NFL Picks

The Pittsburgh Steelers face the toughest schedule in 2021 according to our strength of schedule calculations based on regular-season win totals.

Ben Roethlisberger is another year older and father time looked like it caught upon him during the backend of last season. Big Ben tossed 10 picks in seven games. The Steeler’s offense will also see a change in some key areas. Matt Canada replaces Randy Fichtner as offensive coordinator. Nine-time Pro Bowl center Maurkice Pouncey has retired and will be replaced by rookie Kendrick Green. They will also likely start rookie running back Najee Harris.

The Steelers are likely to see some regression in 2021. They won 12 games last year but should have only 10 if you look at their underlying numbers with the Pythagorean theorem. They were also +9 in turnover differential and 7-2 in one-score games.

This bet is fairly straightforward- I don’t trust either quarterback to get nine wins against a tough schedule next season.

The Saints face the fourth-toughest overall schedule and although Sean Payton is a great coach I think this offense is missing a few pieces to win that many games. I wasn’t impressed by Taysom Hill in his three starts last year and I don’t think anyone can trust Jameis to get above nine wins at this moment in time.

Michael Thomas was injured for most of 2020 and they’ve lost two of their most productive pass catchers from last year. Emmanuel Sanders is now with the Buffalo Bills and Jared Cook is with the Chargers. The lack of depth at receiver is a big concern and Kamara had a huge workload last season, is that sustainable at his position?

The Saints should regress in turnovers (+9) and they were 5-3 in one-score games.

The Chiefs have more potential for dominance. They slacked off a bit during the regular season last year, and even while not playing up to their standards they still went 14-2. One of those losses was in a meaningless Week 17 game where they rested Mahomes, so they actually went 14-1 in games they tried to win. The one real defeat was by one score in a shootout against the Raiders.

Unlike the Buccaneers, the Chiefs were aggressive in remaking their roster this offseason. They completely overhauled their offensive line, making Joe Thuney the highest paid guard in the league. They lured Kyle Long out of retirement. Traded for a stud left tackle in Orlando Brown Jr. You get the picture. Kansas City’s only real (relative) weakness has now been addressed, and then some.

Mahomes should now have one of the best offensive lines in the league protecting him, which is a scary thought for the rest of the NFL. They’ll likely be favorites in every game, and if the defense continues to make strides they should at least make this interesting.

The first year of the Dan Campbell era in Detroit isn’t expected to start off with a bang. Detroit traded away Matthew Stafford this offseason, and will be rolling with Jared Goff in 2021. They also hired Anthony Lynn to be their offensive coordinator, signaling they intend to go with an old school run-first approach. Stafford wasn’t the only significant departure on offense, as they also let Kenny Golladay walk in free agency.

The Lions went 5-11 last year, and that was with Stafford starting all 16 games. The downgrade under center is immense, and if they start with a few losses things could snowball out of control. They open the season with games against the 49ers, Packers, and Ravens, a brutal draw assuming Aaron Rodgers stays in Green Bay.

We’re about to find out what Goff looks like without Sean McVay, and it probably won’t be pretty. Stafford has been the only thing keeping that team afloat, and with Lynn running the offense the floor will be very low.

The Chicago Bears brought in veteran QB Andy Dalton this offseason and even went as far as announcing him as QB1 ahead of the draft, but then they took Justin Fields with the 11th overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft. While they haven’t retracted that Dalton is their QB1, I wouldn’t be shocked if we do in fact see Fields light up training camp and force Matt Nagy’s hand.

Getting Fields at 11 could end up being the steal of the draft and in a year where Matt Nagy’s job is likely on the line, I’m not sure he can play it safe with the experienced Dalton who failed to get anything going on a better Dallas Cowboys team last season.

In Nagy’s final year as offensive coordinator in Kansas City, the Chiefs had drafted and sat Patrick Mahomes behind Alex Smith, a luxury that Nagy would love to have here with Fields in Chicago, but it’s simply a luxury he doesn’t have. I’m riding with Fields to show enough to secure the Week 1 starting role at +200.

Unless the Broncos can pull off the biggest offseason move and make something happen with the Packers to land league MVP Aaron Rodgers, the 2021 QB competition in Denver looks set to be between Drew Lock and Teddy Bridgewater.

The Broncos traded for Teddy Bridgewater ahead of the draft to add competition, experience, and a veteran presence to the Broncos’ quarterback room, but that doesn’t necessarily mean the Broncos are out on Drew Lock — not yet, anyway.

One of the biggest reasons for the Broncos to stick with Lock over Teddy is his athleticism and upside. Lock is bigger, faster, and certainly has a stronger arm than Bridgewater, and while this hasn’t always resulted in success for Lock, with 15 interceptions and 8 fumbles in 2020, Bridgewater wasn’t as safe with the ball as he often gets painted as being, with 11 interceptions and 6 fumbles of his own.

The Broncos also brought back Pat Shurmur as offensive coordinator for some continuity, and there wouldn’t be much continuity without Lock returning as the starter. I’m surprised the odds have Lock and Teddy so close, with FanDuel having them both at +145, and I think there is value there in taking Lock to be the Week 1 starter with Rodgers likely staying put in Green Bay.

Before you are left open-mouthed by this huge number, keep in mind that the NFL season has expanded to 17 games from 16. That makes Lawrence’s quota of 4,150.5 passing yards at least somewhat understandable — but you still have to like the under. The former Clemson standout would have to average more than 244 yards per game, and that’s even if he stays healthy for all 17 weeks. In a Jacksonville Jaguars offense led by head coach Urban Meyer and Darrell Bevell that will probably feature a run-first mentality, soaring way over the 4,000-yard mark will be difficult. Also, note the fact that Jacksonville’s 2021 opponents include the AFC East and NFC West. There are some stout defenses in that lineup, especially when it comes to stopping the pass.

Whereas Trevor Lawrence often played against the best of the best during his college, Wilson was stuck on an independent team trying — and often failing — to find worthwhile opponents. Facing the likes of the Buffalo Bills, Miami Dolphins, and New England Patriots twice in a season is going to be a whole different beast. Although Wilson threw only 15 total interceptions in his three-year college career, nine of those came in nine games during the 2019 campaign. He can make mistakes — and probably will on an offense that is still many pieces away from being good.

The Ravens have disappointed in the playoffs for the past couple of years, which has created some value. Baltimore has been a consistent regular-season winner, and I don’t think the Browns are about to overtake them in the AFC North. Fade the Cleveland hype.

Lamar Jackson was the unanimous MVP a couple of seasons ago for a reason. He’s going to enter 2021 with a big chip on his shoulder thanks to their postseason letdowns, which is a scary thought for the rest of the league. The Ravens, not the Bills, can be the biggest threat to the Chiefs in the AFC.

Kansas City has won the AFC in back-to-back years, and they would’ve won it in 2018 too if not for a Dee Ford offsides penalty. I don’t see any reason to believe they’ll be worse than last year, and in fact they could be a good amount better.

The Chiefs have completely overhauled their offensive line, ensuring Patrick Mahomes won’t be running for his life like he was in the Super Bowl. Not counting Week 17, when they rested their starters, the Chiefs lost only one regular-season game last year.

For a bet at longer odds, you’re looking for something special like 25 sacks from Myles Garrett (+18000 to win), or at a more realistic level, a sensational sophomore season from JUSTIN HERBERT (+2000).

The Los Angeles Chargers passer looked the real deal in his first NFL campaign, passing for 4,336 yards and 31 touchdowns. The 2020 Rookie of the Year could progress to the senior award if he can turn the 7-9 Chargers into an 11 or 12-win team.

Patrick Mahomes looks an extremely solid favorite and, barring injury, must have the best chance, even though opposing AFC defenses have now been shown a way of stopping him by Tampa Bay in Super Bowl LV.

But if there is to be a new name on the list, Buffalo’s JOSH ALLEN could be the man. It’s hard to express how far he has come since his wayward first steps in the NFL and he looks a prime candidate to have the strong regular season and playoff exit that fits the pattern of previous winners.

It’s also worth noting that Mahomes and Allen were the only two players other than Rodgers to garner votes last season. Allen was runner-up with four votes, while Mahomes got just two, so the Buffalo man is clearly on the judges’ radar already.