Andrew Wilsher

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This Big East Tournament matchup carries the appearance of a potential trap for bettors. Butler enters with the stronger overall record, a better seed, and the perception of playing more consistent basketball throughout the season. Those factors naturally make the Bulldogs attractive to the market. Providence, by contrast, has not shown the same level of stability and often appears to be the less reliable side. That contrast makes Butler the intuitive choice for many bettors, particularly with the narrative of revenge entering the game.

The two teams split their regular-season meetings, each winning a double-overtime game at home against the other. That setup creates the perception that Butler will be motivated to avenge the most recent result where the Friars escaped with a 10-point win in Providence in February. However, tournament basketball rarely rewards revenge narratives. Neutral-court environments tend to shift focus toward execution and situational performance rather than emotional motivation. Providence has already demonstrated it can compete effectively with Butler. When spreads are this small, the difference frequently comes down to which team handles the key moments more effectively. The oddsmakers are signaling that the team from Rhode Island is the one to trust more.

Butler vs Providence prediction: Providence -1.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to -2.

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#15 seed Northwestern took care of business yesterday against #18 seed Penn State, shooting 50.9% from the floor and outrebounding the Nittany Lions 28-22. The Wildcats weren’t as sharp defensively as they would’ve liked, allowing Penn State to shoot 51% from the field. However, they did pressure the Nittany Lions into 17 turnovers, converting those into 24 points. Taking a look at today’s matchup against #10 seed Indiana, these two teams last met on February 24th where Northwestern won 72-68. The Wildcats held the Hoosiers to 46% shooting, and they were able to slow down Lamar Wilkerson who went 5-17 from the field. Northwestern’s defense did a great job shutting down the driving lane for Indiana, forcing the Hoosiers to rely more on perimeter shooting. Expect to see that same defensive pressure from the Wildcats again as they look to advance past Indiana. 

On paper, both teams are fairly similar. Northwestern is averaging 73.3 points per game compared to Indiana’s 78.7. Defensively, the Wildcats are giving up 72 points per game compared to the Hoosiers 72.1. Indiana does have a slight rebounding advantage, averaging 36 per game compared to Northwestern’s 34, and Tre Singleton could be an issue inside for the Hoosiers. Nick Martinelli leads this Wildcats team with 22.8 points and 6.3 rebounds per game. For Indiana, Lamar Wilkerson leads with 21 points per game. This should be a great matchup between two evenly matched teams, and we’ve seen how efficient Northwestern’s offense can be, but they’ll need to shut down the driving lanes and control the boards if they want to stay in this game. Indiana comes into this matchup rested, but they’ve struggled down the stretch, losing five of their last six games. Northwestern, on the other hand, has played better basketball late in the season, winning four of their last six. The Wildcats have been a tough opponent all season long, and I expect Martinelli to lead the way again and help Northwestern keep this game close against Indiana.

Northwestern vs Indiana prediction: Northwestern +4.5 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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These teams met twice during the regular season, and TCU took both meetings. The first was in Fort Worth, where the Horned Frogs won in a low-scoring slugfest 68-65, in which both teams shot under 50% from the field and only made 12 combined threes. Oklahoma State actually held a 9-point lead midway through the 2nd half and a 7-point lead with about 3 minutes to play, but they ended the game on a 4-minute scoring drought while giving up 10 unanswered points in the process. In the return game in Stillwater, there was a massive uptick in scoring in the 95-92 OT win for the Horned Frogs. The Pokes shot over 50% from the field and the teams combined for 22 made threes on 15 more attempts than the first meeting, but the Cowboys never led despite that game being played at home and being so close throughout. 

TCU won both meetings by just 3 points, yet the Horned Frogs are laying -4.5 in this matchup at the time of writing, which just goes to show what oddsmakers expect of this bunch in Kansas City on Wednesday. The Frogs have been on a roll of late, boasting an 8-1 SU record since back-to-back losses against Houston and Colorado at the end of January and early February. That run of 8 wins in 9 games includes victories over Iowa State, Texas Tech and Cincinnati, so the Frogs weren’t just beating up on Big 12 bottom feeders over the last month of the season. Sitting top-50 in Haslametrics’ Momentum, the Frogs have played themselves into the field without too much concern, as they’ve outperformed offensive expectations in 3 of their last 4 and defensive expectations in 4 of their last 5.

Oklahoma State wants to attack their opponents through rim dives, shots off the dribble, ball screens and transition. The Pokes are highly efficient in their post-up actions too, but I don’t see the upside in this particular department on Wednesday with Parsa Fallah out for the season and Andrija Vukovic not 100% due to a torn meniscus that he’s been playing through and intends to surgically fix after the season. Those are Oklahoma State’s 2 best post-up players. Vukovic missed Tuesday’s game, and his status for Wednesday is uncertain.

TCU will counter with a defense that is very strong in all the aforementioned areas. Over the last month, the Frogs are top-35 in adjusted defensive efficiency and top-12 in forced turnover rate. They have given up a healthy amount of threes in that time, but Oklahoma State struggles with their perimeter shooting away from home – knocking down just 32% of those attempts. On the other end of the floor, TCU hasn’t been quite as efficient, but the Frogs have the ability to put the ball through the net consistently against bad defenses like Oklahoma State. The Cowboys are outside the top 230 in adjusted defensive efficiency over the last month, and they don’t force many turnovers – which puts a ton of pressure on their offense to pick up the slack. Not to mention, Fallah is their best-graded defender per EvanMiya and one of their best rebounders, which should make scoring around the rim a bit easier for the Frogs, who are strong on the offensive glass as well. I like the Frogs by margin here.

Oklahoma State vs TCU prediction: TCU Horned Frogs -4.5 (-110) at the time of publishing. Playable to -5. 

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The Philadelphia Flyers will be hosting the Washington Capitals on Wednesday night. This will be the second meeting between these teams this season, the Capitals won the first meeting 3-1. The Capitals are coming off a big win on home ice against the Calgary Flames and they are still alive in the playoff race. Despite shipping off a few pieces at the trade deadline, this team’s core remains largely in tact and I believe they are still a better team than the Flyers. They still have their superstar netminder Logan Thompson who has a 2.39 GAA and .912 SVP on the season. They are going up against a Flyers team that struggles to score goals. The Flyers average only 2.79 goals per game. They also are ranked fourth last in the NHL averaging 25.3 shots on goal per game. This lack lustre offense may not be enough to solve Logan Thompson.

Every game from here on out is a must win for the Capitals and I expect a desperate effort from this veteran team on Wednesday. Give me the Capitals on the money line.

Capitals vs Flyers prediction: Capitals ML (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The Montreal Canadiens hit the road for the short trip to Canada’s capital city to battle the Ottawa Senators in what could be a surprisingly entertaining game north of the border. The Canadiens are currently third in the Atlantic Division, well entrenched in the playoff chase, while the Senators are on the outside looking in, five points out of the final wild-card spot, albeit with a game in hand with the Boston Bruins, and two games in hand behind the Detroit Red Wings. This is the fourth and final meeting, and Montreal has won two of those high-scoring matchups.

We’ve actually had the Over cashed in all three meetings this season, and six straight battles since Feb. 22, 2025. In the most recent meeting, the Canadiens outlasted the Senators 6-5 in overtime at Canadian Tire Centre as short ‘dogs (+100), while we’ve had a total of 48 goals in the past six in the series, or a combined 8.0 goals per game. For the Canadiens, they topped the Toronto Maple Leafs 3-1 on Tuesday behind Jakub Dobes, so Sam Montembeault will be in the crease. The Over is 5-1 in the past six games for Montreal, while the Over is 3-1 in Montembeault’s past four outings. The Over has a 3-2 edge in the past five games for the Sens, too.

Canadiens vs Senators prediction: Over 6.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to -130.

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The Orlando Magic have won 4 games in a row as they prepare to host the Cleveland Cavaliers on Wednesday night. Cleveland is hot, as well, with 3 victories in its last 4 contests. With both teams playing great basketball and fighting for playoff positioning in the Eastern Conference, I’m expecting a playoff-like atmosphere that is high on intensity. That would also mean a commitment on the defensive end of the floor. As such, my Cavaliers vs Magic prediction is Under 226.5. A low-scoring affair would be nothing new for these 2 conference rivals. They have faced each other on 2 previous occasions this season and Cleveland has won by scores of 119-105 and 114-98. That’s 224 points and 212 points for those counting.

Orlando has continued to put the clamps down on defense. In fact, it has held its last 2 opponents to 92 and 91 points. The Magic have played 10 straight games without allowing more than 114 points. Both teams are missing some offense, too. The Cavaliers are without Jarrett Allen (15.3 ppg) due to a knee injury, while Anthony Black (also 15.3 ppg) is on the shelf for the Magic because of an abdominal strain. All things considered, let’s roll with the under.

Cavaliers vs Magic prediction: Under 226.5 (-108) available at time of publishing. Playable to 225.

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This price is driven by the contrast in perception as much as the actual matchup. Charlotte has climbed back to .500, is 10th in the East, and just improved to 11-1 in its last 12 road games with Tuesday’s comeback win in Portland. Sacramento, meanwhile, is 16-50, dead last in the West, and priced like a team the market no longer wants any part of. That combination is exactly how you get a road favorite laying this kind of lumber.

The problem is that a spread this big starts to become less about who’s better and more about whether the favorite can sustain margin. Charlotte absolutely deserves respect for its recent form, but this is still a team laying a premium because the market has fully bought the resurgence story. Sacramento’s stock is the opposite: it is so damaged that the Kings only become interesting once the number gets friendly enough to even consider backing them. But what is not being factored in is Sacramento also just rallied from 20 down to beat Indiana, to achieve its first winning streak since January. So while the season-long stock is awful, this is not a team arriving completely lifeless. Charlotte can be the right side in a vacuum and still be the wrong side at this price. The Hornets’ rise and the Kings’ collapse have combined to stretch the line to the point where taking Sacramento and the points is the sharper position, especially considering that the Kings still have a pulse.

Hornets vs Kings prediction: Kings +12.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to +12.

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The number 3 seed is seemingly on the line this Wednesday as the Rockets head to Denver for a date with Nikola Jokic and his Nuggets. It’s a damn shame Houston is playing on a 2nd night of a back-to-back here, that could hinder them a bit against a tough opponent like Denver. But, after winning the most recent meeting between the two sides by 14 points and keeping the other two games really close, I don’t think the Rockets will be discouraged entering this game. They are a solid 6-3 SU in 9 games overall, while on the road they’ve won 7 of their last 10.

Jokic and co. have had their fair share of issues lately, they’ve won just 4 of their last 10 games which has raised a lot of questions over their contender status. And it’s not like this team is bad or anything, it’s their inability to stay healthy that’s hindered them for the most part this season. Aaron Gordon’s comeback is a much needed injection of quality on both ends, he just had a solid game vs the Thunder scoring 23 points and collecting 10 rebounds. He has appeared in only 25 games this season, it might take the Nuggets a while to re-integrate him into their schemes.

And that’s where the Rockets could have the edge in Wednesday’s game. Denver’s defense has been suspect all season long – in just their last 3 games we’ve seen opponents shoot almost 43% from downtown. Not a good sign against a team like the Rockets who rank 7th in three-point percentage hit season. Despite them playing their 2nd game in two nights, I’ll side with the Rockets and the extra points here.

Rockets vs Nuggets prediction: Rockets +5.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.