College Football Picks Today

SMU's name tends to make oddsmakers think points, points and more points. The problem is the Hokies possess the exact blend of discipline and resistance needed to slow down the Mustangs' high-powered attack. A number over eight touchdowns feels a bit rich for a matchup that may be decided more by defensive execution than offensive fireworks.

This is a matchup between strong defenses and inefficient, unexplosive offenses. USF is also bottom-20 in pace, which could grind this game down to a snail's pace.

Illinois has won three straight games and has figured some things out defensively. Nebraska has lost three straight and is struggling to close out games. I can't lay points with Nebraska right now.

Three straight games of exactly 21 points from New Mexico has convinced the betting public that offense barely exists in Albuquerque. Meanwhile, Nevada has surrendered 71 points across its last three games, and now we're being asked to believe these teams can't combine for 37. I think this total has fallen a few points too far.

TCU's stingy defense will look to slow down Arizona's high-powered offense. TCU excels against the pass and has not allowed an opponent to score more than 21 points this season.

Baylor lost a pair of games, including against TCU at home while losing a 25-24 heartbreaker at Kansas on October 24. However, last Friday, Baylor went down to UCF and routed the Knights 41-9 as a -2.5 favorite. The Bears are now 4-1 ATS in the past five games, and 6-2 ATS overall on the season. The problem for Iowa State is defense, allowing 44.0 PPG in the past two games, and at least 31 points in four of the past five outings.

BYU games have averaged 51.1 combined points, while Utah games have averaged 54.8 combined points, with both programs combining for a 10-6 record on the over.

UCLA is undefeated, ranked #5, and 8-0 ATS. However, the Bruins schedule hasn't been particularly intimidating. The Bruins' reputation is inflated by their perfect record and recent covers, masking the fact that this is a dangerous road assignment. Take Minnesota to pull the outright upset.

Syracuse has won consecutive games as an 8.5-point underdog, beating North Carolina on the road and a ranked SMU at home last Saturday. The Orange are playing confidently with nothing to lose, while Clemson continues to struggle for identity and direction. In a hostile setting against a motivated opponent, fade Clemson and take 'Cuse outright.

Texas has the prevailing must-win narrative, but that doesn't make the Longhorns trustworthy laying points in Columbia. Missouri can match their physicality, defensive prowess and running success. Texas is attracting attention through narrative rather than price. Take Missouri outright.

Tulane's defense has been pretty bad over the last couple weeks. Tulsa should benefit from a bye here. They've already been the more efficient team down-to-down and when it comes to finishing drives.

The Purdue Boilermakers have played well at home, despite going 1-3 SU. All four games have been against teams likely to go bowling. If Purdue hopes to join them, it needs a victory here. It certainly has the offense, going for 24 or more points in six of eight games.

Duke's defense will make life difficult for CJ Bailey playing his second game under interim head coach Todd Goebbel. With Duke going on the road, they will likely rely on their run game to control possession.

Byrum Brown is the league leader in total yards gained in a career. He is set to have another big game on his home field against an Arkansas defense that has struggled against dual-threat quarterbacks.

Oklahoma State ranks top 20 in EPA per play, success rate and points per game. The offense consistently produces chunk plays, averaging 7.3 yards per play compared to 6.0 for Kansas State. Kansas State struggled to keep up with Colorado last week without QB Avery Johnson, and the Cowboys will be the toughest offense the Wildcats have seen to date.

The Chanticleers are coming off an impressive 31-20 win at Georgia State last week, covering as a 3.5-point underdog in Atlanta. CCU has won two of the past three games, while going 2-1 ATS. The offense has been strong, going for 24+ in the past four outings.

The Panthers aren't expected to have their starting quarterback, but the Mountaineers won't have their left tackle and potentially their center. GA State can generate havoc up front, which could be the difference in a cover and non-cover against an inconsistent App State offense with an ailing offensive line.

ULM is 1-7 and has little appeal, but Arkansas State hasn't earned the right to lay 14.5 points. The Red Wolves narrowly beat Kennesaw State and surrendered 56 to South Alabama and 32 to Georgia State. Their vulnerable defense makes this spread excessive. Take Monroe and the points.

South Carolina is surging, while Texas A&M is 1-4 in the SEC and a far cry from the CFP team they were last year. The quarterback advantage for SC is stark here, and the Aggies only have seven sacks on the year.

100 Miles of Hate is the kind of rivalry where records and recent form matter less. Middle Tennessee benefits from home-field advantage and underdog pricing in this spot because Western Kentucky has dominated recently. That ends this weekend in Murfreesboro.

Wake Forest sits 7-1, ranked #15 in the country, and after facing one of the ACC's tougher schedules, now welcomes FCS Merrimack to town. The question isn't whether the Demon Deacons will build a sizeable lead, but when they'll pull the plug on the onslaught. With three ACC games remaining, protecting starters looks far more important than chasing style points.

UAB lost to a poor USF team last week, 30-10, while failing to cover as a 7.5-point underdog. The Blazers are just 2-5 ATS in the past seven outings, too. UAB should get the job done, but it's a little ambitious to think the Blazers could win by more than one score.

Stylistically, this is far from an ideal matchup for the Thundering Herd. Led by QB Max Johnson, the Eagles boast a top-50 passing attack in terms of success rate and is matched up against a Marshall defense ranking bottom 20 in both passing success rate allowed and EPA per dropback.

Temple's run defense hasn't held up well enough to think it can limit the Middies on the ground. The Owls are outside the top 100 nationally in that regard.

With much inconsistency and uncertainty under center for both teams, points could be at a premium. We're looking for a defensive-led game in this one.

The Bearcats defense has been a liability this season, while the Cougars haven't been has good as they'd like to be in big games. Both offenses should be able to move the ball and finish drives with touchdowns more often than not.

Penn State and Washington have both disappointed this season and little separates them beyond UW's home-field advantage. The Huskies are favored by less than a field goal, with a low total of 44.5. This has all the makings of a hard-fought low-scoring affair which marks Penn State with the better value at plus money.

Both teams have questions at quarterback as they deal with different combinations of injuries and poor performance. This should be a game where both teams lean on the run game, opt for safe play calling and play field-position games when they can. I like the under here.

Troy is a super difficult team to figure out this season. It was also blown out 33-6 at Louisiana, while losing at home to UL Monroe as a -13.5 favorite on October 24. So, last Saturday, of course Troy won at James Madison in OT, 24-21, as a 17.5-point underdog. Expect a hangover here. Louisiana Tech has rattled off five straight victories, including shutouts against Old Dominion and the aforementioned ULM.

MO State has been a different team at Plaster Stadium, as opposed to the road. Away from home, the Bears are 0-4 straight up (SU) and 1-3 against the spread (ATS) in four trips, allowing at least 34 points in each of the outings, including a 61-38 beatdown at Delaware in the last road game. FIU should be able to capitalize on those defensive inefficiencies.

North Texas has an explosive offense capable of scoring 50 points, but its defense leaks points, too. Rice doesn't need to win or even keep the game particularly close to contribute enough points to get us in position here. With the Mean Green capable of carrying much of the scoring themselves, a UNT-spearheaded Over is on the cards.

An 0-8 record usually tells most of the story, yet Northern Illinois continues to surprise by finding ways to put points on the board. This matchup may stay competitive for a while, but with Jabari Bates back and healthy, San Jose State has the firepower to pull away late and make a double-digit spread look far less intimidating.

Mississippi State's offense has only averaged six points a game after losing Kamario Taylor to injury. Vanderbilt will be looking to take advantage against a poor Mississippi State pass defense.

Wisconsin likely hasn't forgotten last week's shutout loss at Iowa, and Rutgers may be arriving at the worst possible time. The Badgers aren't an explosive offense, but they've won their last two Big Ten home games by 28 and 17 points and now get a crack at a Scarlet Knights defense allowing 32.6 points per game.

USA has the ability to go off on any given night but their defense can also leak points too. Louisiana, meanwhile, has scored at least 30 in their last three outings. There are several avenues for the over to get home.

Both teams are "over" teams, with Boise State going 6-2 to the over, and Colorado State at 7-1 to the over. Boise has an elite running attack, and Colorado State is dead last in rushing yards allowed. This score should go to the moon.

Kentucky is 7-1 against the spread, and they have three road victories against Texas A&M, Oklahoma and South Carolina. Tennessee has an elite defense, but this game should stay very close, whoever wins it.

Sam Houston has scored 14 or fewer points in four of the past five games and 24 or fewer points in all seven games against FBS opponents, which are all losses, by the way. They've failed to score a touchdown in three of the past four games, posting exactly three points in each of those outings.

Louisville loves to run the ball; Georgia Tech is fifth-worst in FBS against the run. Tech is also 1-7 against the spread this season. The books are daring us to take the home dog at +14.5; I'm not doing it. Louisville should cruise.

Michigan defense has not let them down all season, and now their offense has life under quarterback Tommy Carr. They can continue their momentum at home against a struggling and injured Michigan State

One week Iowa is shutting out Wisconsin 30-0, the next we're asked to forget that its previous road game ended in a 13-10 loss at Minnesota. Northwestern has been one of the Big Ten's quieter success stories this season, and with the Wildcats sitting at 6-2 and playing at home, laying less than a field goal feels like a gift. 

Florida may deserve to be favored at home, but laying nearly a touchdown against an Oklahoma defense allowing just 20.8 points per game feels a bit rich. The Sooners have taken a few beatings this season and made an offensive coordinator change this week, yet they've consistently shown they can hang around in tough games. I don't see Saturday looking much different. 

Liberty is one of the top teams in scoring defenses. They will travel to take on an inconsistent Aggies team that was shutout in their previous outing.

Utah State has been solid against the number this season, going 4-1 ATS in the past five games, while it is 2-1 ATS in three home games against FBS opponents. The Bulldogs are 7-1 ATS in the past eight games, though, while going 2-1 ATS in three conference road games. The Bulldogs are the better team, and they should be able to cover this small spread, attaining bowl eligibility as a result.

West Virginia is 7-1 to the over this season, while Texas Tech is 6-2 to the over. West Virginia is bad on the defensive side of the ball, and their offensive style just lends itself to constant shootouts. I think the Red Raiders will be happy to run up some point totals too.

Wyoming comes in well-rested off the bye and filled with momentum. The Cowboys have improved each week, and they will have the chance to continue their success against a poor UNLV rushing defense.

After falling to the Longhorns in Week 1, all three of Texas State’s losses have been decided by five points or less despite surrendering 31+ points in each loss. Among FBS programs, the Bobcats rank top 25 in EPA per play, success rate and points per game on offense.