Chad Hartsock
ConsultantChad's Picks
The Philadelphia Phillies and San Diego Padres play again on Tuesday following a 3-0 Phillies win on Memorial Day. The Phillies have now battled their way back to .500 after a terrible start to the season, and they are only a half game behind the Nationals for 2nd place in the NL East now. The Padres trail only the Dodgers out west, and we probably aren’t paying enough attention to their success. They have been winning almost entirely with pitching, as the offense has been bad. Both Manny Machado and Jackson Merrill are hitting well under .200, and Tatis has still yet to hit a homer this season. I am not super interested in trusting Aaron Nola tonight, but I do think the Phillies are the right play. I’ll take Philadelphia on the Money Line.
If you are going to beat the Padres, you better be ahead after 6 innings, because you do not want to deal with the high-leverage arms coming out of that bullpen. The starters have been good too though, chief among them is Randy Vazquez. Vazquez has an ERA under 3.00 and has been a gem for this Padres team. Still, I think he is outperforming his metrics by quite a margin, and it feels like regression is coming. On the other side is Aaron Nola. The 32-yr old will hand in the occasional strong start, but for the most part, he is scuffling, giving up damage, and not going deep into games. But if he is going to limit someone, this struggling Padre offense could be it. I am going to back the Phillies in this one, especially at plus money, and trust that they can keep winning.
Phillies vs Padres Prediction: Phillies ML (+105) available at the time of publishing. Playable to +100.
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The Tampa Bay Rays and Baltimore Orioles face off again on Tuesday after the Orioles slugged out a 9-7 victory on Monday. That game took 13 innings, and it was 2-2 at the end of 9. Both starters were nearly flawless, and it took ghost runners to finally kickstart these offenses. It is hard to say how that will carry forward into Tuesday, whether tired players, sluggish bats, or stressed bullpens, but both starters will likely be expected to go as deep as they can. These teams also played last week, a series that the Rays swept at home. In general, I would prefer not to bet against Tampa these days, so I am taking the Rays on the Money Line.
On the mound will be Griffin Jax for the Rays and Shane Baz for the Orioles. Baz is a former Ray who is making his way with the O’s now, and he has been good for them. Last week against his former team, Baz tossed 6 innings of 1-run baseball and allowed only 2 hits. As for Jax, he has worked out of the bullpen until 2 weeks ago, so his pitch count is still quite limited. But his 2 starts have been good, both going 5 innings and allowing only 1 run across those starts, including a start against Baltimore last week. There probably isn’t much advantage on the mound, but Tampa’s surprisingly strong offense and the way they constantly put pressure on the opponent is just fun to watch, and I think they win a lot of games they probably shouldn’t. There is a reason they have the best record in baseball, and I will keep backing them.
Rays vs Orioles Prediction: Rays ML (-115) available at the time of publishing. Playable to -130.
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