The Arizona Cardinals are back from their bye week and they will be trying to maintain their status as the top seed in the NFC when they visit the Chicago Bears on Sunday. Arizona boasts the best record in the NFL at 9-2, and one of its losses was a respectable 24-21 decision against a fellow contender in Green Bay. The Cardinals’ only bad performance has come in a blowout loss at home to Carolina, but that can be explained in part by Kyler Murray’s absence. With the bye coming at a good time, Murray (ankle) has a good chance of returning after missing 3 games. The same can be said of DeAndre Hopkins, who did not play at all in November because of a hamstring injury.

Chicago has been an unmitigated disaster since beginning the season 3-2. It is 1-5 in its last 6 contests and there are rumors that head coach Matt Nagy may not even make it through the rest of the season. The Bears’ only victory during this stretch has come over a winless Detroit squad (16-14 on Thanksgiving). Justin Fields, Allen Robinson and Marquise Goodwin are 3 offensive starters who are questionable for Sunday. Arizona is 7-2 against the spread in its last 9 overall, 19-7-3 ATS in its last 29 on the road, and 4-1 ATS in its last 5 against opponents with losing records. The Bears are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 overall, 0-4 ATS in their last 4 against the NFC, and 1-4 ATS in the last 5 meetings between the teams. Lean toward Arizona, but keep it a small play until Murray and Hopkins are confirmed.

Cardinals -7.5 available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

For a multitude of reasons, the under appears to be the play for this game — at least at this point. Arizona doesn’t know for sure who is going to be at quarterback or receiver, and the same can be said of Chicago. Moreover, right now it is supposed to be cold, windy, and rainy in Chicago on Sunday. That wouldn’t help matters for the offenses.

Chicago has scored a grand total of 29 points in its last 2 games and things may get worse before they get better. The under is 11-3 in the Cardinals’ last 14 on the road and 10-4 in their last 14 against opponents with losing records. It is also 8-2 in the Bears’ last 10 overall, 18-6 in their last 24 at home, and 4-1 in their last 5 against the NFC. Go with the under, but continue to monitor the injury reports and the weather.

Under 45.5 available at time of publishing. Playable to under 45.

The situation is getting tough for the Colts after last week’s gut-wrenching loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and they may even need to win out to have a shot at the playoffs. With games against the Patriots and Cardinals still to come, anything other than victory on their trip to Houston would spell trouble. Fortunately, the Colts have become more reliable as the season has gone on and they can be trusted to win and cover the spread against a hapless division rival. The line for this game opened at Colts -7.5 but has quickly jumped to -9 and is only heading one way so don’t hesitate to get behind the Colts. They enter Week 13 having averaged more than 33 points per game over the last 7 weeks and they showed against the Bucs that they aren’t a 1-man team. RB Jonathan Taylor still got his fill with 97 rushing yards and a touchdown, but QB Carson Wentz threw for 306 yards and three TDs.

The Colts defense couldn’t stop Leonard Fournette last week but they won’t have the same problem against a Texans side that managed only 96 rushing yards in their home loss to the Jets. In total, Houston put up 206 yards in Week 12, with the highlight of the game for the Texans being Tyrod Taylor’s first touchdown pass since Week 2 when connecting with Brandin Cooks. That loss to a dreadful Jets team has to have really hurt and could prove the tipping point for a team that has been frisky at times this year. The Colts should beat up on a demoralized Texans team, as they did when winning 31-3 in the reverse fixture, and can improve on their recent 6-1 against the spread record against their divisional rivals.

Colts -9 available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

Houston’s offense is truly terrible, ranking dead-last in total offense DVOA and rushing DVOA. Tyrod Taylor is trying his best with the weapons at his disposal but it’s not easy, particularly when the offensive line isn’t giving him much protection — the Jets sacked Taylor 5 times in Week 12.

The Texans are averaging fewer than 15 ppg now and won’t find life easy against a Colts team that ranks 12th in total defense DVOA. Indianapolis shouldn’t need to be at their best to beat the Texans, pointing towards the under, which has landed in the last 5 meetings between the AFC South teams in Houston and is 4-0 in the last 4 games played in either city.

Under 45.5 available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

The Cincinnati Bengals will be hoping to extend their winning streak to 3 games when they host the Los Angeles Chargers on Sunday afternoon. Cincinnati is coming off complete blowouts of Las Vegas (32-13) and Pittsburgh (41-10). The bye week apparently came at exactly the right time for the Bengals, as they had previously lost 2 in a row, but they have come out of it looking like gangbusters. They have scored 73 points in their last 2 outings even without star rookie Ja’Marr Chase doing much damage (a combined 71 receiving yards). Running back Joe Mixon has been on fire, rushing for 288 yards in the last 2 games and scoring 6 touchdowns in the last 3.

Seemingly every team in the NFL has endured some kind of swoon this year, and the Chargers appear to be in theirs right now. They are 2-4 in their last 6 games since beginning the season 4-1. The road has been especially bad for them of late. They were humiliated 34-6 at Baltimore, barely beat a struggling Philadelphia squad 27-24, and fell 28-13 at Denver last weekend. Los Angeles has surrendered at least 24 points in 7 consecutive contests. It is dead last in the league in rushing defense, 28th in passing defense, and 26th in sacks (21). The Chargers are 1-5 against the spread in their last 6 overall, 0-4 ATS in their last 4 against the AFC, and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 after losing by more than 14 points in their previous outing. Cincinnati is 6-2 ATS in the last 8 meetings between the teams.

Bengals -3 available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

LA’s defense is bad in just about every department these days. It can’t stop either the run or the pass and isn’t putting pressure on opposing QBs. This should be the perfect matchup for Ja’Marr Chase to get going again, and just think how good Cincinnati’s offense will be if its star rookie gets back in form given how hot Joe Mixon is at the moment.

Cincinnati’s passing defense is almost as bad as that of Los Angeles, so this should develop into a fun showdown between QBs Joe Burrow and Justin Herbert. The over is 7-3 in the Chargers’ last 10 against opponents with winning records and 4-0 in their last 4 after gaining more than 350 yards of total offense in their previous outing. It is also 4-1 in the Bengals’ last 5 overall and 4-0 in their last 4 after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game. Back the over.

Over 50.5 available at time of publishing. Playable to over 51.

The Vikings maybe aren’t at the top of the list of teams you’d want to back to concede a large spread this season, but an exception can be made when they play the winless Lions on Sunday. Minnesota (5-6) has been involved in more than its fair share of late dramas this season, but they are essentially a better team than the Lions and should complete a season sweep on the road. Both teams are likely to be without their top running backs for this game due to shoulder injuries, with Dalvin Cook set to miss a couple of weeks for the Vikings and D’Andre Swift unlikely to be able to go for the Lions, although he hasn’t been ruled out yet. Alexander Mattison filled in for Cook in the first game between the teams, which Minnesota won 19-17 with a walkoff field goal. The Lions suffered the same fate against the Bears on Thanksgiving afternoon, while the Vikings were overwhelmed by the 49ers running attack on Sunday, but that’s not likely to happen against the Lions.

The difference in the teams’ passing offenses is stark, with the Vikings blessed with the talent of Adam Thielen and Justin Jefferson, while the Lions have a shaky quarterback in Jared Goff and a bargain basement receivers’ room. The Lions are 0-10-1 and that includes 0-5 at home. They have managed to at least keep their last 3 games close, but 6 of their defeats have come by 8 points or more and another should be added to the list on Sunday.

Vikings -7 available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

There were only 36 points scored when these teams met in Week 5, but we can reasonably expect to see more in Sunday’s game at Ford Field, with both defenses having lost some key contributors since then. The teams could both be missing their leading rushers, but Minnesota backup Alexander Mattison is not a huge downgrade, even from Dalvin Cook, and he ran for 113 yards against the Lions and 112 against the Seahawks in the only games he has had more than 10 carries this season. Losing D’Andre Swift would be a blow for the Lions, but Jamaal Williams is a useful backup and Godwin Igwebuike has looked like a real force at times in limited work.

The Lions are conceding an average of 30.8 points per game at home, while the Vikings defense performs much better at home, allowing 19.8 per game in Minneapolis but almost 10 per game more on the road at 29.5. Six of the Vikings’ 11 games have gone over, including 4 of the last 6, while the Lions have been under specialists, largely due to their own offensive incompetence, but they should be able to make a contribution to a more high-scoring affair this time.

Over 46.5 available at time of publishing. Playable to over 47.

The Miami Dolphins are finally looking like the team they were last year after recording 4 wins in a row, and they can make it a famous 5 when they host the New York Giants. Miami just decimated Carolina last week as the Dolphins looked tremendous on both sides of the ball. The defense held Cam Newton to just 92 passing yards and 5 completions in 21 attempts, while their own offense saw Tua Tagovailoa finally start to fulfill the potential he had prior to last year’s draft. The Dolphins have now allowed just 46 points across their last 4 games, and they should feast on a Giants team that has struggled to find the endzone. New York has put more than 23 points on the board just once in its last 7 matchups and it has struggled on both sides of the ball. On the ground, the G-Men have the 5th-fewest yards per carry in the league, and through the air they rank with the 9th-fewest passing yards per attempt while posting the 3rd-fewest touchdown passes. Those sorts of stats won’t cut it against this Dolphins team, and it’s even harder to see the Giants having any success against Miami’s secondary with Mike Glennon under center.

The jury is still out on whether Tagovailoa can truly light it up for the Dolphins, and he will likely be tested against this Giants team that showed last week it can punish struggling quarterbacks. But the Alabama product has created a tremendous rapport with rookie wideout Jaylen Waddle and that connection could be enough to see Miami beat New York and cover the spread. Take the Dolphins.

*Dolphins -4 available at time of publishing. Playable to -4.5.*

This line is very low, but that is for good reason. As explained in the spread write-up, the Dolphins have held their last 4 opponents to a combined total of just 46 points — an average of 11.5 points per game — and that success looks likely to continue against a Giants offense that has scored 23 points or fewer in 6 of its last 7 matchups. As for the Miami offense, while Tagovailoa has been much-improved this season I’m still not sold on their run game and Myles Gaskin as a starting running back. He’s had less than 50 rushing yards in 4 of his last 5 games and could struggle once again with the Giants giving up the 7th-fewest rushing touchdowns this season. New York’s defense ran riot against Jalen Hurts and the Eagles last week, holding them to just 7 points, and points will likely be at a premium when these two hot defenses collide.

*Under 40.5 available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.*

The Eagles return to the scene of the crime with a second consecutive trip to New York to face the Jets and they should be able to bounce back to winning ways, even if QB Jalen Hurts misses out. Hurts had one of his worst games of the season in the Week 12 loss to the Giants at MetLife, throwing for 129 yards and 3 interceptions, and he finished the game with a bad ankle. Philadelphia are on their bye next week so Hurts could be rested, clearing the way for the birth of Minshew mania among Eagles fans. Gardner Minshew is one of the top backup quarterbacks in the league and in his last game against the Jets he threw for 3 touchdowns, finishing the game with a QB rating of over 119. The former Jaguar may not have to do that much work with Philly’s ground game now ranked No. 1 in the league, while the Jets’ run defense grades out at 30th in DVOA, paving the way for them to put up way more than the 7 points they managed against the Giants.

The Eagles should dominant in the trenches and that could lead to another long afternoon for Jets QB Zach Wilson. The rookie returned from injury in a win against the Texans but he once again found the going tough, finishing with his third-lowest QB rating of the year. This young Jets team looks prone to a letdown after just their third win of the season and they are 2-5 against the spread in their last 7 games following a win, while they are 3-8 ATS on the year. The Eagles have covered in 3 of their last 5 on the road, are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games against the Jets and with their need for a win far greater than the Jets’, they can get the job done.

Eagles -6.5 available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

With the Eagles fresh off scoring a season-low 7 points and the Jets back to paddling upstream with Zach Wilson at QB, the under looks the way to go. The under has cashed in 4 of the Eagles’ 7 road games this year and their ability to run the ball shortens the time both teams have to put up points.

Philly had averaged 34.5 points per game in their 4 outings prior to their defeat by the Giants but even if they get back to that kind of form, the Jets don’t look in a position to help push the total over. The Jets have averaged just over 14 points per game when Wilson starts and unless Robert Saleh decides to hook him for the fit-again Joe Flacco, don’t expect an explosive offensive performance from Gang Green.

Under 45 available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers will be trying to maintain a borderline insurmountable lead in the NFC South when they visit the Atlanta Falcons in Week 13. Tampa Bay is 8-3 and every other team in the division has only 5 wins. In rather bizarre fashion, this is the Buccaneers’ fourth road game in the span of five games overall. Tom Brady and company have posted road wins over New England and Indianapolis, but they have lost on the road to the Rams, Saints, and Football Team while being undefeated at home. Brady has been alarmingly erratic, throwing 6 interceptions in the last 4 contests. He has gone interception-free only once in his past 6 outings.

It’s hard to describe just how different the Falcons are with Cordarrelle Patterson on the field. Their offense was hopeless without him for most of a 43-3 loss at Dallas and all of a 25-0 setback against New England, but he returned from an ankle injury last weekend against Jacksonville and promptly rushed for 108 yards and 2 TDs during a 21-14 win. Calvin Ridley’s absence hurts, but Atlanta can get by as long as Patterson is suited up. This team lost 48-25 to Tampa Bay on the road in Week 2, but that was still a 3-point game in the fourth quarter. The Bucs are 1-5 against the spread in their last 6 on the road and 1-6 ATS in their last 6 as road favorites. Atlanta is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 in December. It is also worth noting that the home team is 7-2 ATS in the last 9 head-to-head meetings. Giving a ton of points in the NFL these days is dangerous. Lean toward the Falcons plus the 11 points.

Falcons +11 available at time of publishing. Playable to Falcons +10.5.

Tampa Bay just played a shootout last Sunday, beating the Colts 37-30. Leonard Fournette went crazy to the tune of 4 total touchdowns, giving him 8 for the season. Speaking of shootouts, a total of 73 points were scored in previous head-to-head matchup this year. In 2020, the Bucs and Falcons combined for 58 points in Atlanta and 71 points in Tampa Bay. I can’t see the underdogs suddenly stopping Brady this time around, but at the same time Patterson should be in line for another big day at the expense of a Bucs defense that just isn’t the same as it was last season.

The over is 29-13 in the Bucs’ last 42 on the road and 17-5 in their last 22 against the NFC South. It is also 4-1 in the Falcons’ last 5 against the NFC South. Additionally, the over is 10-1 in the last 11 meetings between the teams and 5-0 in Tampa Bay’s last 5 trips to Atlanta. Look for this one to go over the total.

Over 50.5 available at time of publishing. Playable to over 51.

After a scorching hot 7-1 start, the Los Angeles Rams have dropped 3 games in a row, and they have not looked particularly strong in any of those games. Matthew Stafford has as many interceptions as touchdown passes in that stretch (5), and he does not appear to be fully healthy. It doesn’t help that he is not getting much help from his offensive line. Along with Stafford, the Rams are dealing with injuries to key players WR Odell Beckham Jr. and RB Darrell Henderson. The Los Angeles offense is out of whack right now, and the lingering injuries certainly don’t help.

Laying this many points with the Rams could be a tough ask. Los Angeles has not covered the spread in 5 consecutive games, and they have not covered by an average of 12.5 points in that stretch, which is ironically the spread in this game. The Jaguars are by no means an exceptional football team, but they have covered the spread in 2 of their last 3 road games, and in 3 of their last 4 road contests if you count their win against the Dolphins in London. Make it a small play, but consider taking the Jaguars to cover the large spread against a Rams team that appears to still be figuring things out. This play has more to do with the uncertainty and inconsistency surrounding Los Angeles than it does with having confidence in Jacksonville. The Rams should win the game, but it may not be as easy as it should be.

Jaguars +12.5 available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

The under is the play that warrants a bit more confidence in this matchup. As mentioned in the spread write-up, the Los Angeles offense has sputtered over the last few weeks. Stafford is nowhere near his early-season production, and the offensive line is letting too many opposing rushers into the backfield. It would be somewhat surprising if the Los Angeles offense suddenly explodes for a monster day.

On the other side, Jacksonville has averaged a measly 11.4 points per game over their last 5 contests. Los Angeles’ defensive front has sacked the opposing quarterback 30 times this season, which is good for 6th in the league. They should be able to give rookie Trevor Lawrence a tough time. The Rams’ secondary is also very talented, and Jalen Ramsey should be looking to make some big plays as he goes up against his former team for the first time. Back the under.

Under 48 available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

Don’t look now, but the Washington Football Team is surging. They have won three games in a row, and they will look to keep the momentum going here as they travel to take on the Las Vegas Raiders. The schedule makers did Washington no favors here, as it is coming off a Monday Night Football game while the Raiders haven’t played since last Thursday. Even still, I’m taking Washington on the spread here. Don’t overreact to the Raiders pulling one upset against a really beat up Cowboys team. Washington’s defense is playing a lot better than it was early in the year and Taylor Heinicke has been a lot better than he’s being given credit for.

Two of Washington’s recent wins came against Panthers and Bucs teams that have ferocious defensive fronts, and Heinicke still played very well. Las Vegas’ interior offensive line is one of its weaknesses, while interior defensive line is a strength for Washington. Jonathan Allen should be wreaking havoc in this one. Washington just got tight end Logan Thomas back from a lengthy absence, while the Raiders just lost theirs. It looks like Darren Waller isn’t going to play here, which is a massive loss for Las Vegas. Right before the overtime win over Dallas, the Raiders had looked awful three weeks in a row. Take Washington plus the points.

*Washington +2.5 available at publishing. Playable down to +1.5.*

My favorite play in this game is on the under. It can’t be overstated how big of a blow Waller being sidelined with a knee injury is to the Raiders’ offense. Without him, there are virtually no weapons left. Hunter Renfrow, Bryan Edwards, and Zay Jones aren’t going to scare a rapidly improving Washington defense. A lot has been made about how Chase Young is hurt for Washington, but Young had quietly been having a pretty subpar season and the it isn’t any worse off without him. When you dig into it, Washington has just played a ridiculously tough slate of opposing offenses.

This defense is better than the metrics indicate, and it just completely dominated Russell Wilson in Week 12. Before their Thanksgiving outburst against a depleted Cowboys defense, the Raiders had failed to top 16 points in three straight weeks. The Raiders’ run defense can be exploited, so expect Washington OC Scott Turner to look to keep it on the ground with Antonio Gibson.

*Under 49.5 available at publishing. Playable down to 48.*

The Baltimore Ravens have found ways to make games they should have won easily into last-play wins and won games they looked to have thrown away this season, but it’s hard to see them messing things up against the slumping Steelers. You can crab the Ravens for their effort in beating the Browns last week — quarterback Lamar Jackson threw 4 interceptions after all, so they had no real right to win if the visitors hadn’t been so putrid offensively. But their defense bailed out their offense and even if the Ravens (8-3) have a better record than their performances deserve, the same can be said to an even greater extent about the Steelers (5-5-1).

Pittsburgh has allowed 41 points in back-to-back games. In the first, against the Chargers, they at least managed to score 37 themselves (although they trailed by 17 after the third quarter), but in last week’s humiliation against Cincinnati, they scored just 10, with their only TD coming in garbage time. The Ravens won last week but it will have felt almost like a loss and they will have a point to prove at Heinz Field. The Steelers are a mediocre 3-2-1 at home this season, including an awful 16-16 tie against the winless Lions in their last home contest. They could be missing their best defensive player, TJ Watt (Covid protocols), and while coach Mike Tomlin has promised changes, it’s going to be hard for them to arrest their slide against one of the AFC’s best teams. Take the Ravens.

Ravens -4 available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

The Ravens’ last 3 games have gone under the total, as have 6 of their last 9. The 3 overs in that time came against Cincinnati, Minnesota and Indianapolis, who all pose a far greater offensive threat than the struggling Steelers.

Three of Pittsburgh’s last 4 games have gone over, but that’s chiefly because they have allowed 41 points to each of their last 2 opponents, and they are still only 4-6-1 to the over this season. The likely absence of linebackers TJ Watt and Robert Spillane from the Steelers’ defence could see points expectations rise, but then tight end Pat Freiermuth (concussion), one of the few offensive bright spots for Pittsburgh this season, is also an injury concern. With both offenses stuttering, taking the under is the sensible play for this AFC North rivalry.

Under 44 available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

The 49ers are alive and well in the playoff race after 3 straight wins, but their revival faces arguably its toughest test yet when they go to Seattle. The Seahawks are 1-6 in the last 7 games but you can almost guarantee they will give the Niners trouble having beaten them in 16 of the teams’ last 19 meetings, including at Levi’s Stadium earlier this year. That kind of history is tough to ignore and gives something for the beaten-down 12th man to cling on to after a narrow defeat to Washington. Russell Wilson has now lost 4 straight games for the first time in his career but has tended to save his best for when he faces the 49ers, registering 34 touchdowns in 19 games. Wilson shouldn’t have to deal with the kind of pressure he faced in Washington with the Niners having found it tough to get to the quarterback this year. San Francisco’s defense also won’t be able to call on key linebacker Fred Warner for this game, while the secondary has been a mess recently, and this could be the opportunity Seattle have waited for to jump-start their offense.

Injuries to the 49ers are a key reason to lean towards Seattle, with Deebo Samuel also out of this game. Samuel has developed into a running-back/wide receiver hybrid, giving opposition defenses all kinds of matchup nightmares, but he will sit out this one with a calf injury. Warner and Samuel were injured in last week’s emotionally charged game against the Vikings and there’s a chance the Niners will suffer something of a letdown. The Vikings game was only the 4th time in 14 games as a favorite in which the Niners have covered and with a 2-7-1 record against the spread from their last 10 trips to Seattle, there’s reason to believe the hosts can cover as home underdogs.

Seahawks +3.5 available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

With the 49ers having lost their best offensive weapon and the Seahawks not scoring more than 15 points in a game since Russell Wilson returned from a thumb injury, the under holds plenty of appeal. Wilson is clearly not 100 % while Seattle haven’t managed to get a semblance of a running game going in recent weeks. Has anyone seen DK Metcalf in the last month?

The Niners will likely try to run the ball down Seattle’s throat, a tactic which worked very effectively for Washington, who piled up 152 yards. That will keep the game clock ticking and continue a trend that has seen the under land in the last 4 games played at Lumen Field.

Under 46 available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

We have an AFC West rivalry game for Sunday Night Football as the Kansas City Chiefs host the Denver Broncos. Denver is in the midst of a bit of a resurgence, having won three of its past four games. I don’t want to bet against Kansas City head coach Andy Reid coming off a bye week, but I do think the value lies with the Broncos here. Vic Fangio’s defense is finally starting to get healthy, and they just added Bradley Chubb back into the fold. This past week they completely shut down Justin Herbert and the Chargers. Denver wants to run the ball, and I think it will do so with enough success to keep this one from getting to double-digits.

Kansas City just isn’t the dominant team it has been in past years anymore, and even in most of its recent wins it hasn’t looked too impressive. In the Chiefs’ last primetime game at home, they barely squeaked past Daniel Jones and the Giants by just three points. They have been awful against the spread, and this number is just too high for me in a game against a rapidly improving Broncos squad. Denver was never as good as its seemed in its first few games, but it was never as bad as it seemed during that brutal stretch in the middle of the season. Grab the points with the ‘dog.

*Broncos +9.5 available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.*

The play I like most in this game is the under. Kansas City’s once high-flying offense has had its wings clipped. The Chiefs have failed to top 20 points in four of their past five games, which would’ve been unthinkable not too long ago. The way to exploit this Denver defense is by running the ball right at its banged up linebacker group, but Kansas City doesn’t have the ground game to take advantage. On the flip side, I’m really not expecting Teddy Bridgewater to come in and do too much on the road in one of the toughest environments to play in across the entire NFL.

The Chiefs’ defense has also gotten a lot better in recent weeks, and they just completely stifled Dak Prescott in their most recent game. Quietly, Kansas City has given up 17 points or fewer in four straight games. With this being a division rivalry game with massive stakes, I’m expecting a relatively slow pace.

*Under 47.5 available at publishing. Playable down to 47.*

We have a great matchup for Monday Night Football here as the Buffalo Bills host the New England Patriots. Buffalo beat up on the Saints last week, but I wasn’t all that impressed. New Orleans is coming apart at the seams and had virtually its entire starting offense hurt. Don’t let that one big result in primetime make you forget that the Bills had looked awful right before that. They got destroyed by the Colts in Week 11 at home, and just a couple weeks before lost to the lowly Jaguars as a massive favorite. This Bills’ offense just isn’t the same as it was last year, and Josh Allen has regressed significantly. Even in the win against the Saints, Allen still had two bad interceptions.

On the other hand, the Patriots are playing their best ball of the season. Mac Jones certainly doesn’t look like a rookie and Bill Belichick should have a good game-plan for slowing down Allen. The Pats have won six games in a row, with most of them coming in dominant fashion. New England has shown it can win in a variety of ways and the Bills just aren’t as good as you might think. Buffalo also suffered a huge blow in its win over New Orleans when star cornerback Tre’Davious White went down with a torn ACL.

*Patriots +3 available at publishing. Playable at that number.*

I’m expecting this to be a very low-scoring game. For starters, it looks like weather is going to have a significant impact here. Heavy winds are in the forecast, and it looks like it’s going to be very chilly in Buffalo. But weather aside, this still profiles as a defensive struggle. The Patriots have allowed more than 13 points exactly once since October 17th. That was in a game against the Chargers where they still did a great job slowing down Justin Herbert. Josh Allen isn’t playing close to the level he was last year, and opposing defenses have adjusted to this Buffalo passing game.

Just a few weeks ago the Bills only managed six points against Jacksonville’s barely-there defense. On the other side, Mac Jones is going on the road in primetime in harsh weather conditions for the biggest game of his young career. I’m not expecting him to light it up. New England is going to be looking to run the ball, as that’s where Buffalo’s defense is most vulnerable. Points are going to be at a premium.

*Under 43.5 available at publishing. Playable down to 43.0.*