Andrew Wilsher

After a dominating win over No. 24 Clemson on Saturday, No. 4 Duke will look to keep things rolling when they host Syracuse on Monday night. The Blue Devils pulled away in the second half against the Tigers, shooting 42.6% from the floor and outrebounding them 37-32. Syracuse is also coming off a big win of their own, defeating SMU 79-78 on Saturday while shooting 45% from the floor. With only a few weeks left in the regular season, the Orange will do everything possible to try to move up in the ACC standings. 

Duke has been terrific all season, and a big part of that success is Cameron Boozer, who is averaging 22.8 points and 9.9 rebounds per game. Syracuse’s leading scorer, Donnie Freeman, is averaging 17.6 points and 7.2 rebounds per game, and the Orange have three additional players scoring in double figures. That balance could help them test Duke’s defense and get things going offensively, and not have to rely just on Freeman to carry the team. Defensively, Duke leads the ACC in defense this season with 63.1 points per game against conference opponents, where Syracuse ranks 9th with 72.2 points per game. The Orange are 2-4 on the road this season, but they’ve competed well against strong opponents. They defeated then-No. 13 Tennessee by two earlier this season, lost to Clemson by three, lost to then-No. 14 UNC by 10, and then-No. 18 Virginia by 13. Duke is going to win this game, but I think Syracuse has enough talent offensively and defensively to keep this game from getting out of hand. 

Syracuse vs Duke prediction: Syracuse +19.5 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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Before you settle in for Houston and Iowa State Monday night, feel free to swing by the small conference ranks where the Drexel Dragons face the Stony Brook Seawolves. Both teams have similar profiles. They both sit at 7-6 in the middle of the Colonial, and both are far better at home than on the road. Both rank outside the top 200 per KenPom, who has both offenses around 280 and both defenses around 170. Both teams play at a remarkably slow pace as well. In short, they are similar. They met in January, and I kid you not, the final score was 56-37, Drexel. Give me the Dragons +4 in the rematch.

How did Stony only manage 37 points in the first matchup? One reason is pace of play, to be sure. This game will be slow. The biggest issue, however, was abysmal shooting. The Seawolves shot only 20% from the floor, and they were even worse from 3, going 5 of 27. Is that repeatable? Indeed, Torvik has Drexel’s defense inside the top 50 for 2-pt percentage defense, 3-pt percentage defense, and 3-pt percentage rate allowed. Surely Stony Brook will see a few more shots fall at home, but the Seawolves are a predictably bad team inside the arc, and they live and die by the 3. It is very possible, and indeed predictable by the metrics, that the Seawolves would struggle again in this game. And yet we are catching points with Drexel? Sure, give me that, and let’s mark that down as our bet for Monday’s contest.

Drexel vs Stony Brook prediction: Drexel +4 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to +3.5.

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College basketball fans are in for a treat on Monday, as we have a massive marquee game on the schedule between the Houston Cougars and Iowa State Cyclones, a couple of the best teams in the loaded Big 12 conference. I was all over the Cyclones to dispatch the Kansas Jayhawks last Saturday in what was a fantastic spot to back an Iowa State team that had revenge on its mind at home. As for Houston, the Cougars continue to roll through Big 12 play, as Kelvin Sampson’s team has rattled off 5 straight double-digit wins en route to assuming control at the top of the league standings. Houston has a massive week ahead, with a showdown against Arizona staring the Cougars in the face on Saturday. But first, they’ll have to win in an absolute hornets nest of the environment known as Hilton Coliseum. With that in mind, I’ll be going back to the well with Iowa State in what should be an excellent contest on Monday.

TJ Otzelberger’s team has been elite in Ames all season long, and that could end up being the difference in this game. These are a couple of very evenly matched teams on paper, with Houston and Iowa State sitting at 4th and 7th in KenPom respectively. Ultimately, there are a couple of advantages for the hosts that should play a significant role in the Cyclones’ ability to come away with a victory in this one. Most notably, the Cougars are 289th in the nation in 3-point rate allowed, and Iowa State is one of the top 5 teams in the country in 3-point percentage, thanks to the sharpshooting prowess of Milan Momcilovic and freshman Jamarion Batemon off the bench. The Cyclones shoot over 40 percent from deep at home, which should aid them against an excellent Houston defense that thrives on denying points in the paint (13th in 2-point percentage allowed). Furthermore, Iowa State is an excellent rebounding team on both ends, which is always key against a Houston squad that lives to create extra possessions on the offensive glass, while also denying chances for opponents to do the same. The Cyclones also do a great job of not fouling (19th in free-throw rate allowed), and Houston struggles at getting to the free-throw line anyway, so free points shouldn’t be much of an issue. All things considered, this is a pretty decent matchup for the hosts.

Given the elevated home court advantage for the Cyclones in this one, and the couple of pivotal advantages that the hosts have in this matchup, it’s reasonable to project that Iowa State should play to its high standard at home against a Houston team that is primed for a road loss following 6 straight fairly routine victories. I’ll take the Cyclones to hold serve in front of their home fans. 

Houston vs Iowa State prediction: Iowa State ML (-130) available at time of publishing. Playable to -140.

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