Sam Avellone
Leading off the action in Week 5 of the college football season is a conference matchup between the Army Black Knights and the East Carolina Pirates. On a mutually short week, Army comes into this contest on the heels of a 45-38 overtime loss at home against North Texas, while East Carolina lost at home to BYU 34-13. Both of these teams hope to bounce back from their respective Week 4 losses with a crucial conference win, while Army hopes to avoid dropping to 0-2 in the AAC.
With a total currently set north of 52, this AAC matchup offers a nice same-game parlay opportunity. Here are my favorite parlay picks for Army vs East Carolina, and don’t forget to check out all of our NCAA predictions for the loaded Week 5 slate.
East Carolina ML (-218)
Anthony Smith (ECU) anytime touchdown (+190)
Dewayne Coleman (Army) anytime touchdown (-125)
Army vs East Carolina same game parlay odds: +625
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook at the time of publishing
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East Carolina Pirates ML over Army Black Knights (-218)
A matchup between two teams on short rest typically favors the home team. In fact, since the start of the 2021 season, home favorites of at least 3 points in a conference game with a total of at least 50 points are 48-8 SU. It makes sense, as college kids aren’t necessarily used to travelling on short weeks during the season.
With a total sitting in the low 50s, I’m expecting points in this matchup, but I expect East Carolina to make more stops than Army and ultimately pull out this win. The Pirates sit in the top 45 in points per scoring opportunity allowed against a much better schedule than Army, who is 108th in the aforementioned metric. Going one step further, ECU is much better defensively in the red zone than Army, surrendering just 4 red-zone touchdowns in 4 games. Meanwhile, the Black Knights have surrendered 8 red-zone touchdowns in 3 games. Give me the Pirates outright at home.
See our Army vs East Carolina prediction
Anthony Smith (ECU) anytime touchdown (+190)
Senior wide receiver Anthony Smith returned to Greenville after leading the Pirates in targets last season and catching the second-most touchdowns on the team. Moreover, he was ECU’s favorite receiving option in traffic, leading the team with 18 contested targets.
Fast forward to this season, and Smith currently leads the team in targets and receptions – but has yet to catch a touchdown. Expect that to change this week against an Army defense he scored on last year. The Black Knights are unlikely to apply much resistance to ECU’s passing game in this one. They are outside the top 90 in PPA per pass and passing success rate, in addition to being outside the top 110 in PFF’s pass rush and coverage grades.
Dewayne Coleman (Army) anytime touchdown (-125)
Army may not score as frequently as ECU in this one, but I still expect the Black Knights to find the end zone a few times. In a run-heavy, option-style offense, Army’s quarterback is going to get a lot of carries, leading to multiple scoring opportunities as a runner rather than a passer. Dewayne Coleman should be able to capitalize on one of those opportunities on Thursday night against an East Carolina defense that has surrendered 4 rushing touchdowns this season – 2 of which were by opposing quarterbacks.
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