Andrew Wilsher

After a dominant home win over UCLA on Saturday, the Michigan Wolverines are 24-1 and in the middle of another 10-game winning streak. They will look to push it to 11 when they travel to West Lafayette to play the Purdue Boilermakers on Tuesday night, who have won 4 in a row after a 3-game skid at the end of January. Moreover, only 2 of Purdue’s last 8 games have been at Mackey Arena, so expect a rambunctious crowd when the #1 team in the country comes to town. That being said, Purdue has shown some mortality at home this year, dropping games to Iowa State and Illinois – arguably the 2 best defenses on their schedule to this point – which is notable ahead of this matchup considering Michigan has the best defense in the country.

Not only is Michigan elite defensively, but the Wolverines have incredible length in the front court, making them an absolute nightmare to defend around the basket. In an attempt to negate action at the rim, Purdue deploys a defensive system that involves a ton of hedging and other help-related actions, which has worked well considering the Boilermakers yield a shot at the rim less than 24% of the time (97th percentile). However, when opponents manage to get to the rim, there is very little resistance from Purdue. The Boilers allow opponents to shoot 64% at the rim (36th percentile), and there isn’t a ton of shot-blocking prowess on this team outside of Oscar Cluff, which isn’t ideal against a Michigan front court that makes almost 72% of their attempts at the rim (97th percentile) and 53% of their paint attempts (99th percentile). 

When Purdue has the ball, Braden Smith will orchestrate the offense through a myriad of ball screens and buddy-ball actions, and the Boilermakers will operate heavily through the mid-range. However, Michigan, being the top-rated defense that they are, will have an answer for all of those actions. Per Hoop-Explorer, the Wolverines are elite defensively in the mid-range, against post-ups and in ball screens, while they also shut down drive-and-kick actions with their elite perimeter length and disciplined closeouts. Simply put, I expect it to be difficult for Cluff and Trey Kaufman-Renn to find consistent offensive success against this Michigan front court, as Yaxel Lendeborg, Aday Mara and Morez Johnson Jr. are the 3 best defenders in the country per Evan Miya’s defensive performance rating. That will put extra pressure on Smith and Fletcher Loyer to pick up the slack out of the front court, which they’ve shown an ability to do. However, that approach may be too one-dimensional against this Michigan defense.

Michigan vs Purdue prediction: Wolverines -2.5 (-110) at the time of publishing. Playable to -3. 

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The Villanova Wildcats have secured 20 victories, surging to the brink of the Top 25 rankings in both The Associated Press’ Top 25 and Coaches Polls. Since an overtime loss at UConn on Jan. 24, ‘Nova has picked up five consecutive victories, including an 80-69 win at Creighton as a 2.5-point favorite last time out on Saturday. The Over has cashed in five of the past six games, and 10 of the past 12 contests, too. The Wildcats are on a 6-1 against the spread (ATS) run, while scoring at least 77 points in four of the past five outings, just in case you’re looking for a nice same-game parlay (SGP) opportunity.

For the Musketeers, it has been a down year, while they’re 11-4 at home, Xavier is just a single game over .500. The offense has picked up the pace in the past two games, including a 96-88 win over Marquette at Cintas Center last time out on Saturday, but Marquette is also 4-11 in the league, tied for dead-last. Xavier did top St. John’s, though, a top-20 team on the road last Monday, so when Tre Carroll and the Musketeers are on, this team can be dangerous. Still, XU is 2-5 SU in the past seven games, and 2-3 ATS in the previous five outings. The Over has cashed in three straight, and eight of the past nine. Let’s go high on the total as the best bet here.

Villanova vs Xavier prediction: Over 152 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 153.5.

The Kentucky Wildcats host the Georgia Bulldogs at Rupp Arena tonight at 9:00 as the season heads into the final few weeks. Both teams stand at 17-8, but they are trending in opposite directions. The Wildcats have weathered the storm of injuries to key players, and Mark Pope’s squad had started to find some rhythm and identity. Prior to a loss at Florida over the weekend, the Cats had reeled off 8 wins in their last 9 games. The Dawgs, on the other hand, have lost 5 of their last 6, and they especially struggle on the road in conference play. I will look for all those trends to continue and take Kentucky -7 tonight.

We should certainly expect a lot of points tonight, as both teams like to play fast. Georgia plays at a top-10 pace, and most of their points are generated in transition, especially when they can force live-ball turnovers. Kentucky, however, does not yield a lot of turnovers, taking care of the ball on offense. Kentucky also defends to paint well, and Georgia is poor at shooting the 3. I think this is probably a bad matchup for Georgia in general, but when we add to it the tough road environment with a team that isn’t great away from home anyway, I think the Wildcats should control the game and eventually pull away. If you are betting that way though, it would be nice to see Kentucky actually play well in the first half, something they rarely do.

Georgia vs Kentucky prediction: Kentucky -7 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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