NBA Picks

The Cleveland Cavaliers looked comfortable in the first 2 games of the series, winning both by at least a 9-point margin. They should be well positioned to keep that momentum going in Game 3 in Miami. The Heat have had issues defending their home court this season, finishing the regular season with a 19-22 record. The Cavaliers, on the other hand, have thrived on the road. Their point differential of 7.4 in those games is good enough for third in the NBA. Their defensive performances have been a huge part of that. Having the recently crowned Defensive Player of the Year in Evan Mobley positions them perfectly to lock down the Heat once more.

Another major issue facing the Heat is the fact that they simply cannot slow down their opponents. With Donovan Mitchell and Darius Garland both consistently and effectively picking on Tyler Herro, the Cavaliers’ offense has been rolling. In fact, they currently have the best offensive rating of all teams in the NBA playoffs. They have also been making an incredible 45.5% of their 3-point attempts, effectively negating the rim protection that Bam Adebayo and Kel’el Ware are able to offer. With the team in such a roll, going on the road should not be an issue. Let’s back Cleveland to cover the spread.

Cavaliers vs Heat prediction: Cleveland -5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable t0 -7.

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We might be heading towards our first sweep of the 2025 NBA Playoffs on Saturday as the OKC Thunder look to put the final nail in the coffin of the Memphis Grizzlies’ season. Memphis came out with a ton of energy in Game 3 and led by as many as 29 points, but the Thunder showed us why they finished the regular season 68-14 by coming back and winning 114-108. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander once again had an inefficient shooting game, but he did finish with 31 points to lead all scorers. Chet Holmgren and Jalen Williams each had 20+ to help out and now the Thunder are looking to sweep. Thursday’s win was their 7th in a row this season over the Grizz, but the first by single digits.

Ja Morant’s hip injury might have something to do with the Thunder rallying back from that massive deficit. He left the game with 3 minutes left in the first half after a nasty fall and his team put up just 31 points total over the final 24 minutes of play. With his status up in the air the Grizzlies are now 14.5-point underdogs with their season on the line. So far in 32 games he’s missed, Memphis has won 18 games and lost 14, which makes them a .563 pace win team. It is interesting to note that the offensive rating takes a jump from 117.6 with Morant to 119.9 without him in the lineup. Obviously, the Grizzlies are not the same team when their best player doesn’t play, so that could just be an indicator that they play at a much faster pace, sacrificing effort on the defensive end.

Closeout games are never easy to win, especially on the road. But, the Thunder have owned this matchup the entire year and are currently on a run of 12 wins in a row against Memphis stretching back to the 2022-23 season. I have OKC winning, but the spread looks a tad too high so let’s pivot to the points with the expectation that the Grizzlies won’t go down without a fight.

Thunder vs Grizzlies Game 4 prediction: Over 224.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The first-ever playoff game at the brand-new Intuit Dome lived up to the hype, with the Clippers steamrolling their way to a dominant 117-83 win in Game 3. At one point in the second quarter, L.A. unleashed a jaw-dropping 20+ point run, with Denver scoring 3 in between, flipping the game on its head and energizing the home crowd. Now leading 2-1 in the series, the Clippers look poised and far from finished. It’s turning into one of the most entertaining matchups of the postseason.

Game 1 was a heartbreaker for the Clippers, who controlled most of the game only to unravel in the fourth. Since then they have bounced back strong behind the inspired play of Kawhi Leonard, who erupted for 39 points in Game 2 and followed it with another efficient outing in Game 3. The supporting cast — James Harden and Norman Powell — also chipped in 20+ each, showing the depth that makes this team dangerous.

On the other side, the Nuggets have a lot less momentum. Nikola Jokic has been steady, nearly notching a triple-double in Game 1 and achieving one in the Game 2 loss. But the absence of head coach Michael Malone is beginning to show, especially in the team’s inability to adjust mid game. Russell Westbrook has been a bright spot, surprisingly leading Denver in hustle stats and second-chance plays grabbing a lot of offensive rebounds in the process. In a pivotal Game 4, don’t expect the Nuggets to go down 3-1 with at least a fight.

Nuggets vs Clippers prediction: Denver +6 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to +5.

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Game 3 of this Western Conference opening round series between Steph Curry and the veteran Warriors against the feisty, young and inexperienced Rockets should be a gritty, physical contest, much like what we saw in the first couple of games. However, while I was all over the Rockets in Game 2, I’m expecting a bounce-back effort from the Warriors at home on Saturday. Even factoring in that home court bump, I just can’t get there with Golden State given the uncertain status of Jimmy Butler. With that in mind, I’m going to stay away from taking a side and instead, I’ll back the under for a third straight game in this series. 

For starters, Houston has been known to fall into prolonged shooting droughts, and that was certainly the case in Game 1, as the Rockets shot below 40 percent from the field and finished just 6-29 (20.7%) from beyond the arc. Despite the fact that Houston bounced back from its shooting woes in a major way in Game 2, with both teams combining for 32 made threes, and the game still went under the closing total. There’s no reason not to expect more of the same here, and I’m a bit surprised that we haven’t seen a bit more of an adjustment in the market on this number. I’d expect the Rockets to regress a bit on offense, especially away from home in a tough environment, while the Warriors should get a friendlier whistle and amp up their defensive intensity a bit at home. The status of Jimmy Butler is crucial for this game, but Golden State is “cautiously optimistic” that the veteran forward will play on Saturday. Assuming Butler is in the lineup, the Warriors defense should put forth its best effort of the series, which leads me to believe that we’ll see a sluggish offensive effort from the Rockets. Including this series, 6 of the 7 games between these teams saw at least one team finish under 100 points this season, which should carry over into Saturday’s contest. I’ll take a shot on the under.

Rockets vs Warriors prediction: Under 204 available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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Once again the Knicks came up big when it mattered the most and now they have an opportunity to seize control over their series against the Pistons as the two teams meet in Game 4 this Sunday. A balanced attack led by KAT with 31 points and Jalen Brunson who added 30 was the key to Game 3, along with timely stops on the defensive end. New York built a 13-point lead at the half, that certainly helped calm the Pistons fans who saw their team host a postseason game for the first time in 6 years. Now the question is can the Knicks deliver the knockout punch? They’ve now won 9 times in 10 visits to Little Caesars Arena, plus over the last 20 meetings they’ve lost just 4 times.

The moment just looked too big for this young and inexperienced Pistons team in Game 3, even though the final score indicates they had a chance to win, the Knicks seemingly had the game under control. Along with the standard numbers of Cade Cunningham, Detroit got solid contributions from Tim Hardaway Jr., Jalen Duren and Dennis Schroder. Game 4 is all about adjustments, if there’s one thing they have to do in Sunday’s game it’s getting the veteran Tobias Harris going. He averages almost 3 points more in wins this season, while shooting over 50% from the field compared to just 44% in losses. Isaiah Stewart was dearly missed down low, the level of physicality went up a notch as the two teams combined to take 56 free throws on Thursday.

Going down 3-1 likely means the end of the road for the Pistons in Game 5, so they’ll be playing their hearts out on Sunday just to stay alive. Will that be enough? I believe it will. They’ve done so many good things this season, their fans at Little Caesars Arena deserve to see at least one win before this series is over. I’m taking the Pistons to level things up at 2-2 here.

Knicks vs Pistons Game 4 Predictions: Pistons -2 is available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.