March Madness? Yeah, we know. It’s just around the corner. But if you are craving a basketball fix tonight, the NBA has got you covered. The slate features a 8-game buffet filled headlined by a collision between two of the game’s all-time greats. LeBron James and the Los Angeles Lakers travel to H-Town to square off with Kevin Durant and the Houston Rockets. Tip-off is set for 9:30 PM ET and the game will be televised on Peacock. After that, two Western Conference powers collide when the Spurs meet with the Clippers on Peacock for the 10:00 PM tip-off. You can find our NBA picks for all of today’s matchups, along with EVERY GAME this season. But for now, here are our expert NBA best bets for each of today’s 8 games on Monday, March 16.
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Warriors vs Wizards NBA best bet: Under 232 (-110)
Odds available at FanDuel at time of publishing.
There are too many variables in play to approach this contest any other way. The Warriors style of offense is boom or bust on most nights and Washington? Well the Wizards, they are unreliable in virtually every facet. That includes offense.
In order for the Over to cash here, Golden State has to go off (which can easily happen but it still relies on three-point shooting to be efficient) or the Wizards have to sustain offense. There are too many question marks with both here to safely justify taking the Over. If the Wizards throw up a clanger on offense and fail to break 100 (which can happen), Golden State has to score over 130 to get the Over home. That’s a reach. Take the Under.
Magic vs Hawks NBA best bet: Magic ML (+120)
Odds available at Dabble at time of publishing.
The Magic’s defense and half-court discipline help slow games and reduce scoring runs, which makes it difficult for short favorites to create separation. Atlanta performs best in faster, rhythm-driven contests, but Orlando’s physical style can disrupt that tempo.
When a team like Orlando can inhibit pace and force longer possessions, that allows the game to be played on their terms. Atlanta’s offense can generate scoring bursts, but it can also stall if early shots don’t fall. The Magic have the wherewithal to mitigate scoring while also benefitting from the fact that their style compresses games naturally. Defensive teams that limit transition opportunities tend to keep margins tight even when trailing which means they will always be in position to threaten the Birds. Grabbing the Magic at plus money with the more defensively stable team provides tremendous value.
Suns vs Celtics NBA best bet: Under 213.5 (-110)
Odds available at FanDuel at time of publishing.
Boston enters as a sizable home favorite (-9), and the total reflects the expectation of a controlled, defensive game. Lower totals combined with larger spreads often signal that the favorite is expected to dictate tempo rather than engage in a shootout. Boston’s defensive discipline has been a defining feature this season. When the Celtics impose their defensive structure, scoring becomes a premium.
Phoenix’s path to competitiveness involves playing their brand of basketball. The Suns also like to mix it up and get physical. The Suns are an enterprise that lead with their defense too. Thus, it is in Phoenix’s interest for scoring to be culled and that’s key. Even moderate scoring droughts can have a significant impact when totals are already compressed. If both teams spend extended stretches operating in the half court, the Under becomes the academic play.
Trailblazers vs Nets NBA best bet: Nets +9.5 (-110)
Odds available at bet365 at time of publishing.
Is Rip City justified at this price? They are 14-20 SU on the road and a team that is not exactly known for controlling contests with their defense, while their offense has many unknowns of their own. To put this more bluntly, Portland is not the kind of team you want to spot a heavy tag with on the road against anyone. That includes Brooklyn.
Portland’s reliance on perimeter scoring also introduces volatility, increasing the chances of scoring droughts that prevent sustained separation. Brooklyn doesn’t need to outperform the Blazers, it only needs to remain competitive enough for the math to work in its favor. And the one thing that Brooklyn does well? Contest shots, which is bad news for the Blazers. This is a nightmare set-up to back the heavy favorite.
Grizzlies vs Bulls NBA best bet: Grizzlies +6 (-110)
Odds available at FanDuel at time of publishing.
The total hovering around 243 is the key piece of the puzzle. Games projected to reach that scoring range almost always feature elevated pace and shot volume, which tends to benefit underdogs. More possessions mean more volatility, and volatility makes it harder for favorites to maintain comfortable separation.
Chicago also hasn’t shown the type of defensive consistency required to protect large leads in high-tempo games. The Bulls are capable offensively, but they rarely control games in a way that suppresses opponent scoring for extended stretches. That’s actually one of the Bulls’ fatal flaws. Meanwhile, the Grizzlies have enough offensive stability to stay attached to the number while the game swings back and forth. In a matchup where both teams are comfortable trading offense and the spread requires Chicago to maintain control for most of the night, the value sits with taking the points. Memphis can win this game outright.
Mavericks vs Pelicans NBA best bet: Mavericks +8.5 (-110)
Odds available at bet365 at time of publishing.
This is another example of taking the points as the prudent move in a conducive setting. With the total sitting near 240, the match projects as another barnburner set to have plenty of possessions and scoring opportunities. Once again, this makes the underdog the equitable play. This is especially the case when we consider how many points we are getting with the Mavs.
High-tempo environments make large spreads fragile because offensive runs can quickly erase deficits. New Orleans may be the better team, but that would be by incremental margins. The price fails to account for how the close gap is between Dallas and New Orleans. Asking the Pelicans to maintain a near double-digit margin in a blistering offensive-oriented matchup is a difficult requirement. Take the points and let the chips fall where they may.
Lakers vs Rockets NBA best bet: Lakers ML (+126)
Odds available at FanDuel at time of publishing.
Moving on from the spectacle for King James versus KD, these two sides have nearly identical records and this is a true toss-up, if there every was an example of one. However, since the tilt is in Houston, there is a small home-court premium tacked onto the Rockets. If we factor this in, the Lakers have the value as a plus-money pooch. Plain and simple.
Houston at home is a fair favorite. But fair is not the same as finding value. This is one of those games that will likely be settled on the final possession. And if we go back to a premise that we often preach, holding a ticket at above-even money in this kind of spot bodes the most upside. Lakers or nothing.
Spurs vs Clippers NBA best bet: Clippers +9.5 (-110)
Odds available at Dabble at time of publishing.
The Clippers are not being priced like a team that can offer much resistance, yet they are exactly the type of team we would want to be catching nearly double digits with. The line is asking San Antonio to control the game and keep pressing. That is possible, but not automatic, especially in Los Angeles where the Clips try to fight opponents in the phone booth.
Los Angeles plays a brand of basketball where they slow things down and enjoy the grind. Naturally, the Spurs can match that, but if they do, laying this kind of lumber becomes a liability. The game innately will shrink because the Clippers limit possessions and bleed clock. Unless, the Clippers have an appalling night shooting or San Antonio can’t miss, this is a hard number to cover for the Spurs.
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