Chad Hartsock
ConsultantChad's Picks
The Philadelphia Phillies face the Miami Marlins again on Monday night, capping off a 4-game series. These teams have traded wins so far, with the Phillies taking 2 of the 3. On Monday, we get Aaron Nola vs Janson Junk on the mound — a matchup that probably won’t draw a lot of attention. While the Phillies are favored, as they are most nights, I see several reasons to look in the Marlins’ direction here. I’m taking the Marlins on the money line.
Let’s start with the pitching. Junk has turned in two consecutive scoreless outings, the most recent against the Dodgers. While we shouldn’t expect him to sustain that level of performance, he is running hot right now — which is more than we can say for Nola. Nola has given up 11 runs in his last 2 starts, failing to complete 5.0 innings in either one. When it comes to the bullpens, Miami has a surprisingly good one so far this season. And then there are the offensive woes of Philly, who are scoring fewer than 4 runs per game and are in the bottom 5 in the league in scoring. It seems like a good night to take the Fish to win.
Phillies vs Marlins prediction: Miami ML (-105) available at time of publishing. Playable to -115.
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The Boston Red Sox face the Detroit Tigers on Monday. The Red Sox dropped 2 of 3 over the weekend to the Astros, and they are now just 3-4 since firing manager Alex Cora. Their offense continued to struggle, even against an Astros team that has been atrocious on the mound. As for the Tigers, they won the final 2 games of their series with the Rangers, and tonight is a Tarik Skubal night. Not surprisingly, they are heavy favorites, and it would be tough to swallow playing the money line in either direction. I’ll look to the game total, which checks in at a low 7 runs — so I will take the under.
Skubal needs no explanation. Sure, he hasn’t been untouchable this season — but Boston is also near the bottom of the league in nearly every offensive category. On the other side, Boston will look to lefty Payton Tolle. Tolle, a rookie, will make his third start — and he is a pure fireballer. He blew away 11 Yankees in his debut and then dropped off a bit against the Blue Jays, who are notorious for just putting the ball in play. Tonight, Tolle should neutralize the most dangerous bats in the Detroit lineup — guys who are also lefties. I think we are likely to cruise into the late innings with very little offense on the board from either team. I’ll take the under.
Red Sox vs Tigers prediction: Under 7 (-120) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.
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