Andrew Wilsher

The Washington Nationals demolished right-handed pitching during the month of May. Across May they ranked 4th in wOBA with a 121 wRC+, posting a top 10 hard-hit rate and a bottom 10 strikeout rate. Washington will face off against Sandy Alcantara on Monday as they begin their series with the Miami Marlins. Alcantara is in poor form, having allowed 14 earned runs in his last 2 starts and a 7.39 ERA across May as a whole. In those last 2 starts he has surrendered 5 home runs to the Braves and Blue Jays. He has been at his worst away from home this season, posting a 6.07 ERA across 29.2 innings of work.

Cade Cavalli enters this matchup in better form than his counterpart. Cavalli made 5 starts in May, tossing 29 innings with a 3.41 ERA. His last 3 outings were all quality starts including 6 innings of 1-run ball against the Guardians in his last start. Cavalli presents the Nationals with a solid chance to win each start, and his underlying metrics support his success with a 3.96 xERA and even better 3.01 FIP. Miami ranked just 26th in wOBA with an 82 wRC+ against righties in May and I side with Washington in this game.

Washington Nationals vs Miami Marlins prediction: Nationals ML (-142) available at time of publishing. Playable to -155.

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The Kansas City Royals were swept over the weekend by the Texas Rangers, extending their losing streak to 6 games. They have now lost 10 of their last 12 as they make the trip from Arlington, Texas to Cincinnati, Ohio to play the Reds on Monday night. The Reds avoided being swept by the Braves over the weekend with a 6-4 win on Sunday, breaking what was a 3-game losing streak. 

Monday’s matchup pits Kansas City’s Luinder Avila against Cincinnati’s Chase Burns, which should be a massive advantage for the Reds. Avila was a relief pitcher but has been moved into the starting rotation despite not pitching more than 3 innings in any outing. Through 21.1 innings, he’s allowed 27 hits, 12 walks, 12 earned runs and 1 home run along with striking out 20. For what it’s worth, righties have a .841 OPS against Avila, while lefties are at .943.

Burns has been an absolute machine for Cincinnati this year. He is 7-1 in his 11 starts, boasting a 1.96 ERA and a 0.96 WHIP. He may be due for some slight regression with an xERA almost a full run higher than his ERA and a completely unsustainable 94.5% left-on-base rate, but is Kansas City the team to force that regression? I doubt it. The Royals have one of the worst offenses in the league that lacks power and plate discipline. 

The Reds have plenty of flaws, but they are capable of winning any game in which Burns toes the rubber. In fact, they are 8-3 SU in his starts. Look for them to push that to 9 wins on Monday in comfortable fashion against a reeling Royals team off cross-country travel. After all, about two-thirds of Kansas City’s losses in May were by at least 2 runs.

Royals vs Reds prediction: Cincinnati Reds -1.5 (-102) at the time of publishing. Playable to -110.

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The San Francisco Giants and Milwaukee Brewers will be opening up a 4-game series in Milwaukee on Monday. The Brewers have one of the best records in all of baseball right now, and they are very dominant at home with a 19-11 record at American Family Field. It appears to be a bull-pen day for the Brewers, which is alright because they give up the 4th-fewest runs per game as a team in the MLB. They average 3.5 runs allowed per game. Heading into action on Sunday where the Giants scored 19 runs at Coors Field, the Giants were the worst offensive team in the league, averaging 3.7 runs per game. This won’t be enough to keep pace with a solid defensive team in the Brewers, and a Brewers team that averages 4.8 runs per game, 6th-best in the league.

Landon Roupp will have to be good for the Giants to give them a chance in this game. The Giants are only 3-7 in their last 10, and I think they are out-classed in this matchup. I am going to side with the Brewers in this one.

Giants vs. Brewers prediction: Brewers ML (-140) available at time of publishing. Playable to -150.

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