NBA Picks

The Hornets have won just won game on the road this year, they are 1-6 in away contests. But that will be washed away quickly by the fact that Indiana has won just once this entire season. The question here is which side do you trust more? The team that has shown some level of competence who has also been a 50/50 proposition against the spread like Charlotte that struggles outside the Queen City or the Pacers who look like a dumpster fire?

We’re going to side with the latter. Why? Because this is a winnable game for Indiana, one for them to finally get that second win and perhaps work themselves back to some semblance of relevance. Opponents shoot well against the Hornets, they are 27th in opponent field goal percentage and 30th in opponent three-point percentage. When you add that profile with the fact they have won just once on the year all season, the question that should really be asked here is whether or not the Hornets should be laying points to anyone in this spot? The answer is no. Pacers win.

Hornets vs Pacers prediction: Pacers +100 (Money Line) available at time of publishing. Playable to the number.

The Houston Rockets hit the road for Northeast Ohio to battle the Cleveland Cavaliers in a marquee game at Rocket Arena. The Cavaliers are actually short ‘dogs at home, losing two of the past five outings, but they’re also a solid 7-2 straight up (SU) in the past nine games. However, the Cavs can’t be trusted, going just 2-4 against the spread (ATS) in the past six games, while going only 4-7 ATS in the past 11 games since Oct. 29. At home, they’re also 1-4 ATS in the past five outings, too. While the Under has cashed in the past two games, and they’re back without Darius Garland (toe), the Over is 6-2 across the past eight outings, while going 3-2 in the past five home contests.

For the Rockets, they’ve been on a Over run, cashing in six consecutive outings since Nov. 5, while going 9-1 in the past 10 outings, and 10-2 in 12 games overall this season. On the road, the Over has cashed in all six games this season. In this series, Houston has cashed in three in a row, and it has covered in three straight, too, and that’s likely why the Rockets are laying a bucket on the road. The Over is 3-1 in the past four meetings in this series since Dec. 18, 2023, while the winning team has scored 135 points each in the past two meetings in Cleveland.

Rockets vs Cavaliers prediction: Over 233 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 234.5.

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This total is all about the number itself. Toronto and Philadelphia met less than two weeks ago and combined for 250 points, blowing past the closing total. Nothing about the makeup of either team has changed in a way that warrants a significantly lower number here. When the market posts a total almost 15–20 points below what the previous matchup produced, the academic move is to go right back to the well and take a dip on the Over.

Toronto continues to push pace, continues to score north of 120 in most of its competitive games, and continues to depend heavily on transition and early offense.  If Toronto gets to its usual scoring threshold and this game plays to the competitive spread projected, both sides should be trading blows deep into the fourth quarter. At 234, the number is simply too low compared to both recent history, as well. The Over remains the clear play.

Raptors vs 76ers prediction: Over 234 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to the number.

Miami’s narrow win over New York on Monday has shifted the market in a predictable — and exploitable — direction. The Heat have become a force at home, and the betting public is now treating them as if they’re indestructible in South Beach. That reaction alone is enough to inflate this number. If Miami hadn’t edged out the Knicks, the line here would be far more modest — the Heat likely a small favorite or even a coin-flip proposition. Instead, they’re being priced as if they can’t miss.

The Warriors still possess the offensive firepower and spacing to keep virtually any game competitive. Their shooting profile, led by Curry and supported by multiple deep threats, travels well against anyone. Golden State’s dynamic perimeter attack prevents opponents from controlling rhythm for all 48 minutes. Anytime Miami builds a run, the Warriors can erase it. The market is overreacting to Miami’s recent home dominance, and that gives value to the underdog. Golden State is not only capable of staying inside this number — they’re capable of winning outright.

Warriors vs Heat prediction: Warriors +6.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to +6.

The ship continues to sink in Sacramento, as the Kings are desperate to get a result which would end a 6-game losing streak. They face a tough challenge on Wednesday night against the defending champs, some oddsmakers have Sacramento as a 20 point underdog going into this game. It’s hard to find any positives if you’re a Kings fan right now, head coach Doug Christie might not last until Christmas and there’s a chance the team goes into a full blown rebuild by then as well.

OKC won 132-101 the last time these two teams met, just 10 days go. Since then they’ve beaten the Grizzlies, Warriors, Lakers, Hornets and Pelicans all by double-digits and they’re showing no signs of slowing down. They have the NBA’s 4th best offense which is impressive considering they shoot only the 20th highest percentage from three-point land. Their lockdown defense has seen them allow just 101.3 points per 100 possessions, that’s 6.1 points less than the 2nd best Detroit Pistons.

All the numbers are pointing to an OKC win and cover here, but I feel like the under is the way to go. It’s hard to overlook this Thunder defense, the gap in efficiency between them and the 2nd placed Pistons is almost as big as the gap between the Pistons and the 19th placed Minnesota Timberwolves. In 2 meetings they’ve held the Kings to 101 points both times. I’ll grab the under here.

Thunder vs Kings prediction: Under 232.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The New York Knicks head to the Metroplex to battle the Dallas Mavericks for the second stop on a five-game road trip. New York stumbled out of the blocks with a 115-113 loss in Miami on Monday, failing as a 1-point underdog as the Under (244.5) cashed. The Knicks have lost two of the past three games after a five-game win streak, and they’re 1-2 against the spread (ATS) in the past three after a 5-0 ATS in a five-game span from Nov. 2-11. The Over has cashed in five of the past six games, too, while going 8-2 in the past 10 games. Playing the Knicks and the Over is a good move for those interested in same-game parlays (SGP).

The Mavericks were hammered 120-96 last time out at Minnesota on Monday, not even coming close as a 14-point underdog as the Under (232) cashed, halting a four-game Over run. The Mavs are just 1-3 ATS in the past four games, while going 2-4 ATS in the past six games at home. The Over has hit in four in a row at home, too, while the total has gone high in five in a row in this series dating back to Dec. 27, 2022. Let’s go with the Over in this battle, as the winner in the past six meetings has scored at least 121 points.

Knicks vs Mavericks prediction: Over 228.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to Over 229.5.

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The Chicago Bulls wrap up a four-game road trip in the Pacific Northwest against the Portland Trail Blazers. The Bulls picked up a stunning 130-127 victory in Denver as a 12.5-point underdog as the Over (241) cashed, snapping a five-game losing streak. The Bulls are still 3-2 against the spread (ATS) in the past five games, and the Over has cashed in five in a row, including four straight Over results on the road. Be careful if you’re looking for a same-game parlay (SGP), though, as the general public loves the Bulls, and Chicago is just 2-4 ATS in the past six road contests.

For the Blazers, they suffered a 127-110 loss at home against the Phoenix Suns on Tuesday night, and now they face the quick turnaround. At least the Blazers are back home, so playing back-to-back situations is better when you do not have to travel. Playing on no rest this season, Portland won and covered its only previous game on no rest, topping the Lakers 122-108 in Los Angeles on Oct. 27, and it cashed the Over in that game on no rest. Rather than bothering with the side, which a majority of the money is on Chicago, let’s take the Over here, even though it’s a big number. That’s the safer play, cashing in seven of the past eight games for Portland.

Bulls vs Trail Blazers prediction: Over 243.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 244.5.

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