Chad Hartsock
ConsultantChad's Picks
Saturday’s affair between Detroit and Baltimore was postponed, which presented us with a doubleheader on Sunday. The first game of the pair pits the pitching matchup we expected to see yesterday: Framber Valdez vs. Brandon Young. The Orioles have been very good in Young’s starts, winning 5 of his 6, but Young’s strikeout upside and command are about average. The situation couldn’t be more different lately for Valdez and the Tigers, as Detroit is 0-3 in Valdez’s May starts after a 5-2 start to the year.
Valdez has been shaky of late, which is just a microcosm of the Tigers’ year thus far. Having lost 7 in a row, maybe the unexpected day off allows the Tigers to recalibrate and get back into the win column. After all, the Orioles aren’t particularly good against left-handed pitching this year, sitting 20th in on-base percentage and 21st in batting average.
Tigers vs Orioles Game 1 prediction: Detroit Tigers ML (+105) at the time of publishing. Playable to +100.
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The Minnesota Twins and Boston Red Sox finish a series on Sunday afternoon, weather permitting. There is rain everywhere in the northeast again on Sunday, and if this game plays, it will be wet, cold and probably windy. They got yesterday’s game in, and the Twins took it 4-2. The Twins will aim for the series sweep on Sunday, and this continues to be one of those “better than you think they are” type of teams. While I like the Red Sox to win this game, I think the best play is the game total under 7.5.
The starting pitching matchup is Bailey Ober vs. Sonny Gray. Both guys are throwing well, which sets us up well for a low-scoring game. Gray has turned in 4 straight starts allowing 1 run or less, while Ober has given the Twins a quality start in 4 of his last 6. Afternoon games in general tend to stay under, especially with these kinds of weather conditions. Consider this a bet on tough conditions for the offenses, sprinkled with favorable starting pitchers.
Twins vs Red Sox Prediction: Under 7.5 (-115) available at the time of publishing. Playable at that number.
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The Toronto Blue Jays will play for the sweep on Sunday afternoon against the Pittsburgh Pirates what will be the early-start game on Peacock. On Saturday, the Pirates gave Paul Skenes the usual treatment, refusing to give him any run support, and eventually, Toronto scored on him. In general, the Pirates are just not producing much offense in this series, and that is a problem when the Blue Jays are starting to get things together at the plate. I like the Blue Jays to cap off the series with a win and a sweep.
On the mound is Dylan Cease and Mitch Keller. Cease has not been perfect for the Jays, as he has scattered a bad outing here or there like he did in his last start. However, facing the Pirates should cure what ails him. Mitch Keller has been his usual steady, veteran self for the Pirates. My concern is that Keller doesn’t pile up many Ks, which is even more concerning against a Toronto team that persistently puts the ball in play. It seems like they will get to Keller and score, and as long as Cease isn’t handing out tons of free passes, that should put the Blue Jays in great shape as they head into the late innings. I’ll take the Jays to win this one.
Pirates vs Blue Jays Prediction: Toronto Blue Jays ML (-160) available at the time of publishing. Playable to that number.
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