MLB Picks

Money Line Pick
KC Royals Win

The Royals took the series opener 3-1 on Friday. They have SS Adalberto Mondesi back in the lineup and that gives them another speed threat to go with the power bat of Sal Perez. Thanks to 40 stolen bases from OF Whit Merrifield and another 20 from IF Nicky Lopez the Royals lead the Majors in the category. With a little more clutch hitting they would be better than 24th in scoring this season. They can be dangerous in close games, 43-34 against the run line on the road. 

Detroit has a winning record at home, 41-37. They have been playing well of late too with Friday’s loss to KC snapping a 4 game winning streak. They still have a chance at a .500 record with a strong finish, there just isn’t much room for error. This is still not a great offensive club, with just a few bats that can really do any damage but they pitch better than you think. Once they get some more bats in their lineup they could really be a threat.

He hasn’t always gotten the decision but the Royals have won lefty Kris Bubic’s last 5 starts and 6 of 7. He still walks too many batters but he is definitely looking like a serviceable starter for Kansas City moving forward. KC is 2-1 in his starts against the Tigers this season. Given the state of the Tigers, I am not sure if Wily Peralta is in their long terms plans or not but he is definitely making his case. He has not given up a run in his past 2 starts, covering 13 innings. He doesn’t miss many bats but a team could do worse than the veteran at the back of their rotation. The Royals might be a little familiar with him. He pitched for KC in 2018 and 2019.

This is a better pitching matchup than it looks when you see the names on the screen. The Royals have the much better lineup though and I think you can trust Bubic to be solid enough for them to get a road win. They are a good value at about even money. 

Take Kansas City.

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Game Totals Pick
Under 9.0

These are not elite pitchers but I think both can be effective on Sunday. The Tigers have just 2 overs in their last 10 heading into the Saturday action and the Royals have only 3. Kansas City has a road O/U record of 30-42 and I think they add another under to that mark in this early start after a late afternoon game. Kansas City is 24th in scoring this season and the Tigers are only a smidge better at 22nd. Neither team is blessed with a ton of power and stringing together hits has been a challenge. KC has the speed but that does not lead to a lot of big innings.

Take the under (9 available at publishing, bet to 8.5) 

 

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Matt Wiesenfeld
Run Line Pick
CHI White Sox Win -1.5

The White Sox have already clinched the AL Central, but their focus now is to stay fresh and arrive in the first week of October in top competitive form, because this is a roster that truly has what it takes to go all the way. While the White Sox’ exciting young lineup is what gets the most conversation, their starting rotation has been just as crucial, and Lucas Giolito has a huge deal to do with that. The White Sox were unsure whether Giolito would live up to his potential in the immediate years after acquiring him, but it’s clear now, as he’s about to complete his 3rd straight season with a sub-4 ERA.

The truth is that the White Sox are the better offensive team, and that’s what sets them apart from Cleveland. Both teams have quality starting pitching, and Triston McKenzie will certainly be a force to be reckoned with for years to come. But the 24-year-old is still finding his way in the Major Leagues. He’s walked more hitters than he’d have liked to, and while he’s been tough to hit overall this year, he was rocked his last time out against the worse-than-mediocre Royals, ballooning his ERA for the season to 4.67. There’s a reason – or more accurately, a multitude of them – why one of these teams is going to the playoffs and the other isn’t. Take Chicago on the run line -1.5.

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Game Totals Pick
Under 8.0

To be fair, McKenzie’s season hasn’t been nearly as poor as his overall numbers would suggest. While he had a rough outing his last time out, most of his struggles came early on, and ever since he was recalled from Triple-A halfway through the season, he’s looked like he belongs. Opposing hitters are batting just .184 against the right-hander this season, and his WHIP for the campaign is an excellent 1.11 (and in his past 7 starts it’s 0.69). Giolito is equally tough to hit, and if you can’t get on base, it’s hard to score runs. Expect both starting pitchers to bring their best stuff, and bet on the under.

Under 8 available at time of publishing. Playable to Under 7.5.

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Dylan Ruhl
Run Line Pick
TB Rays Win

Shane Baz has long been considered one of the best pitching prospects in baseball, and the young Tampa Bay right-hander’s debut showed baseball fans that the future has now become the present. Baz outdueled Cy Young candidate Robbie Ray, giving up just 2 hits over 5 innings for the win. While both of those hits did leave the ballpark, it was an incredibly positive outing for Baz, who appears to immediately figure in the team’s plans for the postseason, and shouldn’t expect any demotions again provided he pitches to the level he’s capable of.

The Athletics had high hopes for Jesus Luzardo, but the young lefty just never materialized in Oakland. The Marlins hoped that a trade back home to South Florida would allow the electric but erratic pitcher to calm down and pitch better, but Luzardo has been even worse since joining the team. Through 10 starts, he’s pitched to a 7.13 ERA, walking 30 hitters in 48 innings. The Marlins’ offense shouldn’t count on scoring much against Baz and the Tampa Bay bullpen, while the Rays should get to Luzardo early. Take Tampa Bay on the run line -1.5.

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Game Totals Pick
Under

The Rays officially clinched the AL East on Saturday, which means one thing for Sunday: the hangover lineup. While rosters aren’t expanded as much in September as they have been in past years, which means some regulars will have to play, Tampa Bay’s offense will certainly come in sleepy and with little motivation, at least in this game, given that they’ve already clinched their spot in October. Baz, however, will be plenty motivated making his 2nd big league start, and while he’s only averaged about 5 innings per outing in the minors before going the same length in his debut, he’ll be backed up by the best bullpen in the American League facing one of the worst offenses in baseball. Take the under.

Under 8 available at time of publishing. Playable at that number. 

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Dylan Ruhl
Run Line Pick
WAS Nationals Win +1.5

After owning a spot in the National League wild care just a short time ago, the Reds have seen their playoff hopes dwindle.  Cincinnati is just 9-13 in September, and they have really struggled with runners in scoring position.  Their inability to cash in on scoring chances has really hurt them.  They have lost a lot of games they needed to win, and overall, the Reds are a tough team to trust right now.

Tyler Mahle will take the mound for the home team in this one.  The Cincinnati right-hander has some stark home/away splits this season, and he has not done well at Great American Ball Park.  Mahle is 8-2 with a 1.85 ERA and .192 BAA on the road, but just 4-4 with a 6.10 ERA and .280 BAA at home.  He will face a Washington lineup that is hot.  Juan Soto is on a historic tear, and the Nationals have scored 6 or more runs in 5 of their last 6 games.  The Reds have been tough to back lately, and you never really know what you are going to get from them.  Consider backing the Nationals +1.5.

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Game Totals Pick
Over 9.5

The over is hitting at a strong 56% clip at Great American Ball Park this season, and the over is the recommendation in this one.  As mentioned, the Nationals have scored 6 or more runs in 5 of their last 6 games.  Mahle has not been nearly as comfortable in his own ballpark as he has been on the road.  Washington should be able to give him some issues.  Josh Rogers has been decent as a starter for the Nationals, but his last 3 outings came against the Pirates and Marlins twice.  Facing the Reds at home will be a tougher challenge.  Both bullpens have also been shaky.  Consider a play on the over.

Over 9.5 available at time of publishing.  Playable at that number.

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Connor Grootenhuis
Run Line Pick
MIL Brewers Win

The New York Mets and Milwaukee Brewers will conclude their 3-game series in Milwaukee on Sunday afternoon.  After dropping 5 games in a row (4 to the red hot Cardinals), the Brewers have taken each of the first 2 games of this series against the Mets.  They have held New York to just a single run in each game, and they should feel good about their chances at completing the sweep on Sunday afternoon.  Freddy Peralta will take the mound for the Brewers.  The Milwaukee right-hander has posted back-to-back quality starts with 9 strikeouts.  He is cruising down the stretch, and the Mets have not been able to do much of anything at the plate so far in this series.  Things will not get any easier going up against Peralta in the series finale.

The Mets have lost 9 of their last 10 games.  In addition, they have won just 38% of their road games this season.  The Brewers will be looking to build up some momentum before the postseason, and they have been great at home all year.  Carlos Carrasco has settled in nicely to the New York rotation, but it’s tough to expect much from his offense.  Look for the Brewers to complete the sweep with a win by multiple runs.  Back the Brewers -1.5.

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Game Totals Pick
Under

New York has managed just a single run in each of the first 2 games of this series.  They haven’t been able to get anything going, and Peralta presents another tough challenge.  Milwaukee’s bullpen is also among the best in baseball.  Carrasco has allowed 2 earned runs or fewer in 4 of his last 5 outings.  The under is 15-9-2 for the Brewers at home when the line is 8 or 8.5.  In addition, the under is 13-9 for the Mets on the road in that same spot.  Consider a small play on the under.

Under 8 available at time of publishing.  Playable at that number.

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Connor Grootenhuis
Run Line Pick
TOR Blue Jays Win -1.5

The Toronto Blue Jays and Minnesota Twins will conclude their 4-game series at Target Field on Sunday.  Alek Manoah will take the mound for Toronto.  He is posting an impressive 3.36 ERA through 99.0 innings in his rookie campaign.  The Blue Jays also tend to win games when he pitches.  Toronto is 14-4 in Manoah’s 18 starts on the year, and they have won each of his last 6 outings.  He has allowed just 5 earned runs over his last 3 outings (19.2 innings), and he seems to have a favorable matchup in this one.  The rookie right-hander will face a Minnesota offense that has struggled to generate runs on a consistent basis this season.

Another rookie, Griffin Jax, will toe the rubber for the Twins.  He has not been as successful as Manoah in his rookie season.  Jax is posting a 6.67 ERA so far in September, and opponents are hitting a strong .264 against him on the year.  Toronto has one of the most daunting lineups in baseball, and they can strike at any moment.  They are still fighting for a spot in the postseason, so look for the Toronto bats to be ready to roll.  Manoah should hold it down on the mound.  Back the Blue Jays -1.5.

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Game Totals Pick
Under 9.0

The under is the recommendation in this matchup, but only as a small lean.  The under is 5-1 in the 6 matchups between these teams so far this season.  The under is also hitting at a 59% clip for the Blue Jays on the road.  Manoah seems to be locked in, and he should be able to have a strong outing in this one.  It’s tough to see the Twins doing much at the plate.  Jax has been shaky, but he has shown flashes of what he is capable of.  As long as he doesn’t implode, the trend of low-scoring games between these teams should continue.  Consider the under.

Under 9 available at time of publishing.  Playable at that number.

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Connor Grootenhuis
Run Line Pick
SF Giants Win -1.5

For a guy with a 2.92 ERA, Kevin Gausman has been pretty hittable recently. He has allowed at least eight hits in all three of his recent outings and his strikeout rate has slowly been going down as the season has progressed. His stunning 1.73 ERA in the first half of the season had him in the talks for the NL Cy Young along with Corbin Burnes and Jacob deGrom. However, his 5.04 ERA in the second half of the season has taken his name out of the running and his off-speed pitches don’t seem to be as effective anymore. Fortunately for him, his offense has been on a tear recently as the average 6.75 runs in their last four games and being in the most hitter friendly park will only help their cause. 

The oddsmakers are giving Anthony Senzatela far too much respect. It’s not that Senzatela is that bad of a pitcher since he has a 4.14 ERA, but his minimal strikeout rate and high solid contact rate are reasons for concern. He ranks in the 20th percentile or worse in hard hit percentage, xBA, chase rate and among others. Besides Senzatela’s struggles on the mound, his offense will be tough to back against Gausman as they have a 30.1 percent strikeout rate in 93 plate appearances. I don’t see the Rockies being able to stop the sweep on Sunday, so back the Giants by the -1.5 run line to maximize the betting value.

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Game Totals Pick
Under 11.5

Both games in this series have stayed below the total and this one should as well. Gausman has excellent numbers against the Rockies hitters and he should be able to limit the damage to a ballclub that is incredibly inconsistent at the plate. The wind won’t play a factor in this game and the Giants will be doing the majority of the scoring, but I can’t see the Rockies scoring enough runs to push this total over. I’ll stick with the recent trends and take the under 11.5 in Colorado.

* Under 11.5 line playable at time of publishing. Playable at that number *

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Keith Schmelter
Money Line Pick
NY Yankees Win

New York took the series opener on Friday night, closing the gap on the Red Sox for the top AL Wild Card spot. SS/2B Gleyber Torres homered in the win and is riding a 10 game hitting streak into Saturday action. Consistent hitting has been a challenge for the Yankees all season long so getting more players in on the action is key. Two years ago he was looking like a star and he is one of several Yankees who has hit 30+ homers in the past. Their lineup is so deep, the challenge has been getting more than one guy going at a time.

Boston is in a good spot but losses to the Yankees are more than just losing to your rival at this point in the season. They saw their 7 game winning streak come to a close on Friday night and that had to sting at home. Starting pitching has hurt them all season long, they are just 26th in the Majors in quality starts. When they don’t get one it puts a ton of pressure on their hitters. The offense is good but these are pressure-packed games right now

A couple of lefties are taking the mound on Sunday Night Baseball. For the Yankees, Jordan Montgomery has been very steady this season. This will be his fifth start of the year against Boston. The team is 1-3 in his starters but he has pitched well enough to win in all of those contests. For Boston. Eduardo Rodriguez has good strikeout numbers and a winning record but his ERA is the highest it has been in his career. The Yankees have hit him this season but they haven’t seen him since July.

These are two good teams and the pricing of the games in the series is going to influence which way to play it. On Friday it was all about getting Gerrit Cole and the Yankees at a price too good to ignore. I think the same thing is happening on Sunday. I make this game a pick’em but that is not how the books see it. Getting the Yankees on the plus side is a great bet to make on Sunday night. These teams are way too even in this matchup to pay a premium.

Take New York.

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Game Totals Pick
Over 10.0

New York has had success against lefties, 30-23 SU but that has not translated into many overs. They have a lineup that should feast on them with so many righty power bats, though they are also more balanced since they made their deadline deals. Boston is very similarly constructed.  The Red Sox are 33-27 against lefties but not showing much in terms of totals, they have just one more over than under against southpaws this season. The total is 10 and I am leaning to the over in this spot. Both pitchers can be very good but there is going to be a lot of attention on this game and I am not sure they are ready to be so fine. The bullpens were better a couple of months ago too.

Take the over (10 available at publishing)

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Matt Wiesenfeld
Money Line PickBest Bet
STL Cardinals Win

St. Louis kept its winning streak going on Friday afternoon. That makes 13 in a row heading into the weekend. It is pretty amazing given how this team had been so ordinary most of the season and the moves the Cardinals made at the deadline were to pick up veteran arms that nobody else seemed to want. Paul Goldschmidt picked up his game and the Cardinals have 3 hitters in the lineup with 30+ homers. They can beat you in a lot of ways and are peaking at the right time. The Cubs head into Saturday looking to halt a 3-game losing streak. Their lineup has a lot of unrecognizable faces but it is probably the pitching that is the weaker side of the team right now. The Cubs have sunk to 27th in team ERA and even if they get a lead it is not all that safe with their bullpen. These teams are miles apart from where they were in the spring. Cubs vs Cardinals is always a good time but there might not be much juice to it this weekend. 

Lefty Jon Lester has been a surprisingly good pickup for the Cardinals. He has not given up more than 2 runs in 6 straight starts and has definitely contributed to St. Louis’ surge to the playoffs. This is also a good matchup for him. Adrian Sampson is just helping the Cubs get through the season. The journeyman is not part of their long-term plans, but he has been reasonably effective. This will be his 4th start of the season and he has not pitched against St. Louis in any role this year. Perhaps that will be of some advantage. The Cubs are still 1 game over .500 at Wrigley Field but that is not nearly enough of a reason to look at them in this spot. The markets must not be fans of Lester, because the premium is such that we can sensibly take the Cardinals on the run line. All streaks come to an end, but there are no indicators this is the spot. Take St. Louis.

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Game Totals Pick
Over

As the Cardinals have been on their hot streak, they have posted an 8-5 O/U record. They have also gone over the total in each of their last 3 games. Even though Lester has been pitching well it always feels like trouble is just around the corner because he isn’t dominating — he usually gives up a few runs.

The Cardinals are clicking on all cylinders and as long as they are winning games, the over is the best bet. Even more so on the road with both teams getting the full complement of at-bats. Wrigley Field generally favors the hitters so Saturday should be a good day for them even though there is not going to be as much intensity as there usually is for these rivals. Take the over.

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Matt Wiesenfeld
Run Line Pick
PHI Phillies Win -1.5

The Pirates got spanked 12-6 in the first game of the series. Those 6 runs are pretty good for a team that struggles to score as much as they do. Unfortunately they don’t pitch well, either; they are 28th in team ERA. It has been a struggle all season long in the rotation, as they are 30th in quality starts. That is not a good stat for any team but especially for a team that scores so little. They are playing from behind so much of the time and don’t have the power to play catchup. With every win, the Phillies get to extend their season. After this series they go to Atlanta, so they have a schedule that enables them to take the division if they close strongly. Catcher JT Realmuto was the big bat in the Thursday win. With Bryce Harper being so patient, and the guy that most teams do not want to let beat them, he is coming up in big situations and making the most of them. After Sal Perez, he is the best hitting catcher in the game. 

Wil Crowe has made 23 starts for Pittsburgh this season. Very few of them have been of quality but the Pirates just don’t have a lot of options. He did get a win in his last start at Miami but his ERA for September is a rough 8.25 even though he has not given up a home run in the month. Lefty Ranger Suarez has been a godsend for the Phillies. Since moving to the rotation he has made 10 starts and only once has he given up as many as 3 runs. He might not dominate but he has been their most consistent pitcher after Zach Wheeler. Philly is a heavy favorite on Saturday. I wouldn’t normally associate that kind of pricing with Suarez, but with the way he has been pitching and how bad the Pirates are it makes sense. When the Phillies are -200 or more they are just 5-4 this season, but 2 of those wins have come this week. This can be a third but the run line is the better play for the risk. Take Philadelphia.

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Game Totals Pick
Over 8.5

The total for this game is modest. Suarez should be able to have success against a light Pirates lineup, but we can have no confidence in Crowe to do the same in response. The Phillies’ bullpen has been the Achilles’ heel of the team all season and has an ERA of 5.04 at home. They have been better of late, but the worry is that a 5-1 game could turn into something like an 8-4 final.

The over looks good in this spot thanks to the Pirates’ lack of depth of arms, too. All of their solid ones have been shipped out already. Take the over.

Over 8.5 available at time of publishing. Playable to over 9.

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Matt Wiesenfeld
Money Line Pick
HOU Astros Win

Houston has built up enough of a cushion in the AL West that they might clinch the division this weekend if they play well. They have the top offense in the Majors thanks to one of the deepest lineups in the game. OF Yordan Alvarez is leading the team in homers but he might be resting this weekend as he deals with an injury. There is no reason to push him with the playoffs around the corner, especially with this team loaded with offense. While Houston is secure, Oakland’s playoff chances are not looking very good right now. Things might have been different but they were swept at home by Seattle to start the week. At this point, they are both far back and have too many teams to climb over to make it. They just have to take it one game at a time. The offense fell apart against the Mariners, they only scored 10 runs over the 4 games. That has to pick up over the weekend. 

After a couple of bad starts to start September Houston lefty Framber Valdez was great in his last outing, pitching 7 shutout innings against the Angels. It was on the road too. Valdez has been sneaky good for the Astros this season but he is also setting new innings highs with every game, so there is some fatigue risk. Sean Manaea is the most experienced starter the A’s have but he has not been able to help them snap out of their recent struggles. The A’s are just 2-5 in his last 7 starts and he has pitched only 5 innings in each of his last 2. They really need a command performance from him. Right now this one is lined even, and that creates a great opportunity for the visitors. Oakland might not have much left in the tank and Manaea may not be a difference-maker on the mound. With no premium on Houston, they are the team to back. Take Houston.

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Game Totals Pick
Over 8.5

As the top-scoring team in the league, it is no surprise that Houston has played more overs than unders this season. These teams have played 7 games in Oakland before this series and all 7 of them had gone over before 16 runs were scored on Friday night. I see no reason for this game to be an outlier.

Houston has plenty of offense and is loaded with righthanded bats that can give Manaea trouble. He tends to have a lot of very good games and ones where he is very easy to hit, with not much in the middle. This should be one of the latter. Take the over.

Over 8.5 available at time of publishing. Playable to over 9.

 

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Matt Wiesenfeld
Money Line Pick
BAL Orioles

The saying goes that every team wins 50, every team loses 50, and it’s what you do with the other 62 that counts. With just over a week left in the season, though, the Baltimore Orioles still haven’t won 50, and they blew a golden chance to get that win on Friday night after leading 5-3 in the 9th inning. But on Saturday they give the ball to 29-year-old rookie Chris Ellis, who’d made just one relief appearance prior to this year and did the same with Tampa Bay this season before finally getting a chance in the rotation with Baltimore. Ellis has taken advantage of his opportunity, pitching to a 2.82 ERA and holding opposing hitters to a .198 average in his 5 starts since joining the Orioles.

The Rangers, who’ve been equally bad all season, give Jordan Lyles a 29th start despite the fact that the right-hander hasn’t pitched anything close to a level worth that many chances. Lyles, who’s somehow remained employed at the highest level of the game for the past decade, has a 5.36 ERA this season, a number comparable with his career mark despite well over 1,000 big-league innings. There’s been no reason to have much confidence in Lyles at any time this season (or quite frankly, in his career), and even against Baltimore, that doesn’t change. Take the Orioles to finally collect win number 50 on Saturday.

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Game Totals Pick
Over 9.0

Ellis has pitched well but is very much an unknown quantity, and he’s shown a tendency to walk people at an above-average rate. The Orioles also have by far the worst bullpen ERA in baseball, and those relief woes were fully on display on Friday night, as they gave up 5 runs in the 9th inning to lose the game.

Lyles is one of the worst starting pitchers in all of baseball, certainly among ERA qualifiers, and an Orioles’ offense that is not their weakness (Cedric Mullins just joined the 30-30 club while also hitting .300 at the top of the order) should be able to get to him. Take the over.

Over 9 available at time of publishing. Playable at that number. 

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Dylan Ruhl
Money Line Pick
ATL Braves Win

On Saturday evening, the Atlanta Braves and the San Diego Padres will continue a 3-game set at Petco Park. Entering play, the Braves have won 5 of their last 6 games, and hold a slim 1.5-game lead in the National League East division. The Padres have only 3 wins in their last 10 contests and are virtually eliminated from this year’s postseason, sitting 7 games back of the second wild-card position with only 9 games remaining on the schedule. Huascar Ynoa will take the ball for Atlanta. San Diego will counter with Vince Velasquez. Across 81.1 innings in 2021, Ynoa has a 3.43 ERA, 4.17 xERA, and a 3.56 FIP. Since returning from the injured list in mid-August, he has posted a 3.93 ERA and a 3.30 FIP in 7 trips to the mound. In that span, he is striking out 25.5% of opposing hitters against an 8.1% walk-rate. His excellent 1.06 WHIP during this stretch is directly related to his proclivity to work ahead in the count, and his ability to limit hard contact. Expect Ynoa to have a strong outing this evening against a San Diego lineup that ranks 20th in OPS and 25th in ISO over the last 14 days.

Velasquez has been one of the most hittable pitchers in Major League Baseball in 2021 with a 6.23 ERA, 5.19 xERA, and a 5.65 FIP. In 2 starts since returning to the big-league club, he has posted an ugly 10.80 ERA and a 6.57 FIP. Atlanta’s offense ranks only 14th in OPS and 10th in ISO over the last 2 weeks of action, but they should be able to generate plenty of run-scoring opportunities against Velasquez. The Braves have the better starting pitcher, the better offense, and the better bullpen in this contest. They are also still playing for a postseason berth, whereas the Padres are confronting a season that could have been. Atlanta checks all the boxes for bettors tonight. They are a strong play on the money line.

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$35.20
Game Totals Pick
Under 8.5

Yesterday’s affair between these teams totaled just 4 runs. Max Fried was dominant, throwing a complete-game shutout in which he allowed only 3 San Diego hitters to reach base. Atlanta’s offense continued to be mediocre with 4 runs on 7 hits, only two of which went for extra bases. Petco Park is one of the most pitcher-friendly confines in the league.

Expect Ynoa to once again keep quiet a struggling Padres lineup. Velasquez is unlikely to do much of anything well, but he should be good enough to keep this game under the current market price, especially if his offense fails to give him much support, which has been a theme throughout the second half of the campaign. Take the under.

Under 9 available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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Nick Galaida
Run Line Pick
LA Dodgers Win -1.5

Los Angeles took game 1 on Friday, staying within 1 game of San Francisco in the NL West standings. On Saturday night, Zac Gallen (2-10, 4.53 ERA, 4.00 xFIP) gets the ball for Arizona opposite Clayton Kershaw (10-7, 3.27 ERA, 2.81 xFIP) for Los Angeles. Kershaw and the Dodgers are the recommended side to take Saturday’s contest by multiple runs as Los Angeles sports the starting pitching and offensive advantage. Kershaw has the ability to work 5-plus innings, limiting Arizona’s offensive output while being aided with run support. Kershaw has fared well against current Diamondback hitters in the past, sporting a dominant .196 BAA and .222 xBA in 198 plate appearances. Kershaw’s last start against Arizona on September 13 was efficient as he held the Diamondbacks to 1 run in 4.1 innings in his 1st start back from the IL. 

Since returning from the IL, Kershaw has logged 9.1 innings, allowing 2 runs on 7 hits. Kershaw’s command has been elite as he sports a 13:1 K:BB rate over those 2 starts. Expect another respectable start from Kershaw against an Arizona offense ranking 29th in OPS over the past month (.643 OPS.) Los Angeles’ offense figures to provide Kershaw with ample run support as the Dodgers enter Saturday night ranking 4% above the league average in wRC+. Gallen’s last start against Kershaw and the Dodgers on September 13 was a rough one. Gallen allowed 4 runs on 8 hits in 5.1 innings of work in Los Angeles’ 5-1 victory. Back the Dodgers to take Saturday night’s contest on the run line. 

Sportsbook
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Payout
Select Odds
$17.14
Game Totals Pick
Under 9.0

With a current total of 9 runs, the under is the recommendation in this matchup. While Los Angeles figures to put up their fair share of runs, to expect the Diamondbacks to generate 4+ runs is a tough ask. A total of 9 is a bit high considering it is already accounting for a high dosage of runs scored.

Chase Field ranks towards the bottom of the league in Park Factor home runs, favoring pitchers with a 0.78 HR rate. With fewer runs likely to be scored via the long ball, it’s unlikely both teams will get consecutive base hits to generate 9+ runs. Back the under in game 2.

Under 9 available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

Sportsbook
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Payout
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$18.70
Nick Musial
Run Line Pick
SEA Mariners Win -1.5

Tyler Anderson (7-9, 4.01 ERA) and the Seattle Mariners aim to extend their current 6-game winning streak against the Los Angeles Angeles on Saturday. The Mariners are 6-2 in the last 8 games against the Angels and in the last 8 starts for Anderson. With 5 of their final 8 games against the Angels, the Mariners must continue to win for any hopes of catching  the AL East teams from the final wild card spot. Seattle has won 6 consecutive road games and its 87-67 record ATS is the fourth best in the MLB.

Jaime Barria (2-4, 4.77 ERA) is scheduled to make his 11th start of the season in this divisional matchup. Los Angeles is 1-7 in the last 8 games overall and the last 8 starts for Barria. The Angels have also been defeated in 9 of the last 10 home games. A home record of 38-41 is the fifth-worst in the AL. Barria has just 1 win in 5 home starts this season and opponents are hitting precisely .300 when he takes the mound at home. Take the Mariners to cover the run line and extend their winning streak to 7.

Sportsbook
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Payout
Select Odds
$42.00
Game Totals PickBest Bet
Over 9.0

Each of the last 6 meetings in Los Angeles between these divisional rivals have surpassed the posted total. Both the Mariners (8th) and the Angels (6th) ranks among the top ten teams in the league whose games get over the total.  The over hits in 57% of the Mariners road games, which is the third highest percentage in the major leagues. 14 of the last 20 games for the Mariners have went over the given total. For Los Angeles, the over cashes in 61% of their home games, which is the highest percentage in all of baseball. The Angels have been outscored 17-1 in the last 3 starts for Barria and their bullpen ranks next-to-last in the AL with a 4.70 ERA.  Take the over in this divisional matchup tonight.

Sportsbook
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Payout
Select Odds
$58.57
Thomas Butler-Guerrero
Thomas Butler-Guerrero

MLB Picks

 The biggest theme of MLB betting is ‘opportunity.’ That’s because of the mammoth 162  regular-season games, plus the playoffs, meaning you can have are up to 15 MLB games a day to wager on. With so many games on offer each day, it means if your MLB picks get hot, you can really build up your bankroll quickly. It also means that if you have a not-so-great day at the sportsbook window, you can get right back on the horse the next day instead of dwelling on it for a week as you would with the NFL for example. We have MLB picks on every game, every day from opening day through to the World Series itself.

What Free MLB Expert Picks Do You Offer At Pickswise?

There are 2,430 total games in the MLB regular season and our expert MLB picks provide insight and analysis including an MLB Expert Pick for every game, if you’re looking for the best MLB bets today we have you covered.

MLB Games Today – Today’s Best MLB Picks

We offer our MLB expert picks throughout the 6-month MLB season with great success. We have you covered with Today’s MLB Picks, available for all of the MLB games today. Our MLB picks cover the marquee matchups as well as the under-the-radar plays away from the spotlights where you often find tremendous value. Pitching matchups, weather, injuries, travel schedule, and many other factors are all taken into account to find the best MLB picks in all of the MLB games today.

2021 MLB Picks

MLB picks provide a real test across such an action-packed and long season. The age-old cliche of it being a marathon and not a sprint is most applicable to MLB picks during the 2,430 game season. 

Our experts spend hours researching and analyzing all of the key information such as statistics, pitchers, team news, weather, travel, and more before making our MLB picks for every game of the 2021 MLB season.

With 2,340 regular season games, and an entire MLB postseason to breakdown, the level of detail required for long-term wagering success is huge. That’s where our experts shine, we do the research so you don’t have to, bringing you a full game preview and the best free MLB picks for every game of the 2021 season. 

Free Money line MLB Picks 

The most popular way to bet on MLB is via the Moneyline. This means games are basically handicapped based on each of the team’s starting pitchers. “Sure thing” pitchers such as Jacob deGrom, Max Scherzer, and Clayton Kershaw are going to cost you, often requiring a $200 or more wager to make $100 (-200). Finding an even pitching matchup or one of those stud pitchers that may be fatigued and going against them is the best way to make money in MLB betting. Our free MLB money line picks help you identify these profitable matchups for every game of the baseball season.

MLB Picks Against The Spread – Run Line MLB Picks

The spread in baseball is known as ‘the run line’. Many bettors feel there isn’t as much value laying -200 on an all-star caliber pitcher because even elite pitchers can turn the game over to his bullpen who will subsequently blow the game and cost them the win. Therefore betting on the run line (-1.5 or +1.5) is a great way to find better MLB prices compared to the Moneyline. A Clayton Kershaw pick on the ML (win outright) for example might be -240 but betting that same game to win by 2 runs or more (run line) could be priced at -120. MLB run line betting works in the opposite way too. There are a lot of 1-run games in baseball and betting on a team +1.5 runs is a great way to string together wagering wins if you think teams can keep games close.

Free Total Runs MLB Picks

There’s no other sport where the stadiums and the weather are so crucial to the scoring as the MLB. This is why our free MLB picks on the totals see almost as much wagering from the public as each side of the game itself.

The dimensions of the MLB parks are also different and need to be factored in when making your MLB picks. Coors Field for example is located in the high altitude of Denver, Colorado which means it’s not unlikely to see scores similar to 11-8 three or four times a week. Minute Maid Park in Houston for example has a left-field wall that is just 315 feet from home plate compared to AT&T Park in San Francisco that has a right-center field alley of 421 feet.

Weather is a major factor when picking our MLB picks today. The ball travels better on 92 degree Summer days in Arlington, Texas, or when the wind is blowing out to left field at 23 MPH at Wrigley Field in Chicago. So before you head to the window make sure you check the weather report to give your ticket the best chance of cashing, particularly with those MLV Totals picks.

Our experts do all of this research and analysis for you and our accompanying game preview will detail all of the key factors in making our MLB Totals Picks for each game. 

Alternate Free Expert MLB Picks

There are numerous ways to have success betting on MLB. For example, if you are confident in a team’s starting pitching but have reservations on their bullpen and relievers, sportsbooks offer the first 5 innings lines.

Also if you are really confident in a particular matchup you can bet on alternate run lines or taking a team to win by -2.5 or even -3.5 runs with increasing payouts. Another fun way to essentially bet on all MLB games of the day at once is with a grand salami wager, in which you’re wagering on the over/under for total runs scored in all games on a given day. There’s plenty of fun to be had on a daily basis with our MLB picks.

MLB Schedule 2021

The 2021 MLB Schedule sees a welcome to return to somewhat a normal baseball season. While fans and attendances will remain limited on a state-by-state basis, baseball is back! And so is the full schedule of games.

The 2021 Major League baseball season will begin on April 1st, 2021 with all 30 Major League teams playing on opening day for the fourth consecutive year. Just five games are scheduled to be played on Friday, April 2nd but the first weekend of the season is packed, with a full 15 games on Saturday 3rd and 13 games on Sunday 4th. The 2021 MLB Schedule is certainly starting with a bang.

The inter-league schedule for 2021 will see the AL West vs. NL West, AL East vs. NL East, and AL Central vs. NL Central. One key takeaway from the inter-league schedule is that the New York Mets will host the New York Yankees at Citi Field across September 10th-12, 2021 – the first time the two New York sides will play each other on September 11th as the league observes the 20th anniversary.

The 2021 MLB playoffs are scheduled to start on October 5th, with a World Series start date planned for Tuesday 26th October.

Pickswise will provide expert analysis on every game of the 2021 MLB Schedule, including who we have winning the world series in 2021. 

2021 MLB Playoff Picks

In addition to free daily MLB picks, we also provide insight into MLB playoffs betting. From wild card ‘play-in’ matchups to Game 7 of the World Series, there’s nothing quite like the excitement of October baseball. In the MLB playoffs, pitching rotations are shortened and home-field becomes an even bigger advantage but it’s important to make sure the lines reflect that. Our experts analyze every playoff game and give you their expert MLB picks to help you make the best selections in the MLB Playoffs to finish off the season strongly and in profit.

2021 World Series Picks

The World Series is the prize in which all 30 teams dream of winning at the start of the season, but some teams have a better chance of winning it than others. You can wager on the World Series winner as soon as the previous season concludes and the odds will fluctuate throughout the offseason in reaction to trades and both player and team news. You can also wager on your World Series picks at any stage throughout the season, with the world series odds also updated in reaction to how the season pans out. Our expert handicappers will provide analysis and expert world series picks before the season as well as highlighting value picks throughout the 2021 MLB season.

Free Baseball Picks Today

Baseball is a notoriously difficult sport to bet on day today. Teams will typically play each other in mini-series over a few days, and it’s common to see the sides split these games. Trying to find out which team is primed on any given day in a league built around parity is no easy task. To make the most informed decision about any matchup or wager requires a lot of time and research ahead of making our MLB baseball picks. Our expert handicappers will consider everything from pitching lineups, bullpen strength, the number of days on the road, player injuries, the stadium, the weather, and a whole host of advanced statistical models before making our baseball picks. With 2,340 regular-season games and up to 15 on any given day, that’s a lot of hours’ worth of research for any one person. That’s where we at Pickswise come to the fore. Our team of baseball, experts do the research for you. All of our baseball picks and free and come with full reasoning, analysis, and a confidence rating. Check out our MLB Best Bets page for our favorite plays today

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