Andrew Wilsher

Big Monday features a key clash in the ACC between the Louisville Cardinals and the North Carolina Tar Heels in Chapel Hill. Both teams are locks for the NCAA tournament at this point but both also sit tied at 9-5 in the ACC standings, which is only sixth place. A win here would be important for seeding and postseason paths. The key decision you have to make in this game is how to evaluate North Carolina without Caleb Wilson, who will miss his fourth straight game. For me, I think that loss is more impactful than has yet been exposed, and the explosive Louisville offense might be the team to expose that. Give me Cardinals -2 for my North Carolina vs Louisville prediction.

The trick here is that the Tar Heels have not yet lost at home, a perfect 15-0 this season. They have also won 2 of 3 without Wilson, although the wins were against Pitt and Syracuse, while they lost to NC State by 24 (another fast-paced, explosive offense). Do we think that playing at home is enough to overcome the loss of their leading scorer? For the Cardinals, this team is on a roll behind their own superstar freshman, Mikel Brown Jr. They were annihilated at Duke a month ago, but since then they have won 6 of 7. I think this Louisville offense is enough to carry the day. UNC has a weakness defending the three-point shot, and Louisville makes a ton of them. Look for that to make the difference tonight. I don’t want to push this line out very far, but if we can get the Cardinals by a bucket then I’ll take it.

Louisville vs North Carolina prediction: Louisville -2 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable to -2.5.

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One of the most fascinating college hoops games of the entire week takes place at Phog Allen Fieldhouse on Monday, as the Kansas Jayhawks will host the Houston Cougars in a battle between a couple of reeling Big 12 contenders. I was all over Houston in what appeared to be an excellent spot against the Arizona Wildcats at home, but head coach Kelvin Sampson’s team was frankly outplayed and dominated physically by an opponent that was hell-bent on making a statement. On the other side, Kansas is coming off one of its worst home defeats in head coach Bill Self’s tenure, with the Jayhawks looking unfocused and uninterested in a double-digit home loss to a very mediocre Cincinnati team. This inherently creates a natural bounce-back spot for Kansas in a venue where it’s hardly lost over the past couple of decades. With that in mind, while I’m not eager to fade Houston following a couple of difficult losses, the historical data and Self’s perfect record in these Big Monday home games is convincing enough for me to side with the Jayhawks in a game that should come down to the wire.

It goes without saying that Kansas has a stellar record at home against high-level competition, and that has continued into this season with the Jayhawks picking up victories over BYU, Iowa State and Arizona at home, and doing so in a variety of ways. It would be reasonable to expect Self and his staff will have devised a strong game-plan and lit a fire into the team following one of their worst showings of the season. Houston’s offense is stronger than in past years, but this is still a matchup where the Jayhawks excellent defense should be able to hold its own. Not only is Kansas one of the best in the nation at limiting points in transition, but it is also among the best in the country in field-goal percentage and 3-point defense. As long as Flory Bidunga, Bryson Tiller and the rest of the Jayhawks are able to hold their own on the glass — a key point of emphasis following Saturday’s debacle on that front — it should be pretty difficult for Houston to score consistently on Monday. 

On the other side of things, Houston’s defense is a stout, physical unit that makes it hard for opponents at all levels. However, the Jayhawks aren’t a team that attempts a ton of threes, which is what Houston forces opponents to do, but Kansas has shot the ball very well at home during Big 12 play as a unit. Considering that this game also follows a very poor performance from the field for a Kansas team that attempted a ton of difficult midrange jumpers and shot just 22% from beyond the arc, we can expect a bit of positive regression for the Jayhawks in this one. Lastly, it’s hard to undersell this environment — and we just saw the impact of Allen Fieldhouse in Kansas’ win over Arizona a few weeks ago. Jayhawks fans will certainly remember last season’s double overtime loss to Houston in this building, and I anticipate a frenzied crowd for 40 minutes in this one. As long as the Jayhawks are able to stay within range and put some real game pressure on Houston, they are certainly live to spring the upset as short home ‘dogs on Monday. 

Houston vs Kansas prediction: Kansas ML (+125) available at time of publishing. Playable to +120. 

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