MLB Picks

Not many people expected the Royals and Tigers to both be well above .500 a month into the season, nor indeed 4 teams in the AL Central to be there. That makes this weekend’s series in Detroit an important one. The Motor City hosted the NFL draft on Thursday, but let’s not sleep on baseball. I like the Royals to come away with the first game in this series on Friday, even though the home-standing Tigers are favored.

Both teams send B-list pitchers to the mound, but guys who are having strong seasons thus far despite lacking headliner status. Seth Lugo of the Royals has benefitted from facing the White Sox twice, but he has given the Royals a strong start in every outing. Reese Olson of the Tigers has been excellent in 3 of his 4 starts, even if he has been a hard-luck loser each time. The difference here to me is that the Royals hit right-handed pitching much better than the Tigers do, and I expect KC to come away with the lead after 5 or 6 innings. With a fresh bullpen, Kansas City should be able to lock it down from there. I’m playing the slight underdog Royals on Friday.

Royals ML at +100 available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The Blue Jays return to their home turf to face the Los Angeles Dodgers for what promises to be an exciting matchup. Coming off a challenging series against the Royals in which they lost 3 out of 4 games and scored only 10 runs, the Blue Jays are eager to turn things around. Meanwhile, the Dodgers swept the Nationals in their recent 3-game series and are determined to maintain their momentum.

Both teams have seen improvements in their pitching of late. Over the last 7 days the Blue Jays have posted a team ERA of 2.41 with a WHIP of 1.23, while the Dodgers have recorded a team ERA of 2.67 and a WHIP of 1.24.  However, the standout difference lies in the lineup strength. The Dodgers have one of the toughest lineups in the majors, with a robust .269 team batting average and .784 OPS. In contrast, the Blue Jays have struggled offensively with a .231 team batting average and a .684 OPS.

On the mound the Dodgers will rely on Gavin Stone, who holds a 1-1 record this season with a 6.00 ERA. The Blue Jays will counter with Chris Bassitt, who is 2-3 with a 3.90 ERA. While the Blue Jays may have a slight pitching advantage, the Dodgers lineup still poses a significant challenge. Despite Toronto’s efforts, the Dodgers’ offensive power is likely to test their pitching staff and should be able to score enough runs to secure a victory in today’s matchup at the Rogers Centre. 

Dodgers ML at -120 available at time of publishing. Playable to -130.

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Two of the best pitchers in the league are set to face off in today’s matchup.  The Cubs are starting Shota Imanaga, who is 3-0 with a 0.84 ERA; the Red Sox are countering with Kutter Crawford, who is 1-0 with a 0.66 ERA this season. The Cubs come into this series with excitement after their recent sweep against the Houston Astros, while the Red Sox aim to bounce back after dropping 2 out of 3 against the Guardians.  

Both Imanaga and Crawford haven’t gone deep into the game in any of their starts this season.  They both average around 5 innings per start this season, putting emphasis on how their respective bullpens will fare. Boston’s bullpen has a 3.40 ERA, slightly edging out the Cubs’ bullpen with a 3.71 ERA.

Batting averages for both teams are relatively close, with the Cubs sitting at .245 and the Red Sox at .236. The key factor in today’s game could come down to which pitcher makes the first mistake. While the Cubs may hold a slight edge overall, the home advantage for the Red Sox could tip the scales in their favor. Look for the Red Sox to capitalize and secure a victory in the opening game of the series.

Red Sox ML at -110 available at time of publishing. Playable at that number. 

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The St. Louis Cardinals are off a home series win against the Arizona Diamondbacks. The offense has been a letdown this season. They are second to last in home runs and near the bottom in scoring overall, too. That is not good enough to carry a pitching staff that is in the lower half of the league. First baseman Paul Goldschmidt is hitting just .200, continuing the decline we saw last season. The New York Mets won on Wednesday to avoid a sweep at the San Francisco Giants. It was the first time in 3 games that they scored more than a couple of runs. Shortstop Francisco Lindor hit a couple of homers in the win, but he is still struggling overall. He is 30 now and I am wondering how much he has left to be honest. 

When St. Louis starter Miles Mikolas is at his best, he is inducing soft contact. When he is at his worst he is getting hit all over the yard. It has been more of the latter in 2024. In 3 of 5 starts he has given up 5 earned runs. Meanwhile, the Mets’ Jose Butto has no decisions this season but he has pitched really well. Best of all, the Mets are 3-0 in his starts. The 21 Ks in just 16.0 innings definitely plays. 

The Mets are just modest favorites at home. I like what I am seeing from Butto a lot and the feeling around the team has changed a lot after that tough start. The opposite is true for the Cardinals. I see the offensive talent but there has not been much production. I do not want to bet on it suddenly coming on the road. 

Mets ML at -135 available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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Cleveland has the most wins in the majors so far, which is pretty shocking. The Guardians have had a very favorable schedule for sure, but you still have to win the games. This level of success is not sustainable and a series against Atlanta — which has the best record in the majors — will likely put them in their place. Third baseman Jose Ramirez has been great but the offense is still a question mark. Atlanta is the only team that was expected to be elite this season that is actually coming through. The Braves can beat you so many ways and just ripped through a series against the Marlins, sweeping and outscoring them 12-3. Outfielder Ronald Acuna Jr. only has 1 homer, but with the team winning there is not much to worry about. 

Logan Allen is 3-0 and the Guardians are 4-1 in his starts, but with an ERA of 5.06 something has to give. He can pitch better than that, and at the same time he might not get as much support. Cleveland has scored at least 5 runs in all 5 of his starts. The Braves counter with fellow lefty Chris Sale. Their gamble on him appears to be paying off. He can still make batters swing and miss and when he keeps the ball in the ballpark he is still very effective. He has pitched 7.0 inning in each of his last 2 starts, which is encouraging. 

Cleveland’s great record to start the season is not fooling the markets much. The Guardians are heavy underdogs, and with Allen opposite on the mound that makes a ton of sense. Unless you are looking to get very creative, Atlanta on the run line is the way to play this game. The Braves are 7-2 when bigger than -200 favorites and only a couple of those wins have been by just a run.

Braves -1.5 available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The city of Chicago had a moment to celebrate last night after the Bears drafted quarterback Caleb Williams with the #1 overall pick, but as far as baseball in concerned, the White Sox have not been the Chicago team to root for this season. The White Sox are just 3-22 to open their season and are on pace to have the fewest wins by any team in the Modern Era. Chicago is currently on a 7-game losing streak, 1-13 across its last 14 games and 16 of its 19 losses in April have been by multiple runs. The offense is averaging just 2.24 runs per game with a team slash line of .192/.266/.292, and the pitching staff owns the second-highest ERA in the majors at 5.26.

It’s not clear how the White Sox turn this around, but they will put their best foot forward this weekend as they host the Tampa Bay Rays for a 3-game series. Tampa Bay is 13-13 on the year and coming off a 7-5 win over the Detroit Tigers on Wednesday. The Rays benefit from a travel day yesterday, whereas the White Sox will play their 8th game in as many days and won’t get a day off until May 2. Zach Eflin will take the ball for the Rays tonight and is posting a 3.68 ERA across his first 5 starts. Eflin has been highly efficient thus far, with 3 of his last 4 starts lasting at least 6.0 innings while throwing fewer than 85 pitches. He has also tossed back-to-back shutouts against the Angels and Yankees and has surrendered just 2 walks across 29.1 innings.

Countering for the White Sox is 29-year-old right-hander Chris Flexen, who is now pitching for his 3rd different ballclub in the last 2 years. Flexen’s first 3 appearances this season came out of the starting rotation, but his last 2 have come out of the bullpen — meaning tonight will be his first start since April 12. Although it’s just a small sample size, Flexen was not sharp in any of his starts — giving up a total of 13 earned runs across just 13.1 innings of work. The underlying metrics aren’t encouraging, either, with Flexen posting a 5.79 xERA just one season after posting a 6.20 xERA and 6.86 actual ERA across 102.1 innings in 2023. The Rays have the better lineup, starting pitcher and a well-rested bullpen heading into this game. I’ll back Tampa Bay to win this game by multiple runs.

Rays -1.5 at -135 available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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When the Cincinnati Reds (14-11) and Texas Rangers (13-13) meet on Friday night, the smart money could be on the over 9 runs with 2 inconsistent pitching staffs facing potent lineups. The Reds’ offense has been red hot, averaging 5.08 runs per game and led by the electrifying Elly De La Cruz (1.051 OPS). However, starter Graham Ashcraft has really scuffled with a 5.24 ERA and propensity for allowing homers — which could spell trouble against Texas’ power bats. The Rangers counter with Nathan Eovaldi, who has been decent with a 3.30 ERA. But he is coming off an erratic 6-walk outing that illustrated his lack of control at times. Texas’ bullpen has also been a weakness, ranking in the bottom third of MLB in ERA.

With no truly reliable pitching options, both offenses could be poised to produce runs in bunches. Adolis Garcia anchors a Rangers lineup that makes consistent hard contact, while the Reds have been overly aggressive on the bases with 45 steals already. Given the combination of shaky pitching, powerful lineups and the hitter-friendly confines of Globe Life Field, Over 9 looks incredibly enticing in this matchup. I’m backing the offenses to flex their muscles and produce a high-scoring affair in Arlington.

Over 9 at +100 available at time of publishing. Playable to -110.

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Following a successful road stretch, the Milwaukee Brewers are back home to face the New York Yankees — who are coming off a split series against the Oakland Athletics. Today the Brewers will rely on right-hander Colin Rea to maintain their momentum. Rea holds a 2-0 record this season with a stellar 2.08 ERA. He will face off against Yankees right-hander Luis Gil, who is 1-1 with a 2.75 ERA. Both pitchers have shown promise, but the real test lies in how they handle the potent bats of their opponents.

Rea has historically fared well against the Yankees, limiting them to just 2 hits in 16 at-bats. On the other hand, Gil will face this Brewers lineup for the first time and will have to find ways to slow down players like William Contreras and Willy Adames. The Brewers rank 3rd in the league in batting average with .264, while the Yankees sit at 17th with .239. Pitching-wise, Milwaukee boasts a strong staff — ranking 4th in the league with a team ERA of 2.32 — while the Yankees are close behind in 6th with a team ERA of 2.53. With the Brewers’ recent offensive success and the advantage of playing at home, they hold the upper hand in this matchup. Look for Milwaukee to secure a victory in the opener of this series against the Yankees.

Brewers ML at +105 available at the time of publishing. Playable to -105.

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The San Diego Padres (14-13) return home looking to rebound after a crushing collapse against the Rockies on Thursday. They will have the perfect opportunity Friday night when they host the Philadelphia Phillies (16-10) at Petco Park. San Diego squandered a 9-4 8th-inning lead in Thursday’s 10-9 loss, coughing up 6 runs in the final 2 frames. It was a bitter defeat, but one the talented Padres should use as motivation. Back at home, they’ll be determined to get back on track against Philadelphia. The Padres have the offensive firepower to give Aaron Nola problems. Fernando Tatis Jr. and Manny Machado anchor a lineup that ranks 5th in the majors in OPS (.799). Nola has been unhittable lately with a 1.67 ERA over his last 4 starts, but San Diego’s patience and pop could cool him off.

On the mound for the Padres is Joe Musgrove, who has fared well historically against the Phillies despite his 5.74 ERA this year. Over 5 career starts he is 2-1 with a 3.00 ERA versus Philadelphia. Musgrove’s splitter has been an effective putaway pitch, holding the current Phillies roster to a .125 average against it. With the sting of the Colorado collapse surely motivating them, look for the Padres to play with an edge. Their combination of starting pitching and explosive bats position them well to bounce back and take the series opener from the streaking Phillies. I’m backing San Diego on the money line.

Padres ML at -105 available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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