NFL Picks

We’ve got one heck of a Monday Night Football matchup on deck as the Baltimore Ravens make the trip to Raymond James Stadium to take on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Both teams currently hold 4-2 records, but it’s arguable that the Ravens are the best team in the NFL right now. Since losing its first 2 games, Baltimore has won 4 straight in which it has scored at least 28 points in every game. The addition of Derrick Henry was expected to be a major boost for this offense, but I doubt anyone could have quite expected the total domination he and Lamar Jackson are doing on the ground. Henry has hit at least 132 rushing yards in 3 of his last 4 games and the Ravens are averaging an insane 5.9 yards per carry by far the most in the NFL. They now come up against a Bucs defense that ranks bottom 10 in yards per carry allowed and has given up the 8th-most rushing touchdowns in the league. On top of the ground game, Jackson has exceeded 320 passing yards in each of his last 2 games and this offense looks unstoppable right now.

As for the Bucs, they have shot out to a 4-2 record with Baker Mayfield looking red hot, having already thrown 15 touchdown passes already. His rapport with Mike Evans and Chris Godwin is among the best in the NFL and they could take advantage of a Ravens defense that has allowed the most passing yards per attempt in the NFL. Ultimately, this one has all the makings of a shootout but I still like the Ravens to outscore Tampa and eventually pull away. The Bucs have allowed at least 26 points in 3 of their last 4 games and let Kirk Cousins post 509 passing yards in their last primetime matchup. This Ravens team looks like a juggernaut and should once again highlight its Super Bowl credentials.

Ravens vs Buccaneers prediction: Ravens -3.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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This is a fairly high number but I’m still leaning towards the Over. As mentioned in the point spread writeup, these 2 offenses are absolutely on fire right now. Lamar Jackson continues to be a threat on the ground alongside Derrick Henry, but his increased production in the passing game makes it feel almost impossible to stop this offense. Baltimore has scored 106 points in its last 3 games alone and should be able to punish a Bucs defense that has given up 36 and 27 points in its last 2.

Meanwhile, the Buccaneers have also been hot on the ground with both Sean Tucker and Bucky Irving running riot. They rank 2nd to the Ravens in yards per carry (5.2) and themselves have scored 114 points in their last 3, including putting 51 on the Saints last week. While I can see both teams tightening up a little with plenty on the line tonight, each offense has been too hot to expect any significant cooldown. I expected this line to be in the 50s, so I see some value in taking the Over at this number.

Ravens vs Buccaneers pick: Over 49.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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Derrick Henry player prop lines have become almost unbettable in some cases because of the success he has had out of the gate. His TD odds are nearly -200 across all books and his rushing totals are resting in the mid-80s. I’m going to slightly zag this week based on the matchup against Tampa Bay. Justice Hill has been quiet these last 2 weeks, but he has been praised for how he has held up in pass blocking. Many would be shocked to know that Hill played 46.5% of snaps to Henry’s 54% and this is a matchup that Hill can really thrive in as the 3rd-down back.

The Bucs rank 31st in targets to opposing running backs on the season (48) and receptions (39). Hill has hit this in 3 of 6 games so far and I believe he will see a snap boost for his pass-blocking prowess against a Bucs defense that ranks 8th overall in blitz rate. At some point, offensive coordinator Todd Monken will draw up a play for Hill that makes Tampa Bay pay for that move. His median rush attempts are at 4 with a 4.75 YPC to match, giving us a baseline of about 17 rush yards to be added to a higher upside in the passing game. I’m riding with Hill on Monday night.

With the Tampa Bay Buccaneers having question marks in their backfield and Mike Evans being out of practice to begin the week and limited on Saturday, Chris Godwin is the one reliable target that the Buccaneers have. He’s logged at least 9 targets in 3 of the last 4 weeks, including 5 red-zone targets over that span. Moving Godwin primarily to the slot has worked wonders for himself and Baker Mayfield. Look for Mayfield to look his way when entering Baltimore territory.

The Baltimore Ravens tight end room is a betting and fantasy managers nightmare. But Isaiah Likely continues to outsnap Mark Andrews and is still a top target of Lamar Jacksons — especially down in the red zone. Apart from the show he put on in the season opener against the Kansas City Chiefs, Likely has logged just 3 red-zone targets since, but all 3 have come over the last 2 weeks. Likely is capable of creating a ton of separation with his 6’4″ frame. I’m expecting him to build off his 48-air-yard performance last week, which was his most since Week 1. At +300 odds, Likely has a ton of value to find the end zone.

One of the major storylines through 6 weeks is that Jim Harbaugh, despite his many doubters, has clearly turned things around for the Chargers. At 3-2, Los Angeles sits at second in the AFC West, below the mighty Chiefs, but the energy is optimistic (for once) in Southern California. The Bolts allow the fewest points (13.2) and fewest TDs (1.4) per game, and they completely stifle their opponents from making explosive plays (0.235 in opponent points per play, 2nd overall). Their offense is obviously in transition, depleted at wide receiver and thus turning to the run game (the Chargers run the ball on 52.4% of plays, 3rd-most in the league), and they’ve made the most out of it. They’re a low-scoring team (18.2 ppg, 26th), but they’re also 10th in 3rd-down conversion rate (42.47%) and top-10 in rushing yards per game. They have a good matchup on Monday night, since the Cardinals are one of the worst defenses in the NFL, particularly against the run (allowing 153 rushing yards per game, good for 29th). We’re just not so sure that Harbaugh’s team deserves this much early love, especially considering the quarterback they’re facing this week. 

Kyler Murray is an unusual character – short, hyper-athletic, incredibly quick and he throws one of the prettiest spirals in the NFL. Besides Patrick Mahomes, the Bolts have yet to face any elite throwers this season, and even Mahomes doesn’t have the mobility and speed of Murray at 100%. The former Oklahoma star has only thrown 2 interceptions in 6 games, and he’s 3rd (behind only Lamar Jackson and Jayden Daniels) in QB rushing yards (261). Off an embarrassing loss at Green Bay, we expect to see the best of the Cardinals’ offense, even if they’ll be without 1st-round draft pick Marvin Harrison Jr., who suffered a concussion in Week 6. 

This is also the definition of a buy-low spot on Arizona, at home, in a desperate inflection point already this season, and a sell-high spot on the Chargers. Harbaugh’s boys are obviously improved, but giving more than 2 points, on the road, against a feisty Cardinals’ squad that’s already beaten the 49ers and Rams is an awfully assertive valuation. Following a week where road favorites went 9-0 ATS only inflates this number, too. The home pooch looks too good to pass up, who should be considered live to win this straight up.

Chargers vs Cardinals prediction: Cardinals +2.5 (+100) available at time of publishing. Playable to +1.5.

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Oddsmakers are indicating that big-money bettors are investing in the Over in the second Monday Night Football game, and we’re inclined to agree. For starters, the Arizona defense, despite having a defensive specialist as their coach in Jonathan Gannon, continues to underperform. It’s clear that their roster just needs more help, since we’ve seen obvious and considerable negative regression since the start of the season. Last week, Jordan Love and the Packers’ offense torched Arizona, stacking up 437 yards and 34 points, including an explosive 24-point first half. Arizona’s defense looked lost for most of the contest. And like we said in our spread analysis, Kyler Murray adds an intangible that the Chargers’ defense hasn’t seen before.

As a whole, the Cardinals’ offense hasn’t been all that bad, either. Their wide-receiver depth took a hit last Sunday when first-round draft pick, Marvin Harrison Jr., suffered a concussion, but they just activated speedster Zay Jones, who could make an immediate impact in Harrison’s absence. They also run the ball well (5.3 yards per carry, 3rd overall), and Murray’s ability to extend plays and scramble for first downs (he’s 3rd in QB rushing yards) can create big plays. 

Lastly, the Chargers’ pass defense has been pretty average, especially considering their opponents. Besides Patrick Mahomes, the Chargers have faced Gardner Minshew, Bryce Young, Justin Fields and Bo Nix. Kyler is a different breed, and Arizona will be motivated to redeem themselves after last week, back on their home turf.

Chargers vs Cardinals pick: Over 44 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 44.5.

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The Chargers run zone defense at the highest rate in the NFL and they are highly successful at it, but I’m willing to attack this line at the price we’re getting. With McBride seeing a 25 percent target share against zone defense and Murray’s pass attempt line juiced to the over on 31.5, we can safely project 8 targets for McBride on Monday night. When he sees 8 or more targets this season, he hits this mark in 2 of 3 games — with the 1 miss landing on the hook. The total at 44.5 would indicate some back-and-forth to this matchup and much attention will be given to Harrison Jr. in his return. 1u.

This is a line that I could see being flipped by the time we get to late November, so for our 49ers vs Bills prediction, why not take a shot with one of the best home teams in football? Prior to this Sunday Night Football matchup in Week 13, the 49ers will have played a 5-game stretch consisting of the Chiefs, Cowboys, Buccaneers, Seahawks and Packers. Not only were 4 of those 5 teams in the playoffs last season, but the 49ers will have just played the Packers at Lambeau Field in a massive revenge spot for Green Bay the week prior to this contest. On the other hand, the Bills will be coming off a much-needed bye week after completing a pivotal 8-game stretch of their schedule.

There’s an argument to be made that the 49ers are overvalued in the market heading into this season, so this number could easily be Bills -2.5 by the time we hit kickoff. Yes, Buffalo can be frustrating in close games against lesser competition, but Josh Allen and company have typically risen to the occasion in these home spots (see: last season vs Miami & Dallas), so it’s hard not to back the Bills as home underdogs in this one for our 49ers vs Bills best bet.

49ers vs Bills prediction: Bills ML (+110) available at time of publishing.

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