MLB Picks

It’s Game One of today’s doubleheader between the St. Louis Cardinals and the Philadelphia Phillies. The Cardinals are switching up their pitching matchup a little. Sonny Gray was supposed to face Jesus Luzardo in yesterday’s matchup, but instead, it’s going to be Erick Fedde who’ll get the start this afternoon. Fedde is 3-3 with a 3.86 ERA this season and in 46.2 innings pitched, striking out 29 and has a 1.31 WHIP. For the Phillies, Jesus Luzardo will get the start who’s 3-0 with a 2.11 ERA and has a 1.21 WHIP on the season.

St. Louis has been one of the hottest teams in baseball, posting .740 OPS with 16 home runs and averaging 4.8 runs per game over their last 14 games. While their offense hasn’t necessarily been overwhelming for their opponents, their pitching has been outstanding. Over that same stretch, the Cardinals have a team ERA of 2.69 and a 1.19 WHIP. For the Phillies last 14 games, they’ve been hitting the ball slightly better than the Cardinals, posting a .781 OPS with 20 homers and averaging 5.3 runs per game. Fedde has struggled against the Phillies throughout his career, going 2-7 with a 5.98 ERA in 13 appearances. I don’t think those numbers will bother him as the last time he faced the Phillies was back in 2022, and with the Cardinals betting the hotter team as of late and at plus money, I think there’s value here. Look for the Cardinals to get the job done today and make it 10 wins in a row. 

Cardinals vs Phillies prediction: Cardinals ML (+155) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The Brewers and Guardians wrap up their series on Wednesday afternoon as the homestanding Guards look to make it a sweep. The Brewers have yet to score in this series, losing 5-0 and 2-0. The Brewers in general are a hard team to get behind right now, as they are mediocre at best. The offense is sluggish, the bullpen is rough and their rotation is in shambles. The Guardians are the more complete team, and I am going with Cleveland to win the game and close out the series.

On the mound is Gavin Williams for the Guards. He is a serviceable starter who has strung together a couple of good outings in a row. He will face Logan Henderson, a 23-year-old who will be making his 2nd Big League start (again, the rotation is in shambles). He was excellent in his first outing, fanning 9 guys over 6 innings of 1-run baseball. The Guardians do not strike out a lot though. An issue for me here is that the Brewers have the 4th-worst slugging percentage in the league against right-handed pitching, and their bullpen has been unreliable as well. There are just a lot of things that can go wrong here for the Brew Crew, so I’m going to trust the Guardians.

Brewers vs Guardians prediction: Guardians ML (-150) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The Diamondbacks and Giants are set to wrap up a 3-game series at Oracle Park on Wednesday afternoon. The teams split the first 2 games of the series, with Arizona winning 2-1 on Monday, and San Francisco winning by a score of 10-6 yesterday. The starting pitching matchup in this one pits Arizona’s Eduardo Rodriguez against San Francisco’s Jordan Hicks. Both pitchers have seen their fair share of struggles this season, which means we could have a high-scoring affair on our hands.

Both Rodriguez and Hicks have allowed 3 or more earned runs in 6 of their 8 starts. That has resulted in Rodriguez owning a 6.86 ERA so far this season, while Hicks’ ERA sits at 5.82. Hicks has been issuing less walks lately, but if he reverts back to having some control issues, Arizona is more than capable of capitalizing. Furthermore, both bullpens could be a bit spent. Neither team has had an off day so far in May, and both bullpens were utilized often last night in a 10-6 game. All in all, look to the over in this one.

Diamondbacks vs Giants prediction: Over 8 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to -115.

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Yesterday’s game didn’t go as planned for the Yankees, but the loss shouldn’t raise too much concern. New York is averaging 6.8 runs per game over its last 13 and will look to get the offense back on track today as they face Luis Castillo. As for the Mariners, yesterday’s win may have been the spark they needed to get things moving in the right direction again as they’ve lost six of their last ten games. 

Luis Castillo will get the start for the Mariners who’s 3-3 with a 3.95 ERA this season. In his eight starts, Castillo has thrown 43.1 innings, striking out 33 with a 1.38 WHIP. Taking the mound for the Yankees is Will Warren, who holds a 2-2 record with a 4.75 ERA. Both bullpens have been heavily utilized in this series, which could be troublesome for the Yankees as Warren doesn’t typically go deep into the game. However, Warren is coming off his best start of the season against the Athletics where he threw 7.1 innings, giving up just one earned run and struck out seven. The same can be said about Castillo as he only threw 7 innings once in his eight starts this year. Despite yesterday’s loss, the Yankees are still hitting the ball better than the Mariners right now. I like the Yankees in this stop to secure the series win before heading back home. 

Yankees vs Mariners prediction: Yankees ML (-120) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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In this game, we will see the 2nd leg of a doubleheader between the St. Louis Cardinals and the Philadelphia Phillies. The 2 teams played a previous series in St. Louis, where the Cardinals were able to win 2 out of 3 games. On the mound in this one, we will see Sonny Gray of the Cardinals and Aaron Nola of the Phillies. Gray is coming off a fantastic start where he went 7 innings, giving up only 2 hits and no runs against the Pittsburgh Pirates. When Gray starts the game, the Cardinals are 6-2. On the opposite side, the Phillies are 2-6 when Nola Starts the game. Nola has pitched 46 innings, giving up 47 hits and 25 runs with a 4.89 ERA. Given Nola’s struggles, they may rely on the bullpen for the win in this one. This is risky given the fact that the Phillies bullpen has given up 69 runs on 134 hits and a 4.62 ERA.

Looking at the batting, the Cardinals have the 6th-best batting average in the league and have the 7th-most hits. The Phillies have the 7th-best batting average and the 9th-most hits in the league. These hitting statistics remain consistent over the past week, where we have seen the Cardinals score 28 runs and the Phillies score 26 runs. As we can see, both teams can hit the ball well and score plenty of runs, which means our edge should come in the form of pitching. The previous games between these teams have been decided by the starting pitchers. The only game that the Phillies won against the Cardinals was when Miles Mikolas started, who is known to struggle on the mound at times. Today, we will have to give the edge to the Cardinals and Gray with the problems we have seen from Nola this year. Topping it off, the Cardinals are riding a 9-game win streak coming into today, giving us no reason to doubt them. I am taking the Cardinals to win the final game of this series.

Cardinals vs Phillies Game 2 prediction: Cardinals ML (+115) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The Detroit Tigers look to complete the series sweep over the Boston Red Sox with an interesting pitching matchup on the bump for Game 3. Red Sox No. 13 ranked prospect Hunter Dobbins (2.78 ERA, 1.19 WHIP) takes the mound for the visitors fresh off his best start of the season last time out. Dobbins is still unproven and faces a tough matchup against a surging Tigers’ offense. Detroit ranks top-8 in both BA and wRC+ against right-handed pitching this season and currently ranks atop the league with a 138 wRC+ over the last 14 days. For reference, Boston ranks 17th with a 99 mark in the same time frame.

There are no questions surrounding Detroit starter and defending Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal (2.08 ERA, 0.88 WHIP). He’s been incredible, surrendering only 2 ER in his last 19.0 IP while also tallying three shutout starts thus far. He falls in the 90th percentile or better in practically every major category ranking from strikeout rate to pitching run value. Behind him in relief is one of the top-3 bullpens in terms of combined ERA which should give Detroit the advantage on the bump practically all game. With all things considered, I’m backing Skubal and a surging Tigers’ offense to keep things rolling and cover the run line against Boston.

Red Sox vs Tigers prediction: Detroit -1.5 (+100) available at time of publishing. Playable to -115.

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Clay Holmes began his MLB career in the Pittsburgh Pirates organization, and today he faces off against them as a starter for the New York Mets. Through 8 starts in his new role for his new club the right-hander has found success, pitching to a 2.74 ERA while recording 44 strikeouts in 42.2 innings pitched. His elite ground ball rate also allows for efficiency, and he should pitch well against a weak Pirates lineup in this matchup today. Pittsburgh ranks just 29th in wOBA against right-handed pitching in the month of May and their strikeout numbers have taken a hit recently as well.

Bailey Falter will start for the Pirates, and he draws a far tougher matchup against a Mets lineup that enters today in good form against southpaw pitching. New York has the 4th best wOBA and a 127 wRC+ against left-handers this year and Falter is not someone I have a ton of confidence in. Falter is a low strikeout rate arm to begin with, and the Mets lineup specializes in putting the ball into play which should lead to plenty of scoring opportunities in this matchup.

New York Mets vs Pittsburgh Pirates predictions: Mets -1.5 (-125) available at time of publishing. Playable to -130 odds.

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Fresh off a shocking 11-1 victory in the series opener on Tuesday, the upstart Athletics will take on the World Series favorite Los Angeles Dodgers in the second of a 3-game series on Wednesday. The Athletics have certainly overachieved to this point in the season, and that’s showed in some of their victories over playoff-caliber teams. However, I’m expecting them to come back down to Earth a bit in Wednesday’s contest, especially since pitching has been the issue for the Athletics in 2025. This A’s staff is just 25th in team ERA to this point (4.73), while also sitting at 27th in hits allowed and WHIP. The struggles should continue for starter Gunnar Hoglund on Wednesday, a pitcher whose advanced metrics and batted-ball data suggest that a bit of regression is coming compared to his actual results this season. Facing a Dodgers lineup that’s loaded with talent and professional hitters from top to bottom is not exactly the antidote for a shaky stable of pitchers, and I could certainly see Hoglund and the Athletics bullpen struggling in this one.

On the other side, Los Angeles is sending Yoshinobu Yamamoto to the mound, which is typically a great sign for the Dodgers. The Japanese ace is in the midst of an outstanding start to the season (1.80 ERA, 30.5% strikeout rate, 31.7% whiff rate, 61.7% ground-ball rate). Unlike last season, the Dodgers’ ace has hit the ground running and has only surrendered 9 earned runs over his first 45 innings pitched, while striking out 53 in the process. Yamamoto has been tremendous against any level of competition, so he certainly shouldn’t struggle against this Athletics lineup. All things considered, let’s take the Dodgers to find the win column and by at least 2 runs at home. 

Athletics vs Dodgers prediction: Dodgers -1.5 (-130) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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