MLB Picks

The Diamondbacks have yet to announce their starter, and as they are leaning towards Zac Gallen, it’s still to be determined who’ll be taking the mound for Arizona by the start of this game.  Despite who they send to the mound, my Pirates vs Diamondbacks prediction isn’t going to change much, and this is why I’m leaning towards the Pirates run line in tonight’s matchup.

The Pirates will be sending Luis Ortiz to the mound who is 5-2 this season with a 2.57 ERA.  Ortiz started the year in the bullpen, but more recently he’s been filling in due to injuries, and has been superb in his four starts this year.  In Ortiz’s last start against the Phillies, he picked up the win as he threw for seven innings, striking out two, and didn’t give up a single run.  If the Diamondbacks do send Gallen to the mound, Gallen is 7-5 this season with a 3.64 ERA. 

If Arizona goes with their bullpen in tonight’s matchup, I think that will give the Pirates a better chance of winning as the Diamondbacks bullpen holds a 4.24 ERA this season.  There’s no question that the Diamondbacks are the better hitting team, but the way Ortiz has been dealing and was able to shut out the Phillies, I think the Pirates do enough to keep this game close, which is why I’m taking them at +1.5 for my best bet of the evening.  

Pirates vs Diamondbacks prediction: Pirates +1.5 (-150) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

A pair of division leaders square off tonight when the Philadelphia Phillies host the Cleveland Guardians at Citizens Bank Park for Game 1 of a three-game series. While both ballclubs occupy the top spot in their respective divisions, neither team has put forward a strong showing in July. The Phillies are 9-9 in July and have lost each of their last three series, while the Guardians are 9-11 with their previous series win dating back nearly three weeks when they took two out of three games from the Giants at home. Tonight’s starting pitching matchup features Ben Lively and Cristopher Sanchez, each of whom has been serviceable back-end rotation arms this season. Lively, who began his career in Philadelphia in 2017, is having a career year since coming to Cleveland. Through 17 starts, Lively owns a 3.57 ERA compared to a 3.65 xERA and has only allowed more than 3 earned runs in two outings.

He isn’t a flamethrower by any metrics, and his 42.8% hard-hit rate is well below league average, but he generally limits walks and is facing a Phillies’ lineup with an 86 wRC+ since the All-Star break. The Guardians have experienced their struggles at the plate, posting an 81 wRC+ in July. Their lineup will go up against one of the best ground ball pitchers in the game, left-hander Cristopher Sanchez. Sanchez ranks in the 96th percentile in ground ball rate, and much like Lively, he limits walks and is consistent in the fact that he has surrendered 3 or more earned runs in just three of his 19 starts. I’m expecting a low-scoring game with two offenses that have struggled of late. It’s also worth noting that each team’s bullpen ranks 1st and 2nd in xFIP and could mitigate any potential trouble in the latter innings.

Cleveland Guardians vs Philadelphia Phillies prediction: Under 8 (-105) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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Adam Mazur has been struggling lately while part of the San Diego Padres starting rotation, allowing 8, 2, 3, 4, 4, and 5 earned runs in his last six starts following an impressive debut. Mazur tossed 6.0 innings of 1-run ball in his big-league debut against the Angels but has since seen his performance slip substantially. The right-hander is just 23 years old and is someone the organization has high hopes for eventually. Still, this isn’t the type of matchup on paper where I expect a strong bounce-back start. He will face a Baltimore Orioles lineup that can mold their unit to best attack the opposition. Given Mazur’s glaring struggles against left-handed batters, we could see a lefty-heavy approach from Baltimore.

Grayson Rodriguez pitched well in his first post-all-star break start, tossing six frames of 2-run ball while striking out 8 Texas Rangers. San Diego is not a whiff-happy lineup, but Grayson does have the stuff required to produce in that department regardless of matchup. Command of the zone can falter for the right-hander, but an aggressive San Diego lineup that loves to swing the bat should help his cause in terms of efficiency. While not my absolute favorite game to target, I expect a multi-run win by the Orioles in this spot.

San Diego Padres vs Baltimore Orioles prediction: Orioles -1.5 (-105) available at time of publishing. Playable at that price.

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The Texas Rangers head to Toronto for a weekend series, crossing the border riding a 5-game winning streak. Sure, four of those were a sweep of the lowly White Sox, but there are a lot of signs telling us that the defending champs are heating up. As we head into Friday, I am shocked that the Rangers are plus-money underdogs to the Jays, and thus, my Texas Rangers vs Toronto Blue Jays prediction is the Rangers money line.

Andrew Heaney and Yusei Kikuchi take the mound, both lefties. The Rangers hit lefties better than the Jays, which is an advantage to Texas. Heaney has been fine, if unspectacular, for Texas. He has strung together five straight outings of 2 runs or less. Kikuchi has been knocked around a few times recently and has become a five-and-dive guy. Toronto’s starter has managed to pitch 6.0 innings in only three of his last 13 starts, a concerning trend given that he’s backed by the league’s second-worst bullpen, which holds a 5.01 ERA. And while Vlad is swinging a hot bat, the Toronto lineup is otherwise thin, especially with Bo Bichette on the IL with what looks like a lost season. I do not see how I would back Toronto in this game, and I am shocked they are favored. I am making this plus-money dog the Rangers vs Blue Jays best bet.

Texas Rangers vs Toronto Blue Jays prediction: Rangers ML (+105) available at the time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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Mets fans can celebrate as they welcome Kodai Senga to the mound, as he gets ready to make his first start this season.  The Mets have been on a tear lately, winning five of their last six games, so I can’t say I’m surprised they’re favored in this game. For my Braves vs Mets prediction, I’m leaning towards the Mets money line. Kodai Senga was 12-7 with a 2.98 ERA last season with the Mets.  He threw for 166.1 innings, struck out 202, and walked only 77.  It’s hard to go off of last year’s stats when Senga hasn’t made a start this season, but in his four rehab starts, he posted a 4.15 ERA, which is something to keep an eye on. 

Set to face the Mets tonight will be Charlie Morton, who is 5-5 this season with a 3.92 ERA.  In 18 starts this season, Morton has thrown 103.1 innings, struck out 101, and walked 39. The Mets rank 7th in OPS (.743), and the Braves are 15th (.704). The Mets have belted 133 home runs and average 4.9 runs per game. Meanwhile, the Braves have belted 115 home runs and average 4.2 runs per game. The Mets have been the hotter team, and even though they’ve struggled all year with their pitching, the Braves haven’t been hitting well enough recently, and a big part of that is due to injuries, and that’s why I’ll be backing the Mets as my best bet for this evening.  

Atlanta Braves vs New York Mets prediction: Mets ML (-135) available at time of publishing. Playable up to -145. 

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The New York Yankees have taken their hot start to the season and turned it sour. They started 40-19 through May but have gone 20-25 since. Including going 6-12 through July. I like the Red Sox money line here as slight underdogs, with a struggling Nestor Cortes on the mound for the Yankees. Cortes has taken his ERA from 3.30 at the start of June to a now 3.99 ERA. He has a 7.36 ERA through three July starts, giving up 12 earned runs in 14.2 innings. Cortes has also been lackluster away from Yankee Stadium. He is 0-5 with a 6.04 ERA in 10 road starts. Compare that to a 2.48 ERA at Yankee Stadium, there is a massive issue with him pitching on the road. He employs a fastball/cutter combo that takes up 75% of his pitches, which should mean good things for the Red Sox as they are one of the best teams against lefty cutters.

They rank seventh in batting average against this pitch and have an OPS of .904. If they see too much of Cortes’s cutter, it could mean runs. Red Sox starter Brayan Bello has been having a decent month of July by his standards. While he does have a 4.44 ERA in July, only one of his four starts was not quality (a quality start is determined by throwing at least 6.0 innings pitched and giving up 3 or fewer earned runs). If he can put up another quality start against an offense that has been struggling to produce runs outside of Aaron Judge and Juan Soto, then there is optimism that the Red Sox can get the job done today at plus money.

Boston Red Sox vs New York Yankees prediction: Red Sox ML +100 available at time of publishing. Playable at that number or better.

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We have your Cubs vs Royals prediction right here as the Cubs hope their first road trip after the All-Star break goes better than their first six home games. The Cubs were one of the hottest teams heading into the All-Star break, but since then, they’ve scored only nine runs in their last six games. As for the Royals, scoring runs haven’t been an issue, scoring 35 runs in their previous six games. There is a huge difference between these two teams’ lineups, so I’m leaning towards the Royals today. 

Taking the mound for the Cubs will be the southpaw, Shota Imanaga, who is 8-2 this season with a 2.86 ERA. Imanaga was impressive in his last start against the Diamondbacks, throwing seven innings, striking out 10 and giving up just one earned run.  For the Royals, Brady Singer will be taking the mound who is 6-6 this season with a 3.00 ERA.  Singer picked up the win in his last start against the White Sox as he threw seven innings, striking out seven, and didn’t give up a single run.  

The Cubs have the advantage on the mound today, but with the way the Royals have been swinging the bats and the Cubs are averaging less than two runs per game, I simply can’t trust them. I think the Royals will score a few runs and take advantage of their weak bullpen late in the game, so I’m taking the Royals money line as my best bet for today’s matchup. 

Chicago Cubs vs Kansas City Royals prediction: Royals ML (-150) available at time of publishing. Playable up to -160.  

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The highly anticipated matchup between the Los Angeles Dodgers and Houston Astros on Friday night presents a great opportunity with the under 8.5 runs. Both teams feature strong pitching staffs that have been stingy with runs allowed recently. The Dodgers will send Gavin Stone to the mound, who has been impressive with a 3.19 ERA this season and a particularly effective 2.83 ERA on the road. For the Astros, Framber Valdez takes the hill looking to continue his solid campaign with a 3.63 ERA overall and an even better 3.38  at home. While both offenses have potent bats, this pitching matchup sets up well for a lower-scoring affair.

With two playoff-caliber teams squaring off, we can expect a tightly contested game where runs may be at a premium. The Los Angeles Dodgers at Houston Astros showdown has all the makings of a pitchers’ duel that stays under the total. Both teams rank in the top 10 in team ERA, further supporting the under as a strong play. The Astros went seven straight games of 4 or fewer runs before their most recent 8-1 win at Oakland. Given the quality of the starting pitchers and the overall pitching depth of both squads, bettors should feel confident in backing the under in what promises to be an intense, low-scoring battle between these two powerhouse teams.

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Houston Astros prediction: Under 8.5 runs on the total line at odds of -120 available at the time of publishing. Playable to -125.

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