Once again, we coin the phrase quality over quantity. Such is the case here once more on this Monday’s NBA slate. Tonight’s ensemble features a 4-game course headlined by a collision of Eastern Conference foes when the Detroit Pistons travel to Beantown to square off with the Boston Celtics. Also featured in the West, the up-and-coming Houston Rockets venture to the Mile High City to battle one of the premier sides in all of the NBA — the Denver Nuggets.
You can find our NBA picks for all of tonight’s matchups along with EVERY GAME this season. But for now, here are our expert NBA best bets for Monday, December 15.
Pistons vs Celtics best bet: Celtics -2 (-110)
Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing.
This is about as a suspicious line as one can get. The Pistons have the best record in the Eastern Conference by far, they are the only team with 20 wins on the year. And yet, the C’s are spotting points to Detroit. We appreciate the element of home court advantage resting with Boston, but from first glance the Pistons shouldn’t be an underdog to anyone in the East at the present moment. With this being said, the Celtics were a two-point underdog at home, a few weeks ago and beat the Pistons by a three-pointer. Can Boston strike again? Of course, they can.
Boston has shifted their identity this season. The Celtics lean on their defense which sits top-three in scoring and they are the best in preventing field goals. Boston sits in the top-four in opponent field goal percentage and opponent field goals made. The recipe is simple: frustrate Detroit and let the environment play the role of the sixth man. Celtics win and cover.
Mavericks vs Jazz best bet: Jazz +105 (ML)
Odds available at Fliff Sportsbook at time of publishing.
This Mavericks have quietly been making a name for themselves as of recent. After starting off the season 5-11, the Mavs have won five of their last six and knocked off some reputable names while doing so: Houston, Miami, and Denver. Against the Jazz, Dallas has also won four of the last five. On paper, this is a spot for the Mavericks to roll and keep the mojo working. But the line suggests that the Mavericks are in for a dog fight.
Utah just knocked off Memphis the last time it took the hardwood, but no one is going to bat an eye at that. The point we are trying to make is that the Jazz are no pushover. Moreover, Dallas on the road has struggled. The Mavs are 3-6 outside of the Big D while Utah is just under .500 at home despite being 9-15 on the year. Add in the fact that Dallas has held the upper hand in recent times against the Notes and the math is simple – under more balanced circumstances Utah would be favored here. This is the perfect time to take Utah at plus money.
Rockets vs Nuggets best bet: Rockets -105 (ML)
Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing.
Houston has fallen out of the market’s good graces. Yes, the Rockets are 16-6 but they struggled to get past the ailing Clippers on Thursday and lost at Dallas outright as a 6.5-point favorite five days before. Against a premium side like the Nuggets, the Rockets look like they are in for a long night though Denver is spotting a very short number to the guests. This is an old case of perception versus reality.
However, there is one thing that Houston does better than anyone else: rebound. The Rockets are the best team on the glass in the NBA, bar none. Against a team like the Nuggets who are renowned for their physicality and prowess in the interior, this is key. However, Denver has won the last three meetings and covered while doing so. The market will be quick to the point that out but the Nuggets were actually the underdog in two of those wins. In the most recent victory against Houston in November, Denver had to shoot 53% from the field to beat the Rockets. However, H-Town got off 23 more shots, outrebounded the Nuggets as expected, and didn’t turn the ball over more either. It was simply a matter of Denver being precise with their shots and cashing in, which at the level of success they enjoyed is as much the high-end of variance as anything else. Not this time. Houston for the win.
Grizzlies vs Clippers best bet: Under 227.5 (-110)
Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing.
What are we going to do with these two? Typically, Grizzlies and Clippers have playoff connotations but not this time. Los Angeles and Memphis are two of the NBA’s underwhelmers in the early going, thus far. Both teams have combined for 17 wins and neither side are the benchmark of consistency. We are not going to pick a side here, instead we are going to focus on what we know is the most pressing issue: offense. Neither Memphis nor Los Angeles can string together production consistently over the course of several nights. Seldom do you see either side get out of the 110’s in total points scored. This plays perfectly into the Over/Under.
We are going Under. Why? Because Memphis relies on their defense to win games. The Grizzlies are 6-0 SU when they hold their opponents to under 107 points. The Clippers meanwhile have scored less than 115 points or less in seven of their last ten games. Winning just once. This could be perhaps even played as a correlated parlay with Memphis as a side and the Under as the total, but the point we are trying to make is that this game has Under written all over it. The point spread of -3.5 implies this will be a close game and if that be the case, the Grizzlies will have a chance to win. If they do that, it’s because of all of what mentioned above unfolds. The Clippers won’t be able to score at a prolific rate and the Grizzlies will bank on that. Either way, that makes the Under here, the sharp move.
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