Chad Hartsock

The Illinois Fighting Illini and the Tennessee Volunteers face off on Saturday in Nashville as part of the Music City Madness event. Although not technically a home game, you can imagine the crowd will be more heavily tilted toward the Vols. Tennessee needs to get this win, as it has dropped 2 in a row. The Volunteers lost a game to Kansas in Vegas by 5 points and then surprisingly fell to an upstart Syracuse team on the road earlier this week. The Illini just lost by 13 to UConn and they lost to Alabama earlier in the year — thus they, too, could use a quality win. These teams should be evenly matched, even if they are completely different styles. I think the best play in this game is to take the under at 150.5.

Illinois is an old, veteran team that likes to play fast on offense. Tennessee is a slow, grinding team that is stifling on defense. This kind of conflict in styles usually goes the way of the slow defensive team, and that is what I expect on Saturday. When you play Tennessee, it takes most of the shot clock to find a shot and you rarely get a second one. That is the main reason most Vols games stay under the point total. In fact, these 2 teams faced off in Champaign last year and the Volunteers won 66-64 on a last-second layup. This year’s version of these teams have different players, but a very similar style and DNA. I look for a similar result. Give me the under — especially in a strange gym that is home to neither team.

Illinois vs Tennessee prediction: Under 150.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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There is a danger in being misled if you are just a box score reader. One might look at the first matchup, see the 29-7 final, and wonder why in the world the total would jump so much higher in the rematch. But I do think it is likely that both teams score more than they did the first time around. Will they crack 50? That’s a tougher call, but I do like this game to stay just under. Mostly, I think that has to do with two factors: the elite Red Raider defense, and the odd failure of the Texas Tech offense in the red zone.

The Tech defense is elite and special. They are #1 in the country against the run, allowing just 68.9 yards per game. That is not a type-o. There are only 12 teams in the entire nation allowing less than 100 yards, and 10 of them are in the playoff conversation, and the Red Raiders allow even less than all of them. BYU’s offense? Definitely a ground attack. Sure, part of the stat has to do with everyone playing from way behind against Tech, but it is still telling here. BYU will have to come out of its preferred attack if it wants to sustain drives and score points.

The other factor is the anomalous struggles of the Red Raiders in the red zone. They convert touchdowns at one of the lowest rates in the country, which is a total mystery for an offense as talented as this one. But it keeps happening, and if it happens against a good BYU defense, then it will keep this scoring number low. (Also, at whatever point Tech gets bounced from the playoffs, the failures in the red zone are very likely to be the reason why.) We still have room for a 31-17 result here, and unless Tech starts converting a lot of TDs that they haven’t all season, that feels like about the top end of the scoring to me. I’ll take the under.

BYU vs Texas Tech prediction: Under 49.5 (-110) available at the time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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