Andrew Wilsher

The Arizona Diamondbacks continue their East Coast road trip as they open a 3-game set against the Philadelphia Phillies. Arizona is coming off a series win over the Mets, taking 2 of 3, while the Phillies dropped 2 of 3 to the Giants and are still searching for offense after being held scoreless over their last 20 innings.

Taking the mound for the Diamondbacks will be Mike Soroka who is 2-0 with a 0.90 ERA through 2 starts this season. For the Phillies, they’ll send Jesus Luzardo to the mound who is 1-1 with a 4.97 ERA. Offensively, these teams have been very similar. The Phillies rank 20th in the league in OPS (.658) and average 3.5 runs per game, while the Diamondbacks rank 21st in OPS (.657) and average 4.3 runs per game. As far as the bullpen goes, the Diamondbacks bullpen has struggled this season, posting a 5.40 ERA while the Phillies hold a 3.89 ERA.

At the end of the day, both teams are fairly even offensively, and Soroka has been the stronger pitcher to start the season, but the real question is how will this Diamondbacks bullpen hold up if they get an early lead? Soroka hasn’t gone over 5 innings yet this season, and they’ll probably have to rely on Kevin Ginkel, Ryan Thompson, Juan Morillo, or Paul Sewald late in the game — who are well-rested. Despite the concerns surrounding their bullpen, I think the Diamondbacks are more than capable of keeping this game close. 

Diamondbacks vs Phillies prediction: Diamondbacks +1.5 (-135) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The Detroit Tigers are off to a surprisingly slow start. They enter Friday’s matchup against the Miami Marlins with a 4-9 record on the young season, and have lost 5 games in a row. However, they now return home and have a favorable matchup going up against Miami starting pitcher Chris Paddack. Paddack was lit up to the tune of 8 hits and 8 earned runs over 4 innings against the White Sox in his first start of the season on March 30. He bounced back nicely with a strong start against the Yankees, but he issued 4 walks and couldn’t get through 5 innings. The Detroit bats have been quiet to start the season, but they have plenty of talent to be able to take advantage of Paddack’s weaknesses.

The Tigers have played 10 of their first 13 games on the road, so they will be happy to be back at Comerica Park for this weekend series. Conversely, the Marlins have had the luxury of playing 10 of their first 13 games at home, and now have to play on the road for just the 4th time this season. Detroit held a strong 46-35 record at home last season, and they are 2-1 on their home turf so far this season. I am fading the Marlins on the road in this spot and backing the Tigers to find the win column.

Marlins vs Tigers prediction: Tigers ML (-150) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The edge in this matchup is clear, and it starts with Chase Burns taking the mound for the Cincinnati Reds. Burns has looked every bit like the overpowering frontline arm Cincinnati hoped for, and this sets up as the kind of matchup where his skill set can completely dictate the game. Through his early work, Burns is 1-0 with a dazzling 0.69 ERA. The supporting metrics are just as impressive. He’s striking out hitters at a rate of 13 per 9 innings, generating ground balls at nearly a 50% clip, and carrying a crisp 0.90 WHIP. That combination is what makes him so dangerous. He can miss bats when he needs a punchout, but he also limits damaging contact when hitters do put the ball in play.

That profile is especially threatening against a Los Angeles Angels offense that often leans heavily on power. The Angels can change games with the long ball, but they’re also prone to strikeouts and extended offensive droughts when facing premium swing-and-miss pitching. Burns is built to exploit exactly that weakness. Jack Kochanowicz has been serviceable for Los Angeles, but there’s a clear difference in ceiling between these starters. Burns gives Cincinnati the kind of frontline advantage that can create separation and that’s why the run line is the right way to play it.

Angels vs Reds prediction: Cincinnati Reds -1.5 (+120) available at time of publishing. Playable to the number.

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