NBA Picks

Tonight, we will see a couple of teams that have had issues scoring. Over the last 10 games tonight’s hosts the Cleveland Cavaliers have ranked just 23rd in offensive rating. The visiting Portland Trail Blazers have been 29th in that category. Both teams have fared much better defensively, ranking 9th and 16th in defensive rating. During that same stretch of games, they have been 18th and 20th in pace. Therefore, do not expect this one to break out into a fast back-and-forth game. With this likely being a half-court battle, and both defenses being more than competent, it is hard to see either team running away with it.

The Trail Blazers have a couple of perimeter defenders who should match up very well with the Cavaliers’ scorers. Malcolm Brogdon and Jerami Grant should be able to impact the effectiveness of Darius Garland and Donovan Mitchell. It helps the visitors that the Cavaliers are not a high-volume 3-point shooting team. The hosts have ranked 28th in 3-point attempts and 25th in 3-point makes over the last 10 games. The Cavaliers have been average at home this season, with a 5-5 record. It is hard to see them generating the type of performance that would lead to a double-digit win. I’ll take the points with the Trail Blazers.

Trail Blazers +11.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to Trail Blazers +9.5.

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The Charlotte Hornets will be without LaMelo Ball tonight having lost 6 of their last 8 games. Ball isn’t the only key injury for Charlotte as Brandon Miller is listed as a game-time decision. Because the Hornets will be without two of their primary scoring options, I expect Brooklyn to control the tempo of this game. The Nets rank 22nd in PACE this season and have held opponents to 109 or fewer points in 8 straight wins and are rather heavy favorites to get the win.

I’m not as worried about the Nets putting the ball in the hoop as they rank 2nd in 3-point shooting percentage and 7th in effective FG%. The Hornets, however, are in the bottom 10 in the league in terms of effective FG%, 3-point shooting, AST/TO ratio and several other offensive stat categories. Without the Hornets’ top scoring option, I expect the Nets to control the pace and limit the Hornets’ offensive production. I’m taking the under.

Under 224.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The Detroit Pistons could be in for a very difficult night as they take on the New York Knicks at Madison Square Garden. They will be on a second night of a back-to-back having suffered a 133-107 loss to the Los Angeles Lakers last night. It was their 3rd straight loss by a margin of at least 19 points. It was also their 15th straight loss overall. The Knicks, on the other hand, are surging, having won 7 of their last 10 games. Of their last 6 games against teams who are currently under .500, the Knicks have won 5 by at least a 14-point margin. Look for them to keep that run going tonight.

The Knicks have been a defensive force this season, ranking 4th in defensive rating. It has helped them to hold 3 of their last 6 opponents under 100 points. Taking on a Pistons team that is 27th in offensive rating should allow them to shut down their opponents once more. The visitors have had issues defending in transition too, ranking 20th in opponent second-chance points per game. The Knicks are 12th in scoring in that category but could improve on that against a fatigued opponent. With that in mind and the poor run the Pistons are on, it is hard to see anything less than a blowout.

Knicks -13.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to Knicks -14.5.

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The last 3 weeks of Indiana Pacers basketball has been a rollercoaster ride as they’ve exchanged wins and losses since they beat the Bucks on November 10. Following their home loss to Portland on Tuesday they’re 9-7 SU, as they head into back-to-back meetings with Miami. With 6 of their next 8 games being on the road, it would be a big morale boost to bounce back with a victory after a disappointing performance against Portland. They’ll need to limit their turnovers if they want to achieve that, as committing 20 of them like they did against the Blazers is not an option. Against the Heat they’ve been rather successful in covering the spread, doing so in 4 of their last 5 visits to South Beach. However, Miami has had the edge in wins, collecting 12 in the last 18 head-to-head games.

Miami has hit a bit of a slump with 3 consecutive losses against the Knicks, Nets and Bucks, but the Heat are still a respectable 9-4 SU in their last 13 overall. Injuries are the main reason for their struggles, and for tonight’s game Duncan Robinson, Bam Adebayo, Jimmy Butler and Haywood Highsmith are all question marks, while Tyler Herro is still recovering from his injury. They actually put up solid resistance against the Bucks despite being without Butler in that game, and his ankle is recovering so they might get him back for this one. In order to beat the Pacers, the Heat will have to put in extra work on offense as Indiana has the best offensive rating in the NBA. Despite the injuries, I still like Miami. Their 10-8 SU record would have been a lot better if they had played more than just 6 home games. Indiana has been very inconsistent, so you can’t be sure which team you’ll see tonight. I’ll go with the Heat as slight favorites.

Heat -1.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.   

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The Hawks are hoping a trip to San Antonio can help them bust up a losing streak. Top scorer Trae Young is having a down season and the rest of the team has failed to pick up the slack. If it were me, I would deal him but I don’t think they will. With their current group this is not more than a .500 team. They should win in San Antonio though.  Atlanta wants a win but San Antonio is more desperate, hoping to hoping to get a win for the first time since November 2. That is 12 straight losses with just a few covers mixed in. Victor Wembanyama is having a productive rookie season, but I am still not sure how you really play though him to maximize his talents because he does not have the best court vision, even though he is the tallest player out there. He wants to be a shooter more than find shooters. 

Atlanta has been even on the road this season, 4-4 SUATS. That includes 2-2 SUATS as a road favorite. When they have lost as a road favorite against the number on the road this season, they have also lost outright but I do not see them falling to this struggling Spurs team this evening. Their guard play should carry them and Dejounte Murray might be motivated by facing his former team. The number is a little steep but Atlanta is the play. 

Atlanta -7.5 available at publishing. 

The Los Angeles Lakers’ last 3 games have surpassed the 231-point mark. With the team on the second night of a back-to-back and playing on the road against a fast Oklahoma City Thunder squad, look for that streak to continue. On the season the hosts are 8th in pace and should look to push the tempo against a fatigued opponent. Their offense has been incredibly efficient too. They are 8th in offensive rating this season and have scored at least 120 points in 5 of their last 7 games. They are also 2nd in the league in true shooting percentage. It is hard to see the Lakers being able to contain them.

The over should be helped by the Thunder’s ability to knock down shots from deep. They lead the NBA in 3-point percentage and have shooters all over the floor. With Chet Holmgren making 43.1% of his 3-point attempts, he should be able to pull Anthony Davis away from the rim. That should open driving lanes for his teammates. The Lakers should be well positioned to take advantage of the higher pace too. Anthony Davis and LeBron James should be able to overpower an undersized team. The Thunder give up the most second-chance points per game in the NBA, allowing the Lakers to pad their scoring numbers. I’m backing the over.

Over 231.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to over 233.

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Right now, we are in midst of the best basketball the Milwaukee Bucks have played since acquiring Damian Lillard in the offseason. Although their wins against sub-par teams such as Washington and Portland were by just 6 and 3 points, the Bucks have now won 8 of 9 games while covering the spread in 6 of their last 8 overall. Their offense has really picked it up during this stretch with them shooting better than 50% from the field in 6 of 8 games. Both Giannis and Dame are healthy and playing at a high level, but their only injury worries are Jae Crowder and Pat Connaughton. They’ve enjoyed a ton of success in games against the Bulls lately, covering the spread in 14 of the last 16 visits to the United Center.

Not only are the Bulls on a 5-game losing streak, but their best players DeMar DeRozan and Zach LaVine are both questionable with ankle and foot injuries sustained in the 27-point loss at Boston. As we get closer to the trade deadline, the chances of a big trade happening are increasing, Chicago is likely to blow it up and go into a full rebuild mode. With just 1 victory in 8 games against Eastern Conference opponents and a run of 5 straight defeats without covering the spread, the Bulls are also getting outscored by almost 10 points in the last 10 head-to-head meetings with Milwaukee. A major collapse would have to happen on the Bucks side for Chicago to stand a chance. The Bucks are on a 3-game win streak in head-to-head meetings, winning by 9, 13 and 12 points in those games. I quite like their chance to win this one by double digits.

Bucks -8 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The Los Angeles Clippers and the Golden State Warriors are set to square off twice over the next 3 days, with tonight’s contest taking place at the Chase Center on the east side of San Francisco. Each of these teams will admit that they’ve underperformed to begin the season – both sitting under .500 while occupying the #10 and #11 seed in the Western Conference. Since James Harden’s arrival, the Clippers have gone just 5-7 but they have shown signs of life over the past 2 weeks, compiling a 5-2 record as head coach Tyronn Lue continues to tinker with his rotation. Everything seemed to come together last night after a 131-117 win over the Sacramento Kings, with Kawhi Leonard leading the Clippers with 34 points. Can Los Angeles carry that momentum into tonight’s game, or will they take a step back? The Golden State Warriors are having a rollercoaster of a season through 18 games to put it lightly. After a 5-1 start, they have dropped 9 of their last 12 games, with perhaps their worst loss taking place 2 nights ago against the Kings. With a little over a minute to go in the second quarter the Warriors had a 24-point lead, but the Kings erased the deficit in the second half to win by 1. Some of the Warriors’ struggles are a result of a 5-game suspension handed down on Draymond Green and the lack of a second scoring option. Klay Thompson and Andrew Wiggins are posting career-low marks in scoring and the Warriors just lost Chris Paul and Gary Payton II to injuries sustained in their loss to the Kings. Despite the recent losing skid and injury news, the Warriors are 5.5-point favorites at home, where they’ve gone 0-8-1 ATS.

Although the trend suggests backing the Clippers, I’m going to lay the points with the Warriors. Golden State’s bench has been a bright spot this season, ranking 5th with 41.9 bench points per game. Moses Moody and Jonathan Kuminga have shown flashes in their limited playing time and could be a major factor in this game. Possibly the most important note I wanted to touch upon is the availability of Paul George, Kawhi Leonard and Russell Westbrook. Although the Clippers have yet to release their injury report, this seems like an opportune time to rest some of their veteran players. George, Leonardand Westbrook have appeared in all 17 games this season but tonight is their 5th game in 7 days. Don’t be surprised to see some late scratches ahead of this one. With that, I’ll take the Warriors as they look to rebound from a demoralizing loss.

Warriors -5.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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