NFL Picks

What we have on Thursday night are 2 teams simply trending in different directions. The Seahawks, riddled with injuries, have fallen back to Earth. The Cowboys, healthy for the most part, have been beating up on the inferior opposition in front of them — especially at home. They’re outscoring opponents 205-60 at AT&T Stadium. It’s what they’ve done all season long. The heavyweights of the NFC? That’s a different story. The Seahawks are closer to a non-factor than a heavyweight, and this is simply just a spot that Dallas crushes. Seattle got crushed by the 49ers at home on Thanksgiving, so there won’t even be a rest advantage for them in this one. Seattle struggled with the pass rush all night against San Francisco, and Dallas is likely going to show them similar looks with Micah Parsons and that monstrous defensive line. This is a defense that has just clamped down on offenses for the most part, not having allowed a 100-yard rusher or receiver all season long. It’s very difficult to see a path of success for the Seahawks in this one with Geno Smith already battling injury himself. You’re paying a steep price here by laying 9 points, but the price on the Cowboys has been expensive all season long and it just hasn’t mattered against these underperforming teams. This has the feel of a double-digit win where Dallas continues to roll against a team that’s losing ground by the day.

Cowboys -9 available at time of publishing. Playable to -9.5.

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It feels silly at this point to bet overs on primetime but I think there’s a decent chance Dallas could score 40 on their own. Let’s take a look at the last few home games. There were 55 combined points last week against the Commanders, 66 on November 12 against the Giants and 63 on October 29 against the Rams. The only times when Cowboys home games didn’t go over the total involved the New York Jets and New England Patriots. Maybe Daron Bland will add to his record with a sixth pick-six this season. Since the Cowboys’ bye week, Dak Prescott has been one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL. He’s playing efficient, mistake-free football. On the other hand, Geno Smith is not. There is serious potential for a scoop and score or pick-six in this one from Seattle. The Cowboys should be able to run up the score like always against lesser opposition and that will likely mean a lot of points in Dallas on Thursday.

Over 47 available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

Fading Prescott right now is borderline insanity, but please stay with me. The Seattle Seahawks have one of the best CB duos in the league and run zone defense the 2nd-most in the NFL on passing downs. I reviewed Prescott’s performances against other teams that run a high frequency of zone coverage: against San Francisco (14th-most zone) he had 153 yards, against Carolina (3rd) he had 189 yards and against Arizona (4th) he had 249 yards. CeeDee Lamb, his WR1, has been on a tear of late, but thrives against man coverage, pumping Prescott’s stats in the other direction. I do not expect Prescott to struggle on Thursday night, but reaching the 280.5-yard mark is not something he’s done with any type of consistency against these zone-heavy defenses this season.

The Seahawks look set to be without starting RB Kenneth Walker once more on TNF, which leaves rookie Zach Charbonnet leading their ground attack. He clearly has talent, but odds of just -110 with FanDuel aren’t great for a player who has yet to score a touchdown in the NFL, and nor does the best current offer of +130 with BetMGM for that matter. I much prefer the value we’re getting with another Seahawks rookie, wide receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba, who has nice big odds of +340 at FanDuel and +375 with Bet365. Unlike Charbonnet, JSN has already opened his NFL account with 2 receiving TDs, which might not sound a lot, but it’s only 1 behind DK Metcalf, who has had 23 more targets but only 5 more receptions.

The former Ohio State star has not yet made the impact in the NFL of his college teammates Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave, but that kind of efficiency should earn him the trust of his quarterback and head coach and get him increasingly involved in the offense. The Cowboys’ top defensive backs will likely be deployed stopping Metcalf and Tyler Lockett, which should mean chances for Smith-Njigba to make his mark in the national spotlight.

Brandin Cooks has reached the end zone in 4 of the Cowboys’ last 6 games after adding a 31-yard score in the Cowboys’ 45-10 Thanksgiving Day rout of the Commanders. With QB Dak Prescott having amassed 17 TD passes in his last 5 games, the opportunities should be there for Cooks to add to his tally against a Seahawks defense that has been almost equally vulnerable to scores by RBs and WRs this season.

Cooks has scored in 3 straight home games for the Cowboys and has a total of 13 catches on 15 targets for 245 yards and 2 TDs in those games against the Giants and Commanders. While there are no plus-money offers for the Cowboys’ leading receiver, CeeDee Lamb, to score a touchdown, Cooks can be had at much more attractive +260 odds with FanDuel, even though he is just +190 at BetMGM.

In an instant Kenny Pickett and the Steelers’ offense looked worlds better without former OC, Matt Canada. Picket seemed more confident, leading an offense that, dare I say, finally had an explosive component to it. Pickett averaged 7.7 yards per pass and the Pittsburgh offense eclipsed 400 yards for the first time in their last 58 games. While they barely eked by the Bengals in points (16-10), the black and yellow dominated Cincinnati for the majority of the contest. Some red-zone woes (1-4) were less than impressive, but overall the Steelers were more fluid and certainly more productive than what we’re used to seeing. Their defense was predictably effective against a Burrow-less Bengals’ offense, holding them to 222 yards and sacking Jake Browning four times. 

Just three weeks ago Kyler Murray returned and led the Cardinals to a comeback victory against the Falcons at home, an appropriate comeback-game for a former #1 pick. Now that feels like a distant memory. Arizona looks as mediocre as ever the last two weeks, getting dominated on both sides of the field for large stretches. Murray is struggling to ignite an offense with underwhelming talent all while he’s still readjusting to his starting role. Jonathan Gannon may be a good coach for seasons to come but the Arizona-defense hasn’t benefited from his legacy. They’re undisciplined and often porous against high-level QBs. 

The Steelers’ offense may be improved, but a one-week sample size doesn’t change a full season of evidence that it has its setbacks. Matt Canada or no Matt Canada. The Steelers are 3-1 ATS as a favorite but they’ve never been given more than 3-points. Frankly it feels like sharps and oddsmakers are overcorrecting this line, granting too much steam to the favorite in what could very well be a let down spot. Kyler Murray is still a playmaker, and at this point he’s fighting for his reputation and career. It’s gross, but it’s Cardinals or nothing.

Arizona +5.5 available at time of publishing. Playable to 4.5

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Steelers’ games usually create low totals. Even though their offense was considerably better in Week 12, we still see a mere 41 points as the listed number. It’s worth noting that many NFL teams are laboring to reach 20 points on a regular basis, so 41 points doesn’t feel as low as it usually does this season. Regardless, oddsmakers are betting that while the Pittsburgh offense may be better, they still won’t produce at a prolific level. We tend to agree with that sentiment, for the Arizona offense, too. 

Kyler Murray is the wildcard in this game. He’s a generational talent, but he’s taking way too many sacks (7 the last two weeks) and he hasn’t formed chemistry with his WRs yet, completing just 62% of passes. We think he can keep this game close, but that doesn’t mean the Cardinals are scoring 3-4 touchdowns. Arizona has been a bottom feeder offense all season (17.2 ppg), and even with Murray back they’ve only averaged 18 ppg. A road game at Pittsburgh presents one of the tougher environments in pro-football, especially with monsters like TJ Watt lurking. 

The Pittsburgh offense may produce at a higher-rate, but they’re far from a well-oiled machine. Last week their struggles in the red-zone and in converting third downs kept their game against Cincinnati closer than it should have been. This week it’ll likely be something else that limits their scoreboard. In any case, we’re not ready to expect a different brand of game from Pittsburgh.

Under 41 available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

One of the tougher matchups of the week is a pivotal game between two playoff-hopeful teams as Denver takes their 5-game winning streak on the road to face CJ Stroud and the surprisingly formidable Texans. We haven’t seen Stroud come off a big divisional loss yet (Week 2 they lost to the Colts, but it didn’t feel “important”), but we imagine the kid will bring his A-game. Houston and their prolific offense (top-10 in points per game, yards per game, yards per play, and 3rd down conversion rate) has a favorable schedule ahead, so this shouldn’t be considered a “must-win” just yet, but we expect the same fire and tenacity that Stroud shows every week on the field. The Texans nearly mounted a comeback last week in a tough loss to Jacksonville, but a missed 60 yard field promptly ended the affair.

We could break down all of Denver’s wins the last five weeks and we could question how impressed we should be, but the fact remains– the Broncos have found something, they believe in Sean Payton’s culture, and the results are speaking for themselves. Denver’s win last week was impressive, even against a backup QB for Cleveland, because the Broncos’ offense scored 29 points on one of the league’s premiere defenses. It marked the fourth game in a row where they eclipsed 20 points. Their defense is also playing considerably better, allowing just 16 ppg along their 5-game stretch of victories. Russell Wilson seems to be getting more confident every week, and the Broncos are playing downhill, hard-nosed football. They out-muscled the Browns in Week 12; not an easy task!

It would be easy to take Houston playing at home. Denver has won four out of their last five games at Mile-High Stadium, and they’re only road win came in a very close matchup at Buffalo back in Week 10. Still, we simply can’t ignore their momentum. These two teams present as evenly matched, and that gives automatic value to the pooch.

Broncos +3.5 available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The total is a few ticks too high for the nature of this contest. Sure the Broncos look better offensively, and they’re facing a defense that’s bottom-third in most statistical categories, but Houston’s defense matches up well. The Broncos prefer to run the ball (44.83% of plays, 7th overall), which fits perfectly into what the Texans do best. They’re 3rd in opponent rush yards per attempt (3.6) and stingier up front than many might think. Derek Stingley Jr.’s return has paid dividends in a growing secondary, too, but they can be exposed against elite QBs. Joe Burrow and Trevor Lawrence recently had nice outings against the Houston resistance, but we’re not sure if Wilson should still be considered in the same cadre of throwers. He’s played better, but Houston is at home and no-doubt angry coming off a big loss. 

The Denver Broncos’ defense is one of the most improved units in the NFL. Not long ago they were the butt of everyone’s jokes, giving up 164 points in Weeks 2-5 and looking like one of the worst groups of all time. Since Week 6, they’ve only permitted 16.5 ppg, and that’s come against some really solid offenses (KC x2, Buffalo, Minnesota). CJ Stroud will get his, but it’s reasonable to assume it won’t be an easy feat. Patrick Majomes, Josh Allen, Jordan Love and other throwers have struggled mightily against Denver’s defense in November. The Houston run-game could catch fire against a defense that still looks porous against superior ground games, but the Texans’ rushing attack has been mostly mediocre. In only two games have one of their running backs surpassed 100 yards (Singletary against Cincinnati and Arizona). 

This appears to be a good matchup for both defenses. It’s also not a great recipe for points considering how motivated both teams should be. Both squads are fighting for their playoff lives. With that comes an added intensity and aggression, which viewers mostly see playing out on defense. It’s not one of our favorite wagers, but 47.5 feels too high.

Under 47.5 available at time of publishing. Playable to 47.

It felt like every NFL fan in the world was cheering for the upstart Detroit Lions in the Thanksgiving opener, except Packers’ fans of course. Likely feeling the newfound pressure of being considered one of the elite NFC contenders, the Lions stumbled. Green Bay came out on fire, surgically moving the ball downfield and capitalizing off an early Jared Goff turnover. The game fell over early, despite Detroit’s efforts to rally a comeback. In any case, last week’s failure doesn’t affect our power ratings or perception on Dan Campbell’s team. The Lions have been playing consistently well all season, except for some defensive hiccups here and there, and we expect them to answer the call this Sunday against a team that we’re trusting less with each passing week.

Somehow someway the New Orleans Saints find ways to blow games. Last week they gained 444 total yards, they’re best output of the season, but they could only muster 15 points from it. More turnovers, more bad play-calls and bad execution in the red-zone (0-5), more clumsy happenings on third down (6-14) – it happens in various ways but the fact of the matter is that New Orleans simply can’t get out of their own way. Derek Carr is visibly upset every week, and we’re not sure Dennis Allen has the chops to remedy the situation. His defense is good, but they’re not good enough to overcome the Saints’ many in-game flops. This is a situation reminiscent of what’s happening to the L.A. Chargers, and it suggests serious leadership problems.

New Orleans is talented, but this is a major coaching mismatch. Dan Campbell is already one of the great motivators at head coach. At 8-3, the Lions can’t afford to lose another game if they still want a shot at the NFC’s #1 seed. With Philly’s agonizingly tough schedule ahead, they might still get their shot. Meanwhile, the lack of chemistry between Dennis Allen and the Saints’ offense has created a cyclically disappointing operation. That’s not something we can get behind. Over a field-goal for a road-favorite, even one as good as Detroit, is never easy to wager on, but we simply can’t wager on the hyper-flawed Saints.

Lions -4 available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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Regardless of the amount of points the Saints put up last weekend, they still gained plenty of yards. New Orleans was explosive for once, averaging a whopping 6.6 yards per play and accumulating 22 first downs against a solid Falcons’ defense. Every week we say, “eventually, the Saints’ offense will put together a complete game,” but it really hasn’t come to be. Contrarily, Week 13 could present a good matchup. 

We’ve seen the Lions’ defense play at a very high level. We’ve also seen them look a lot like last season’s (very flawed) group. Most analysts will attribute last week’s Detroit loss to a series of mistakes, like losing the turnover battle 0-3 and giving Green Bay a short field on more than one occasion. That’s true, but their defense didn’t help. Jordan Love sliced and diced the Lions’ secondary every time he stepped on the field, averaging an impressive 8.4 yards per pass. That marks the third week in a row that Detroit’s defense has been torched by an enemy offense. Justin Herbert and Justin Fields both had their way with the Motor City-D. 

This is a toughie. The Lions’ offense is more consistent and we expect them to correct their mistakes from last week. Even against a solid Saints’ resistance, we trust their skill and coaching. The quandary is a very questionable Saints’ offense and how much we anticipate improvement from the Lions’ defense. It comes down to another huge coaching advantage for Detroit, which leads us not only to our answer on the spread, but the total as well.

Under 47 available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

We’ve got a fun one here in Week 13 as the Washington Commanders get ready to host the Miami Dolphins. Ron Rivera’s seat is getting hotter by the week, and he just fired defensive coordinator Jack Del Rio as a last-gasp attempt to get things back on track following three straight losses. Unfortunately, I think it’s re-arranging deck chairs on the Titanic at this point. Firing Del Rio isn’t going to fix a defense that just gave up 45 points to the Cowboys on Thanksgiving overnight. And the Dolphins are quite used to blowing out inferior opponents, so I’m laying the points with them here. In fact, five of their past six wins have come by 14+ points, so I’m not too worried about needing them to win this one by double digits to cover. Washington quarterback Sam Howell is fun to watch at times, but he also makes some back-breaking mistakes (like his pick-six against Dallas last week) and takes a ton of sacks.

Incredibly, Howell has taken at least three sacks in all but one game this season. Washington isn’t just coming off an ugly loss to the Cowboys, as their previous game was somehow even more embarrassing. The week before, they lost 31-19 to Tommy DeVito and the Giants. The Commanders are just 1-5 in their last six games, and their only win in that span came by three points against a horrific Patriots team. Their only home win of the season came all the way back in Week 1 against the lowly Cardinals, so I’m not giving them any credit for home-field advantage here. The organization has made it very clear Rivera isn’t going to be back next season, and it feels like the team is just playing out the string. Expect the Dolphins to capitalize and run up the score like they often do.

Dolphins -9.5 available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

I like the over even more in this game, as I’m not expecting much from either defense. For starters, Miami’s offense has the highest ceiling of any team in the league, and they’re getting to face a unit that has been getting torched so bad they had to fire their DC mid-season. The Commanders traded away both Chase Young and Montez Sweat at the trade deadline, completely neutralizing their one defensive strength which was in the trenches. Washington has given up at least 29 points in eight of their last 11 games, including to some offenses with nowhere near as much talent as Miami.

Nobody can slow down Tyreek Hill, and especially not this abysmal Commanders secondary. Tua Tagovailoa just averaged over 8 yards per attempt while the team scored 34 points in a win against an elite Jets defense that had Sauce Gardner matched up on Hill, so I think they’ll be just fine here. In five of the Dolphins’ past six wins they’ve scored at least 31+ points, so I also think this play correlates nicely with our Dolphins -9.5 spread bet.

Over 49.5 available at time of publishing. Playable up to 50.5.

Almost as soon as the spread came out on this big NFC showdown, the number moved from San Francisco +1 to -1.5 within an hour. Now it sits at -3, for good reason. We could go over all the statistics you already know about these two elite teams, but that’s not what this handicap is about. Of course both teams are among the best not only in their conference, they’re each in the top-3 favorites to take home the Lombardi Trophy this season. The difference in Sunday’s matchup is that one team is due for massive negative regression. It helps that their opponent has big-time revenge on their mind, too.

The Philadelphia Eagles have been outgained by at least 98 yards per game in four straight wins. In short, their defense has been a problem. Meanwhile, Brock Purdy has been perfect in three wins since the 49ers’ bye week, leading his offense to 31 points per game against three good defenses (JAX, TB, SEA). San Francisco’s star left tackle and arguably the best offensive lineman in the NFL Trent Williams has been a difference maker since he returned from injury several weeks back, and the offense is healthy all-around heading into Sunday. 

Jalen Hurts has been impeccable. He’s the single-biggest-reason why Philly just keeps on winning, despite some of their lackluster play defensively, but the damn always breaks eventually. The Eagles have allowed 430 yards per game in the last four weeks, and San Francisco will undoubtedly have extra motivation after they lost to Philly last year in the NFC title game where they had no quarterback for three quarters. The Birds also have Dallas on deck in an NFC East showdown at AT&T Stadium the following week. This is an ideal confluence of factors for a team that, unlike the other squads Philly has faced, is too talented and too poised to drop the ball when given an opportunity.

49ers -2.5 available at time of publishing. Playable to 3.

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There’s a reason why four of the Eagles’ last five games have eclipsed their listed total in Week 13. As we alluded to in our write-up on the spread, Philly’s defense has not been good throughout November. Allowing 430 points and 26 points per game in their last four contests, Philly’s defense is showing signs of lethargy. Indeed, the back half of the Eagles’ schedule has been terribly difficult and they’ve faced some of the best offenses in the NFL, so some of it is understandable. Miami, Washington, Dallas, Kansas City, Buffalo– not one matchup presented an easy challenge for last year’s NFC Champion, and it won’t get any easier this week either. 

San Francisco can take advantage of Eagles’ defensive holes in myriad ways. At 6.4 yards per play, only the Dolphins own a more explosive offense. No QB in football is more accurate than Brock Purdy (70.2% completion percentage), and the Niners’ 8.9 yards per pass is the most prolific passing attack in the NFL. Like the Eagles, their running back and wide-receivers are as talented as any in the league, and it’ll take a herculean effort for the Eagles to fend them off all game. Off 10 days of rest, we imagine Kyle Shanahan, who we consider one of the best play-callers of our generation, to unleash plenty of creativity in his game plan this Sunday. Reports are surfacing that Fletcher Cox, a staple of their defensive line and leader on the Eagles for many years, may sit out with a groin injury. In any case, a marquee game of this magnitude with two offenses that have been near-perfect in execution feels like a recipe for plenty of points, and if Hurts or Purdy are playing from behind, we trust each quarterback to catch up.

Don’t look now, but the Packers are on a bit of a heater. After a putrid start to the year, the Packers pulled off a huge upset Thanksgiving – and handled the Lions the entire way. Jordan Love was tremendous, putting together the best game of his career and from the very first play of the game on a deep route to Christian Watson. Love finished with 325 yards and 3 touchdowns with a quarterback rating of 125.5. There’s no denying how strong a performance it was for the first-year full-time starter, but it was also a perfect storm. The Lions’ secondary was already a soft spot – and they are primarily a unit that lives in zone coverage. For this game, specifically, they ran pretty much nothing but man coverage, flipping their personnel upside down and betting that Love wouldn’t be able to make the throws in one-on-one coverage. Unfortunately for Detroit, that’s exactly what he did, and the Lions just simply never adjusted. It’ll be a different set of circumstances entirely against the Chiefs, who continue to wreak havoc on opposing offenses.

After being down 14-0 against the Raiders last week in the 2nd quarter, the Chiefs held them to just 3 points for the remainder of the game – in Las Vegas. They’re continuing to dominate and they should be in a prime spot to do it again on Sunday night against the Packers. They’ll primarily play man coverage, but the key difference is that’s what they do every week and they’re one of the best teams in the NFL at it. Even if Aaron Jones returns, it should be a much more difficult challenge for Love coming off a massive win on Thanksgiving. The Chiefs have work to do to keep up with the Ravens for the coveted 1-seed in the AFC, and to do so they’ll need to make sure they don’t stub their toe against worse teams. We’ll take the Chiefs inside a touchdown, even at Lambeau.

Chiefs -6 available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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December at Lambeau. High of 37. Yep, we’re getting to that time of year. Oh, and we have to consider the voodoo hex of primetime unders and their ridiculous hit rate in 2023. If we think the Chiefs shut down Jordan Love in a way that the Lions couldn’t, we’re better off taking the under in this spot. It feels like a letdown spot for Green Bay in every way. They’re going from a bitter rival who made a strategic mistake defensively and never adjusted, to stepping up drastically in competition, even if it is at home. If Love continues to find success, Andy Reid and the Chiefs will adjust. They’re just simply not going to sit on their hands the way the Lions mostly did defensively. Love is likely in for a very challenging night. Meanwhile, it’s not as if Kansas City’s offense has exactly been lighting it up. They did pour it on the Raiders but that’s been a hapless defense all season that’s had some good breaks, for the most part. The Packers, with all their playmakers, should be able to get the Chiefs off the field enough to keep this a relatively low-scoring game.

Under 42.5 available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

I’m front-loading my best bets with games in the early stages of the season, as this late into it there is no telling how things might stand. That being said, a great second-half bet to make right now is on San Francisco to cover a field goal at home against Baltimore on Christmas. Lamar Jackson is back, but will he still be healthy and starting for the Ravens in Week 16? There are no guarantees for anyone – and certainly not for Jackson. The 49ers are the better team, anyway, and they are playing at home. So this play looks good even if Baltimore’s franchise quarterback is on the field.