Andrew Wilsher

This is a classic overreaction spot, and it sets up perfectly for the New York Mets to respond. Yesterday’s shutout loss to the St. Louis Cardinals was more about isolated performance than any real shift in team quality. Andre Pallante delivered a standout outing, while Kodai Senga was superb in his own right — he just didn’t do 6.0 shutout innings of 3-hit ball. Mets reliever Richard Lovelady once again exposed the one weak link in an otherwise dependable New York bullpen. That combination created the 3-0 result, but it’s not something that projects forward consistently.

New York now hands the ball to ace Freddy Peralta. When Peralta is on, he can completely neutralize opposing lineups with his strikeout ability and swing-and-miss stuff. That gives the Mets a clear edge on the mound against Matthew Liberatore. Beyond pitching, New York remains superior in overall roster construction. The Mets’ bullpen depth, outside of Lovelady is reliable, and their lineup is more disciplined and capable of generating runs through approach rather than volatility. This is where the market corrects. The Mets are the better team, and this is a spot in which they should prove it.

Mets vs Cardinals prediction: New York -1.5 (+100) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

Small market sports teams are forced to constrict rosters under harsher circumstances than teams with endless funds, and 2 of the best small market teams in all of sports are the Tampa Bay Rays and the Milwaukee Brewers. Both teams have built reputations across the league as teams you don’t want to trade with, as they always seem to come out on top of those deals. Big name players that are seeking lucrative extensions often get shipped away, but the prospect return the organization gets has been able to keep their system rolling. Perhaps no 2 teams have been better at picking up castaways and giving them the coaching and nurturing needed to make it at the MLB level. Both teams made moves this offseason that could have raised eyebrows, but I have learned to trust their player scouting and development.

As for Wednesday’s matchup, I lean towards the Brewers grabbing a win at home. Milwaukee grabbed Game 2 of this series Tuesday evening after Tampa Bay opened the set with a win of their own. I expect a pitching duel in this game with both Drew Rasmussen and Jacob Misiorowski performing well in their season debuts. Misiorowski recorded 11 Ks in just 5 innings of work, allowing just one run on a solo home run. Rasmussen also tossed 5 innings of 1-run ball, allowing a solo shot as well. Rasmussen was less lethal in the strikeout department, but he was efficient with his pitch count and could see his workload extended this time through the rotation. Pricing is the main reason for siding with Milwaukee in this spot, as a -140 price tag for backing Misiorowski is enticing regardless of matchup. Factor in that Milwaukee is at home, and they are the side for me on Wednesday.

Brewers vs Rays prediction: Brewers ML (-140) available at time of publishing. Playable to -145 odds.

Things were looking good for the Tigers last night as they carried a 5-1 lead into the eighth inning, but their bullpen fell apart, giving up five runs and allowing the Diamondbacks to come away with a 7-5 victory. Detroit will look to bounce back today as they send their ace, Tarik Skubal, to the mound. Skubal was terrific in his first start of the season – pitching six scoreless innings, giving up three hits and striking out six. For the Diamondbacks, Zac Gallen gets the nod and will try to rebound from a rough outing against the Dodgers, where he allowed four earned runs on five hits over four innings.  

Offensively, Detroit has struggled to start the season, hitting just .214 with one home run, though they’re still averaging 4.8 runs per game. The Diamondbacks have been slightly more productive, batting .236 with six home runs while also averaging 4.8 runs per game. Even though the Tigers bullpen blew last night’s game, I trust Skubal way more in this matchup than I do Gallen. Skubal has a variety of pitches he can beat you with, ranging from a dominating high-velocity fastball that can touch 100mph to a devastating changeup that hovers around 88mph that keeps hitters off balance. Plus, he’ll throw in sinkers, sliders, and an occasional curveball. Despite their issues with the bullpen last night, the Tigers still hold a 3.21 bullpen ERA while the Diamondbacks bullpen holds a 8.16 ERA. With a clear advantage on the mound, look for Skubal to lead the Tigers to a win, making them my best bet of the day. 

Tigers vs Diamondbacks prediction: Detroit ML  (-160) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.