Andrew Wilsher
Managing EditorAndrew's Parlays
This series will be shifting back to Pittsburgh for Game 5 as the Penguins won Game 4 in Philadelphia, avoiding the sweep at the hands of the Flyers. It will be another do or die situation on Monday for the Penguins. Sidney Crosby scored his first goal of the Series in Game 4 and he was dominant in that game. If they are going to pull of a comeback and win this series, it will be on his back. If the Penguins can avoid getting sucked into rough stuff after the whistle and focus on playing 5 on 5 hockey, I like their chances to continue this series. If they can win one more game, the seed of doubt begins to be planted in the minds of the Flyers. The Penguins have 4 future first-ballot hall of famers on their team; they will not be bowing out easily.
It is difficult to imagine that the Penguins will lose three consecutive games on home ice given the atmosphere in that building. Expect the crowd to be rocking and the Penguins to get off to a good start. Give me the Penguins to extend this series on home ice tonight.
Flyers vs Penguins Game 4 prediction: Penguins ML (-135) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.
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The Vegas Golden Knights and Utah Mammoth continue what has been a tight series, with Game 4 in Utah. The first ever playoff game in Utah went perfectly to plan for the Mammoth, winning 4-2 and taking the series lead. Can they secure their third consecutive game against this powerful Golden Knights team? Here is our Golden Knights vs. Mammoth prediction to find out.
An underwhelming regular season has now carried into the playoffs for what on paper is an absolutely stacked team in Vegas. We have seen lots of evidence supporting their mediocrity, but I am not willing to count them out yet. After going down 4-0 to an energetic Mammoth squad, the Golden Knights didn’t give up, outscoring Utah 2-0 and outshooting them 12-4 in a comeback effort that fell short. The Golden Knights had no shortage of shots and possession, outshooting the Mammoth 32-12, but they now need to make it count.
This should be the wakeup call this veteran and elite team needed, and I expect to see a different group on the ice. This starts with goaltender Carter Hart, who posted a .667 save percentage in Game 3. In fact, Vegas has a number of players that are in desperate need of stepping up, such as Mitch Marner, Pavel Dorofeyev, and Tomas Hertl, who have combined for just 3 assists in the series. This could be the turning point in the series for Vegas, and I see them coming out on top. Take them on the money line for our Golden Knights vs. Mammoth prediction.
Golden Knights vs Mammoth prediction: Golden Knights ML (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable to -140.
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The Tampa Bay Rays and Cleveland Guardians begin a series on Monday. The Rays are running hot right now, winners of 4 in a row. The Guardians, on the other hand, have hit a cold spot, dropping their last two series to the Blue Jays and Astros. The struggle for the Guardians has mostly been on offense, and that is bad news when the Rays come to town, as they always seem to have the right pitching plan in place. Yet the Rays are the underdog in this game. That doesn’t add up to me, so I am taking Tampa in this one.
The pitching matchup is Steven Matz vs Parker Messick. Both are lefties. Matz, as we all know, is prone to big blow-up games, but facing a light-hitting Cleveland squad should mitigate that some. Messick, a rookie, doesn’t tend to throw deep into games, and he has given up some damage the last couple times out. The Rays are going to put the ball in play, run a lot, and put pressure on the defense. As long as Matz doesn’t have a meltdown, this game should favor the Rays. I’ll take my chances there.
Rays vs Guardians prediction: Rays ML (+125) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.
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The New York Yankees continue their road trip as they head to Arlington, Texas, to take on the Rangers. New York is coming off a series win over Houston, scoring 24 runs over its last 3 games. Texas, meanwhile, will look to bounce back after a series loss to the Athletics in which it managed just 6 total runs over 3 games. Taking the mound for the Yankees will be Max Fried who enters with a 3-1 record and a 2.40 ERA. For the Rangers, they’ll counter with Jack Leiter with a 1-1 record and a 4.97 ERA.
Giancarlo Stanton has missed the last two games with right calf tightness and will be monitored throughout the day to determine whether he’ll make the trip from Houston. Even if Stanton is unavailable, the Yankees lineup has continued to produce. New York is averaging 6 runs per game over its last 6 games. Jose Caballero has been swinging a hot bat, hitting .391 during that stretch, while Jazz Chisholm is batting .375 and helping deepen the lineup behind Aaron Judge. Texas, on the other hand, has struggled offensively as of late, averaging just 3.5 runs per game over its last six games. The Rangers also have issues against left-handed pitching, batting just .207 versus southpaws this season. While New York should get to Leiter early, the Yankees will need a slight cushion before facing a Rangers bullpen that owns a league-best 2.86 ERA. At the end of the day, I trust the Yankees more in this matchup. With the better starting pitcher, stronger lineup, and Texas struggling against lefties, look for the Yankees to bounce back from Sunday’s loss.
Yankees vs Rangers prediction: Yankees -1.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.
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The Chicago Cubs take I-5 south from Los Angeles to San Diego to open a 3-game set with the Padres at Petco Park. The Cubs roll out LHP Matthew Boyd, who is 1-1 with a 5.79 ERA in 3 starts, and this will be his first road start of the season. The Padres are 5-2 against left-handed starting pitchers so far this season, so it’s a hard landing spot for the southpaw Boyd to make his first outing away from the Friendly Confines.
The Cubs had their 10-game winning streak come to a close Saturday, as the Dodgers crushed them 12-4, and they followed that up with a 6-0 loss to L.A., as LHP Shota Imanaga was no match for the Dodgers lineup. And, just like that, Chicago pitching has allowed at least 4 runs in as many games, giving up an average of 7.3 runs per game, with the Over going 5-1 in the past 6 games for the Cubs, in case you’re looking for a same-game parlay opportunity. The Padres split a pair of games in Mexico City, and they’ll be glad to be back at sea level after playing three games in Denver prior to that. Let’s go with the Padres to keep up the good work at the plate, taking care of Boyd and the Cubs.
Cubs vs Padres prediction: Padres ML (-105) available at time of publishing. Playable to -120.
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Just like in the Knicks vs Hawks series, the higher-seeded team lost Game 3 to fall into a 2-1 hole only to be favored by more in Game 4 than it was in its previous loss. The oddsmakers are just begging you to take the underdogs at an inflated price. Hopefully you didn’t fall for it in the Hawks’ case, as they got blown out as +2.5 underdogs by the visiting Knicks. And you shouldn’t fall for it in the Magic’s case, either, as they are the far inferior team despite currently holding the upper hand in this best-of-7 showdown. I’m rolling with the favorites to restore order to the proceedings, so my Pistons vs Magic pick is Detroit -2.5.
It’s hard to see Orlando shooting 11 percentage points better than Detroit from 3-point range like it did on Saturday. Similarly, the Magic — even at home — probably won’t attempt 9 more free-throws than the Pistons. Detroit is by no means an elite 3-point shooting team, but it is far better from downtown than its 30.0 percent effort from downtown so far in this series. The Pistons also attempted the third-most free-throws in the NBA during the regular season, so count on them matching the Magic’s aggressiveness on Monday. There is also no reason to think that Jalen Duren will remain in this slumber (9.0 ppg, 8.3 rpg in this series) for long. This is a guy who averaged 19.5 ppg and 10.5 rpg during the regular season. In 4 meetings with Orlando, Duren averaged 17.8 ppg and 11.0 rpg — so it’s not like this is some kind of matchup issue for Detroit’s star big man. Give me the visitors in Game 4.
Pistons vs Magic Game 4 prediction: Detroit -2.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.
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Other than the Los Angeles Lakers, the Oklahoma City Thunder are the most consistent team in these playoffs. But unlike the Lakers, we expected this from the defending champs. They are yet to encounter any hiccups over the first three games, pushing the Suns to the brink of elimination winning by double-digits every single time. Even the injury to Jalen Williams didn’t disrupt any chemistry, SGA took it upon himself to lead the way with 42 points on a spectacular 15-for-18 from the field. Through the first 3 games the Thunder have committed just 23 turnovers total, if they continue taking care of the basketball like that in Game 4 this series will be over.
I genuinely believed Game 3 was the Suns’ best chance of getting a win in this series. But even a 33-point effort from Dillon Brooks, combined with 26 and 6 assists from Jalen Green wasn’t enough. Devin Booker has left a lot to be desired in these first 3 games, most of his averages are down compared to the regular season as well as his efficiency. OKC has found ways to shut down the Suns’ best player, but with their season on the line I think it’s finally time Booker wakes up a bit. For a shoot first player who is a leader of his team on offense, averaging 15.7 shots per game is far too little in my opinion. Phoenix opened as an 11.5-point underdog here, they’ve covered just 3 times in 12 games entering Game 4.
Getting swept is not something you want to have on your resume if you’re Devin Booker and company, so pride has to kick in at some point for these Suns. They put in a valiant effort in Game 3, only to lose by 12 points. I don’t believe they’ll surrender without a proper fight here. OKC probably advances, but they win by single digits.
Thunder vs Suns prediction: Suns +10.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.
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The Minnesota Timberwolves head into Game 5 with a 3-1 series lead over the Denver Nuggets, but the momentum of the series shifted dramatically after Game 4. Minnesota secured a 112-96 win behind a dominant second half, capitalizing on strong defensive stretches and balanced scoring to take control. Despite solid performances from Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray, Denver struggled to match Minnesota’s energy and execution late. However, the Timberwolves’ win came at a major cost, as Anthony Edwards exited with a knee injury and is expected to miss Game 5, removing their primary offensive engine and late game shot creator. It doesn’t get any better because sharpshooter Donte Divincenzo suffered an achilles tear as well.
That absences fundamentally reshapes this matchup as the series returns to Denver, where the Nuggets now face elimination. Without Edwards, Minnesota will need to rely heavily on secondary scorers to replicate the production that fueled their Game 4 victory—an outcome that feels difficult to sustain under playoff pressure. Denver, meanwhile, is in a clear desperation spot with its season on the line and should respond with increased urgency, leaning on Jokic’s playmaking and Murray’s scoring to dictate tempo. While Minnesota has shown it can compete on the road in this series, the loss of its top option significantly lowers its offensive ceiling. With home court, experience, and a weakened opponent, this sets up as a strong bounce back opportunity for Denver to regain control and win convincingly.
Timberwolves vs Nuggets Game 4 prediction: Nuggets -10.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to -11.5.
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