Andrew Wilsher

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This is a ludicrous point spread rooted in subjective bias and market prejudice. From first glance, Washington looks bad (16–43) and Houston is legitimately good (37–22), so the line makes sense on paper. Houston is a contender for the West, while the Wizards continue to languish in the East. That makes the Wizards a team with far less curb appeal compared to the Rockets. And that notion is the main driver of both the price and the market’s position in this spot. That in itself makes the Wizards worth a look here.

Big numbers become fragile when the underdog can score just enough at home to avoid true separation. The Wizards can do that and particularly, their offense plays at a higher level in D.C. which speaks into why their home ATS splits are far more profitable than their road record against the spread. Moreover, Houston’s best wins are physical and controlled. That’s great for winning, but it can be daunting for covering a monster spread, if the game never turns into an avalanche. Even if the Rockets lead by 20 for long stretches, that’s still a danger zone for them because a single Wizards run against bench units can sneak Washington through the backdoor. It is disadvantageous to lay lumber here, in a spot where the home dog has several avenues to come in under the inflated number. Take the points.

Rockets vs Wizards prediction: Wizards +15.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to +15.

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The Boston Celtics and Milwaukee Bucks meet in a historically higher intensity Eastern Conference matchup, but scheduling dynamics point toward a lower scoring contest. Boston has been one of the league’s most disciplined defensive teams this season, ranking near the top in defensive efficiency and points allowed per 100 possessions. Notably, Celtics games are 8-2 to the under when they’re playing on no rest, a trend that reflects their tendency to slow tempo and rely on half court execution in back to back situations. Last night, the Celtics took care of business against Philadelphia with Jaylen Brown and Neemias Queta leading the way with 27 points each. Offensively, Boston remains efficient, but fatigue spots often lead to longer possessions, fewer transition opportunities, and an increased emphasis on shot selection and defensive balance rather than pace.

Milwaukee has shown similar tendencies in no rest scenarios, with games leaning under as they prioritize structure over speed. The Bucks have shifted into a more methodical offensive rhythm, frequently working deep into the shot clock and focusing on half court sets rather than quick strikes. While they possess enough scoring talent to generate scoring runs, their defensive approach tightens in physical matchups, especially against elite competition. Recent meetings between these teams have featured playoff style intensity, with contested perimeter shots and fewer easy baskets in transition. With both teams capable of defending at a high level and neither likely to push tempo on tired legs, this shapes up as a controlled, grinding battle where possessions are valued and scoring runs are limited.

Celtics vs Bucks Prediction: Under 215.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 214.5

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A game against the Pelicans was exactly what the Clippers needed following 3 consecutive narrow losses. Kawhi and co. are back on track with a dominant 20-point win, putting up 137 points on the Pels. What should make head coach Ty Lue happy is also the fact that no starter played more than 29 minutes, which should keep them relatively fresh in tonight’s 2nd night of a back-to-back scenario at Chase Center. This building has been tough to conquer for the Clippers with just 3 wins in 10 games, but considering the state of the Warriors at the moment this could be their best opportunity to turn around their luck. Overall they’ve won 8 of 9 meetings, while also covering in 7 of the last 8 against this team.

A total of 6 players are currently out for the Warriors, including Stephen Curry who will be re-evaluated in 10 days with his knee issue. The last 10 games haven’t been a good stretch for this team – the Warriors are just 4-6 SU and Monday’s game sees them take on a Clippers team that’s right behind them in the West standings. The fact that they’re playing at home is the only positive ahead of this game, in 31 games at Chase Center the Warriors have triumphed in 19 of them. But still, no Porzingis and Curry will make their life very difficult against a Clippers team that’s been one of the better ones in the league since the turn of the new year.

If the Clippers are serious about moving up the standings, and I believe they are, they should be winning games like these against direct opponents in the play-in tournament race. A win here trips the Warriors lead in the standings to just 1.5 games, putting added pressure on Steve Kerr’s men. With LA covering in 7 straight vs West opponents and their superior head-to-head record, I’m backing them to get the job done here with confidence.

Clippers vs Warriors prediction: Clippers -1.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to -3.5.

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There is probably no hotter ticket in the country than the Duke Blue Devils, right now. The Blue Devils by default are a team that has a Yankees-like mystique about them and that almost certainly translates to paying a premium to back them on most nights. After knocking off top-ranked Michigan, their stock has reached new heights. This makes the Blue Devils a great fade because they are prone to be overvalued on most occasions. But when we factor in the spot, we have to really like that proposition.

NC State is a known threat in the Lenovo Center to all that dare enter, you can ask North Carolina about that one for example, who was summarily dismantled by State in February. The Pack nearly upset Kansas in Raleigh earlier this season, where overtime was required and the differential ended being a mere point. NC State has also beaten Clemson outright in January. The Tigers just upset a ranked Louisville team. So the point is, the Red and White can knock off premium opposition. So what does NC State have to do to get some respect here? Beat Duke maybe? Regardless, we are getting a competent underdog taking back enhanced points in their own den. That is value in itself. Whether the bet cashes or not, the Wolfpack are the right play here.

Duke vs NC State prediction: NC State +9.5 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable to +9.

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The final week of the college basketball regular season tips off on Monday with a massive marquee game on the schedule between the Iowa State Cyclones and Arizona Wildcats. These teams are entering this game following completely different results, as the Cyclones were routed at home by Texas Tech, despite being significant favorites heading into that game. As for the hosts, Arizona exacted a bit of revenge against Kansas, using a dominant second-half to cruise to a 23-point victory. Now, having just won a couple of emotional games against Houston and Kansas, and with the Big 12 regular season title essentially locked up with 2 games to play, the Wildcats could come out a bit flat in this one. With that in mind, despite a couple of shaky performances in recent weeks, I’ll be backing TJ Otzelberger’s team to keep this game within the number. 

Arizona is an elite team on both sides of the ball, and the Wildcats are certainly capable of winning any game at home by double digits. However, they haven’t been quite invincible at the McKale Center this season, as we saw in a loss to Texas Tech a few weeks ago. The recipe to knock off Arizona is one that centers around holding your own on the glass, forcing turnovers and making outside shots. It just so happens that Iowa State is one of the best teams in the nation at forcing turnovers on defense, and the Cyclones are also ranked 8th nationally in 3-point percentage (Bart Torvik), thanks to the sharpshooting prowess of Milan Momcilovic and freshman Jamarion Batemon off the bench. The Cyclones are also coming off an extremely rare low-energy performance at home, in which they clearly didn’t defend to their standard and also shot poorly from both inside and beyond the arc. I would expect a strong gameplan from this coaching staff and a much more spirited effort from this proud program in a spot where few are expecting them to hang with one of the elite teams in the nation. 

Considering that Iowa State is coming off one of its worst performances of the season and should be due for a considerable bit of shooting regression in this spot, it’s reasonable to expect that the Cyclones should play to their high standard against an Arizona team that is primed for a bit of a letdown following a couple of emotional victories over the last 10 days. All things considered, I’ll take the points in a game that should be a hard-fought battle until the buzzer sounds. 

Iowa State vs Arizona prediction: Iowa State +7.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to +7.

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The Columbus Blue Jackets are looking to avoid a 3-game losing streak when they visit the New York Rangers on Monday night. Columbus has been on fire since Rick Bowness took over for Dean Evason behind the bench, but they’ve struggled out of the gate following the Olympic break with back-to-back losses to the Bruins and Islanders. However, the good news is that the offense is still in a groove, as they’ve scored 5 goals over the last 2 games and out-shot Boston 40-22 and New York 30-26. Zach Werenski continues to produce at an elite level, as he enters this contest riding a career-best 9-game point streak. The Rangers have not been a solid defensive team this season, and a lot has been asked of Igor Shesterkin between the pipes. He was dynamite on Saturday against the Penguins, but the Blue Jackets should come out firing an give him all he can handle.

New York’s offensive struggles at home are well-documented, but going up against Columbus goaltender Elvis Merzlikins could present plenty of opportunities. After Jet Greaves started for Columbus on Sunday night against the Islanders, Merzlikins is expected to be in net for this contest at Madison Square Garden. Merzlikins has essentially been regulated to Columbus’ back-up role, as he owns a 3.47 goals-against average to go along with a less-than-ideal .887 save percentage in 22 games this season. Make it a small play, but look to the over in this one.

Blue Jackets vs Rangers prediction: Over 6 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The Carolina Hurricanes kick off a four-game road trip through the Western Conference, first stopping at Climate Pledge Arena in Seattle to face the Kraken at 10 p.m. ET. Carolina edged Seattle 3-2 as heavy favorites on Jan. 10 in Raleigh. The Kraken led 2-1 heading into the third period, but Jordan Martinook leveled the score midway through the third, and William Carrier notched the game-winning goal a few minutes later. Seattle was able to muster just 12 total shots against rookie Brandon Bussi, who ended up making 10 saves to outduel Joey Daccord, who had 33 saves.

We’re projected to see Bussi and Daccord in a rematch. Carolina heads into this road trip on quite the roll, sitting atop the Metropolitan Division. The Canes have won five straight games, including 5.0 goals per game in the first 2 games since the Olympic break. They’ve also picked up at least 1 point in 12 straight, going 10-0-2 in the span since Jan. 16. They’re also 14-1-3 in the previous 18 outings, including the 3-2 victory against the Kraken in Raleigh. Seattle has won 4 in a row at home, but three of those victories have come against teams not currently inside the playoff picture. This game has all the makings of a lower-scoring contest, so let’s take the under in Seattle.

Hurricanes vs Kraken prediction: Under 5.5 (+115) available at time of publishing. Playable to -110.

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The Dallas Stars enter Monday night’s matchup against the Vancouver Canucks without one of the best players in the league available. Mikko Rantanen is slated to be out at least 2 weeks with a lower body injury, and it goes without saying that his absence is a big one. Dallas is still plenty capable of putting up great offensive numbers without Rantenen in the mix, but other impact players are nursing injuries as well. Roope Hintz is a game-time decision, and Tyler Seguin is out for the season with a knee injury. Those absences hurt Dallas’ forward depth, and it will be interesting to see how the Stars adjust over the next few weeks. Dallas has been stout defensively since the Olympic break, as they’ve allowed just 3 total goals in 2 games in their return to action. They seem to have another favorable matchup going up against a Vancouver offensive attack that is among the worst in the NHL.

The Canucks have struggled to score goals on a consistent basis all season long. They rank 30th in the NHL scoring 2.51 goals per game, and their power play percentage of 17.9% ranks 24th. That number may even be a bit inflated, as the power play was in much better shape earlier this season when Quinn Hughes was quarterbacking the man advantage. The Canucks have scored just 3 total goals in 2 games after the Olympic break, and the Stars are one of the toughest defensive teams to play against. This has the makings of a low-scoring affair.

Stars vs Canucks prediction: Under 5.5 (+115) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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