Best NBA Bets Today: Odds & Picks for every game on Monday, December 29

Napier Montgomery

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College football handicapper for Pickswise, specializing in college football, soccer and college basketball. Much prefer betting on the smaller/forgotten games than the big matchups, where the lines are a lot more vulnerable. PhD in Victorian Literature, putting my skills of the written word to the test with betting analysis.

Bucks vs Hornets best bet: Over 228.5 (-110)

Odds available at Caesar’s Sportsbook at time of publishing.

This is a defense is optional game in every sense of the term. A high-220s number doesn’t demand a crazy track meet. One competitive game with normal pace and efficiency can push this over: think both teams in the 110–115 range which is tenable for both sides. The key risk to an under—random hot shooting—actually favors us. With two suspect defenses and enough offensive skill on the floor, it’s easy trust the over than bank on either team stringing together stops. Milwaukee has the better defense and even then, they sit middle of the pack in points against (116 ppg). A total of 228.5 only needs a reasonably efficient, competitive game to clear. Given mediocre at best defensive metrics on both sides and the likely second-chance scoring that accompanies, the over is the most logical way to attack this contest.

Suns vs Wizards best bet: Suns -10.5 (-110)

Odds available at Bet365 Sportsbook at time of publishing.

Spotting a big tag on the road seems counterintuitive. Moreover, we would be inclined to suggest that, even with the Wizards being the benefactor of such a spot. However, Phoenix is clearly the more talented, deeper team, even with Mark Williams suspended due to a scuffle with Pelicans Guard Jose Alvarado. The Wizards’ recent two-win run against Toronto and Memphis is encouraging, but they’re still a bottom-tier roster missing multiple rotation players. Washington’s offense remains turnover-prone and can vanish in the half court—bad news against Booker and a physical Suns defense. And The Wizards, they are the worst in causing turnovers, so every element of variance is tilted against them here. Phoenix is favored by double digits because it owns the key matchup edges: defense, possession optimization, efficiency, and rebounding. All are the recipe for a rout. Bet it accordingly.

Magic vs Raptors best bet: Magic -1.5 (-110)

Odds available at Caesar’s Sportsbook at time of publishing.

The line doesn’t make any sense. The Magic have played losing basketball on the road this season while the Raptors are curating hosting duties up in the Great White North. Surely with home court presence and the slightly better record, Toronto should be favored here. But they are not. Add in the fact that the Raps have won the last three against the Magic and the number seems all the more suspicious. A team playing winning basketball at home with a head-to-head edge catching plus money? It’s either a gift or a trap. We’ll side with the latter. The Magic bring a sturdy defensive profile and strong rebounding presence, while their offense has quietly improved by generating cleaner looks. The Magic are used to winning with physicality and structure, which travels well. That is the real reason why they are favored here and they’ll prove it too. Lay the bucket.

Nuggets vs Heat best bet: Under 245 (-110)

Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing.

The number assumes four quarters of elite shot-making from both teams. Sure, Miami is capable of scoring, but they still prefer a more deliberate, physical style—especially in big games. Denver can play fast, but they’re also completely comfortable grinding teams down. High totals like this one are extremely fragile. This is especially true with a tight point spread like this one with the Heat taking back less than a three-pointer. That says this will be a game of possessions. What does that ultimately look like? Careful possessions, strategic timeouts, and fewer rushed shots. It also translates to a slower pace of basketball. All of which correlates to the under. This doesn’t have to be ugly—just “normal efficiency” instead of video-game numbers as prognosticated.

Read our full Nuggets vs Heat prediction

Warriors vs Nets best bet: Nets +135 (ML)

Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing.

The Warriors are road-weary, turnover-prone, and on a back-to-back, on the heels of a game that went to overtime last night in Toronto. Golden State’s name brand is doing more of the heavy lifting here than anything else. The Nets have quietly been ascending. Brooklyn is 7–3 in December with the best defensive rating of any team this month. Brooklyn has also picked up some noteworthy scalps too, including Minnesota, Toronto, Philadelphia, and Chicago to list a couple. Michael Porter Jr. has been on a tear, and Cam Thomas just returned with a 30-point outing. These are pieces that can disrupt the Warriors’ offensive aspirations. But none of that is weighted by optics. Brooklyn’s status as a perennial bottom-feeder and their 10-17 record overall keeps them off the radar. Nevertheless, the price here suggests that the Nets are very much a threat and this is a premium spot to back them. Forget the points, we are going to move in hard on Brooklyn. Nets outright.

Read our full Warriors vs Nets prediction

Knicks vs Pelicans best bet: Under 244 (-110)

Odds available at Bet365 Sportsbook at time of publishing.

Another total that assumes a high-octane scoring environment because New York has been in some close games with fireworks recently against Cleveland, Atlanta, and Miami. But the key there is that those teams can actually score. The Pelicans are struggling at 8–25, now missing Jose Alvarado after his suspension for two games, thanks to his scuffle with Mark Williams when the Pelicans squared off Phoenix. Missing a point guard and key piece hurts pace and spark. The Pels already struggle and the Knicks could even clamp them down with Alvarado on the floor. If New Orleans’ offense bogs down further, the Knicks can control tempo and bleed clock. The Knicks after all have bigger fish to fry with a road trip to San Antonio as their next assignment. The ingredients mentioned make the under more appealing than trusting both teams to sustain explosive scoring.

Timberwolves vs Bulls best bet: Bulls +180 (ML)

Odds available at Caesars Sportsbook at time of publishing.

This reads as a number that is quite soft, if you think about it. Minnesota remains one of the powers in the Western Conference but recently they have shown chinks in the armor with losses against Brooklyn and at Denver. Not too long ago, they also fell to the Grizzlies. What are we trying to say? Minnesota seems to have a knack for playing down to the level of their competition and the line here is a warning of that. Chicago despite embarking on a tumultuous November has steadied the ship. The Bulls won five straight heading into Saturday’s contest with divisional rival Milwaukee before they saw their winning streak come to an end. If we were to play this by virtue of profile and records alone, the Wolves look easy here. But that’s the problem. Chicago plays a better brand of basketball overall at home and this iteration of Chicago can certainly clip Minnesota. Chicago outright.

Hawks vs Thunder best bet: Hawks +16.5 (-110)

Odds available at Caesars Sportsbook at time of publishing.

Another absurd number posted next to the Thunder insiginia. OKC is excellent, but this price is enormous in the NBA, particularly against a Hawks team that can score. The Thunder often protect leads with controlled play rather than sprinting for 30-point wins, which makes backdoor covers more likely. Atlanta’s offense has enough punch to keep this somewhat competitive even if they defend poorly. In a league of tight margins and late variance, grabbing this many points with a capable scoring team is the sharper side. This is an academic wager as much as anything else we can infer from this spot.

Cavaliers vs Spurs best bet: Cavaliers +135 (ML)

Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing.

The narrative is simple: The Spurs are 23–8, rolling, Wembanyama looks like the next face of the NBA, and the supporting cast can go off too when it feels like it. Just ask De’Aaron Fox about that. Cleveland meanwhile plays losing basketball on the road on they are a game just over .500. For San Antonio, this should be a snack then, right? The short tag next to San Antonio says otherwise. But if you are ready to put your money behind the Cavs, you may stop in your tracks when you remember the Christmas Day meltdown that saw New York escape with a win despite Cleveland leading by 17. Parlay that with an uninspiring loss at Houston on Saturday and we go back to the initial idea: Cleveland looks like an easy mark here. However, the Cavs have owned this series and the fact that they are a small underdog in this tilt suggests that they are primed to make their presence felt yet again. Cavs pull the upset.

Read our full Cavaliers vs Spurs prediction

Pacers vs Rockets best bet: Pacers +15 (-110)

Odds available at Caesars Sportsbook at time of publishing.

This is a “plug your nose and play” kind of position. We know Houston is one of the elite teams in the NBA, they have been making statements since Christmas Day. But that’s the whole problem. The Rockets’ stock is on the sharp rise while Indiana’s remains firmly in the dirt. Similar to our take on the Hawks against the Thunder, the number is simply too steep. Covering this kind of lumber requires four quarters of clinical mastery by Space City. Indeed, they are capable of such things but backing Houston here is paying a tax to do so. If Houston is up 20 in the fourth quarter, a late junk-time run opens the backdoor. That is always the risk that comes with spotting big numbers like this. Grab the points.

Read our full Pacers vs Rockets prediction

Mavericks vs Trailblazers best bet: Under 234 (-110)

Odds available at Caesars Sportsbook at time of publishing.

Blazers games have been Under machines lately, with improved defense and deliberate half-court offense. Dallas struggles to find efficient scoring and that may be enhanced in a hostile road environment like Portland’s. Everything about this game says rock fight. Portland will prefer to play a slower, more physical game with fewer possessions and the Mavericks don’t have the offensive consistency to dictate otherwise. Rather than picking a side in a tight matchup, finding value in the total is more conducive since the variables are favorable for the under. Dallas for what it is worth has only broken the 115-point threshold once in their last five games. The same trend applies to Rip City. If both offenses are pedestrian, this game stays well under the 234.