Week 16 Thursday Night Football between the Los Angeles Rams (+1.5) and the Seattle Seahawks has ramifications for the NFC West title as well as the #1 seed in the NFC. The Rams won the first matchup in Sofi Stadium, but they are heading into Seattle likely without red-zone touchdown machine WR Davante Adams due to a hamstring injury. Seattle will likely be without LT Charles Cross, meaning both teams are missing key members on the offensive side of the ball. It will be interesting to see if Sam Darnold can clean up the turnovers and finally get a win over Los Angeles after being 0-3 dating back to last season as a member of the Minnesota Vikings.
Here is my favorite prop bet for TNF.
Terrance Ferguson (LAR) Over 16.5 receiving yards (-110)
Odds available at Bet365 Sportsbook at time of publishing. 1 unit play.
Davante Adams is listed questionable as of Wednesday, but there is little doubt he is expected to play in this game. Adam Schefter this week on the Pat McAfee Show shared his surprise at the thought of playing Adams on a short week with this hamstring injury despite the importance of the game. My expectation is that the Rams continue to lean on that 13 personnel ( 3 tight ends, 1 running back) that they have had so much success with since Week 7. Over the last 2 weeks, all 3 Rams tight ends have played more than 60% of the snaps — and last week that number jumped to 75%. It was their base package before the Adams injury, and I can’t see any reason why they wouldn’t double down on it Thursday night.
Ferguson is easily the most athletic of the bunch and viewed as more of an oversized receiver than tight end in the traditional sense. This season he has had 17 targets, 6 receptions and 144 yards — good for 24 yards per catch. The fascinating part is that his average depth of target is 19.6 with 5.5 YAC — and yet we get this line at 16.5. Observationally, Matthew Stafford missed Ferguson last week on what would have been a walk-in 30+ yard touchdown, and Ferguson couldn’t complete a TD catch in the back of the endzone later that game. My point is that it has been a point of emphasis to get the ball into Ferguson’s the hands. A lot will be made about Colby Parkinson’s returning to Seattle, especially with the recent string of games he has put together — but I view Ferguson as the “splash play” tight end of the group.
Click here to add us to your Google preferred sources and never miss a story
