The Virginia Cavaliers and Miami Hurricanes will square off in an ACC battle on Thursday night. Both teams have experienced some early struggles this season, and both enter with records of 2-2. Miami was able to crush Central Connecticut State 69-0 last Saturday. It was a much-needed tune-up game, but Virginia poses a much bigger threat. QB Brennan Armstrong leads the nation with 426.3 passing yards per game. He also has 13 touchdowns to just 3 interceptions. The Canes are surrendering the second-most passing yards per game in the ACC (245.8). This seems to be a favorable matchup for Armstrong. At the time of publishing on Monday, Miami’s QB situation is still in flux. D’Eriq King missed Saturday’s game with a shoulder injury, and his status for Thursday is still unknown. Jake Garcia and Tyler Van Dyke split time last Saturday, combining for 417 yards and 5 touchdowns. However, they are both inexperienced and posting solid numbers against Central Connecticut State should be taken with a grain of salt.

These teams are used to playing close games against one another. The last 3 meetings have been decided by just 15 total points. Miami is just 1-6 ATS in their last 7 home games going back to last season. In addition, Virginia is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 meetings with Miami. Take the points with Virginia.

Virginia +4 available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

Virginia’s passing offense has been nothing short of prolific so far this season. Armstrong leads the nation in passing yards per game, and he seems to have a favorable matchup against a weak Miami passing defense.  Armstrong can also make plays with his legs. That makes him even more of a headache of opposing defenses.  Virginia’s offense knows how to move the ball down the field, but their defense has been allowing opposing offenses to do the same. The Cavalier defense is giving up 6.3 yards per play, which is the worst mark in the ACC and ranks 113th in the nation.

Miami ranks 83rd and Virginia ranks 86th in the nation in terms of points per game allowed. Both defenses have had their struggles this season, and both of these offenses are dynamic and can create big plays at any moment. In addition, the defenses have only a few days to prepare for this one on a short week. Don’t be surprised if we see points early and often. Roll with the over.

Over 62 available at time of publishing. Playable to over 63.

On Friday night, the Tulsa Golden Hurricane will play host to the Houston Cougars in an AAC matchup. Tulsa finally got in the win column last weekend when they defeated Arkansas State by 7. The Golden Hurricane have had difficulty stopping opposing offenses thus far, as they fail to rank in the top 75 in the country in any major statistical category on the defensive side of the ball. In their Week 4 win, Tulsa allowed 34 points and 321 passing yards, while also having 10 penalties as a team. Houston is 3-1 on the season, their latest being a victory against Navy. Unlike the Golden Hurricane, the Cougars have something to be reliant upon in their defense. The opposition has averaged just 116 passing yards per game and a little over 16 points versus Houston in 2021. Offensively, quarterback Clayton Tune has displayed his accuracy as he boasts a completion percentage north of 71%.

The Golden Hurricane were one of the most consistent and productive defenses in the nation last season, but it’s clear this is a much different squad. Neither team has really been impressive, so expect this to be a close contest that goes down to the wire. Tulsa hasn’t had much luck against Houston in recent memory, as they’re 1-5 straight up in their last 6 matchups. Being favored in this one, it’s hard to lay the points with Tulsa. The Cougars can keep it within a field goal, if not escaping with an outright win.

Houston +3.5 available at time of publishing. Playable to Houston +3.

The Tulsa offense definitely looks good on paper, and their numbers are rather impressive too. However, they haven’t quite faced an opposing defense like they will against Houston. The Golden Hurricane’s bread and butter is their air attack, but that falls right into play for this stingy Cougars secondary. And although Tulsa’s defense isn’t one of their strengths, the Houston offense hasn’t really been outstanding either, averaging under 363 yards of total offense per game. 

When this game is played at Tulsa, it’s normally a pretty low-scoring affair. In their last 7 matchups against one another in the Sooner state, 6 have gone under the total. That seems to be a theme for Golden Hurricane home games, as the under is 5-2 in their last 7 when that’s the case. This matchup is “bad offense vs bad defense” when one team has the ball, and “good offense vs good defense” when the other does. With a possibility of rain in the weather forecast aiding the argument, take the under with confidence.

Under 56.5 available at time of publishing. Playable to under 55.5.

With fans back in full force this season, week-night home games have been a hornets’ nest for road favorites. This week’s slate features a pivotal Big Ten home opener for the Maryland Terrapins, as they host the Iowa Hawkeyes in College Park. Both teams enter the contest with unblemished records, but they have each found their way to 4-0 starts in different fashions. Iowa is winning games with defense and turnover luck. The Hawkeyes have received plenty of praise for their undefeated start, but Iowa has undoubtedly benefited from an extremely favorable turnover margin to beat Indiana (two interceptions returned for touchdowns) and in-state rival Iowa State. Spencer Petras struggles to throw the ball more than 5 yards down the field, and the Hawkeyes are well outside of the top 100 nationally in yards per play. Iowa runs the ball on well more than half of their snaps, but that may play into the hands of the Maryland defense. The Terps are inside the top 30 in the nation in rushing yards allowed and the defense as a whole appears to be much improved compared to past seasons. On the offensive side, Maryland is as explosive as ever, boasting an elite passing attack with Taulia Tagovailoa at the helm of the offense. Tagovailoa is completing 75% of his passes to go along with 10 touchdowns and just one interception on the season, and the Terps have the talent at wide receiver to break a couple of big plays against this stingy Hawkeyes defense.    

This is a great spot to fade Iowa. The Hawkeyes’ offense is untrustworthy at best and they won’t be able to get by against competent offenses by trying to eat clock and hoping their defense can force a key turnover. It’s also a possible look-ahead spot, with Iowa hosting Penn State next week in a game that will garner a lot of national media attention. If Petras is forced to make plays in the passing game, we could definitely see another week-night home underdog cover the number. Take the points with Maryland, and sprinkle a little on the moneyline as well. 

Maryland +4 available at time of publishing. Playable to Maryland +3.

Regardless of a preference of the side in this contest, the total play is predicated on your belief in Iowa’s offense. The Hawkeyes have cashed 4 consecutive unders to open the 2021 season and while the oddsmakers have adjusted accordingly, it still may not be enough. If Iowa is to win and/or cover the number in this game, the Hawkeyes will have to do so by establishing the run and dominating the time of possession and field-position battle. Long drives that end in field goals can be expected, and Maryland’s offense could be bottled up if the Terps start with a long field on repeated occasions.

If Maryland is able to keep things close or even win the game outright, the Terps will have done so by forcing Petras into mistakes and containing the Iowa ground game. The game script in either direction points to this being a 24-20 or 23-21 type of outing. Take the under. 

Under 46 available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.