Andrew Wilsher

This number is less about how good Georgetown is and more about where Butler is right now. The Bulldogs aren’t just losing, they’re unraveling. When teams hit a true late-season skid, the biggest issue isn’t talent, it’s game flow. Defensive possessions get shorter, offensive patience disappears, and small deficits snowball because the group no longer trusts the next stop or the next shot.

That’s the danger against Georgetown at home. The Bulldogs already are 1-7 SU on the road this season and the Hoyas play at a higher level in D.C. Even more concerning, the Hoyas don’t need explosive offense to cover this number, they just need structure. Georgetown has been just fine in holding up, particularly against Butler. These two sides last met in January where the Hoyas controlled the Dogs on both sides of the court in a 77-64 win. Now with home court on their side, all they have to do is rinse, wash, and repeat. If Butler falls behind early, their recent profile suggests extended drought risk. Right now, Butler is fragile. At home, Georgetown is positioned to expose that. Lay the points.

Butler vs Georgetown prediction: Georgetown -6.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to -7.

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Winners of 3 straight and 7 of their last 10, the Arkansas Razorbacks will hit the road for Tuscaloosa on Wednesday night to play the Alabama Crimson Tide for the only time during the regular season. Arkansas’ most recent win came at home against Alabama’s arch rival, in what was an excellent offensive showing from the Hogs against Auburn. They scored 1.32 points per possession on 67.5% shooting from the interior, while the Tigers struggled to find offensive consistency without Keyshawn Hall. 

Like Arkansas, Alabama finds themselves in the midst of a nice winning streak and has prevailed in 7 of their last 10 games. Their offense has come alive since the 100-77 loss to Florida, as the Tide have scored 89 or more in 4 straight and have made at least 12 threes – as many as 17 – in each of those games. It will be interesting to see if that holds up against an Arkansas defense that is 3rd in the SEC in three-point rate allowed and while limiting conference opponents to 31.3% on those attempts. In fact, over their last 5 games, the Razorbacks are in the 87th percentile or better nationally in three-point rate allowed, three-point percentage allowed and three-point assist rate – which means this Arkansas squad matches up nicely against the perimeter-oriented Alabama offense. We saw it a bit last year, when Coach Cal’s Razorbacks held Alabama to 5-of-19 from three, albeit that game being in Fayetteville rather than Tuscaloosa with completely different teams. However, the overall structures of these systems remain the same. 

This Arkansas defense has travelled well this season, sitting 31st nationally in adjusted efficiency in road games per Bart Torvik, as well as 24th in opposing three-point percentage and 6th in block rate. In conference road games, they lead the SEC in forced turnover rate and opposing free-throw rate, which should give them a chance to win the shot volume battle against Alabama. In their 6 conference road games, they are 4-2 ATS. Zooming out a bit, they are 17-8 ATS this season and have covered in 8 of their 12 games since the new year. Meanwhile, Alabama is 11-14 ATS this season and 2-4 ATS at home since January 1st. 

Arkansas vs Alabama prediction: Razorbacks +4.5 (-112) available at time of publishing. Playable to +3.

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The DePaul Blue Demons will travel to Newark on Wednesday night to play a Big East Conference game against the Seton Hall Pirates. Neither team is a projected tournament team, but Seton Hall still has a chance to make the Big Dance if it can finish the season strong. DePaul is better than it has been in recent years, but it still will be in for a big challenge in this matchup. Seton Hall is currently a -8.5 favorite, and I like it to cover.

The Pirates’ defense is among the best in the country and they should be able to turn over DePaul at a high rate. According to KenPom, Seton Hall’s defense is ranked #7 in turnover percentage; DePaul’s offense is ranked #246. The Blue Demons average 12.1 turnovers a game and will likely struggle to take care of the ball on Wednesday. I believe that the Pirates’ defense will be the difference in this matchup. Let’s roll with Seton Hall.

DePaul vs Seton Hall prediction: Seton Hall -8.5 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable to -10.

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