Andrew Wilsher
Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to the 2025 NBA Finals! It’s been one heck of a postseason filled with hugely competitive series, momentous comebacks and even a few Game 7s, but now we’re down to the final 2 teams as the Eastern Conference’s Indiana Pacers look to pull the upset against the Western Conference powerhouse Oklahoma City Thunder. You could’ve bet the Pacers to win it all at as big as +15000 just 3 months ago with BetMGM, but now Indiana is 4 wins from immortality after cruising past the Bucks, Cavaliers and Knicks. Do they have 1 more upset in them, or will the dominant Thunder complete their rise to the top of the mountain? We’ve asked 5 of our NBA experts here at Pickswise to give their NBA Finals series predictions. Make sure you also get our NBA picks on the side and total for EVERY NBA Finals matchup.
Germantas Kneita: Thunder in 4 over Pacers (+300)
Odds available at bet365 at time of publishing.
The Pacers have done incredibly well to make it here, but they are about to face a real jump in competition. The Thunder have the tools to really limit some of their key weapons. I expect Alex Caruso to be a menace against Tyrese Halliburton. He should be able to force errors from the usually turnover-averse guard, which could throw the Pacers’ offense off. Chet Holmgren is also an incredibly tough matchup for Pascal Siakam, having the length and quickness to slow him down off the dribble.
If these Pacers stars struggle to get going, I expect the supporting cast to struggle to make up for it. They had real issues slowing down Jalen Brunson, so it’s hard to see them slowing down reigning MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. He averaged 39 per game against them in the regular season. I think we will see the first NBA finals sweep since 2018. This Thunder team has no obvious flaws.
Find out Germantas’ Pacers vs Thunder Game 1 best bet — he’s up +45.4 units with his predictions this season!
ThatGuyBets: Thunder in 5 over Pacers (+250)
Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing.
Admittedly, I really like this Indiana squad. What they lack in skill, they make up for with incredible chemistry and teamwork. Both Haliburton and Siakam, among others, have shown that you don’t need a top-5 league talent to make it to the Big Stage.
With that being said, Oklahoma City should be too tough to handle. SGA is the undisputed MVP while Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren behind him aren’t too far off as perennial all-stars. Oklahoma City feels superior to Indiana in nearly every way and should win this series with relative ease. I think Caruso, Isaiah Hartenstein and Lu Dort are perfect complementary pieces and this is a team designed to win for a long time with their cabinet of future picks and assets. I believe Indiana is good enough to not get swept, but I like OKC in 5 games this series.
Check out NBA expert Pips’ best Pacers vs Thunder player prop bets for Game 1, inc. a pick at +140 odds!
JutPicks: Thunder in 5 over Pacers (+250)
Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing.
The Thunder made quick work out of the Timberwolves in 5 games, with 3 of the 4 wins coming by 15+ points. On the other side, the Pacers were extremely impressive against a Knicks team that had zero answers for the pace Indiana played at. However, OKC should have plenty of answers for that. They have arguably one of the best defenses of all time, headlined by multiple All-NBA defenders who can guard positions 1-5. That doesn’t include one of the best perimeter defenders we’ve seen this era in Alex Caruso.
The Thunder’s talent discrepancy over the Pacers should be too much for Indiana to handle. They have limited options for Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Jalen Williams on the defensive end, as Aaron Nesmith struggled late with an ankle injury to contain Jalen Brunson in the ECF. I align with the sportsbooks pricing the Thunder to win the 2025 NBA Finals in 5 games at +250 odds.
Get our Pacers vs Thunder Same Game Parlay picks for Game 1 of the NBA Finals at +310 odds
Filip Tomic: Thunder in 5 over Pacers (+250)
Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing.
This year’s NBA Finals will see a battle between 2 teams with contrasting styles as the elite offense of the Pacers takes on the record-setting defense of the Thunder. These 2 squads were separated by 18 wins during the regular season, so it’s no wonder OKC enters the finals as such a massive favorite.
On their way to the 2025 NBA Finals, the Thunder took care of business against far more challenging opponents than the Pacers did, so I feel like OKC is the more battle-tested team here. Everyone praised the Pacers for their depth in the Knicks series, but Oklahoma City takes it to a whole new level in terms of getting production from their reserves.
This should be a fast series as both teams thrive in that scenario, but it’s just hard to ignore the record-breaking point differential set by the Thunder, along with the fact that they have the regular-season MVP in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and home-court advantage in this series. They dominated both meetings during the regular season, winning them by 6 and 21 points. I’m giving the Pacers 1 game in this series, but if they get extra hot from three-point land maybe they can get two. However, I can’t see them getting 4 wins against this OKC team, and the value looks to be with the Thunder winning it all in 5 games.
Read Filip’s full 2025 NBA Finals predictions and best bet for Pacers vs Thunder
Justin Ziolkowski: Thunder in 5 over Pacers (+250)
Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing.
The Thunder, led by Western Conference Finals MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, have stormed through the postseason, flexing both elite offense and defense. They had the best net rating in the playoffs and have overwhelmed opponents with a relentless, switch-heavy scheme and a deep, young core. Meanwhile, the Pacers have shocked the league with their selfless, high-paced approach. Despite lacking a clear-cut superstar, Eastern Conference Finals MVP Pascal Siakam and floor general Tyrese Haliburton have galvanized a balanced attack. But Haliburton, recently voted the league’s most overrated player in a players’ poll, has put that narrative to rest, but will have to face his toughest test yet against OKC’s perimeter pressure.
Siakam is averaging 21.1 ppg on 54% shooting this postseason, while SGA leads all remaining players at 29.8 PPG and is adding 6.9 assists per game. Indiana enters the series scorching hot from deep, but they’ve yet to face a defense as disciplined and athletic as the Thunder’s. The Thunder enter the Finals as the 7th-largest favorites in NBA history. Of the previous 8 teams with similar or larger odds, 7 captured the title — the exception being the ’04 Lakers against the Pistons — most of those series ended in 5 games. That’s the expectation here as well. The Pacers seem a little too likable betting-wise due to recency bias and might have a lot of public packing given the odds. But I’m taking the Thunder to win in 5 games and claim the title on home court in Game 5.
