One month ago, UCLA and Washington were trending in completely different directions. Chip Kelly’s team blew Hawaii off the field to open the regular season before announcing itself as a serious PAC-12 contender with a dominant victory over LSU. Since that point, it has been a much different season for the Bruins. UCLA fell to Fresno State in an instant classic before falling to Arizona State 2 weeks later for the Bruins’ first conference loss in 2021. Washington came into the season with considerable preseason expectations but promptly fell flat with poor offensive performances in losses to Montana and Michigan to open the campaign. The Huskies are slowly climbing their way out of that early hole, but things are still a work in progress. Washington has not got anything out of its passing game with Dylan Morris at quarterback, and while the Huskies defense has been above average in terms of points allowed they are still surrendering nearly 5 yards per carry on the ground. That doesn’t bode well against a UCLA side that is clearly a run-first team.   

The passing game for UCLA is a serious concern. Dorian Thompson-Robinson has been banged-up, and the Huskies should be able to hold down the Bruins receivers. But judging by UCLA’s dominance on the ground and given Washington’s struggles against the run, that may not be an issue for Kelly’s team. This line is a little disrespectful to what the Bruins can be at their best this season. Take the road underdog in an upset special in Seattle. 

UCLA moneyline available at +110 at time of publishing. Playable to UCLA +105.

UCLA can absolutely rip off explosive plays in bunches on the ground, and it’s more likely than not that the Bruins will break off a few on Saturday too. The Huskies go about scoring a little differently. Washington is 84th in the nation in total offense, averaging just 5.3 yards per play. This doesn’t place the Huskies far away from the likes of Arizona, Northwestern, New Mexico State, and other powerhouses near the bottom of the FBS offensive rankings. Washington also does not play fast, ranking near the middle of the country in pace of play and total plays per game.

The Huskies will have their moments, but could struggle to string together consistent scoring drives in this one. And while UCLA has a dynamic rushing attack, the Bruins’ extremely limited passing game has hindered their peak offensive performance of late. That may very well continue against a strong Washington secondary. Take the under.   

Under 54.5 available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

In the final major game of the Saturday slate, the nightcap will feature the Arizona State Sun Devils taking on the Utah Utes. While Utah has been a decent team this season, they haven’t quite faced a defense like this ASU unit. The Sun Devils rank in the top 25 in total yards allowed per game, passing yards, and points allowed. Opponents are averaging under 19 points against them in their past 3 games. The Utes defensively are a solid team against the pass, but they’ve struggled to contain backs on the ground. This plays right into the hands of a run-heavy Arizona State offense averaging over 214 yards per game via the rush after their 255 yard performance in Week 6. 

This one shapes up to be a highly competitive matchup between two really good football teams. Utah is 3-2 overall on the season, but they haven’t played great at home (1-4 ATS in their previous 5 home games). The Sun Devils have a flipped record of that, 4-1, in terms of ATS in their last 5 games on the road, and are 7-1 SU in their last 8 overall. Arizona State has the more talented team in this one, they just need to limit both turnovers and penalties. If they can do that, they’ll head home victorious. Take a stab at the Sun Devils who have looked rather impressive in their 3 games following their lone loss this season.

Both offenses have had little trouble scoring this season, with each averaging greater than 30 points per contest. Utah is coming off their second 40+ point showing of the season, whereas ASU has managed to put up 35 or more in 4 out of 6 games this year. Arizona State games this season have had an average total of 52.2 points, which would be enough to push this contest over the total. These schools also combine to average a healthy 64.1 points per game.

The over is 5-2 in the Sun Devils’ last 7 games on the road, while it has a 9-5-1 record in Utah’s last 15 regular-season contests. The expectation on the total for this one should be in the high 50s, so there’s a good amount of value on the line set here. The defenses aren’t bad in this one, but good offense usually beats good defense. The over is the play.

Over 50.5 available at time of publishing. Playable to over 51.5.

Auburn is on the road at Arkansas this weekend. For the first time since 2015, the Razorbacks are favored against the Tigers. Arkansas is a 4.5-point favorite. Both teams are entering this game off a loss. The Tigers are coming off a big loss to Georgia while the Razorbacks lost in the final seconds to Ole Miss. Arkansas, a team that has been talked about a lot for its defense, gave up 52 points to the Rebels. The good news for the Razorbacks is that Auburn isn’t going to spread them out the way Ole Miss did. The bad news is Auburn is probably going to try to attack them like Georgia did, on the ground. Auburn averages 206 rushing yards per game and Arkansas has one of the worst rushing defenses in the SEC, giving up an average of 191 yards per game.

On the other side of the ball, Arkansas has been most successful when they are able to run the football. The Razorbacks are going to have a tough time doing that against an Auburn defense than ranks third in the SEC in rushing defense. This is a bad matchup for Arkansas, so taking the points and siding with Auburn is the play. Bo Nix has a reputation for not performing well on the road, but when you look at road games that Auburn has played this season, Nix hasn’t done anything bad. At Penn State, in that hostile environment, he was serviceable and gave Auburn a chance to be in it at the end. At LSU, he made some special plays that helped the Tigers win in Death Valley. Take the points with Auburn.

Auburn +4.5 available at time of publishing.

 The under is the totals play for this game. Both Arkansas and Auburn want to run the football and pride themselves on playing good defense. Arkansas has struggled against the run, so expect long drives from Auburn as they look to establish the run and take advantage of that weakness.

When Auburn is on defense, look for the Tigers’ strong defense to force Arkansas to throw the ball more than they want to. Arkansas is coming off a 51-point performance, but Auburn’s defense will be much better than the unit Ole Miss fielded. The total simply looks too high in this game with both defenses being so strong.

Under 54.5 available at time of publishing.

Cincinnati has come out of the toughest part of its schedule successfully, resulting in an undefeated record and a #3 ranking in the AP Top 25. Although, they have come out with more than that. Luke Fickell has exposed the Bearcats to College Football as an elite team program, especially on offense. Desmond Ridder has proven himself to be among one of the top Heisman candidates in the league right now. The senior quarterback has thrown for 1304 yards, 12 touchdowns, and only 2 interceptions. With him and junior RB Jerome Ford in the backfield and senior WR Alec Pierce as a premier target, UCF will have a difficult time preventing the Bearcats to put up points. Though the Knights only give up an average of 27.4 points per game, in their two losses this season, they have given up 42 points to Louisville and 34 points to Navy. Let’s also not forget the Knights are 0-2 in their only two road games this season. Cincinnati has successfully made it through the games they needed to win in order to make it in the top 4. In order to remain in this position throughout the remainder of the season, the Bearcats must win out the remainder of their schedule in a definitive fashion. Expect Cincinnati to win handily – covering this spread.

With a game total at 57.5, it seems as though Vegas believes UCF will put some points on the board in this matchup. The Knights have averaged 36.8 points in their first five games of the season, while only giving up an average of 27.4 points per game. UCF is a caliber team that will not simply “give” this game to Cincinnati. Although, the Bearcats should not be too worried about the Knights with the offense they bring to the table. The Bearcats have averaged 41 points in their first five games of the season, while only giving up an average of 12.2 points per game. Though the Bearcats should end impressively victorious, they will have to work for this win. With that comes points. Take the over.

The Florida Gators travel to Death Valley for an SEC matchup with the LSU Tigers. Florida comes into this after their first shutout since 2019, a 42-0 win over Vanderbilt. QB Emory Jones had his best performance of the season, throwing a career-high 4 TD passes to go along with 273 passing yards in the win. He leads an offense that is 2nd in the SEC in total offense and 1st in total rushing yards, averaging 504.2 total yards and 273.8 rushing yards per game. The defense has been equally impressive for the Gators, allowing just 16.5 ppg (2nd in the SEC). They will not be afraid of an LSU offense that has struggled to produce this season.

LSU comes into this game off back-to-back losses to #22 Auburn and #16 Kentucky. QB Max Johnson struggled to get going last weekend and finished with just 261 passing yards, completing 57.9% of his passes. He will need to be better if LSU is to have any chance in this game as their rushing attack has been non-existent this season (83.3 rushing yards per contest). The defense is allowing 230.8 passing yards and 26.2 points per game. Kentucky ran for 330 yards against the Tigers last week and this will need to be addressed as they face one of the nation’s top 5 rushing attacks. LSU is 6-3-1 as a home underdog since 2010 and it has not been a common occurrence for the Tigers. Additionally, the Gators are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 road games and are just 1-2 on the road this season. The road team has won this matchup 4 of the last 10 times these programs have met, but neither team has ever won by more than 10 points on the road. Although LSU has struggled this season and will be without star WR Kayshon Boutte, the Tigers should put up a fight and the home crowd can help them to cover.

LSU +11.5 available at time of publishing. Playable to LSU +10.5.

Florida has allowed more than 20 points only to Alabama this season and the Gators are 2nd in the SEC and 15th in the country in scoring defense. LSU, on the other hand, have given up at least 21 points to each of their opponents this season outside of FCS program McNeese. The team totals are set at 24 for LSU and 35 for Florida and while LSU has averaged 29 ppg this season, this Florida defense has been strong.

Florida should run the ball, resulting in longer drives, while LSU will try to turn this game into a dogfight in order to keep it close. Florida has seen only 1 of their conference games go over 59 points and this matchup should follow that trend. Take the under.

Under 59.5 available at time of publishing. Playable to under 58.

Fresh off a bye, the Indiana Hoosiers will host the Michigan State Spartans on Saturday afternoon. The Hoosiers had things go from bad to worse two weekends ago when quarterback Michael Penix Jr. injured his AC joint against Penn State, making his status doubtful for this game. For an offense that was already struggling (343.6 total yards per game), losing their starting signal-caller certainly doesn’t help. Michigan State is still undefeated this season after trouncing Rutgers in Week 6. It was yet another complete game for the Spartans offensively, as quarterback Payton Thorne (340 yards, 3 touchdowns), running back Kenneth Walker III (223 yards on 28 carries), and wide receiver Jalen Nailor (221 yards, 3 touchdowns) all had themselves a day. Walker has been so good this season, there’s some Heisman chatter beginning to surround his name. 

Indiana’s defense is okay, but it’s almost certainly not good enough to stop this high-powered MSU offense. And now with some uncertainty behind center, the Hoosier offense shouldn’t be making any progress, either. The Spartans have gone on the road 3 times already this season, and have won and covered in every game. Overall, they are 4-0-2 ATS this year. Indiana has covered only once this campaign in 5 tries, against a bad Idaho team in Week 2. A trap game is possible, but Michigan State is clearly the better team, and should win by at least a touchdown. Take the Spartans.

Michigan State -4.5 available at time of publishing. Playable to Michigan State -6.5.

In their two contests against Big Ten competition this season, Indiana has a total of just 6 points. As a whole for the season, the Hoosiers average fewer than 24 points per game and rank in the bottom half of the country yardage-wise. Now, facing a Spartan defense surrendering fewer than 20 points per game, the challenge doesn’t get any easier. Indiana has actually been okay against the run this season (128.6 yards allowed per game), so they should be able to slow down MSU from time to time.

The under is 5-1 in Indiana’s last 6 games against Big Ten opponents, while it has also hit in 3 of Michigan State’s last 4 overall. The Hoosiers have yet to prove themselves on the offensive side of the ball this season, and Michigan State isn’t likely to have enough clock to put up 50 on their own. Play the under and expect long, drawn-out drives. 

Under 48.5 available at time of publishing. Playable to under 47.5.

Nebraska and Minnesota each entered the 2021 season with aspirations of contending in the Big Ten West. Both teams have shown flashes of potential, but ultimately haven’t been able to get out of their own way. Minnesota looked impressive against Ohio State in Week 1, but the Gophers’ offense has been inconsistent since then, most notably in a loss to lowly Bowling Green at home. Tanner Morgan is struggling to push the ball downfield and the Gophers’ running game has suffered following the injury to Mohamed Ibrahim. On the other side, Nebraska was embarrassed against Illinois in its opener, but the Cornhuskers season has turned around since that point to the tune of a 6-1 against the spread record. Adrian Martinez still has the propensity to turn the ball over, and it was a late fumble that may have cost his team the game last week against Michigan. But overall, the veteran quarterback is playing well, averaging nearly 10 yards per completion and completing more than 65% of his passes to this point. Minnesota’s defense has been susceptible to chunk plays and the Nebraska offense seems to have settled in nicely in recent games. Expect this one to come down to the final quarter in Minneapolis.    

Nebraska is still a frustrating group, but the team has also shown serious signs of improvement from where things started off in Week 1. Coming off the disappointment of falling short in a winnable game against Michigan, the Cornhuskers should be looking to get back on track in the Big Ten West. All four of Nebraska’s losses have come by one possession, while Scott Frost’s bunch is blowing out opponents in victories. It shouldn’t be a blowout on Saturday, but Nebraska can win by about a touchdown. Take the Cornhuskers. 

Nebraska -3.5 available at time of publishing. Playable up to Nebraska -4.

These teams take different offensive approaches, but it typically pays dividends for at least one of them on any given week. Even against a stout Michigan front 7, Nebraska managed to move the ball effectively and would have cleared 30 points fairly easily without multiple costly turnovers that killed previously effective drives. Minnesota has not looked sharp since its dominant win over Colorado, and things may not get easier against a Cornhuskers defense that continues to impress each week, even after their offense puts them difficult situations.

While Nebraska should be able to put up around 27 points on the road, the Minnesota offense should continue to struggle with no real threat in the passing game. The under is 10-4-1 in the Cornhuskers’ last 15 games overall and 5 of the Gophers’ last 7 games have gone under as well. Take the under. 

Under 48 available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.     

The Longhorns take on the Cowboys at high noon in Texas. Texas is coming off a devastating comeback loss to Oklahoma in the Red River Rivalry. They will look to exact revenge on the other team from Oklahoma. The Cowboys are undefeated this season and are coming into a tough environment to try to get a win. This should be a classic game in Austin. Texas has looked very good this season since changing quarterbacks after the embarrassing loss to Arkansas and they are 3-1 in their last 4. Texas has a Heisman-caliber running back in Bijan Robinson and a very talented quarterback in Casey Thompson. Their offense averages 44.5 points per game and 480 yards of offense, which is 5th best in FBS.

Oklahoma State has found ways to win games. Neither their offense nor defense is elite, but they have put wins together with good game-plans and are still undefeated. This should be a close game in which Texas edges out the win late at home. Texas is 8-0 against Oklahoma State when playing them at home as the favorite. Take Texas to cover.

Texas -5.5 available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

Last week was a very high-scoring game for Texas. This week their defense will look to get back on track. Oklahoma State’s defense has allowed only 18.6 points and 305 yards per game. This should be a back-and-forth game and there should be enough stops to keep this game below the number.

The under has hit in 9 of Texas’ last 14 games after playing Oklahoma. The Longhorns’ defense will likely take this as a personal challenge and try to prove they are not as bad as they looked last week. Oklahoma State’s defense is very talented and will do their best to keep Texas off the scoreboard. Take the under.

Under 60 available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

The Rutgers Scarlet Knights will take a trip out to Evanston on Saturday afternoon when they face the Northwestern Wildcats. The Wildcats have really struggled on both sides of the ball and have a really bad loss to Duke on their resume. Their last time out on the field was in Week 5, when they were dismantled by Nebraska, 56-7. After surrendering an outlandish 427 yards of rushing to the Cornhuskers, Northwestern is now allowing over 237 yards per game on the ground. The offense has averaged a lousy 17 points in their 3 games against Power 5 opponents this season. Rutgers is on a 3-game losing skid, but their opponents have been Michigan, Ohio State, and Michigan State — all teams in the top 10 in the AP poll. The offensive numbers for the Knights aren’t anything otherworldly, but they do tend to limit turnovers on that side of the ball. Rutgers has actually played pretty well defensively, holding opponents to 212 passing yards per game and less than 23 points.

The Knights are a sort of up-and-coming program with a lot to look forward to, whereas the Wildcats have been really good in recent years and are now coming back down to earth. Northwestern is 1-4 ATS this season and Rutgers is 5-0 in that department in their last 5 road games. Neither of these schools is necessarily good right now, but the Knights have undoubtedly been the better-performing team up to this point. Look for Rutgers to win the turnover battle in this one, propelling them to a victory.

Rutgers -2 available at time of publishing. Playable to Rutgers -2.5.

The abysmal offenses of both of these schools have been on full display this season, with Northwestern scoring more than 30 points just once this year, and Rutgers doing so just twice. Much like the Wildcats, the Knights have also struggled to light up the scoreboard against tougher competition, averaging 13 points in their last 3 contests (all against Big Ten opponents). The combined total offense per game between these squads equals out to under 725 yards.

In 13 of Rutgers’ last 18 games on the road, the total has gone under. The under also holds a 6-1 record for the last 7 Northwestern home games. The Wildcat defense is bad, but the Knights don’t have the offense to really take advantage. Northwestern is also bad offensively, and Rutgers is pretty competent from a defensive standpoint. This shapes up to be an ugly, low-scoring game. Take the under.

Under 44.5 available at time of publishing. Playable to under 43.5.

How will Texas A&M respond following the biggest win of the Jimbo Fisher era? Will there be an emotional letdown after knocking off Alabama or will Zach Calzada keep the train rolling as the Aggies travel to Missouri this weekend? The Aggies are strong favorites against a Missouri team that has yet to beat a Power 5 school. You should expect Calzada and the Aggies offense to continue to roll against a bad Missouri defense. The Tigers rank last for total defense in the SEC and have allowed teams to rush for an average of 288 yards per game on them. The defense is also giving up an average of 210 yards per game through the air. Texas A&M should be able to do whatever it wants to on offense — but that doesn’t necessarily mean they will cover.

On offense the Tigers have been able to have success and put points on the board, but the Aggies are giving up an average of only 16.8 points per game. Even though they beat Alabama, this is the ultimate hangover game for Texas A&M. Missouri might not have a strong defense, but their offense should be able to keep this within 9.5 points.

Missouri +9.5 available at time of publishing.

If Missouri’s offense can continue to score at a high clip, this game should go over the total. Texas A&M should be able to move the ball easily against the worst defense in the SEC, so the only question is if the Tigers will be able to hold up their end of the bargain when it comes to getting the game over the total.

The Tigers are the fifth-highest scoring team in the SEC, averaging almost 38 points per game this season. Missouri quarterback Connor Bazelak is the key to this game going over. After struggling against Tennessee, he was able to bounce back against North Texas. All but one of Missouri’s games have gone over the total this season and the over is the play for this game too.

Over 59.5 available at time of publishing.

The Blue Devils have had a tough start to their season, especially on the road. They started their season with a tough loss on the road to Charlotte (31-28) and were handily defeated by North Carolina (38-7) in Chapel Hill. This streak is likely to continue this week at Virginia against the Cavaliers and their impressive offense, which led them to last week’s 4th-quarter comeback win against Louisville. That win boosted the confidence of the Cavalier offense, and it’s expected to carry over into this game against Duke.

Virginia QB Brennan Armstrong has thrown for 2,460 yards and 17 touchdowns already this season, making him a candidate to be the top-rated QB in college football. This Cavaliers offense averages 33.6 points per game, while the Blue Devils are giving up an average of 28.8 points per game. Duke’s offense is high-tempo and run-heavy with RB Mateo Durant. Blue Devils QB Gunnar Holmberg has thrown for 1,616 yards with 6 touchdowns so far this season, and Durant has rushed for 788 yards on 149 carries with 9 touchdowns. Virginia is a pass-heavy offense that has the ability to throw all over the field against Duke and their struggling defensive backs. It’s even better that the Cavaliers are at home as they are 2-1 in Charlottesville this season. Take Virginia to cover.

Virginia -10.5 available at time of publishing.

This game total is quite high for two quarterbacks who have a history of turning the ball over. Granted both teams also have the ability to put points on the board, but neither team has really been able to put up enough points this season to cover a spread as high as 70. The only game this season in which the Blue Devils would have covered a line this high was at home to  Kansas, whose defense has given up over 40 points per game on average this season.

The Cavaliers have a similar situation, having only 1 game this season that would have covered a line this high — they were defeated by the Tar Heels 58-39. The next closest game Virginia has played relatively close to this total was last week against Louisville, where they came back to score 3  touchdowns in the 4th quarter to win 34-33. This game should be high-scoring and a lot of fun to watch, but the under is the better bet. 

Under 70 available at time of publishing.

The Blue Devils have had a tough start to their season, especially on the road. They started their season with a tough loss on the road to Charlotte (31-28) and were handily defeated by North Carolina (38-7) in Chapel Hill. This streak is likely to continue this week at Virginia against the Cavaliers and their impressive offense, which led them to last week’s 4th-quarter comeback win against Louisville. That win boosted the confidence of the Cavalier offense, and it’s expected to carry over into this game against Duke.

Virginia QB Brennan Armstrong has thrown for 2,460 yards and 17 touchdowns already this season, making him a candidate to be the top-rated QB in college football. This Cavaliers offense averages 33.6 points per game, while the Blue Devils are giving up an average of 28.8 points per game. Duke’s offense is high-tempo and run-heavy with RB Mateo Durant. Blue Devils QB Gunnar Holmberg has thrown for 1,616 yards with 6 touchdowns so far this season, and Durant has rushed for 788 yards on 149 carries with 9 touchdowns. Virginia is a pass-heavy offense that has the ability to throw all over the field against Duke and their struggling defensive backs. It’s even better that the Cavaliers are at home as they are 2-1 in Charlottesville this season. Take Virginia to cover.

Virginia -10.5 available at time of publishing.

This game total is quite high for two quarterbacks who have a history of turning the ball over. Granted both teams also have the ability to put points on the board, but neither team has really been able to put up enough points this season to cover a spread as high as 70. The only game this season in which the Blue Devils would have covered a line this high was at home to  Kansas, whose defense has given up over 40 points per game on average this season.

The Cavaliers have a similar situation, having only 1 game this season that would have covered a line this high — they were defeated by the Tar Heels 58-39. The next closest game Virginia has played relatively close to this total was last week against Louisville, where they came back to score 3  touchdowns in the 4th quarter to win 34-33. This game should be high-scoring and a lot of fun to watch, but the under is the better bet. 

Under 70 available at time of publishing.

On Saturday afternoon, the Colorado Buffaloes will welcome in fellow conference opponent the Arizona Wildcats. The Wildcats are winless on the year, and have yet to eclipse 20 points in a game this season. The defense isn’t keeping them in games either, as they own a -14.8 points per game differential. Arizona is having trouble stopping the run as they’ve allowed at least 160 yards on the ground to every opponent excluding one. Colorado hasn’t been great this season either, but they do at least have a victory. The Buffaloes’ defense has been okay, ranking in the top half of the country in both passing yards allowed per game (227.8) and points allowed (23.8). Senior linebacker Nate Landman ranks 4th in the FBS with 39 solo tackles after another 7+ tackle showing last weekend.

The one thing the Wildcats have been doing well in 2021 is passing (250.8 yards per game). Now, however, they will be on their third starting quarterback of the year after former starter Jordan McCloud was injured last weekend, being ruled out for the remainder of the year. Arizona is saddled with a lackluster 2-7 record ATS in its last 9 games and now faces uncertainty at the most important position on the field. Being on the road just adds another element on top of that. Take Colorado to cover, or rather Arizona to fail to do so.

Colorado -6.5 available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

Arizona is going to have a tough time going to their bread-and-butter passing game against this stingy Colorado secondary, and it will be even tougher with an inexperienced quarterback. The Buffaloes’ offense will also probably have a tough go of it, as they have for much of this season. Colorado is one of the worst teams in the country in terms of offensive production from both a points and yardage standpoint.

The Buffaloes have scored just 34 points total in their last 4 games, and have scored a single-digit total on two separate occasions already this season. The under is 5-3 in Colorado’s last 8 regular-season contests, while it has been the result in 9 of Arizona’s previous 13 games overall. The offenses in this game are really bad, and there’s a ton of value on the under. Back it with confidence.

Under 46.5 available at time of publishing. Playable to under 45.5.

The top-ranked Georgia Bulldogs continued their dominance last week with a big win on the road at Auburn. Georgia returns to Athens this weekend to host No. 11 Kentucky. The Bulldogs are 21.5-point favorites. Suggesting a bettor should lay more than 3 touchdowns in an SEC matchup is a lot to ask. Suggesting a bettor should lay more than 3 touchdowns in an SEC matchup between two ranked teams is asking even more. However, Georgia is 5-1 against the spread this season and has covered multiple double-digit spreads and there is no reason to believe that they won’t be able to cover against Kentucky. Georgia’s defense has overwhelmed every team they have faced and no team has scored more than 1 touchdown against them.

Kentucky has played well so far this season, but they have not faced a defense comparable to Georgia’s. There is no reason to believe that Kentucky’s offense will be the unit to give the Bulldogs trouble. Georgia is going to do what it has done all season — run the ball and play elite defense. Kentucky also turns the ball over a lot. Kentucky can’t afford to turn the ball over in this game, but it seems likely to happen. Georgia likely won’t need the extra possessions to win the game, but it will certainly help the Bulldogs cover the spread.

Georgia -21.5 available at time of publishing. 

After three straight games that went over the total, Georgia’s last two games have gone under. The total for Saturday’s game is 44.5 and the over is the play.

The number is too low when you consider how many short fields Georgia could be playing with if Kentucky turns the ball over the way that they have this season. Georgia is the kind of team that makes you pay for that kind of mistake and it is easy to see that being the reason that Georgia will be able to play with one or more short fields. With such a low total, that can make the difference.

Under 44.5 available at time of publishing.

Miami will travel to Chapel Hill to face North Carolina. Both the Hurricanes and Tar Heels are coming off losses. Miami lost to Virginia while North Carolina lost to Florida State. Quarterback Sam Howell led North Carolina in rushing while also throwing for 203 yards and 2 touchdowns in the loss, but the defense getting shredded by Florida State should be cause for concern. The Tar Heels’ defense should be able to bounce back this week against Miami.

Due to injuries, the Hurricanes will turn to their third-string quarterback Tyler Van Dyke and look for him to lead them in his first road ACC game. Van Dyke has started 2 games for Miami this season. The Miami offensive line has struggled at times, so you can expect North Carolina to dial up some plays to confuse and get after the young quarterback. Lay the 7.5 points with the Tar Heels at home. This is a tough spot for Miami because of their injuries at quarterback. Their offense has struggled at times because they can’t consistently run the ball and it’s tough to rely on a freshman quarterback on the road.

North Carolina -7.5 available at time of publishing.

The under is the play for this game. This total is too high when it is hard to get an idea of how Tyler Van Dyke will play in his first road ACC game.

It’s also hard to back a total this high when you consider how inconsistent North Carolina’s offense has played this season. Sam Howell has been putting the team on his back and doing everything for them, but he just doesn’t have much around him. It is also worth noting that every Miami game this season has gone under the total.

Under 63.5 available at time of publishing.

The Pittsburgh Panthers travel to Lane Stadium for a Saturday afternoon ACC matchup against the Virginia Tech Hokies. They boast an offense that leads the ACC with 558 yards of total offense per contest and 52.4 ppg. Pittsburgh is led by QB Kenny Pickett, who has thrown for 1,731 yards, 19 touchdowns, and just 1 interception. He showed poise leading the team to road victories at Tennessee and Georgia Tech and the Panthers would likely be undefeated and a ranked team had their defense not given up 44 points to Western Michigan. The defense is the one area of concern for Pittsburgh; although on paper it appears to be strong (22.6 ppg allowed), the average is inflated due to blowout wins against UMASS and UNH in which they allowed a combined 14 points. Luckily for them, this Hokies’ offense has been ugly this year and should not present many issues.

Virginia Tech gets its third home game in a row and it is coming off a brutal 32-29 loss to Notre Dame in which the Hokies had no one to blame but themselves. They took a 29-21 lead with 3:55 left in the 4th quarter and proceeded to allow 10 points in just over 2 minutes to lose the game on a last-second field goal. It was a balanced attack for the Hokies, but their offense has struggled overall this season as they rank towards the bottom of the ACC in total offense and points per game. Their strongest point is their defense as it is only allowing just 196 passing yards per game and 18.6 point per game. In their only losses this season, they allowed 27 and 32 points while their offense has reached 30 points just once this year against Middle Tennessee State. If the defense cannot contain Pickett, it could be a long day for the Hokies as they do not have the offensive firepower to keep up with this Pittsburgh passing attack. The Panthers have not won in Blacksburg since 2015 and although this Pitt offense has been rolling, this will be the best defense that the Panthers have seen this season. This line opened at Pittsburgh -1 and has since moved to -5. Pittsburgh should come out of Blacksburg with a victory, but Virginia Tech has played every opponent tough at home as it normally does. This one seems like it will be decided by a field goal. Take the home team and the points.

Virginia Tech +5 available at time of publishing. Playable to Virginia Tech +4.5.

The total has gone over in each of Pittsburgh’s games this season and the Panthers are seeing an average of 75 ppg, yet the sportsbooks continue to price their totals below 60. Virginia Tech has seen 4 of its 5 contests go under with an average of just 42.6 ppg. The last 3 times these teams met have produced an average of 52 ppg, and due to the fact that Virginia Tech is not much of an underdog it appears that Vegas thinks this game will be close,which favors Virginia Tech’s style of play.

Although the Panthers boast an elite offense, their competition has not been that tough and the fact that they are coming off a bye week could mean that they struggle at the start. Expect an ACC slugfest and for this one to stay under.

Under 57.5 available at time of publishing. Playable to under 56.

The Purdue Boilermakers make their way to Iowa City to take on the Iowa Hawkeyes on Saturday. Iowa is now the No. 2-ranked team in the country, as they picked up a massive win last week against then-No. 4 Penn State. However, they trailed for most of the game and benefited from an injury that knocked Sean Clifford out of the game. The Hawkeyes have established a distinct way of winning games: dominate special teams, force a ton of turnovers, win the field-position battle, and have their offense be just good enough. The Hawkeyes are 119th in the nation and dead-last in the Big Ten in total offense, averaging 317.5 yards per game.

Purdue is coming off a bad loss at home to Minnesota. They should come out with a heightened sense of urgency and a little extra motivation in this one. The passing game is working, as only Ohio State is averaging more yards per game though the air in the Big Ten. The Boilermakers don’t seem to be fazed by the atmosphere of Kinnick Stadium, as they have covered the spread in each of their last 5 games there. All of the pressure is on Iowa in this game, and Purdue is playing with house money. Consider backing the Boilers on the road.

Purdue +11.5 available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

This total is too low. Iowa is not known for their offensive prowess, but their effectiveness on special teams often gives them a short field to work with. That could result in some quick scoring drives. The Hawkeyes scored 31 points in a single quarter against Maryland, so it’s not like they are completely incapable of putting up points.

Purdue’s offense will get a big boost with the return of TE Payne Durham. He is a great release valve for the passing game, and he also provides steady blocking for the running game. Purdue has not seen any of their 5 games go over the total, but this is the lowest total they have seen by a fairly large margin. Consider the over with this low total.

Over 41.5 available at time of publishing. Playable to over 42.

This game is interesting. It opened as close to a pick ’em and has moved to Baylor as favorite by almost a touchdown. These teams are very evenly matched and the only edge would be home-field advantage for the Bears, but they are not known for a tough home-field environment. BYU will be looking to prove they belong in the Big 12 and Baylor will look to show them they aren’t ready for that yet.

BYU looked bad last week against Boise State, but coach Kalani Sitake will have the team ready to bounce back after the loss. Baylor is a heavy public favorite and is getting 90% of the money and history shows going against the public can pay. This line has moved too much, so take the points and hopefully watch a close game. BYU is 4-1 against the spread in their last 5 road games and 5-0 against the spread in their last 5 games against Big 12 opponents. Take the points.

BYU +6.5 available at time of publishing. Playable to BYU +5.5.

Evenly-matched teams typically means a back-and-forth battle. This total is too low for teams that are so similar. Both teams have average defenses and decent offenses. Baylor averages 38.3 points per game and BYU averages 27.2 points per game.

The odds say this will be a defensive battle, but these offenses could prove that wrong. The total has gone over in 4 of Baylor’s last 5 games and in 5 of their last 6 games at home. Look for this to be a back-and-forth contest and a close game in which the teams score enough points to hit the over.

Over 50.5 available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

The Texas Tech Red Raiders are looking to bounce back after their 52-31 defeat to TCU last week. They should feel good about their chances of doing so, as they face one of the worst teams in college football. Kansas is 1-4 SU and 0-5 ATS this season. In addition, they are just 1-13 ATS over the last 2 seasons. Ironically enough, that lone cover came against Texas Tech. These teams played a 16-13 contest last season in Lubbock, but the Red Raiders should be able to leave Lawrence with a bigger win this time around.

After winning their season opener by a score of 17-14 against South Dakota, Kansas has allowed an average of 51.3 points per game over their last 4 contests.  Simply put, the Jayhawk defense has not been able to keep anyone out of the end zone.  That bodes well for Texas Tech’s offense, as they lead the Big 12 with 302.2 passing yards per game. WR Erik Ezukanma leads the Big 12 with an average of 85.8 receiving yards per game. He has quickly become QB Henry Colombi’s favorite target. Colombi has posted a pair of 300-yard passing performances in 3 games since taking the reins of the offense in place of the injured Tyler Shough.  Look for that connection to lead a high-scoring effort for the Red Raiders in this one. Take Texas Tech.

Texas Tech -16.5 available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

Last year’s meeting was a 16-13 snooze fest. While this year’s matchup should be higher-scoring, this total seems a bit high. Texas Tech has held their opponents to under 23 points in each of their 4 wins this season. In 22 all-time meetings between Texas Tech and Kansas, the Jayhawks have scored more than 22 points just 5 times.  Kansas is averaging a mere 17.2 points per game this season, which ranks 122nd in the country. They rank 110th in total offense with 336.0 yards per game. Starting QB Jason Bean is completing less than 50% of his passes, and the running game has struggled. Bean is also the team’s leading rusher. Texas Tech’s defense hasn’t posted other-worldly numbers on the year, but holding Bean and company to under 20 points is not an unrealistic expectation.

Kansas’ defense has been awful, but they are coming off a bye and had 2 weeks to prepare for this one. It’s also worth noting that the under is 0-3 for Kansas on the road, but 1-1 at home. Consider the under.

Under 66.5 available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.