

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A breaking down of X’s and O’s isn’t required here. This is about the emotional intangibles in play. The Hoosiers and the Boilermakers don’t like each other. Their rivalry speaks for itself. However, Purdue is thinking about snagging a top-2 seed in March Madness and trying to somehow stop Michigan from winning the Big Ten. None of that actually affects what happens on the court here and now, but the point is that the market will invest in those notions and overlook the Hoosiers. That makes IU an afterthought, which also means it is likely taking back an inflated number.

Pricing a side in a contest like this one is not solely about who is better. It’s about who is in demand. The Boilermakers are highly in demand in this spot and thus they are overvalued. Are we calling for an upset ouright? No. But given the nature of the rivalry, Indiana can approach this game like its National Championship. This is an opportunity for the Hoosiers to go to West Lafayette and give their arch nemesis some static. Thus, motivation will be at a premium and Indiana is taking back an enhanced number. That’s where the value lies. Rivalry games often defy logic, statistics and narratives. They are one of the treasures of collegiate athletics for that very reason because the unthinkable often occurs. Once again, we don’t need the Hoosiers to win — we just need them to show up. If IU does that, the things it does well (playing stout defense, holding opponents to 41% from the field, and facilitating ball movement efficiently) will keep it in position to be competitive. We have more than enough points in our back pocket should they do that.

Indiana vs Purdue prediction: Indiana +11 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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These 2 teams played yesterday and the Wizards won by 7 points. The oddsmakers, however, has not budged. Indiana is priced in the same range that it was yesterday. That’s the most telling clue. Back-to-backs are never easy to navigate, because to the victor of game one goes the spoils, while the vanquished makes adjustments. Indiana is the team that has go back to the drawing board, but seldom does the second leg play out exactly like the first leg. The line is basically saying that.

However, the market is zig-zagging. Yesterday, the Wizards had no appeal as underdogs even though Indiana was 5-22 SU on the road (now 5-23). Today the market is coming back the other way with Washington. That’s the easy thing to do; that’s the knee-jerk reaction. Yesterday the Wizards were the play, and now today the market is fading the Pacers for the reasons that were mentioned in the first game of the back-to-back. Indiana is a shaky road team; expecting the Pacers to dictate terms is ludicrous. Washington is built different. That’s all paraphrasing for what you will hear in many analyses, but the point is that if you read our analysis yesterday as we backed the Wizards, that’s what we wrote. Now it’s being said a game later, after the fact, with the rest of the market harboring those sentiments. What this has turned into is an age-old case of betting a team a game too late. The time to back Washington was yesterday when they were off the radar, not today when they have already made noise. The fact that Indiana is installed at the same price as it was yesterday is the oddsmakers daring everyone to take Washington. We’re not going to bite. The Pacers find a way to win the rematch and all they need to do is win by 1 perimeter shot to cover.

Pacers vs Wizards prediction: Indiana -2 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The Cleveland Cavaliers hit the road to battle the Charlotte Hornets on Friday at Spectrum Center. The Cavs just mopped up against the Brooklyn Nets at Rocket Arena at home on Thursday, winning 112-84 as -16 favorites as the under (229.5) easily cashed. For the Hornets, they were on the short end of a 105-101 loss at home against the Houston Rockets — who cooled off Charlotte a bit. The Hornets entered 10-1 in the previous 11 games, but the all-star break also might have come at an inopportune time. The under cashed in Charlotte’s loss to Houston, and it has hit in 3 straight.

The Hornets have scored 111 or fewer points in 6 of the past 7 games, and it’s no surprise that the under is 6-1 in that span. The total has stayed low in 11 of the past 14 games, too, including a 94-87 home loss to the Cavs on Jan. 21 in Charlotte in the most recent meeting. Cleveland has cashed low at a 3-2 clip in the past 5 games and 6-4 in the past 10 outings. The Cavs have allowed 118 or fewer points in 3 straight and 10 of the past 12 contests. The under is 4-4 on no rest for Cleveland this season, while the Under is 9-2 in 11 games this season when playing the second game of a back-to-back for Charlotte.

Cavaliers vs Hornets prediction: Under 233 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 231.

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Not much has changed for the Brooklyn Nets following the all-star break. In their first game since the weeklong layoff, they got destroyed by the Cleveland Cavaliers 112-84. In their second game since the break, they head to Oklahoma City for a date with the Thunder as +17.5 underdogs. With just 4 wins in 20 games, it’s really hard to expect them getting anything out of this game — especially since we know they have won just twice in 9 visits to OKC. It is a real struggle to find any positives for this team right now; it is among those select few teams that are blatantly tanking, hoping to get a high pick in this year’s NBA draft.

One the other side we have the defending champs, who went into the break following a nasty 110-93 loss to the Milwaukee Bucks at home. Injuries have derailed them a bit with leading scorer and MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander out, joined by Ajax Mitchell and Jalen Williams. All 3 of them are expected to sit this game, as well, so it will be interesting to see how the Thunder cope. They have not been as reliable in home games as of late, covering just once in 6 games, while against Eastern Conference opponents they’re just 3-7 ATS in 10 outings. What should give them optimism here is the fact that they’ve beaten the Nets 7 times in 9 home games coming into Friday’s game.

The only question we have to ask ourselves is if we trust the shorthanded Thunder, who are without their 2 best players. Brooklyn is playing without any pressure whatsoever — giving its younger players an opportunity to showcase their talent. The massive spread does make me a tad nervous, I must admit. As bad as the Nets have been lately, they are still capable of keeping games somewhat close. The Thunder might need a game or two to get into rhythm following the break, so I will give the Nets a chance and back them plus the massive spread.

Nets vs Thunder prediction: Brooklyn +17.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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