Chad Hartsock
ConsultantChad's Picks
We’ve come to the end, and it is championship Monday. We have the Michigan Wolverines vs the Connecticut Huskies. UConn is in their third title game in four years, and Dan Hurley has built the closest thing to a dynasty we are likely to see anymore in college basketball. His squad has proven impossible to eliminate, and they have been a covering machine too. As for Michigan, the Wolverines will be seeking only their second title ever. Dusty May is making his second career appearance in the title game (he took Florida Atlantic there in 2023). The Wolverines have been a force all season, and they are heavily favored on Monday. So before Luther Vandrose queues up One Shining Moment, how do we bet this title game?
This is one of the harder championship games to bet, because either outcome has a really obvious path to hit, and it has the potential to miss so badly that we are left feeling like idiots. The “I should have seen that coming” and the “that was so obvious, easy money” crowds are both going to be out in force. For Michigan, they have obliterated everyone in this tournament, scoring 90+ in each game and winning by an average of more than 20 points per game. That includes dismantling two really good teams in Tennessee and Arizona to get here. This is also a team that announced themselves by winning 10 straight in Nov/Dec by 20+. If they dismantle UConn, we shouldn’t be surprised. On the other hand, UConn always covers, and if they cover again, who would be surprised?
I am siding with Michigan to cover, but I am not pushing this number much further. It opened at -5.5 and pushed quickly out to -7.5 before moving back to -7. Yaxel Lendeborg appears to have avoided a major injury and should play. Michigan is the #2 team in the country at protecting the rim, and I don’t see how they would allow UConn to just keep shooting open 3s instead, at least not the way that Illinois just did. The Huskies are not good at drawing fouls, and they put their opponent on the line a lot. UConn is a great transition defense that will be a fun match for a Michigan team that rarely runs offense in the halfcourt set, but I think Michigan is too much here. Give me Michigan to pull away and cap a tremendous, historic season. But do be warned: as is often the case in big games, Vegas wins the most with the dreaded win-no-cover, and that seems to be where we are headed here too.
UConn vs Michigan Prediction: Michigan -7 (-110) available at the time of publishing. Playable to -7.5.
Sunday Night Baseball this week features the St. Louis Cardinals vs the Detroit Tigers. The Tigers have won the first 2 games in the series comfortably, by 4 and 5 runs each. Sunday is set to be an unpleasant night for baseball, as temperatures will hover around 40 degrees with a strong wind, and both teams are starting pitchers that are below league average. This one could get wild, or it could just be a “get through it” game. Either way, I think the best play is to back the Tigers to win and sweep the series.
The pitching matchup is Kyle Leahy vs Keider Montero. Montero was recalled to take the place of the newly-injured Justin Verlander. Leahy will be making just his third career start after sliding into the rotation following a few years in the bullpen. His first turn in the rotation did not go well, giving up 4 runs on 8 hits with 1 K through 5 innings of work. He does keep the ball on the ground, which will help on a windy day like this, but he is probably in for another difficult start with all the lefties Detroit has in their lineup. I think the right play here is the Tigers to win.
Cardinals vs Tigers Prediction: Detroit Tigers ML (-140) available at the time of publishing. Playable at that number or better.
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The Pittsburgh Pirates and Baltimore Orioles finish a series on Sunday afternoon. The Pirates are looking for the sweep after mounting a late-inning comeback on Saturday, pushing their winning streak to 4 games in a row. The Orioles, on the other hand, seem to have some significant issues in the early stages of the season. I am looking for the Pirates to close out the series with a win, and I am taking the Pirates on the Money Line.
Chris Bassitt takes the ball for the Birds. I have concerns about Bassitt at this stage of his career, but the Orioles are hoping to milk one more season out of the 37-year old. His first start was a rough one, but more concerning to me is that the heart of the Pittsburgh batting order have all logged 15+ at-bats against Bassitt, and found a lot of success. Lowe, Reynolds, and O’Hearn are collectively just under .500 against Bassitt. That could be trouble. For the Buccos, it will be Braxton Ashcraft taking the ball. This is a young and promising arm who is still learning on the job. He is far from a finished product, but the Oriole offense is a mess through the first two weeks. On top of that, the bullpen just blew a save, so the Pirates likely have a late-inning bullpen advantage on Sunday. This one should break the direction of the home team as they raise the Jolly Roger.
Orioles vs Pirates Prediction: Pittsburgh Pirates ML (-130) available at the time of publishing. Playable at that number.
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