NFL Picks

Prior to last week’s games, I wrote at length about the ongoing struggles of rookie quarterbacks making their first career start on the road in the NFL playoffs. The last 25 years of data in those situations was part of my assessment in backing the Bills to beat the Broncos convincingly last weekend, and it was clear that Denver quarterback Bo Nix was flustered in a game of that magnitude. However, one quarterback that completely bucked the rookie trend was Jayden Daniels, as the Commanders starter played with poise and confidence to help lead his team to an upset victory over the Buccaneers to advance to the NFC Divisional round. Now, Daniels and this young team will be tasked with playing the top-seeded Detroit Lions on the road in another spot where most aren’t expecting much of them. Despite the fact that the historical data doesn’t favor the Commanders in this spot, I’m still interested in taking a shot on Washington here, especially since the high total suggests that this should be a high-variance game.

On paper, the matchup suggests that Detroit should be able to move the ball at will here. After all, the Lions’ offense ranks 3rd in EPA per play, 1st in success rate and 1st in both quality possessions generated and points per drive. Washington’s defense has been much-maligned this season, but this is pretty much a bang-average unit (16th in EPA per play, 13th in success rate allowed). Therefore, while the Lions offense (1st in success rate, 3rd in EPA per play) has the clear advantage in that matchup, it might not be as lopsided as most would think, especially after Washington put forth a strong effort against a Tampa Bay offense that was a top-5 unit in the league this season. Furthermore, both of these coaching staffs have been extremely aggressive all season long, and I wouldn’t expect that to change on Saturday. A game script that features a number of 4th-down attempts from both sides is one that typically favors the underdog, as it introduces variance into the game. That’s exactly how Washington wants to play, and it could lead to the Commanders stealing a couple of possessions and/or winning the time of possession battle — keeping Detroit’s elite offense off the field in the process.

On the other side of the ball, Detroit’s defense has been an area of concern for this team all season long, particularly in the second half of the campaign. The injuries caught up to the Lions in a major way down the stretch, and while Aaron Glenn’s unit has gotten a couple of key players back, there are still major cogs missing in the secondary, which is not ideal against a Washington passing offense that gave Tampa Bay fits a week ago. The Commanders should have potential mismatches downfield, and there could be opportunities for Terry McLaurin to make a few plays in 1-on-1 situations, as the Lions play more man coverage than any other team in the NFL. Daniels also has a ridiculous 98.1 QBR against the blitz over the past 6 games, so it’s going to be extremely difficult for Detroit to rattle this budding superstar just by bringing extra pressure. Lastly, the trends aren’t kind to home teams in this situation either. Per Evan Abrams, home teams in the Divisional Round coming off a bye are 33-42-1 against the spread (44%), since 2003. Additionally, they are 17-24-1 against the number (42%) as favorites of 7 or more points off a bye. Even against a team playing in its 2nd straight postseason road game, the team coming off the bye is still 15-22-1 ATS (41%). Look for Daniels and company to do just enough to keep this game within a possession at Ford Field.

Commanders vs Lions prediction: Commanders +9.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 9.

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This is not a wager for the faint of heart, but I can only lean toward the Under now that the line is sitting above a pretty key number in NFL totals. Part of what inspires a bit of confidence that we see a game that goes slightly under this total is the improvements that Detroit’s defense showed against Minnesota in that pivotal Week 18 game at home. We can expect Glenn and this veteran coaching staff to have all sorts of simulated pressures and exotic looks ready for Daniels, and it wouldn’t surprise me at all if Washington started out slow and had to play from behind for most of the game.

It also wouldn’t surprise me if Daniels’ legs also become a major factor in this game against a Detroit defensive front that has struggled to contain mobile quarterbacks (most notably Josh Allen) of late. The Commanders should be able to move the ball throughout, but the Lions are an excellent red-zone unit, as we just saw against Minnesota. And on the other side, while Detroit’s offense has been incredibly consistent all season long, the Lions are prone to long scoring drives this season given that they run the ball on early downs at a pretty high rate. The last playoff game to close with a total of 55.5 or more was back in 2021 between the Browns and Chiefs, and that one went well under. This game should finish in the low 50s, so I’ll take the Under in the Motor City.

Commanders vs Lions prediction: Under 55.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The Rams and Eagles are both advancing to the Divisional Round, but that doesn’t mean they both looked stellar in the Wild Card. Philadelphia capitalized on many Green Bay mistakes, and to their credit their defense was superb. Philly allowed just 5 yards per play, and of course the havoc they caused was part of Green Bay’s 4 turnovers. Jordan Love was rushed, hit 5 times and sacked twice, under constant duress from the onset of the match. Love also threw 2 horrid balls that turned into easy interceptions for the Eagles. By game’s end, the Packers outgained the Eagles 302-290 and went 7-13 on 3rd down. By comparison, Philly was just 2-11. After taking a 10-0 lead in the first quarter, the Eagles only scored 12 more points, and for stretches their offense was anemic. The Eagles punted in 4 straight drives from the start of the 2nd quarter to halfway through the 3rd, unable to close the door on a Green Bay team that mirrored preseason form. Only when the Packers scored did Jalen Hurts and his teammates respond. Their defense kept the Packers at bay when it mattered most, but there’s cause for concern with Philly’s stuttering offense. And the truth is, they haven’t been consistently elite all year (10th in yards per game, 17th in red-zone TD rate).

On the other side, we were very impressed by the Rams. Many Rams players had personal connections with the LA fires, including quarterback Matt Stafford. NFL schedulers changed their location, and the distraction of the fires had to interfere with their planning and preparation. It mattered not. Against a program with one of the NFL’s best records, the Rams were the aggressors from the start, scoring a touchdown on their opening drive (7 plays, 70 yards) and harassing Sam Darnold as soon as he stepped on the field. The Rams sacked Darnold a whopping 9 times for 82 yards lost, a result of a young, hungry defensive line that’s peaking at the right time. Stafford was sharp as a tack, 19/27 for 202 yards and 2 touchdowns, and their run game was formidable when it needed to be. In the end, it was a dominant performance and message to the rest of the NFC: Sean McVay and Matthew Stafford are a deadly combination that’s won a Super Bowl before; don’t think it can’t happen again.

Philadelphia will present a sloppy environment for this Sunday showdown but we fear not for the visiting Rams. Sure, they’re used to sunny Los Angeles and typically perfect southern California weather, but they also have veteran leaders who have been through it all. They also have McVay and Stafford, who can execute high-level offenses as good as any pairing in the NFL. Saquon Barkley is the Eagles’ ace in the hole, but even if they consistently run him down LA’s throat all-game, we doubt the Eagles can pull away.

Rams vs Eagles prediction: Rams +6 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 5.

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Sunday afternoon’s forecast is not ideal for an NFC Divisional Round contest, but it could make for a great watch. As of Wednesday, Sunday’s forecast in Philadelphia says that it’ll be rainy, then snowy, very cold, and with winds increasing in speed. Conditions like that are not great for offenses, especially the passing game.

Last week, Philadelphia’s defense looked far sharper than their offense. Sunday presents another good matchup on paper, against a Rams squad that historically isn’t very effective at running the ball (3.9 yards per carry, 31st). That means the Rams’ offensive success will come down to Stafford and the passing game. Few if any tandems in the NFL are more synergistic than Stafford and McVay, a pairing that’s won on the biggest stage. They’ll get their success, but Mother Nature will dictate some aspects of this contest, and that suggests very little room for error for even the best air raids.

We also love what we saw from the Rams’ defense, a group that abused Sam Darnold last week, sacking him 9 times and holding him to just 163 yards. Rookie linebacker Jared Verse looks like a future Hall of Famer, flying around the field far too quickly for a man his size and power. He’s the anchor of a front seven that’s played remarkably well since the start of December, and unsung playmakers like cornerback Ahkello Witherspoon are only adding to the increasingly stingy unit McVay has assembled. They’re bound to benefit from the adverse weather conditions, too, as long as they come with the same ferocity that they applied last Monday night. 

Whether it’s Philly controlling this contest and bleeding clock on the ground, or if both defenses simply dominate on both sides, the weather forecast and projected tempo of this game means we simply cannot expect many points to be scored.

Rams vs Eagles prediction: Under 43.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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Perhaps the most anticipated game of the Divisional Round is the showdown of the NFL’s top-2 MVP candidates. After scintillating performances by both programs last weekend, the Ravens and Bills will meet for a 2nd time this season. Our only other relevant reference point was their Week 4 battle, a clash where the Ravens dominated the visiting Bills from start to finish. They almost doubled the Bills in total yards (427 to 236), and Derrick Henry looked like Emmitt Smith (24 carries, 199 yards, 1 touchdown). Of course, the Bills also caught the Ravens at a bad time; Baltimore lost in their home opener to the Raiders 2 weeks prior, so they had extra motivation to display a perfect performance. 

That still doesn’t mean that the same thing will happen this Sunday. After a humbling loss to the Rams in Week 14, Buffalo has looked just as impressive as any team in the NFL. Disregarding their Week 18 matchup where they rested starters in a close loss to New England, the Bills have put up 143 points in 4 straight wins (36 ppg), and that started with a 48-42 spectacular against a team that many think is the best in the league, the Detroit Lions. Buffalo’s defense was extremely stingy last Sunday, holding the Broncos to just 224 yards, 13 first downs, 7 points and just 2-9 on 3rd-down conversions. We consider Sean Payton to be one of the premier play-callers in the NFL, so that’s no small feat. 

Still, the Ravens looked unstoppable in the Wild Card Round, against a division foe that’s seen them three times. Todd Monken is no longer calling plays for the Ravens and it appears they’ve learned from past mistakes. Last year, Baltimore failed to stick to their best asset in the playoffs – their run game – and created a game plan that featured a plethora of passing. They don’t seem to be on that path this time. Last Saturday, Baltimore ran for 299 yards on a very formidable group (PFF ranked Pittsburgh as the NFL’s best defensive line), having little to no issue controlling the line of scrimmage. The Bills’ front seven has very high upside, but by all statistical standards, they’re a very mediocre group (19th in opponent yards per rush, 16th in opponent yards per pass). In Buffalo or not, we agree with the line movement.

Ravens vs Bills prediction: Ravens -1 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 2.5.

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Right now (as of Wednesday) the weather in Buffalo says that it’ll be cold (20 degrees) with little wind and a slight chance of snow, but that seems to be changing by the hour. “Lake-effect” snow is a tricky thing, and at any point there could be a system that forms and dumps nasty weather. We’re not sure how messy it will get on Sunday, but we know the conditions are generally harsh. At the same time, this game features the top-two MVP candidates and 2 more of the most explosive offenses in the league (Buffalo is 2nd in ppg, Baltimore is 3rd). Many moons ago yet still this season, the Ravens held the Bills to just 10 points, 12 first downs and 236 yards. That means something, but we highly doubt the same thing will happen again. Baltimore’s defense was fierce and fast in their Wild Card win, but Josh Allen’s ingenuity and the Bills’ dependable core of skill players are a top operation to hold down for long, especially when they’re at home.

Of course, the same could be said of the other offense, and they’ve proved they can do it. Henry ran for 299 yards and the Ravens annihilated the Bills in Week 4, apparently having no challenges controlling the Bills’ sturdy front seven. In the Wild Card round, the Ravens looked fantastic, able to turn up the volume and enter attack mode in the blink of an eye. When Baltimore wanted to score, they simply could not be stopped, not even by one of the NFL’s most respected defenses. At some point, this will become a battle of MVP quarterbacks. We think that’ll happen earlier than later. One of the two will likely succeed in the first quarter, they’re just far too talented, which will trigger urgency and tempo in the offense. Hell, even if we see adverse weather conditions on Sunday, we’re not sure that any impediments can stop these two trains.

Ravens vs Bills prediction: Over 51.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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