Andrew Wilsher

A part of this handicap is focusing on the fact that heavy juice is required to back South Florida on the point spread. -120, that’s a big no-no. But this is all about understanding the Tigers’ path to a cover. Memphis has an emotional intangible in this series. They’ve owned the Bulls. Memphis has won seven of the last eight meetings outright.

The Tigers are having a down year, 12-13 SU overall. They have only won two games outside of the Music City. USF meanwhile looks like an AAC contender for a March Madness berth at 18-8, and they have gone 10-2 SU in Tampa. What happens as a result? Narrative. This is the spot that many will say the Bulls finally “get” the Tigers. And that may very well be the case. But the Bulls are not only being asked to win here, but do so at margin. That’s the tricky part. Forgetting the emotional angle that Memphis has working in its favor, the Tigers have an antidote for USF’s 13th-ranked scoring offense. The Tigers play defense. USF relies on scoring 88 points per game to notch wins and they have been good at doing that recently, four straight wins where they broke that threshold in three of those victories. But read between the lines. This is a squad that gave up 88 points to UTSA (who is 5-21) and survived Florida Atlantic in a high-tempo scoring fest that saw the Bulls win by a bucket. There are red flags present and all that is being lost in the hype. Also, Memphis can slow down the USF onslaught and force them to play a more conservative game. This will make it harder for the Bulls to get separation and cover this sizeable number. Back the Tigers with the points.

Memphis vs USF prediction: Memphis +8.5 (-109) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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Thursdays are great days to shift our focus to mid-major play, and among those are several AAC games tonight. The Tulane Green Wave face the North Texas Mean Green, a game between two teams in the middle of the AAC standings. Both teams are hovering around .500 in conference play, and both are riding a modest winning streak. In their first meeting, exactly one month ago, North Texas won the game by a score of 71-63. I expect a very similar result in the second meeting, so I am looking at the game total under 136.5.

You never really go wrong with a North Texas under. They are 15-9 to the under on the season, and while they are not as extreme as they have been in past seasons (often seeing game totals under 110!), this is still a slow, deliberate team that plays stifling defense. Tulane ranks around 200^th in terms of pace, and about the same in offensive efficiency, so it isn’t like they are likely to push the scoring either. This is one of those matchups where the first team to 70 wins, and we very well might not get that high. No one enjoys playing unders, but I think it is the right play in this spot.

Tulane vs North Texas prediction: Under 136.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.