Chad Hartsock
ConsultantChad's Picks
The Penn State Nittany Lions host the Pitt Panthers on Sunday afternoon in a non-conference matchup. Penn State came into the season with low expectations, picked to finish at or near the bottom of the B1G, but they have more than held their own in the first third of the season. They are 8-3, and they gave Michigan State all they wanted earlier this week. Pitt is expected to be in the middle of the pack in the ACC, but at 6-6, they haven’t impressed much so far. Jeff Capel looks to have a tough season ahead of him. Pitt is slightly favored here, but I think Penn State should win this game, especially at home.
Pitt wants to run a three-heavy offense, but they just don’t seem to have the personnel for it. Instead, they are playing at nearly the slowest pace in the nation, and there just aren’t a lot of go-to options for this team. As for Penn State, they are an extremely young team, very freshmen-heavy. Their best player is 4-star freshman Kayden Mingo, and he should be the best player on the floor in this game. What I like most about Penn State is that they take care of the basketball, sporting one of the lowest turnover rates in the country. If they maintain that on Sunday, they should be able to beat Pitt. I’ll take Penn State to win outright.
Pitt vs Penn State Prediction: Penn ML (-105) available at the time of publishing. Playable at that number.
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Tuesday’s bowl slate takes us to Boca Raton, Florida for the Bush’s Boca Raton Bowl, featuring the Toledo Rockets and the Louisville Cardinals. Toledo finished 4th in the MAC, but the Rockets closed the regular season on a 4-game winning streak to get themselves to Florida for bowl season. Louisville briefly flirted with the top of the ACC standings before losing its final 3 conference games. They managed to blank in-state rival Kentucky, 41-0, to close on a strong note. Louisville is the more talented team here, so as long as this line stays under a touchdown, I think that is the right play. Give me Louisville -6.5.
In terms of opt-outs and roster changes to be aware of, Louisville is likely to be missing a couple of defenders, and we aren’t sure who will dress for them at running back because of injuries. Quarterback Miller Moss flirted with opting out, but he appears ready to go after all. Louisville is decently stable as far as bowl rosters go. Toledo lost their coach, who took the job at UConn. That hasn’t brought as many transfers and opt-outs as you would expect, but the coaching change alone is significant. The bottom line here is that whenever Toledo has stepped outside the MAC this season (Wash St, Kentucky), they have struggled, and they have especially been unable to run the ball against bigger defenders. Louisville is better (and stronger) than both those opponents. I think the Rockets will struggle to generate offense here. I’ll take the Cardinals, as long as it is under a touchdown.
Toledo vs Louisville prediction: Louisville Cardinals -6.5 (-110) available at the time of publishing. Playable at that number or better.
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