UCF Knights vs Kansas State Wildcats Prediction, Odds and Picks for Saturday, 09/27/25

The Kansas State Wildcats are one late game-winning drive against North Dakota away from having an 0-4 record. After a close matchup with Iowa State in Dublin, there was no need to panic on the Wildcats, but now the question turns to whether or not they are quality enough to reach a bowl game. The offense has been inconsistent, the defense has been run all over and the team as a whole hasn’t shown much fight a third of the way through the regular season. The Wildcats rank 108th in rushing defense and 135th in EPA/rush. The Knights possess a top-40 rush attack by yards per game that also averages 5.9 yards per carry. I expect UCF to have success in the run game, and on the other side of the ball the Knights match up well.

Simply put, Kansas State has struggled to get the passing game going. Whether it be a mismanagement of Avery Johnson’s talent under center or just early-season mistakes, it has been quite unreliable. The Wildcats rank outside of the top-80 nationally in passing yards per game and passing efficiency. UCF has a formidable secondary unit that ranks 14 in defensive success rate against the dropback and is fresh off holding UNC to just 154 yards and 2 INTs through the air, another team that has similar offensive struggles as the Wildcats. On paper, Kansas State has the talent to be a solid team competing for a Big 12 title, but it hasn’t shown on the field. I’ll take UCF to keep this one close and cover on the road.

UCF vs Kansas State prediction: UCF +6.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable down to +5.5 (-110).